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1.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 33(1): 107487, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37980846

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of two functional scales- Modified Rankin Scale (m-RS) and Modified Katz Index (m-Katz Index) on long-term mortality in a stroke cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Among 760 stroke survivors (median age: 66 (IQR:56-75), 56.4 % women) m-Katz Index and m-RS scales applied at 1 and 6 months after stroke, were investigated in relation to 12-years of all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed, and time-varying covariate Cox regression models were fitted to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) in all sample and by sex. The prognostic ability of the fitted models was computed for each model by six different measures. RESULTS: After 12 years of follow-up (median survival time: 7.3 years), 311 participants died. Overall survival curves show lower survival rates among those with the highest levels of disability/dependence (all log-rank p-values <0.0001). These findings were confirmed in all regression models for both sexes, particularly in men who had higher levels of dependence on Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) by m-Katz Index and severe disability by m-RS and presented the highest HR of dying (HR: 3.34 (95 %CI: 2.27-4.92) and HR: 4.94 (95 % CI: 3.15-7.75), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Both the m-Katz Index and the m-RS scale were good predictors of long-term mortality, which is of importance for guiding the functional rehabilitation of stroke patients. Besides, high levels of disability and dependence were implicated with high mortality risks, regardless of sex.


Assuntos
Atividades Cotidianas , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Brasil , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/terapia , Sobreviventes , Avaliação da Deficiência
2.
Environ Monit Assess ; 195(9): 1104, 2023 Aug 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37642730

RESUMO

One of the policies adopted to reduce vehicular emissions is subway network expansion. This work fitted interrupted regression models to investigate the effects of the inauguration of subway stations on the mean, trend, and seasonality of the NO, NO2, NOx, and PM10 local concentrations. The regions investigated in the city of São Paulo (Brazil) were Pinheiros, Butantã, and St. Amaro. In Pinheiros, after the inauguration of the subway station, there were downward trends for all pollutants. However, these trends were not significantly different from the trends observed before. In Butantã, only regarding NO, there was a significant reduction and seasonal change after the subway station's inauguration. In St. Amaro, no trend in the PM10 concentration was noted. The absence of other transportation and land use policies in an integrative way to the subway network expansion may be responsible for the low air quality improvement. This study highlights that the expansion of the subway network must be integrated with other policies to improve local air quality.


Assuntos
Poluentes Ambientais , Ferrovias , Brasil , Monitoramento Ambiental , Meios de Transporte
3.
Sleep Breath ; 26(3): 1437-1445, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34750722

RESUMO

PURPOSE: This study was aimed to determine the magnitude and predictors of self-reported short/long sleep duration (SDUR) reclassifications using objective measurements. METHODS: Adult participants from the ELSA-Brasil study performed self-reported SDUR, 7-day wrist actigraphy, and a portable sleep study. We explored two strategies of defining self-reported SDUR reclassification: (1) short and long SDUR defined by <6 and ≥8h, respectively; (2) reclassification using a large spectrum of SDUR categories (<5, 5-6, 7-8, 8-9, and >9 h). RESULTS: Data from 2036 participants were used in the final analysis (43% males; age: 49±8 years). Self-reported SDUR were poorly correlated (r=0.263) and presented a low agreement with actigraphy-based total sleep time. 58% of participants who self-reported short SDUR were reclassified into the reference (6-7.99 h) or long SDUR groups using actigraphy data. 88% of participants that self-reported long SDUR were reclassified into the reference and short SDUR. The variables independently associated with higher likelihood of self-reported short SDUR reclassification included insomnia (3.5-fold), female (2.5-fold), higher sleep efficiency (1.35-fold), lowest O2 saturation (1.07-fold), higher wake after sleep onset (1.08-fold), and the higher number of awakening (1.05-fold). The presence of hypertension was associated with a 3.4-fold higher chance of self-reported long SDUR reclassification. Analysis of five self-reported SDUR categories revealed that the more extreme is the SDUR, the greater the self-reported SDUR reclassification. CONCLUSION: In adults, we observed a significant rate of short/long SDUR reclassifications when comparing self-reported with objective data. These results underscore the need to reappraise subjective data use for future investigations addressing SDUR.


Assuntos
Actigrafia , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polissonografia , Autorrelato , Sono
4.
Echocardiography ; 35(9): 1351-1361, 2018 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29886570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Atherosclerotic in carotids can determinate a poor prognosis in individuals after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Thus, we aimed to evaluate mortality associated to carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) in the participants from the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) study. METHODS: Carotid intima media thickness was evaluated by B-mode ultrasound for mortality risk assessment in 180 days, 1-3 years. We performed Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox logistic regression models to evaluate all-cause, cardiovascular (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality by CIMT tertiles in crude, age and sex- and multivariate models. RESULTS: Among 644 ACS individuals (median age 61-year old), we observed a median CIMT of 0.74 mm. Besides aging, low education, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia were associated with the 3rd tertile of CIMT values. During 3 years of follow-up, we observed 65 deaths (10.1%), crude case-fatality rates were progressively higher across the CIMT tertiles in all periods, being the highest rates observed in participants with the highest CIMT (3rd tertile) (180-day: 6.6% vs 1-year: 9.0% vs 2-year:12.3% vs 3-year:16.0%, P < .05). In crude analyses, lowest survival rates (all-cause, CVD and CHD, p log-rank values <0.005) and higher hazard ratios of dying for all-cause and CVD (from 1 to 3 years) and for CHD (2 and 3 years) were observed. However, we kept no significant results after adjusting for age. CONCLUSION: Carotid intima media thickness was mainly influenced by aging. CIMT was not a good predictor of all-cause, CVD or CHD mortality in the ERICO study.


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/mortalidade , Espessura Intima-Media Carotídea/estatística & dados numéricos , Sistema de Registros , Idoso , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
5.
Cerebrovasc Dis ; 44(3-4): 232-239, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28848194

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Stroke prognosis is related to the multimorbidity profile. Moreover, performing an individual evaluation of most common cerebrovascular risk factors (CVRF) not always identifies patients with poor prognosis. Thus, we decided to evaluate multimorbidity profile, focusing on the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) validated by Goldstein for ischaemic stroke (IS) patients, a score that measures a burden of comorbidities and its related mortality in the long-term survival of the EMMA Study (Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity). METHODS: Nine hundred fifty-nine individuals (median age 70 years) had validated data on the diagnosis of IS, main CVRF and clinical comorbidities pre index event such as atrial fibrillation (AF), stroke recurrence, diabetes, hypertension, heart failure and cancer. CCI modified by Goldstein was calculated, which includes 17 clinical conditions with scores ranging from 1 to 6 (0-31 points). Survival analyses were performed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox logistic regression models (cumulative hazard ratio [HR] with [95% CI]) for all-cause mortality at 180 days, and every 3 years up to 9-year follow-up. Mortality analyzes were performed by CCI categorized according to weight added to comorbidities (Reference group: zero, moderate: 1, severe: 2 and very severe: ≥3 points). We also tested the modification effect of AF and stroke recurrence including these conditions in the CCI. RESULTS: The overall survival rate was 47% (508 deaths/959). The worst survival (577, 95% CI 381-773 days) and the highest risk of death after stroke were observed in the very severe CCI group (HR 3.18; 95% CI 2.16-4.69) up to 9 years. The inclusion of previous AF and stroke in the CCI slightly increased the risk of death for very severe CCI (HR 3.27; 95% CI 2.07-5.18). CONCLUSIONS: A high burden of comorbidities represented an independent predictor of poor prognosis increasing the risk of dying by 2 to 3 times among IS up to 9 years in the EMMA study. The inclusion of other CVRF such as AF and stroke recurrence slightly modified all-cause mortality risk.


Assuntos
Isquemia Encefálica/epidemiologia , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Isquemia Encefálica/diagnóstico , Isquemia Encefálica/mortalidade , Brasil/epidemiologia , Distribuição de Qui-Quadrado , Feminino , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Multimorbidade , Análise Multivariada , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Recidiva , Fatores de Risco , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Fatores de Tempo
6.
Gynecol Endocrinol ; 33(5): 359-362, 2017 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28277134

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate Ki-67 antigen expression in mammary epithelium of female rats in persistent estrus treated with anastrozole. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-eight Wistar-Hanover female rats in persistent estrus induced by subcutaneous injection of 1.25 mg of testosterone propionate in the second day of life were randomly divided into two groups, control and experimental, with 14 animals each. The animals of control group received only the vehicle (propyleneglycol) and the animals of group experimental received 0.125 mg daily of anastrozole by gavage during 28 days. After 28 days of treatment, all animals were sacrificed and the first pair of abdominal-inguinal mammary glands was removed and fixed in 10% buffered formalin to investigate Ki-67 antigen expression by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: The mean percentage of Ki-67-stained nuclei per 500 cells in the mammary epithelium was 76.97 ± 0.76 and 14.44 ± 2.02 [mean ± standard error of the mean (SEM)] in the control and experimental groups, respectively (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Anastrozole treatment significantly reduced Ki-67 expression in the mammary epithelium of rats in persistent estrus.


Assuntos
Estro/efeitos dos fármacos , Antígeno Ki-67/metabolismo , Glândulas Mamárias Animais/efeitos dos fármacos , Glândulas Mamárias Animais/metabolismo , Nitrilas/farmacologia , Triazóis/farmacologia , Anastrozol , Animais , Proliferação de Células/efeitos dos fármacos , Epitélio/efeitos dos fármacos , Epitélio/metabolismo , Estro/metabolismo , Feminino , Ratos , Ratos Wistar , Testosterona/farmacologia
7.
Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol ; 35(9): 2054-9, 2015 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26183615

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: There is little information about how much traditional cardiovascular risk factors explain common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) variance. We aimed to study to which extent CCA-IMT values are determined by traditional risk factors and which commonly used measurements of blood pressure, glucose metabolism, lipid profile, and adiposity contribute the most to this determination in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) cohort baseline. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed 9792 individuals with complete data and CCA-IMT measurements. We built multiple linear regression models using mean left and right CCA-IMT as the dependent variable. All models were stratified by sex. We also analyzed individuals stratified by 10-year coronary heart disease risk and, in separate, those with no traditional risk factors. Main models' R(2) varied between 0.141 and 0.373. The major part of the explained variance in CCA-IMT was because of age and race. Indicators of blood pressure, lipid profile, and adiposity that most frequently composed the best models were pulse pressure, low-density lipoprotein/high-density lipoprotein ratio, and neck circumference. The association between neck circumference and CCA-IMT persisted significant even after further adjustment for vessel sizes and body mass index. Indicators of glucose metabolism had smaller contribution. CONCLUSIONS: We found that >60% of CCA-IMT were not explained by demographic and traditional cardiovascular risk factors, which highlights the need to study novel risk factors. Pulse pressure, low-density lipoprotein/high-density lipoprotein ratio, and neck circumference were the most consistent contributors.


Assuntos
Aterosclerose/diagnóstico por imagem , Artéria Carótida Primitiva/diagnóstico por imagem , Espessura Intima-Media Carotídea , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Aterosclerose/epidemiologia , Índice de Massa Corporal , Brasil/epidemiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Distribuição por Sexo , População Urbana
8.
Gynecol Endocrinol ; 32(6): 453-6, 2016 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27199299

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of raloxifene and tamoxifen on Ki-67 antigen expression in the vaginal epithelium of castrated rats. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty-nine virgin, adult, castrated female Wistar-Hannover rats were randomly divided into three groups: Group I (control, n = 13), Group II (raloxifene, n = 13) and Group III (tamoxifen, n = 13). After confirmation of their hypoestrogenic state, the rats were given 0.5 ml of propylene glycol (vehicle), 750 µg of raloxifene or 250 µg of tamoxifen, respectively, by gavage, for 30 days. On the 31st day, the rats were euthanized and their vaginas removed and fixed in 10% buffered formalin for of Ki-67 immunohistochemical evaluation. Data were analyzed using Levene's test and Tukey's method (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Mean Ki-67 expression in groups I, II and III was 27 ± 2.6, 32.3 ± 1.9 and 43.7 ± 3.5, respectively. In Group III (tamoxifen), there was a greater proportion of stained cells compared to Groups I and II (p < 0.0003), with no statistically significant difference between Groups I and II (p = 0.3626). CONCLUSIONS: The present results show that tamoxifen significantly increased cell proliferation in the vaginal epithelium of the castrated rats and no difference between the raloxifene and control groups.


Assuntos
Proliferação de Células/efeitos dos fármacos , Células Epiteliais/efeitos dos fármacos , Antígeno Ki-67/efeitos dos fármacos , Cloridrato de Raloxifeno/farmacologia , Moduladores Seletivos de Receptor Estrogênico/farmacologia , Tamoxifeno/farmacologia , Vagina/efeitos dos fármacos , Animais , Feminino , Ovariectomia , Cloridrato de Raloxifeno/administração & dosagem , Ratos , Ratos Wistar , Moduladores Seletivos de Receptor Estrogênico/administração & dosagem , Tamoxifeno/administração & dosagem
9.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 25(3): 618-25, 2016 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26725125

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The influence of poststroke depression on long-term survival is poorly investigated. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the influence of major depression disorder (MDD) on long-term survival in the participants from The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity in Adults (EMMA Study) in São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) cases from the EMMA Study. Baseline and stroke characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated according to MDD assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire, which was applied 30 days after index event and periodically during 1-year follow-up. We performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, as well as crude and multiple Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In this subset of the EMMA Study, we evaluated 164 (85.9%) patients with ischemic stroke and 27 (14.1%) with HS. Among these, overall incidence of MDD was 25.1% during 1 year of follow-up, regardless stroke subtype. The peak rate of major depression postacute event was beyond 1 month. We observed a lower survival rate among individuals who developed poststroke MDD than among those who did not develop this condition after 1 year of follow-up (85.4% versus 96.5%, log rank P = .006). After multiple analysis, we kept a higher risk of all-cause mortality among those who developed MDD compared to participants without MDD (hazard ratio = 4.60, 95% confidence interval = 1.36-15.55, P = .01). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that incident MDD is a potential marker of poor prognosis 1 year after stroke.


Assuntos
Transtorno Depressivo Maior/epidemiologia , Transtorno Depressivo Maior/etiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Escalas de Graduação Psiquiátrica , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Fatores Sexuais , Estatísticas não Paramétricas , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/complicações , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Análise de Sobrevida
10.
Neuroepidemiology ; 42(4): 235-42, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24903570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to determine the cerebrovascular prevalence in a town in the Brazilian Amazon basin and compare the ribeirinhos (riparians) to the urban population in the same municipality. METHODS: From May to October 2011, 6,216 residents over 35 years of age in the town of Coari were interviewed using a screening questionnaire, the Stroke Symptom Questionnaire. Cerebrovascular prevalence rates (PRs) from the door-to-door surveillance were calculated according to the location of the home. RESULTS: Respondent totals were 4,897 in the urban area and 1,028 in the rural area. The crude prevalence of stroke was 6.3% in rural and 3.7% in urban areas with differences maintained after sex and age adjustment. Among stroke cases, the ribeirinhos were those with less access to medical care in comparison to the urban area (32.1 vs. 52.5%, p = 0.01), and a positive association between rural area and no medical care for stroke remained (PR, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71), independently of age, sex, education and functional impairment. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first population-based cerebrovascular prevalence comparison between an urban and a rural population in the Amazon rain forest. The PRs were higher in the ribeirinha compared to the urban population in the same municipality.


Assuntos
Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Brasil , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Floresta Úmida , Saúde da População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Saúde da População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 19(4): 589-97, 2013 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23628462

RESUMO

Pneumonia is most problematic for children in developing countries. In 2010, Brazil introduced a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) to its National Immunization Program. To assess the vaccine's effectiveness for preventing pneumonia, we analyzed rates of hospitalization among children 2-24 months of age who had pneumonia from all causes from January 2005 through August 2011. We used data from the National Hospitalization Information System to conduct an interrupted time-series analysis for 5 cities in Brazil that had good data quality and high PCV10 vaccination coverage. Of the 197,975 hospitalizations analyzed, 30% were for pneumonia. Significant declines in hospitalizations for pneumonia were noted in Belo Horizonte (28.7%), Curitiba (23.3%), and Recife (27.4%) but not in São Paulo and Porto Alegre. However, in the latter 2 cities, vaccination coverage was less than that in the former 3. Overall, 1 year after introduction of PCV10, hospitalizations of children for pneumonia were reduced.


Assuntos
Programas de Imunização/economia , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/economia , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/imunologia , Pneumonia Pneumocócica/prevenção & controle , Vacinação , Brasil/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/administração & dosagem , Pneumonia Pneumocócica/imunologia , Pneumonia Pneumocócica/microbiologia , Streptococcus pneumoniae/isolamento & purificação , População Urbana , Vacinas Conjugadas
12.
Bull World Health Organ ; 91(7): 525-32, 2013 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23825880

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in mortality from respiratory disease in several areas of Latin America between 1998 and 2009. METHODS: The numbers of deaths attributed to respiratory disease between 1998 and 2009 were extracted from mortality data from Argentina, southern Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Paraguay. Robust linear models were then fitted to the rates of mortality from respiratory disease recorded between 2003 and 2009. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2008, rates of mortality from respiratory disease gradually decreased in all age groups in most of the study areas. Among children younger than 5 years, for example, the annual rates of such mortality - across all seven study areas - fell from 56.9 deaths per 100,000 in 1998 to 26.6 deaths per 100,000 in 2008. Over this period, rates of mortality from respiratory disease were generally highest among adults older than 65 years and lowest among individuals aged 5 to 49 years. In 2009, mortality from respiratory disease was either similar to that recorded in 2008 or showed an increase - significant increases were seen among children younger than 5 years in Paraguay, among those aged 5 to 49 years in southern Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay and among adults aged 50 to 64 years in Mexico and Paraguay. CONCLUSION: In much of Latin America, mortality from respiratory disease gradually fell between 1998 and 2008. However, this downward trend came to a halt in 2009, probably as a result of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic.


Assuntos
Infecções Respiratórias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Bases de Dados Factuais , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Modelos Lineares , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto Jovem
13.
BMC Neurol ; 13: 51, 2013 May 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23706067

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis. METHODS: We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from "The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity" (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level). RESULTS: We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype. CONCLUSIONS: For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.


Assuntos
Isquemia Encefálica/mortalidade , Hemorragia Cerebral/mortalidade , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Isquemia Encefálica/complicações , Brasil/epidemiologia , Hemorragia Cerebral/complicações , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/etiologia , Análise de Sobrevida , Taxa de Sobrevida
14.
Biom J ; 54(2): 214-29, 2012 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22522378

RESUMO

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretest-posttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.


Assuntos
Estudos Longitudinais/métodos , Análise de Regressão , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Placa Dentária/microbiologia , Humanos , Higiene Bucal , Software
15.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 21(8): 832-8, 2012 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21705233

RESUMO

Case fatality rate is considered a main determinant of stroke mortality trends. We applied the World Health Organization's Stroke STEPS to identify case fatality rates in a community hospital in Brazil. We evaluated all patients with first-ever stroke seeking acute care at the hospital's emergency ward between April 2006 and December 2008 to verify early and late case fatality according to stroke subtype. We used years of formal education as a surrogate for socioeconomic status. Of 430 first-ever stroke events, 365 (84.9%) were ischemic and 65 (15.1%) were intracerebral hemorrhage. After 1 year, we adjudicated 108 deaths (86 ischemic; 22 hemorrhagic). Age-adjusted case fatality rates for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage were 6.0% v 19.8% at 10 days, 10.6% v 22.1% at 28 days, 17.6% v 29.1% at 6 months, and 21.0% v 31.5% at 1 year. Illiteracy or no formal education was a predictor of death at 6 months (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-13.91) and 1 year (OR, 4.21; 95% CI, 1.45-12.28) in patients with ischemic stroke, as well as at 6 months (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.17-8.70) and 1 year (OR, 3.30; 95% CI, 1.30-8.45) for all stroke patients. Other variables, including previous cardiovascular risk factors and acute medical care, did not change this association to a statistically significant degree. In conclusion, case fatality, particularly up to 6 months, was higher in hemorrhagic stroke, and lack of formal education was associated with increased stroke mortality.


Assuntos
Isquemia Encefálica/mortalidade , Hemorragias Intracranianas/mortalidade , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Isquemia Encefálica/diagnóstico , Brasil/epidemiologia , Distribuição de Qui-Quadrado , Escolaridade , Feminino , Hospitais Comunitários , Humanos , Hemorragias Intracranianas/diagnóstico , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , Prognóstico , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Fatores de Tempo
16.
PLoS One ; 17(8): e0271577, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35947603

RESUMO

Making use of a state space framework, we present a stochastic generalization of the SIRD model, where the mortality, infection, and underreporting rates change over time. A new format to the errors in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead compartments is also presented, that permits reinfection. The estimated trajectories and (out-of-sample) forecasts of all these variables are presented with their confidence intervals. The model only uses as inputs the number of reported cases and deaths, and was applied for the UK from April, 2020 to Sep, 2021 (daily data). The estimated infection rate has shown a trajectory in waves very compatible with the emergence of new variants and adopted social measures. The estimated mortality rate has shown a significant descendant behaviour in 2021, which we attribute to the vaccination program, and the estimated underreporting rate has been considerably volatile, with a downward tendency, implying that, on average, more people are testing than in the beginning of the pandemic. The evolution of the proportions of the population divided into susceptible, infected, recovered and dead groups are also shown with their confidence intervals and forecast, along with an estimation of the amount of reinfection that, according to our model, has become quite significant in 2021. Finally, the estimated trajectory of the effective reproduction rate has proven to be very compatible with the real number of cases and deaths. Its forecasts with confident intervals are also presented.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Previsões , Humanos , Pandemias , Reinfecção , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
17.
Int J Stroke ; 17(1): 48-58, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33527882

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is a predictor of poor prognosis after stroke. AIMS: To evaluate atrial fibrillation and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a stroke cohort with low socioeconomic status, taking into consideration oral anticoagulant use during 12-year follow-up. METHODS: All-cause mortality was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For specific mortality causes, cumulative incidence functions were computed. A logit link function was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% CIs. Full models were adjusted by age, sex, oral anticoagulant use (as a time-dependent variable) and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Of 1121 ischemic stroke participants, 17.8% had atrial fibrillation. Overall, 654 deaths (58.3%) were observed. Survival rate was lower (median days, interquartile range-IQR) among those with atrial fibrillation (531, IQR: 46-2039) vs. non-atrial fibrillation (1808, IQR: 334-3301), p-log rank < 0.0001). Over 12-year follow-up, previous atrial fibrillation was associated with increased mortality: all-cause (multivariable hazard ratios, 1.82; 95% CI: 1.43-2.31) and cardiovascular mortality (multivariable OR, 2.07; 95% CI: 1.36-3.14), but not stroke mortality. In the same multivariable models, oral anticoagulant use was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (oral anticoagulant time-dependent effect: multivariable hazard ratios, 0.47; 95% CI: 0.30-0.50, p = 0.002) and stroke mortality (oral anticoagulant time-dependent effect ≥ 6 months: multivariable OR, 0.09; 95% CI: 0.01-0.65, p-value = 0.02), but not cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with low socioeconomic status, atrial fibrillation was an independent predictor of poor survival, increasing all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk. Long-term oral anticoagulant use was associated with a markedly reduced risk of all-cause and stroke mortality.


Assuntos
Fibrilação Atrial , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Anticoagulantes/uso terapêutico , Fibrilação Atrial/complicações , Fibrilação Atrial/tratamento farmacológico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia
18.
Clinics (Sao Paulo) ; 77: 100013, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35397368

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This analysis describes the protocol of a study with a case-cohort to design to prospectively evaluate the incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in Chronic Inflammatory Disease (CID) participants compared to non-diseased ones. METHODS: A high-risk group for CID was defined based on data collected in all visits on self-reported medical diagnosis, use of medicines, and levels of high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein >10 mg/L. The comparison group is the Aleatory Cohort Sample (ACS): a group with 10% of participants selected at baseline who represent the entire cohort. In both groups, specific biomarkers for DIC, markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, and CVD morbimortality will be tested using weighted Cox. RESULTS: The high-risk group (n = 2,949; aged 53.6 ± 9.2; 65.5% women) and the ACS (n=1543; 52.2±8.8; 54.1% women) were identified. Beyond being older and mostly women, participants in the high-risk group present low average income (29.1% vs. 24.8%, p < 0.0001), higher BMI (Kg/m2) (28.1 vs. 26.9, p < 0.0001), higher waist circumference (cm) (93.3 vs. 91, p < 0.0001), higher frequencies of hypertension (40.2% vs. 34.5%, p < 0.0001), diabetes (20.7% vs. 17%, p = 0.003) depression (5.8% vs. 3.9%, p = 0.007) and higher levels of GlycA a new inflammatory marker (p < 0.0001) compared to the ACS. CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk group selected mostly women, older, lower-income/education, higher BMI, waist circumference, and of hypertension, diabetes, depression, and higher levels of GlycA when compared to the ACS. The strategy chosen to define the high-risk group seems adequate given that multiple sociodemographic and clinical characteristics are compatible with CID.


Assuntos
Aterosclerose , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Hipertensão , Aterosclerose/epidemiologia , Biomarcadores , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Espessura Intima-Media Carotídea , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de Risco
19.
Ann Surg Oncol ; 17(9): 2378-83, 2010 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20177797

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate Ki-67 and Bcl-2 antigen expression in colorectal polyps from women with breast cancer. METHODS: A randomized, controlled study was carried out in 35 women, either with or without breast cancer, who had adenomatous colorectal polyps. The patients were divided into two groups: group A (without breast cancer; control group; n = 17) and group B (with breast cancer; study group; n = 18). Immunohistochemistry was performed on the colorectal polyps to evaluate Ki-67 and Bcl-2 antigen expression. Student's t-test and the chi(2) test were used for the statistical analysis of Ki-67 and Bcl-2 expression, respectively. Statistical significance was established as P < 0.05. RESULTS: The mean percentage of Ki-67-stained nuclei in groups A and B was 36.25 +/- 2.31 and 59.44 +/- 3.34 (+/- SEM), respectively (P < 0.0001), while the percentage of cases with cells expressing Bcl-2 in groups A and B was 23.5 and 77.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, there was greater proliferative activity and greater expression of the antiapoptotic protein Bcl-2 in the colorectal polyps of women with breast cancer.


Assuntos
Polipose Adenomatosa do Colo/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/metabolismo , Colo/metabolismo , Antígeno Ki-67/metabolismo , Proteínas Proto-Oncogênicas c-bcl-2/metabolismo , Reto/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Colonoscopia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Técnicas Imunoenzimáticas , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Taxa de Sobrevida , Resultado do Tratamento
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