Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Iron status in late pregnancy is inversely associated with birth weight in Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: Gestational anaemia (GA) is common in developing countries. This study assessed the relationship of late GA and negative perinatal outcomes in participants recruited in a reference maternity unit of the Caribbean region of Colombia. DESIGN: Prospective analytical birth cohort study. Maternal Hb and serum ferritin (SF) levels were measured. GA was defined as Hb levels <6·82 mmol/l (<11 g/dl), SF depletion as SF levels <12 µg/l. Birth outcomes such as low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth (PB) and small for gestational age (SGA) were examined. SETTING: Mothers in the first stage of labour, living in urban or rural areas of Bolívar, were enrolled in an obstetrical centre located in Cartagena, Colombia. Blood and stool samples were taken prior delivery. Maternal blood count, SF levels and infant anthropometric data were recorded for analysis. PARTICIPANTS: 1218 pregnant women aged 18-42 years and their newborns. RESULTS: Prevalence of GA and SF depletion was 41·6 % and 41·1 %, respectively. GA was positively associated with poverty-related sociodemographic conditions. Prenatal care attendance lowered the risk of PB, LBW and SGA. Birth weight was inversely associated with Hb levels, observing a -36·8 g decrease in newborn weight per 0·62 mmol/l (or 1 g/dl) of maternal Hb. SF depletion, but not anaemia, was associated with PB. SGA outcome showed a significant association with anaemia, but not a significant relationship with SF depletion. CONCLUSIONS: Birth weight and other-related perinatal outcomes are negatively associated with Hb and SF depletion. Prenatal care attendance reduced the risk of negative birth outcomes.

Epidemiological and viral features of a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in an area of the Colombian Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an emerging viral pandemic disease. In the last 6 months, SARS-CoV-2 has caused millions of reported cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. As other world regions, South America has not contained the pandemic's advance since it lacks the hospital and economic capacities. Public health implications of transmission, while the asymptomatic/presymptomatic infection is a critical concern at the current pandemic. OBJECTIVE: Describe the socio-demographic, clinical, and viral features of a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals from the Colombian Caribbean. METHODS: Six hundred eighty-six clinical samples of suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection cases and contacts individuals from several hospital centers in the department of Córdoba, Colombia, were received at our laboratory between April 9th and May 16th, 2020. RNA was extracted using lysis buffers and spin columns. The samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) using commercially available multiplex real-time PCR assay for simultaneous detection of 3 target genes of SARS-CoV-2 (Allplex™, 2019-nCoV assay, Korea). Viral copies quantification was done using a standard curve constructed from seriated dilutions of a SARS-CoV-2 positive control. Statics descriptive methods were used. RESULTS: Thirty-five nasopharyngeal samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection; the average age was 43 (range, 1-95 years). Seventeen of 35 (49%) of the patients showed symptoms. Most of them had a cough, fever, and odynophagia; three of the patients reported having arthralgia. Only two patients required hospitalization. None of the patients had known co-morbidities. RT-qPCR results show that two of the symptomatic patients had significantly higher RNA copies than the rest. Eighteen of 35 (51%) individuals were asymptomatic, and the average age was 30 (range, 6-61 years). Four asymptomatic individuals showed a higher copy than some symptomatic patients; nonetheless, the average of RNA copies 8.26 × 1010 was lower than the symptomatic. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that asymptomatic patients may develop infections with a high number of RNA copies. Since a considerable percentage of infections may be asymptomatic/presymptomatic, enhanced testing approaches may be needed to detect these persons. Due the occurrence of a large proportion of infections being a result from transmission originated in asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals, public health interventions in Colombia should be based on two steps: a massive molecular screening, and viral load quantification. Finally, a remarkable issue in our study is the average age of symptomatic and asymptomatic groups (43 and 30 respectively) which may be important because of the economic impact that has been caused by the coronavirus pandemic and may be probably the cause of the reduced lethality observed in the country and the department at the time of this study.

Effectiveness of a prevention program in the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes in a low-income population from Colombia: a real-world propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are among the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) but evidence in these contexts regarding the effectiveness of primary prevention interventions taking into account patient adherence is scarce. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a cardiovascular risk management program (De Todo Corazón - DTC program) in the incidence of the first cardiovascular outcome (CVO) in a low-income population from the Caribbean region of Colombia using adherence as the main variable of exposure. METHODS: A retrospective propensity score-matched cohort study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of hypertension (HTA), diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), or dyslipidemia affiliated to the DTC program between 2013 and 2018 were considered as the study population. Patients with 30 to 76 years, without a history of CVOs, and with more than 6 months of exposure to the program were included. The main outcome of interest was the reduction in the risk of CVOs (stroke, myocardial infarction, or congestive heart failure) based on the adherence to the intervention (attendance to medical appointments with health care professionals and the control of cardiovascular risk factors). Kaplan Meier curves and propensity score-matched Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between adherence and the incidence of CVOs. RESULTS: A total of 52,507 patients were included. After propensity score matching, a sample of 35,574 patients was analyzed. Mean (SD) exposure time was 1.97 (0.92) years. Being adherent to the program was associated to a 85.4, 71.9, 32.4 and 78.9% risk reduction of in the low (HR 0.14; 95% CI 0.05-0.37; p < 0.001), medium (HR 0.28; 95% CI 0.21-0.36; p < 0.001), high-risk with DM (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.43-1.04; p = 0.075) and hig-risk without DM (HR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09-0.48; p < 0.001) categories, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The DTC program is effective in the reduction of the risk of CVOs. Population-based interventions may be an important strategy for the prevention of CVOs in underserved populations in the context of LMICs. A more exhaustive emphasis on the control of diabetes mellitus should be considered in these strategies.

First cardiovascular event in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus of a cardiovascular risk management program of a poor Colombian population: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: According to several studies in population of high-income countries (HIC), patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) have a considerably higher risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, it is not clear if the magnitude of this association can be widespread in other populations. The objective of this study was to determine the independent association between Type 2 DM and first cardiovascular event in Colombian Caribbean poor population with no records of previous cardiovascular events reported. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the individual records from the hospitalizations database of 64,668 patients of cardiovascular risk management program from July 2014 to December 2015. We used a propensity score matching cohort analysis for this study. The Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for the cardiovascular events related endpoints and matched Cox-regression analysis to estimate associations of a history of Type 2 DM with cardiovascular outcomes during 1.5 years of follow-up. A formal sensitivity analysis using The Breslow-Day and Tarone Homogeneity tests was conducted. RESULTS: Out of 56,351 patients with no previous cardiovascular events records, 19,368 (34.4%) patients were found to suffer Type 2 DM. Using propensity scores for Type 2 DM, we gathered a cohort of 18,449 pairs of patients with and without Type 2 DM who were balanced on 22 baseline characteristics. A first cardiovascular event occurred in 650 (3.5%) and 403 (2.1%) matched patients with and without Type 2 DM, respectively, during 1.5 years of follow-up. Type 2 DM was associated with first cardiovascular event (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.43-2.00; p = 0.000), AMI (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.45-2.20; p = 0.000) and stroke (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.18-2.02; p = 0.001). Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for the association of Type 2 DM with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause hospitalization were 1.36 (1.21-1.53; p < 0.001), 1.52 (1.12-2.08; p 0.004), and 1.20 (1.21-1.53; p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: Type 2 DM resulted to be a significant independent risk factor for first cardiovascular event in Colombian Caribbean poor population with no previous records of cardiovascular events.

A comprehensive care program achieves high remission rates in rheumatoid arthritis in a middle-income setting. Experience of a Center of Excellence in Colombia.

Management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in many Latin-American countries is impaired by fragmentation and scarce healthcare provision, resulting in obstacles to access, diagnosis, and treatment, and consequently in poor health outcomes. The aim of this study is to propose a comprehensive care program as a model to provide healthcare to RA patients receiving synthetic DMARDs in a Colombian setting by describing the model and its results. Health outcomes were prospectively collected in all patients entering the program. By protocol, patients are followed up during 24 months using a treat-to-target strategy with a patient-centered care (PCC) model, meaning that a patient should be seen by rheumatologist, physical and occupational therapist, physiatrist, nutritionist and psychologist, at least three times a year according to disease activity by DAS28. Otherwise, patients receive standard therapy. The incidence of remission and low disease activity (LDA) was calculated by periods of follow-up. A total of 968 patients entered the program from January 2015 to December 2016; 80.2% were women. At baseline, 41% of patients were in remission, 17% in LDA and 42% in MDS/SDA. At 24 months of follow-up, 66% were in remission, 18% in LDA and only 16% in MDS/SDA. Regarding DAS28, the mean at the beginning of the time analysis was 3.1 (SD 1.0) and after 24 months it was 2.4 (SD 0.7), showing a statistically significant improvement (p < 0.001). In all patients, the reduction of disease activity was 65% (95% CI, 58-71). Patients entering the PCC program benefited from a global improvement in disease activity in terms of DAS28.

Features of Dengue and Chikungunya Infections of Colombian Children under 24 Months of Age Admitted to the Emergency Department.

We aimed to assess clinical and laboratory differences between dengue and chikungunya in children <24 months of age in a comparative study. We collected retrospective clinical and laboratory data confirmed by NS1/IgM for dengue for 19 months (1 January 2013 to 17 August 2014). Prospective data for chikungunya confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction were collected for 4 months (22 September 2014-14 December 2014). Sensitivity and specificity [with 95% confidence interval (CI)] were reported for each disease diagnosis. A platelet count <150 000 cells/ml at emergency admission best characterized dengue, with a sensitivity of 67% (95% CI, 53-79) and specificity of 95% (95% CI, 82-99). The algorithm developed with classification and regression tree analysis showed a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI, 68-100) and specificity of 38% (95% CI, 9-76) to diagnose dengue. Our study provides potential differential characteristics between chikungunya and dengue in young children, especially low platelet counts.

Case report: microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Recently there has been a large outbreak of Zika virus infections in Colombia, South America. The epidemic began in September 2015 and continued to April 2017, for the total number of Zika cases reported of 107,870. For those confirmed Zika cases, there were nearly 20,000 (18.5%) suspected to be pregnant women, resulting in 157 confirmed cases of microcephaly in newborns reported by their health government agency. There is a clear under-estimation of the total number of cases and in addition no prior publications have been published to demonstrate the clinical aspects of the Zika infection in Colombia. We characterized one Zika presentation to be able to compare and contrast with other cases of Zika infection already reported in the literature. CASE PRESENTATION: In this case report, we demonstrate congenital microcephaly at week 19 of gestation in a 34-year-old mother who showed symptoms compatible with Zika virus infection from Sincelejo, State of Sucre, in the Colombian Caribbean. Zika virus RNA was detected in the placenta using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). At week 25, the fetus weigh estimate was 770 g, had a cephalic perimeter of 20.2 cm (5th percentile), ventriculomegaly on the right side and dilatation of the fourth ventricle. At week 32, the microcephaly was confirmed with a cephalic perimeter of 22 cm, dilatation of the posterior atrium to 13 mm, an abnormally small cerebellum (29 mm), and an augmented cisterna magna. At birth (39 weeks by cesarean section), the head circumference was 27.5 cm, and computerized axial tomography (Siemens Corp, 32-slides) confirmed microcephaly with calcifications. CONCLUSION: We report a first case of maternal Zika virus infection associated with fetal microcephaly in Colombia and confirmed similar presentation to those observed previous in Brazil, 2015-2016.

[Economic and health impact of prenatal care in pregnant women with public health insurance in Colombia during 2014]. / Impacto económico y sanitario del control prenatal en embarazadas afiliadas al régimen subsidiado en Colombia durante 2014.

OBJECTIVE:: To estimate health care costs of live births and the impact of prenatal care visit (PCV) in women from poor households. MATERIALS AND METHODS:: A randomized sample of 9 244 pregnant women (out of total= 25 000). Mean differences and proportions were calculated to compare results in both groups of women. The costs were estimated in American Dollars (USD) 2014, from the payer's perspective. RESULTS:: 75% of women live in urban areas. The mean age was 23 years old (CI95% 23.5-23.8). The average cost with PCV was USD 609.1 (CI95%: 581-632.7) and without PCV was USD 857.8 (CI95%: 774.7-923.8) and 87% of women attended at least one PCV. The health care costs increased in 32% (CI95% 27.1-41) in women who did not attended PCV. CONCLUSION:: The PCV is an efficient and effective intervention for managing the risk of maternal health.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating costs associated with a community outbreak of meningococcal disease in a colombian Caribbean city.

Meningococcal disease is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection that is caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis), and it can cause meningitis, meningococcaemia outbreaks and epidemics. The disease is fatal in 9-12% of cases and with a death rate of up to 40% among patients with meningococcaemia. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of a meningococcal outbreak that occurred in a Caribbean city of Colombia. We contacted experts involved in the outbreak and asked them specific questions about the diagnosis and treatment for meningococcal cases during the outbreak. Estimates of costs of the outbreak were also based on extensive review of medical records available during the outbreak. The costs associated with the outbreak were divided into the cost of the disease response phase and the cost of the disease surveillance phase. The costs associated with the outbreak control and surveillance were expressed in US$ (2011) as cost per 1,000 inhabitants. The average age of patients was 4.6 years (SD 3.5); 50% of the cases died; 50% of the cases were reported to have meningitis (3/6); 33% were diagnosed with meningococcaemia and myocarditis (2/6); 50% of the cases had bacteraemia (3/6); 66% of the cases had a culture specimen positive for Neisseria meningitidis; 5 of the 6 cases had RT-PCR positive for N. meningitidis. All N. meningitidis were serogroup B; 50 doses of ceftriaxone were administered as prophylaxis. Vaccine was not available at the time. The costs associated with control of the outbreak were estimated at US$ 0.8 per 1,000 inhabitants, disease surveillance at US$ 4.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, and healthcare costs at US$ 5.1 per 1,000 inhabitants. The costs associated with meningococcal outbreaks are substantial, and the outbreaks should be prevented. The mass chemoprophylaxis implemented helped control the outbreak.

How Possible Is the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis? An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease from Hepatitis B and C, 1990-2019.

This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) elimination using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significantly changing points in the trends of Age-standardized Prevalence Rates (ASPR) and Age-standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. The Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was -31.4% and -12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide, respectively; the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality had decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was -26.7% and 10.0% for HBV and HCV, respectively. While the ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high-middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with high SDI (increase), and only in countries with low SDI did it decrease. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPCs associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.

Clinical inertia in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus among patients attending selected healthcare institutions in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: The burden of disease of diabetes in Colombia have increased in the last decades. Secondary prevention is crucial for diabetes control. Many patients already treated remain with poor glycemic control and without timely and appropriate treatment intensification. This has been called in the literature as Clinical Inertia. Updated information regarding clinical inertia based on the Colombian diabetes treatment guidelines is needed. OBJECTIVE: To measure the prevalence of clinical inertia in newly diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients in healthcare institutions in Colombia, based on the recommendations of the current official guidelines. METHODS: An observational and retrospective cohort study based on databases of two Health Medical Organizations (HMOs) in Colombia (one from subsidized regimen and one from contributory regimen) was conducted. Descriptive analysis was performed to summarize demographic and clinical information. Chi-square tests were used to assess associations between variables of interest. RESULTS: A total of 616 patients with T2DM (308 for each regimen) were included. Median age was 61 years. Overall clinical inertia was 93.5% (87.0% in contributory regimen and 100% in subsidized regimen). Patients with Hb1Ac ≥ 8% in the subsidized regimen were more likely to receive monotherapy than patients in the contributory regimen (OR 2.33; 95% CI 1.41-3.86). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the prevalence of overall clinical inertia was higher in the subsidized regime than in the contributory regime (100% vs 87%). Great efforts have been made to equalize the coverage between the two systems, but this finding is worrisome with respect to the difference in quality of the health care provided to these two populations. This information may help payers and clinicians to streamline strategies for reducing clinical inertia and improve patient outcomes.

[Impact assessment of the rotavirus vaccine in Colombia using rapid evaluation methods]. / Evaluación del impacto de la vacuna contra rotavirus en Colombia usando métodos rápidos de evaluación.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the effectiveness of the monovalent rotavirus vaccine in preventing the need to hospitalize children under 2 years old for acute diarrheal disease in five Colombian cities. METHODS: A population survey was conducted based on a probability sample of children over 2 months and under 24 months of age in five Colombian cities (Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, and Riohacha) over the period from August through October 2010. The vaccine had been introduced in the Expanded Program on Immunization in January 2009. Rotavirus vaccination coverage was estimated by age group; the cumulative incidence of hospitalization for severe diarrhea was determined; and the magnitude of correlation between vaccination with one or two doses of rotavirus vaccine and hospitalization for diarrhea was calculated using the age-adjusted probability ratio (PR) and other epidemiologically significant factors. Effectiveness of the vaccine was estimated using the expression 1-PR. RESULTS: Coverage with a single dose of the rotavirus vaccine was 87.3%. During the 12 months prior to the survey, 1 453 of the children under 24 months old in the study areas (43.2%) had presented with diarrhea, and of these, 174 (5.2%) had been hospitalized for this cause. The effectiveness of two doses of the vaccine in preventing hospitalization for severe diarrhea was 68% (CI 95% = 55%-77%). CONCLUSIONS: In Colombia, rotavirus vaccination protects against hospitalization for diarrhea due to any cause. The use of cross-sectional surveys appeared to be adequate for rapid evaluation of an immunization program's effectiveness with a new vaccine.

Comparative effectiveness and duration of protection of ChAdOx1, CoronaVac, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccines for symptomatic and hospitalized Mu, Delta, and Omicron: A test-negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: We carried out a study to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of homologous vaccination schedules against COVID-19, using data from mandatory information systems from Bogota, Colombia. METHODS: A test-negative case-control study in adults from Bogota (Colombia), between March 1st of 2021 and February 25th of 2022. We assess VE among symptomatic COVID-19 cases during the Mul, Delta, and Omicron predominance periods in Bogota, with controls matched by sex, age (±5 years), and date of testing (±7 days), using a case:control ratio of 1:1. We selected homologous vaccination schedules with ChAdOx1, CoronaVac, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S. VE was reported as one minus the odds ratio in adjusted conditional logistic regressions, with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: 52,913 cases were matched to controls, 16,722 for Mu, 14,094 for Delta, and 22,097 for Omicron. VE was high against COVID-19 during Mu weeks with full vaccination using the monovalent BNT162b2 (VE: 69; 95% CI, 65 to 72) vaccine and ChAdOx1 (VE: 64; 95% CI, 31 to 81) and significantly lower with CoronaVac (P < 0.001) and Ad26.COV2.S (P = 0.005). During Delta, VE against COVID-19 was higher with BNT162b2 (VE: 55; 95% CI, 51 to 58). The VE for COVID-19 cases during Omicron was higher with a booster dose of monovalent BNT162b2 (VE: 45; 95% CI, 34 to 54). The VE of primary series and booster for ChAdOx1, Ad26.COV2.S, and CoronaVac did not show protection for Omicron. CONCLUSION: Our study provides further evidence on the protective effect of mRNA vaccines for Omicron, and warrant that the duration of protection against symptomatic infection may last for only a few months.