Retrospective validation study of an artificial neural network-based preoperative decision-support tool for noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) in women with primary breast cancer (ISRCTN14341750).

BACKGROUND: Surgical sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is routinely used to reliably stage axillary lymph nodes in early breast cancer (BC). However, SLNB may be associated with postoperative arm morbidities. For most patients with BC undergoing SLNB, the findings are benign, and the procedure is currently questioned. A decision-support tool for the prediction of benign sentinel lymph nodes based on preoperatively available data has been developed using artificial neural network modelling. METHODS: This was a retrospective geographical and temporal validation study of the noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) model, based on preoperatively available data from 586 women consecutively diagnosed with primary BC at two sites. Ten preoperative clinicopathological characteristics from each patient were entered into the web-based calculator, and the probability of benign lymph nodes was predicted. The performance of the NILS model was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration, that is, comparison of the observed and predicted event rates of benign axillary nodal status (N0) using calibration slope and intercept. The primary endpoint was axillary nodal status (discrimination, benign [N0] vs. metastatic axillary nodal status [N+]) determined by the NILS model compared to nodal status by definitive pathology. RESULTS: The mean age of the women in the cohort was 65 years, and most of them (93%) had luminal cancers. Approximately three-fourths of the patients had no metastases in SLNB (N0 74% and 73%, respectively). The AUC for the predicted probabilities for the whole cohort was 0.6741 (95% confidence interval: 0.6255-0.7227). More than one in four patients (n = 151, 26%) were identified as candidates for SLNB omission when applying the predefined cut-off for lymph node-negative status from the development cohort. The NILS model showed the best calibration in patients with a predicted high probability of healthy axilla. CONCLUSION: The performance of the NILS model was satisfactory. In approximately every fourth patient, SLNB could potentially be omitted. Considering the shift from postoperatively to preoperatively available predictors in this validation study, we have demonstrated the robustness of the NILS model. The clinical usability of the web interface will be evaluated before its clinical implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered in the ISRCTN registry with study ID ISRCTN14341750. Date of registration 23/11/2018.

Hormone receptor mRNA and protein levels as predictors of premenopausal tamoxifen benefit.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Tamoxifen remains an important adjuvant treatment in premenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Thus, determination of hormone receptors is important. Here, we compare cytosol-based methods, immunohistochemistry (IHC), and gene expression (GEX) analysis for determining hormone receptor status in premenopausal breast cancer patients from a randomised tamoxifen trial, to evaluate their performance in identifying patients that benefit from tamoxifen. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Premenopausal patients (n=564) were randomised to 2 years of tamoxifen or no systemic treatment. Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status by protein expression measured by cytosol-based methods and IHC, and mRNA by GEX analysis were compared in 313 patients with available data from all methods. Kaplan Meier estimates and Cox regression were used to evaluate the treatment-predictive value for recurrence-free interval (RFi) and overall survival (OS). Median follow-up for event-free patients was 26 (RFi) and 33 (OS) years. RESULTS: The mRNA data of ESR1 and PGR distributed bimodally, patterns confirmed in an independent cohort. Kappa-values between all methods were 0.76 and 0.79 for ER and PR, respectively. Tamoxifen improved RFi in patients with ER-positive (ER+) or PR-positive (PR+) tumours (Hazard Ratio [HR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]), cytosol-ER+ 0.53 [0.36-0.79]; IHC-ER+ 0.55 [0.38-0.79]; GEX-ER+ 0.54 [0.37-0.77]; cytosol-PR+ 0.49 [0.34-0.72]; IHC-PR+ 0.58 [0.40-0.85]; GEX-PR+ 0.55 [0.38-0.80]). Results were similar for OS. INTERPRETATION: These methods can all identify patients that benefit from 2 years of tamoxifen with equal performance, indicating that GEX data might be used to guide adjuvant tamoxifen therapy.

Serum immuno-oncology markers carry independent prognostic information in patients with newly diagnosed metastatic breast cancer, from a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is a challenging disease, and despite new therapies, prognosis is still poor for a majority of patients. There is a clinical need for improved prognostication where immuno-oncology markers can provide important information. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum immuno-oncology markers in MBC patients and their respective relevance for prediction of survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We investigated a broad panel of 92 immuno-oncology proteins in serum from 136 MBC patients included in a prospective observational study (NCT01322893) with long-term follow-up. Serum samples were collected before start of systemic therapy and analyzed using multiplex proximity extension assay (Olink Target 96 Immuno-Oncology panel). Multiple machine learning techniques were used to identify serum markers with highest importance for prediction of overall and progression-free survival (OS and PFS), and associations to survival were further evaluated using Cox regression analyses. False discovery rate was then used to adjust for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: Using random forest and random survival forest analyses, we identified the top nine and ten variables of highest predictive importance for OS and PFS, respectively. Cox regression analyses revealed significant associations (P < 0.005) of higher serum levels of IL-8, IL-10 and CAIX with worse OS in multivariable analyses, adjusted for established clinical prognostic factors including circulating tumor cells (CTCs). Similarly, high serum levels of IL-8, IL-10, ADA and CASP8 significantly associated with worse PFS. Interestingly, high serum levels of FasL significantly associated with improved OS and PFS. In addition, CSF-1, IL-6, MUC16, TFNSFR4 and CD244 showed suggestive evidence (P < 0.05) for an association to survival in multivariable analyses. After correction for multiple comparisons, IL-8 still showed strong evidence for correlation to survival. CONCLUSION: To conclude, we found six serum immuno-oncology markers that were significantly associated with OS and/or PFS in MBC patients, independently of other established prognostic factors including CTCs. Furthermore, an additional five serum immuno-oncology markers provided suggestive evidence for an independent association to survival. These findings highlight the relevance of immuno-oncology serum markers in MBC patients and support their usefulness for improved prognostication. Trial registration Clinical Trials (NCT01322893), registered March 25, 2011.

Tamoxifen-predictive value of gene expression signatures in premenopausal breast cancer: data from the randomized SBII:2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Gene expression (GEX) signatures in breast cancer provide prognostic information, but little is known about their predictive value for tamoxifen treatment. We examined the tamoxifen-predictive value and prognostic effects of different GEX signatures in premenopausal women with early breast cancer. METHODS: RNA from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor tissue from premenopausal women randomized between two years of tamoxifen treatment and no systemic treatment was extracted and successfully subjected to GEX profiling (n = 437, NanoString Breast Cancer 360™ panel). The median follow-up periods for a recurrence-free interval (RFi) and overall survival (OS) were 28 and 33 years, respectively. Associations between GEX signatures and tamoxifen effect were assessed in patients with estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (ER+ /HER2-) tumors using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression. The prognostic effects of GEX signatures were studied in the entire cohort. False discovery rate adjustments (q-values) were applied to account for multiple hypothesis testing. RESULTS: In patients with ER+/HER2- tumors, FOXA1 expression below the median was associated with an improved effect of tamoxifen after 10 years with regard to RFi (hazard ratio [HR]FOXA1(high) = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.61-1.76, HRFOXA1(low) = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.14-0.67, qinteraction = 0.0013), and a resembling trend was observed for AR (HRAR(high) = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.60-2.20, HRAR(low) = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.24-0.75, qinteraction = 0.87). Similar patterns were observed for OS. Tamoxifen was in the same subgroup most beneficial for RFi in patients with low ESR1 expression (HRRFi ESR1(high) = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.43-1.35, HRRFi, ESR1(low) = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.29-1.06, qinteraction = 0.37). Irrespective of molecular subtype, higher levels of ESR1, Mast cells, and PGR on a continuous scale were correlated with improved 10 years RFi (HRESR1 = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.69-0.92, q = 0.005; HRMast cells = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.65-0.85, q < 0.0001; and HRPGR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68-0.89, q = 0.002). For BC proliferation and Hypoxia, higher scores associated with worse outcomes (HRBCproliferation = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.33-1.79, q < 0.0001; HRHypoxia = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.20-1.58, q < 0.0001). The results were similar for OS. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of FOXA1 is a promising predictive biomarker for tamoxifen effect in ER+/HER2- premenopausal breast cancer. In addition, each of the signatures BC proliferation, Hypoxia, Mast cells, and the GEX of AR, ESR1, and PGR had prognostic value, also after adjusting for established prognostic factors. Trial registration This trial was retrospectively registered in the ISRCTN database the 6th of December 2019, trial ID: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/ISRCTN12474687 .

The implementation of a noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) preoperative prediction model is cost effective in primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The need for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in clinically node-negative (cN0) patients is currently questioned. Our objective was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a preoperative noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) model (an artificial neural network model) for predicting pathological nodal status in patients with cN0 breast cancer (BC). METHODS: A health-economic decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the utility of the NILS model in reducing the proportion of cN0 patients with low predicted risk undergoing SLNB. The model used information from a national registry and published studies, and three sensitivity/specificity scenarios of the NILS model were evaluated. Subgroup analysis explored the outcomes of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy. The results are presented as cost (€) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per 1000 patients. RESULTS: All three scenarios of the NILS model reduced total costs (-€93,244 to -€398,941 per 1000 patients). The overall health benefit allowing for the impact of SLNB complications was a net health gain (7.0-26.9 QALYs per 1000 patients). Sensitivity analyses disregarding reduced quality of life from lymphedema showed a small loss in total health benefits (0.4-4.0 QALYs per 1000 patients) because of the reduction in total life years (0.6-6.5 life years per 1000 patients) after reduced adjuvant treatment. Subgroup analyses showed greater cost reductions and QALY gains in patients undergoing BCS. CONCLUSION: Implementing the NILS model to identify patients with low risk for nodal metastases was associated with substantial cost reductions and likely overall health gains, especially in patients undergoing BCS.

Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes as a prognostic and tamoxifen predictive marker in premenopausal breast cancer: data from a randomised trial with long-term follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are of important prognostic and predictive value in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer (BC) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but their clinical relevance in oestrogen receptor-positive/HER2-negative (ER+/HER2-) remains unknown. The primary study aim was to analyse the prognostic effect of TILs on the BC-free interval (BCFi) in premenopausal patients stratified by BC subtypes. The secondary aim was to investigate if TILs are predictive of tamoxifen (TAM) benefit. METHODS: Archival tissues from primary breast tumours were collected from patients from the SBII:2pre trial, in which 564 premenopausal women were randomised to 2 years of adjuvant TAM or no systemic treatment, regardless of hormone receptor status. TILs were scored on whole tissue sections from 447 patients with available ER status. Tumours were divided into ER+/HER2-, HER2+ and TNBC subtypes by immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation. The prognostic value of TILs was analysed in systemically untreated patients (n = 221); the predictive information was investigated in the ER+ subgroup (n = 321) by cumulative incidence curves and Cox regression analyses. The median follow-up was 28 years. RESULTS: High (≥ 50%) infiltration of TILs was a favourable prognostic factor in terms of BCFi (univariable analysis: hazard ratioBCFi (HRBCFi) 0.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22-0.71; P = 0.002). Similar effects were observed across all BC subtypes. The effect of adjuvant TAM was stronger in patients with ER+ tumours and TILs < 50% (HRBCFi 0.63; 95% CI 0.47-0.84; P = 0.002) than in patients with high immune infiltration (≥ 50%) (HRBCFi 0.84; 95% CI (0.24-2.86); P = 0.77). However, evidence for differential effects of TAM in categories of TILs, i.e. interaction, was weak. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate a long-term favourable prognostic value of high infiltration of TILs in a cohort of premenopausal BC patients and the positive prognostic effect was extended to the ER+/HER2- subgroup. A beneficial effect of TAM in ER+ patients was observed in patients with tumours of low TIL infiltration, but evidence for a treatment predictive effect was weak. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered in the ISRCTN database, trial ID: ISRCTN12474687 .

Expression of epithelial-mesenchymal transition-related markers and phenotypes during breast cancer progression.

PURPOSE: The study aimed to investigate expression of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-related proteins and phenotypes during breast cancer progression and to relate this to patient outcome. METHODS: Protein expression patterns of E-cadherin, N-cadherin, twist, and vimentin were examined by immunohistochemistry on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples from primary tumors (PTs) (n = 419), synchronous lymph node metastases (LNMs) (n = 131) and recurrences (n = 34) from patients included in an observational prospective primary breast cancer study. Markers were evaluated individually and combined as defined EMT phenotypes (epithelial, mesenchymal, partial EMT, and negative). EMT profiles were compared between matched tumor progression stages, and related to clinicopathological data and distant recurrence-free interval (DRFi). RESULTS: N-cadherin-positivity, vimentin-positivity, mesenchymal and partial EMT phenotypes were associated with more aggressive tumor characteristics such as triple-negative subtype. Single EMT markers and phenotype discordance rates between paired tumor samples were observed in the range of 2-35%. Non-epithelial phenotypes were more frequently identified in recurrences compared to PTs, however, no skewness of expression or phenotype was detected between PTs and matched LNMs or between PTs and matched recurrences (Exact McNemar test). Interestingly, patients with a twist positive PT had shorter DRFi, compared to patients with a twist negative PT (hazard ratio (HR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-5.1, P = 0.02). Essentially, the same effect was seen in multivariable analysis (HR 2.5, 95% CI 0.97-6.6, P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: The epithelial phenotype was indicated to be lost between PTs and recurrences as a reflection of tumor progression. Twist status of the PT was related to long-term prognosis warranting further investigation in larger cohorts.

Evolution of Estrogen Receptor Status from Primary Tumors to Metastasis and Serially Collected Circulating Tumor Cells.

BACKGROUND: The estrogen receptor (ER) can change expression between primary tumor (PT) and distant metastasis (DM) in breast cancer. A tissue biopsy reflects a momentary state at one location, whereas circulating tumor cells (CTCs) reflect real-time tumor progression. We evaluated ER-status during tumor progression from PT to DM and CTCs, and related the ER-status of CTCs to prognosis. METHODS: In a study of metastatic breast cancer, blood was collected at different timepoints. After CellSearch® enrichment, CTCs were captured on DropMount slides and evaluated for ER expression at baseline (BL) and after 1 and 3 months of therapy. Comparison of the ER-status of PT, DM, and CTCs at different timepoints was performed using the McNemar test. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: Evidence of a shift from ER positivity to negativity between PT and DM was demonstrated (p = 0.019). We found strong evidence of similar shifts from PT to CTCs at different timepoints (p < 0.0001). ER-positive CTCs at 1 and 3 months were related to better prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: A shift in ER-status from PT to DM/CTCs was demonstrated. ER-positive CTCs during systemic therapy might reflect the retention of a favorable phenotype that still responds to therapy.

The estrogen receptor coactivator AIB1 is a new putative prognostic biomarker in ER-positive/HER2-negative invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast.

PURPOSE: According to the 2017 St Gallen surrogate definitions of the intrinsic subtypes, Ki67, progesterone receptor (PR) and Nottingham histological grade (NHG) are used for prognostic classification of estrogen receptor (ER) positive/HER2-negative breast cancer into luminal A- or luminal B-like. The aim of the present study was to investigate if additional biomarkers, related to endocrine signaling pathways, e.g., amplified in breast cancer 1 (AIB1), androgen receptor (AR), and G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER), can provide complementary prognostic information in a subset of ER-positive/HER-negative invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC). METHODS: Biomarkers from 224 patients were analyzed immunohistochemically on tissue microarray. The primary endpoint was breast cancer mortality (BCM), analyzed with 10- and 25-year follow-up (FU). In addition, the prognostic value of gene expression data for these biomarkers was analyzed in three publicly available ILC datasets. RESULTS: AIB1 (high vs. low) was associated to BCM in multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, tumor size, nodal status, NHG, Ki67, luminal-like classification, and adjuvant systemic therapy) with 10-year FU (HR 6.8, 95% CI 2.3-20, P = 0.001) and 25-year FU (HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-7.8, P = 0.03). The evidence of a prognostic effect of AIB1 could be confirmed by linking gene expression data to outcome in independent publicly available ILC datasets. AR and GPER were neither associated to BCM with 10-year nor with 25-year FU (P > 0.33). Furthermore, Ki67 and NHG were prognostic for BCM at both 10-year and 25-year FU, whereas PR was not. CONCLUSIONS: AIB1 is a new putative prognostic biomarker in ER-positive/HER2-negative ILC.

Agreement between molecular subtyping and surrogate subtype classification: a contemporary population-based study of ER-positive/HER2-negative primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and human epidermal receptor 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancers are classified as Luminal A or B based on gene expression, but immunohistochemical markers are used for surrogate subtyping. The aims of this study were to examine the agreement between molecular subtyping (MS) and surrogate subtyping and to identify subgroups consisting mainly of Luminal A or B tumours. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 2063 patients diagnosed between 2013-2017, with primary ER+/HER2- breast cancer, analysed by RNA sequencing. Surrogate subtyping was performed according to three algorithms (St. Gallen 2013, Maisonneuve and our proposed Grade-based classification). Agreement (%) and kappa statistics (κ) were used as concordance measures and ROC analysis for luminal distinction. Ki67, progesterone receptor (PR) and histological grade (HG) were further investigated as surrogate markers. RESULTS: The agreement rates between the MS and St. Gallen 2013, Maisonneuve and Grade-based classifications were 62% (κ = 0.30), 66% (κ = 0.35) and 70% (κ = 0.41), respectively. PR did not contribute to distinguishing Luminal A from B tumours (auROC = 0.56). By classifying HG1-2 tumours as Luminal A-like and HG3 as Luminal B-like, agreement with MS was 80% (κ = 0.46). Moreover, by combining HG and Ki67 status, a large subgroup of patients (51% of the cohort) having > 90% Luminal A tumours could be identified. CONCLUSIONS: Agreement between MS and surrogate classifications was generally poor. However, a post hoc analysis showed that a combination of HG and Ki67 could identify patients very likely to have Luminal A tumours according to MS.

Artificial neural network models to predict nodal status in clinically node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is standard staging procedure for nodal status in breast cancer, but lacks therapeutic benefit for patients with benign sentinel nodes. For patients with positive sentinel nodes, individualized surgical strategies are applied depending on the extent of nodal involvement. Preoperative prediction of nodal status is thus important for individualizing axillary surgery avoiding unnecessary surgery. We aimed to predict nodal status in clinically node-negative breast cancer and identify candidates for SLNB omission by including patient-related and pathological characteristics into artificial neural network (ANN) models. METHODS: Patients with primary breast cancer were consecutively included between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2012 in a prospectively maintained pathology database. Clinical- and radiological data were extracted from patient's files and only clinically node-negative patients constituted the final study cohort. ANN-based models for nodal prediction were constructed including 15 risk variables for nodal status. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (HL) were used to assess performance and calibration of three predictive ANN-based models for no lymph node metastasis (N0), metastases in 1-3 lymph nodes (N1) and metastases in ≥ 4 lymph nodes (N2). Linear regression models for nodal prediction were calculated for comparison. RESULTS: Eight hundred patients (N0, n = 514; N1, n = 232; N2, n = 54) were included. Internally validated AUCs for N0 versus N+ was 0.740 (95% CI = 0.723-0.758); median HL was 9.869 (P = 0.274), for N1 versus N0, 0.705 (95% CI = 0.686-0.724; median HL: 7.421; P = 0.492) and for N2 versus N0 and N1, 0.747 (95% CI = 0.728-0.765; median HL: 9.220; P = 0.324). Tumor size and vascular invasion were top-ranked predictors of all three end-points, followed by estrogen receptor status and lobular cancer for prediction of N2. For each end-point, ANN models showed better discriminatory performance than multivariable logistic regression models. Accepting a false negative rate (FNR) of 10% for predicting N0 by the ANN model, SLNB could have been abstained in 27.25% of patients with clinically node-negative axilla. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective study, ANN showed promising result as decision-supporting tools for estimating nodal disease. If prospectively validated, patients least likely to have nodal metastasis could be spared SLNB using predictive models. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered in the ISRCTN registry with study ID ISRCTN14341750 . Date of registration 23/11/2018. Retrospectively registered.

Pre-operative plasma cell-free circulating tumor DNA and serum protein tumor markers as predictors of lung adenocarcinoma recurrence.

Background: Lung cancer patients have a risk of recurrence even after curatively intended surgery. Cell-free circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and circulating tumor marker measurements are easily accessible through peripheral blood and could potentially identify patients with worse prognosis. The aim of this study was to examine ctDNA in pre-operative plasma and the role of tumor markers in pre-operative serum for their predictive potential on risk of tumor recurrence. Methods: Mutation analysis by 26-gene targeted sequencing was performed on 157 lung adenocarcinomas (ACs) from patients surgically treated at the Lund University Hospital 2005-2014. Of these, 58 tumors from patients in stages I-IIIA (34 stage I, 14 stage II and 10 stage III) with mutation(s) in EGFR, BRAF or KRAS were included. ctDNA from corresponding plasma (median 1.5 ml, range 1-1.6) was analyzed for one tumor-specific mutation in either of these three oncogenes using ultrasensitive IBSAFE droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). The tumor markers cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) were analyzed in corresponding serum with electrochemiluminiscence immunoassay. Results: 6/7 patients with ctDNA and 19/51 without detected ctDNA were diagnosed with recurrence (log-rank test p = .001). 8/10 patients with positive serum tumor markers and 17/47 without tumor markers were diagnosed with recurrence (log-rank test, p = .0002). Fifteen patients had positive ctDNA and/or tumor markers, 12 of these had recurrence (log-rank test, p < .0001). Conclusion: A combination of tumor markers and ctDNA single mutation detection in low-volume pre-operative blood samples is a promising prognostic test. Prediction of recurrent disease in surgically treated early stage lung cancer can likely be further improved by using larger volumes of blood.

Longitudinal enumeration and cluster evaluation of circulating tumor cells improve prognostication for patients with newly diagnosed metastatic breast cancer in a prospective observational trial.

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) carry independent prognostic information in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) on different lines of therapy. Moreover, CTC clusters are suggested to add prognostic information to CTC enumeration alone but their significance is unknown in patients with newly diagnosed MBC. We aimed to evaluate whether longitudinal enumeration of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and CTC clusters could improve prognostication and monitoring of patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) starting first-line therapy. METHODS: This prospective study included 156 women with newly diagnosed MBC. CTCs and CTC clusters were detected using CellSearch technology at baseline (BL) and after 1, 3, and 6 months of systemic therapy. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) and the secondary end point overall survival (OS). Median follow-up time was 25 (7-69) months. RESULTS: There were 79 (52%) and 30 (20%) patients with ≥ 5 CTCs and ≥ 1 CTC cluster at baseline, respectively; both factors were significantly associated with impaired survival. Landmark analyses based on follow-up measurements revealed increasing prognostic hazard ratios for ≥ 5 CTCs and CTC clusters during treatment, predicting worse PFS and OS. Both factors added value to a prognostic model based on clinicopathological variables at all time points and ≥ 5 CTCs and presence of CTC clusters enhanced the model's C-index to > 0.80 at 1, 3, and 6 months. Importantly, changes in CTCs during treatment were significantly correlated with survival and patients with a decline from ≥ 5 CTCs at BL to < 5 CTCs at 1 month had a similar odds ratio for progression to patients with < 5 CTCs at BL and 1 month. Stratification of patients based on CTC count and CTC clusters into four groups (0 CTCs, 1-4 CTCs, ≥ 5 CTCs, and ≥ 1 CTC + CTC clusters) demonstrated that patients with CTC clusters had significantly worse survival compared to patients without clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal evaluation of CTC and CTC clusters improves prognostication and monitoring in patients with MBC starting first-line systemic therapy. The prognostic value increases over time, suggesting that changes in CTC count are clinically relevant. The presence of CTC clusters adds significant prognostic value to CTC enumeration alone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01322893 . Registered on 25 March 2011.

Assessment of early response biomarkers in relation to long-term survival in patients with HER2-negative breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus bevacizumab: Results from the Phase II PROMIX trial.

Pathologic complete response (pCR) is a predictor for favorable outcome after neoadjuvant treatment in early breast cancer. Modulation of gene expression may also provide early readouts of biological activity and prognosis, offering the possibility for timely response-guided treatment adjustment. The role of early transcriptional changes in predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus bevacizumab was investigated. One-hundred-and-fifty patients with large, operable and locally advanced HER2-negative breast cancer received epirubicin and docetaxel, with the addition of bevacizumab. Patients underwent tumor biopsies at baseline, after Cycle 2 and at the time of surgery. The primary end point, pCR, and its relation with the secondary endpoints event-free survival (EFS), overall survival (OS) and gene expression profiles, are reported. The pCR rate was 13% (95% CI 8.6-20.2), with significantly more pCRs among triple-negative [28% (95% CI 14.8-45.4)] than among hormone receptor positive (HR+) tumors [9% (95% CI 4.6-16.3); (OR = 3.9 [CI = 1.5-10.3])]. pCR rates were not associated with EFS or OS. PAM50 subtypes significantly changed after Cycle 2 (p = 0.03) and an index of absolute changes in PAM50 correlations between these time-points was associated with EFS [HR = 0.62 (CI = 0.3-1.1)]. In univariable analyses, signatures for angiogenesis, proliferation, estrogen receptor signaling, invasion and metastasis, and immune response, measured after Cycle 2, were associated with pCR in HR+ tumors. Evaluation of changes in molecular subtypes and other signatures early in the course of neoadjuvant treatment may be predictive of pCR and EFS. These factors may help guide further treatment and should be considered when designing neoadjuvant trials.

The PDGF pathway in breast cancer is linked to tumour aggressiveness, triple-negative subtype and early recurrence.

PURPOSE: The platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) signalling pathway is often dysregulated in cancer and PDGF-receptor expression has been linked to unfavourable prognostic factors in breast cancer (e.g. ER negativity, high Ki67 and high grade). This study aimed to evaluate the expression of PDGFRα, PDGFRß and ligand PDGF-CC in breast cancer in relation to molecular subtypes and prognosis. METHODS: Protein expression of tumour and/or stromal cell PDGFRα, PDGFRß and PDGF-CC was evaluated in primary tumours (N = 489), synchronous lymph node metastases (N = 135) and asynchronous recurrences (N = 39) using immunohistochemistry in a prospectively maintained cohort of primary breast cancer patients included during 1999-2003. Distant recurrence-free interval (DRFi) was the primary end-point. RESULTS: High expression of all investigated PDGF family members correlated to increasing Nottingham histopathological grade and high Ki67. Tumour cells displayed high expression of PDGFRα in 20%, and PDGF-CC in 21% of primary tumours, which correlated with the triple-negative subtype (TNBC). Patients with high PDGF-CC had inferior prognosis (P = 0.04) in terms of 5-year DRFi, whereas PDGFRα was up-regulated in lymph node metastasis and recurrences compared to primary tumours. High primary tumour PDGFRα was associated with increased risk of central nervous system (CNS) recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: High PDGFRα and PDGF-CC expression were linked to breast cancer with an aggressive biological phenotype, e.g. the TNBC subtype, and high PDGF-CC increased the risk of 5-year distant recurrence. Tumour cell PDGFRα was significantly up-regulated in lymph node metastases and asynchronous recurrences. Our findings support an active role of the PDGF signalling pathway in tumour progression.

Diverse roles of cell-specific hypoxia-inducible factor 1 in cancer-associated hypercoagulation.

Despite the increased risk of thrombosis in cancer patients compared with healthy individuals, mechanisms that regulate cancer-induced hypercoagulation are incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to investigate whether cell-specific hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) 1α regulates cancer-associated hypercoagulation, using in vitro clotting assays and in vivo cancer models. In mouse lung and mammary tumor cells, hypoxia led to increases in cell adhesion, clotting, and fibrin deposition; these increases were eliminated in HIF1α null cells. Increased levels of HIF1α were also associated with increased tissue factor expression in human breast tumor samples. Conversely, deletion of endothelial (but not myeloid) cell-specific HIF1α doubled pulmonary fibrin deposition, and trebled thrombus formation compared with wildtype littermates in tumor-bearing mice. Our data suggest that tumor and endothelial cell-specific HIF1α may have opposing roles in cancer-associated coagulation and thrombosis. Off-target effects of manipulating the HIF1 axis in cancer patients should be carefully considered when managing thrombotic complications.

Non-linear transformations of age at diagnosis, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes in prediction of clinical outcome in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in breast cancer are often measured on a continuous scale, but categorized for clinical decision-making. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate if accounting for continuous non-linear effects of the three factors age at diagnosis, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes improves prognostication. These factors will most likely be included in the management of breast cancer patients also in the future, after an expected implementation of gene expression profiling for adjuvant treatment decision-making. METHODS: Four thousand four hundred forty seven and 1132 women with primary breast cancer constituted the derivation and validation set, respectively. Potential non-linear effects on the log hazard of distant recurrences of the three factors were evaluated during 10 years of follow-up. Cox-models of successively increasing complexity: dichotomized predictors, predictors categorized into three or four groups, and predictors transformed using fractional polynomials (FPs) or restricted cubic splines (RCS), were used. Predictive performance was evaluated by Harrell's C-index. RESULTS: Using FP-transformations, non-linear effects were detected for tumor size and number of positive lymph nodes in univariable analyses. For age, non-linear transformations did, however, not improve the model fit significantly compared to the linear identity transformation. As expected, the C-index increased with increasing model complexity for multivariable models including the three factors. By allowing more than one cut-point per factor, the C-index increased from 0.628 to 0.674. The additional gain, as measured by the C-index, when using FP- or RCS-transformations was modest (0.695 and 0.696, respectively). The corresponding C-indices for these four models in the validation set, based on the same transformations and parameter estimates from the derivation set, were 0.675, 0.700, 0.706, and 0.701. CONCLUSIONS: Categorization of each factor into three to four groups was found to improve prognostication compared to dichotomization. The additional gain by allowing continuous non-linear effects modeled by FPs or RCS was modest. However, the continuous nature of these transformations has the advantage of making it possible to form risk groups of any size.

Androgen receptor expression and breast cancer mortality in a population-based prospective cohort.

PURPOSE: The increase in clinical trials with androgen receptor (AR)-targeting drugs emphasizes the need of clarifying the role of AR expression in different breast cancer subtypes. AR confers good prognosis in estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer, but its role in ER-negative (ER-) breast cancer is unclear. The aim of this study was to elaborate on previous findings of a differential prognostic role for AR depending on ER status, using breast cancer mortality (BCM) as endpoint, in a population-based cohort from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. METHODS: Immunohistochemical AR expression was assessed in 910 women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed 1991-2010, supplemented with clinicopathological information, vital status, and cause of death, with the last follow-up in December 2014 (median 10 years). Survival analyses according to AR status and AR/ER combinations were performed. RESULTS: AR expression was available for 671 tumors. AR+ (n = 573, 85%) was associated with favorable established tumor markers and lower BCM in univariable analysis, especially during the first 5 years following diagnosis [HR 0.4; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.2-0.7]. Multivariable analysis for short-term follow-up indicated higher BCM among patients with AR+ER- tumors (HR 3.5; 95% CI 1.4-9.1) than other AR and ER combinations. CONCLUSIONS: AR expression added prognostic information to ER expression with respect to short-term prognosis. The worst prognosis was seen for patients with AR+/ER- tumors in short-term follow-up, supporting the pre-specified hypothesis. However, larger cohorts are needed for further characterization of the role of AR expression in ER- breast cancer.

Long-term third-party assessment of results after continent cutaneous diversion with Lundiana pouch.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the long-term functional outcomes and complications after continent cutaneous diversion with the Lundiana pouch. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Complications, re-operations, renal function, and continence were ascertained from patient charts. Outcome variables were validated by a second and independent review of the patient files. RESULTS: A complication of Clavien-Dindo grade ≥III, including unscheduled re-admissions, occurred in 45/193 patients (23%) at ≤90 days of surgery. At a median follow-up of 13 years, 105/193 patients (54%) had undergone at least one re-operation, with uretero-intestinal stricture being the most prevalent cause [28 patients (15%)]. Re-operations were more prevalent in patients operated during the first half of the study period than during the second half (2000-2007; 62% vs 47%; P = 0.03), and they were also more frequent in patients who underwent surgery for benign causes than in patients who underwent surgery for malignancy (60% vs 51%; P = 0.04). Continence was achieved in 172/188 patients (91%). In all, 16% of all patients required revisional surgery of the outlet to remain continent with an easily catheterisable pouch or to address stomal stenosis. The mean decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate was more pronounced in patients with benign indications for urinary diversion than in those with malignancies, even after adjusting for younger age at surgery and longer follow-up in the former group (22 vs 11 mL/min/1.73 m2 ; P < 0.006). A disinterested third-party assessment revealed 10 postoperative complications, 17 re-operations during follow-up, and seven occasions of hospitalisation due to pyelonephritis (included in data above) not recorded at the primary data review. CONCLUSIONS: The Lundiana pouch is associated with a high risk of re-operation, although the functional results are good. Independent review by a third party increased the validity of the outcome data.

Vasoactive peptides associate with treatment outcome ofbevacizumab-containing therapy in metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a common early adverse event of anti-angiogenic treatment of cancer and may associate with treatment response. However, blood pressure measurement as a surrogate response biomarker has methodological limitations, and predictive biomarkers of angiogenesis inhibitors are lacking. In disease associated with hypertension, vasoactive peptides have been linked to cardiovascular pressure load. Here, we have explored potential associations between circulating levels of vasoactive peptides and tumor response during bevacizumab-containing treatment of colorectal cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients with available best objective response (ORR) and time to tumor progression (TTP) data were included from a randomized clinical trial investigating maintenance therapy after first line chemotherapy plus bevacizumab. Midregional-pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), midregional-pro-atrial-natriuretic-peptide (MR-proANP), and C-terminal-prepro-vasopressin (Copeptin) vasoactive peptide concentrations were measured in plasma at baseline and after 6 weeks of chemotherapy and bevacizumab treatment (n = 97). We determined associations among clinical outcome (ORR and TTP), peptide levels, and hypertension (NCI-CTCAE 4.0 criteria), using Spearman's test, multiple linear regression, and Mann-Whitney's test. RESULTS: Increasing levels of vasoactive peptides from baseline and after six weeks of treatment were associated with improved treatment outcome (MR-proADM: ORR, p = .0003; TTP, p = .05; MR-proANP: ORR, p = .05; TTP, p = .03; Copeptin: ORR, p = .10; TTP, p = .02). Patients with increasing levels of all three peptides (n = 28) versus increasing levels of one or two peptides (n = 59) showed a median TTP of 284 and 225 d, respectively (p = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that increasing systemic levels of vasoactive peptides associate with improved tumor response and TTP in mCRC patients treated with a bevacizumab-containing regimen. These findings support the proposed link between the tumor vasculature and the cardiovascular system of the host. This should motivate further studies that investigate the potential role of vasoactive peptides as a novel class of dynamic biomarkers in the treatment of cancer.