Massachusetts Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder Estimation Revisited: Comparing a Bayesian Approach to Standard Capture-Recapture Methods.

BACKGROUND: The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) estimated the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) among the civilian, noninstitutionalized people aged 12 years or older in Massachusetts as 1.2% between 2015 and 2017. Accurate estimation of the prevalence of OUD is critical to the success of treatment and resource planning. Various indirect estimation approaches have been used but are subject to data availability and infrastructure-related issues. METHODS: We used 2015 data from the Massachusetts Public Health Data Warehouse (PHD) to compare the results of two approaches to estimating OUD prevalence in the Massachusetts population. First, we used a seven-dataset capture-recapture analysis under log-linear model parameterization, controlling for the source dependence and effects of age, sex, and county through stratification. Second, we applied a benchmark-multiplier method in a Bayesian framework by linking health care claims data to death certificate data assuming an extrapolation of death rates from observed untreated OUD to unobserved OUD. RESULTS: Our estimates for OUD prevalence among Massachusetts residents (aged 18-64 years) were 4.62% (95% CI = 4.59%, 4.64%) in the capture-recapture approach and 4.29% (95% CrI = 3.49%, 5.32%) in the Bayesian model. Both estimates were approximately four times higher than NSDUH estimates. CONCLUSION: The synthesis of our findings suggests that the disease surveillance system misses a large portion of the population with OUD. Our study also suggests that concurrent use of multiple methods improves the justification and facilitates the triangulation and interpretation of the resulting estimates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04111939.

Assisted Reproductive Technology and Perinatal Mortality: Selected States (2006-2011).

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare trends and characteristics of assisted reproductive technology (ART) and non-ART perinatal deaths and to evaluate the association of perinatal mortality and method of conception (ART vs. non-ART) among ART and non-ART deliveries in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan from 2006 to 2011. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using linked ART surveillance and vital records data from Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan. RESULTS: During 2006 to 2011, a total of 570 ART-conceived perinatal deaths and 25,158 non-ART conceived perinatal deaths were identified from the participating states. Overall, ART perinatal mortality rates were lower than non-ART perinatal mortality rates for both singletons (7.0/1,000 births vs. 10.2/1,000 births) and multiples (22.8/1,000 births vs. 41.2/1,000 births). At <28 weeks of gestation, the risk of perinatal death among ART singletons was significantly lower than non-ART singletons (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.85). Similar results were observed among multiples at <28 weeks of gestation (aRR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45-0.89). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that ART use is associated with a decreased risk of perinatal deaths prior to 28 weeks of gestation, which may be explained by earlier detection and management of fetal and maternal conditions among ART-conceived pregnancies. These findings provide valuable information for health care providers, including infertility specialists, obstetricians, and pediatricians when counseling ART users on risk of treatment. KEY POINTS: · ART use is associated with a decreased risk of perinatal deaths prior to 28 weeks of gestation.. · ART perinatal mortality rates were lower than that for non-ART perinatal mortality.. · This study used linked data to examine associations between use of ART and perinatal deaths..

One year mortality of patients treated with naloxone for opioid overdose by emergency medical services.

Study objective: Prehospital use of naloxone for presumed opioid overdose has increased markedly in recent years because of the current opioid overdose epidemic. In this study, we determine the 1-year mortality of suspected opioid overdose patients who were treated with naloxone by EMS and initially survived. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study of patients using three linked statewide datasets in Massachusetts: emergency medical services (EMS), a master demographics file, and death records. We included all suspected opioid overdose patients who were treated with naloxone by EMS. The primary outcome measures were death within 3 days of treatment and between 4 days and 1 year of treatment. Results: Between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015, there were 9734 individuals who met inclusion criteria and were included for analysis. Of these, 807 (8.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.7-8.8%)) died in the first 3 days, 668 (6.9% (95% CI 6.4-7.4%)) died between 4 days and 1 year, and 8259 (84.8% (95% CI 84.1-85.6%)) were still alive at 1 year. Excluding those who died within 3 days, 668 of the remaining 8927 individuals (7.5% (95% CI 6.9-8.0%)) died within 1 year. Conclusion: The 1-year mortality of those who are treated with naloxone for opioid overdose by EMS is high. Communities should focus both on primary prevention and interventions for this patient population, including strengthening regional treatment centers and expanding access to medication for opioid use disorder.

Opioid-related incident severity and emergency medical service naloxone administration by sex in Massachusetts, 2013-2019.

Background: A Cross-sectional study of all emergency ambulance runs reported by licensed Emergency Medical Services (EMS) providers between 2013 and 2019 was undertaken to determine if the sex of a patient experiencing opioid-related symptoms had an impact on their odds of receiving naloxone from EMS. Methods: All runs within Massachusetts for individuals 11 years and older with a reported sex between 2013 and 2019 (n = 5,533,704 runs) were included. Covariates modeled were patient age, year of the incident, and county of the incident. Runs were separated into those that were opioid-related versus not; opioid-related runs were further subdivided into five severity categories including dead on arrival, acute opioid overdose, opioid intoxicated, opioid withdrawal, and other opioid-related incident. Results: Among opioid-related runs, women had 24% lower odds (95% CI 0.68-0.86) of appearing in the dead on arrival category and 20% lower odds (95% CI 0.78-0.82) of appearing in the acute opioid overdose category than men. Among acute opioid overdoses, runs where patient symptoms met Massachusetts EMS guidelines for naloxone administration, women had 18% lower odds (95% CI 0.76-0.89) of receiving naloxone than men. Conclusions: Sex-related differences persist in the odds of naloxone administration by EMS providers when controlling for symptom presentation.

Homelessness and Veteran Status in Relation to Nonfatal and Fatal Opioid Overdose in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Compared with non-Veterans, Veterans are at higher risk of experiencing homelessness, which is associated with opioid overdose. OBJECTIVE: To understand how homelessness and Veteran status are related to risks of nonfatal and fatal opioid overdose in Massachusetts. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: All residents aged 18 years and older during 2011-2015 in the Massachusetts Department of Public Health's Data Warehouse (Veterans: n=144,263; non-Veterans: n=6,112,340). A total of 40,036 individuals had a record of homelessness, including 1307 Veterans and 38,729 non-Veterans. MAIN MEASURES: The main independent variables were homelessness and Veteran status. Outcomes included nonfatal and fatal opioid overdose. RESULTS: A higher proportion of Veterans with a record of homelessness were older than 45 years (77% vs. 48%), male (80% vs. 62%), or receiving high-dose opioid therapy (23% vs. 15%) compared with non-Veterans. The rates of nonfatal and fatal opioid overdose in Massachusetts were 85 and 16 per 100,000 residents, respectively. Among individuals with a record of homelessness, these rates increased 31-fold to 2609 and 19-fold to 300 per 100,000 residents. Homelessness and Veteran status were independently associated with higher odds of nonfatal and fatal opioid overdose. There was a significant interaction between homelessness and Veteran status in their effects on risk of fatal overdose. CONCLUSIONS: Both homelessness and Veteran status were associated with a higher risk of fatal opioid overdoses. An understanding of health care utilization patterns can help identify treatment access points to improve patient safety among vulnerable individuals both in the Veteran population and among those experiencing homelessness.

Methadone and buprenorphine discontinuation among postpartum women with opioid use disorder.

BACKGROUND: The postpartum year is a vulnerable period for women with opioid use disorder, with increased rates of fatal and nonfatal overdose; however, data on the continuation of medications for opioid use disorder on a population level are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the effect of discontinuing methadone and buprenorphine in women with opioid use disorder in the year following delivery and determine the extent to which maternal and infant characteristics are associated with time to discontinuation of medications for opioid use disorder. STUDY DESIGN: This population-based retrospective cohort study used linked administrative data of 211,096 deliveries in Massachusetts between 2011 and 2014 to examine the adherence to medications for opioid use disorder. Individuals receiving medications for opioid use disorder after delivery were included in the study. Here, demographic, psychosocial, prenatal, and delivery characteristics are described. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression modeling were used to examine factors associated with medication discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 2314 women who received medications for opioid use disorder at delivery were included in our study. Overall, 1484 women (64.1%) continued receiving medications for opioid use disorder for a full 12 months following delivery. The rate of continued medication use varied from 34% if women started on medications for opioid use disorder the month before delivery to 80% if the medications were used throughout pregnancy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves differed by maternal race and ethnicity (the 12-month continuation probability was .65 for White non-Hispanic women and .51 for non-White women; P<.001) and duration of use of prenatal medications for opioid use disorder (12-month continuation probability was .78 for women with full prenatal engagement and .60 and .44 for those receiving medications for opioid use disorder ≥5 months [but not throughout pregnancy] and ≤4 months prenatally, respectively; P<.001). In all multivariable models, duration of receipt of prenatal medications for opioid use disorder (≤4 months vs throughout pregnancy: adjusted hazard ratio, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 2.72-3.91) and incarceration (incarceration during pregnancy or after delivery vs none: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-2.12) were most strongly associated with the discontinuation of medications for opioid use disorder. CONCLUSION: Almost two-thirds of women with opioid use disorder continued using medications for opioid use disorder for a full year after delivery; however, the rates of medication continuation varied significantly by race and ethnicity, degree of use of prenatal medications for opioid use disorder, and incarceration status. Prioritizing medication continuation across the perinatal continuum, enhancing sex-specific and family-friendly recovery supports, and expanding access to medications for opioid use disorder despite being incarcerated can help improve postpartum medication adherence.

A Novel Imputation Approach for Sharing Protected Public Health Data.

Objectives. To develop an imputation method to produce estimates for suppressed values within a shared government administrative data set to facilitate accurate data sharing and statistical and spatial analyses. Methods. We developed an imputation approach that incorporated known features of suppressed Massachusetts surveillance data from 2011 to 2017 to predict missing values more precisely. Our methods for 35 de-identified opioid prescription data sets combined modified previous or next substitution followed by mean imputation and a count adjustment to estimate suppressed values before sharing. We modeled 4 methods and compared the results to baseline mean imputation. Results. We assessed performance by comparing root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and proportional variance between imputed and suppressed values. Our method outperformed mean imputation; we retained 46% of the suppressed value's proportional variance with better precision (22% lower RMSE and 26% lower MAE) than simple mean imputation. Conclusions. Our easy-to-implement imputation technique largely overcomes the adverse effects of low count value suppression with superior results to simple mean imputation. This novel method is generalizable to researchers sharing protected public health surveillance data. (Am J Public Health. 2021; 111(10):1830-1838. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306432).

Number of embryos transferred and diagnosis of preeclampsia.

BACKGROUND: Multiple births and first pregnancy are associated with higher preeclampsia risk. It is unknown if the transfer of multiple embryos or first embryo transfer with assisted reproductive technology (ART) is also associated with greater preeclampsia risk. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of IVF clinics and hospitals in Massachusetts. We used linked ART surveillance, birth certificate, and maternal hospitalization discharge data for 21,188 births, considering resident singleton (12,810) and twin (8378) live-births from autologous or donor eggs from 2005 to 2012. We used log binomial and Poisson regression to calculate adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between preeclampsia and predictors of preeclampsia. Outcomes were stratified by singleton and twin birth, donor versus autologous cycles, and use of fresh versus cryopreserved embryos. RESULTS: Considering all singleton births, the transfer of multiple embryos increased the risk of preeclampsia [aRR = 1.10 (95% CI: 1.01-1.19)]. Relative risks were greatest for fresh non-donor cycles [aRR = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03-1.26)]. Vanishing twin and number of prior ART cycles was not associated with preeclampsia among singleton births [aRR = 1.18 (95% CI: 0.91-1.53)], and aRR = 1.01 (95% CI: 0.96-1.05)], respectively. Considering all twin births, the transfer of > 2 embryos increased the risk of preeclampsia [aRR = 1.09 (95% CI: 1.001-1.19)]. Vanishing triplet and number of prior ART cycles were not associated with preeclampsia among twin births [aRR = 0.93 (95% CI: 0.69-1264), and aRR = 0.98 (CI: 0.95-1.02)], respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among ART births, the transfer of more than 1 embryo for singleton gestations and more than 2 embryos for twin gestations increased the risk for preeclampsia diagnosis.

One-Year Mortality of Patients After Emergency Department Treatment for Nonfatal Opioid Overdose.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Despite the increased availability of naloxone, death rates from opioid overdose continue to increase. The goal of this study is to determine the 1-year mortality of patients who were treated for a nonfatal opioid overdose in Massachusetts emergency departments (EDs). METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of patients from 3 linked statewide Massachusetts data sets: a master demographics list, an acute care hospital case-mix database, and death records. Patients discharged from the ED with a final diagnosis of opioid overdose were included. The primary outcome measure was death from any cause within 1 year of overdose treatment. RESULTS: During the study period, 17,241 patients were treated for opioid overdose. Of the 11,557 patients who met study criteria, 635 (5.5%) died within 1 year, 130 (1.1%) died within 1 month, and 29 (0.25%) died within 2 days. Of the 635 deaths at 1 year, 130 (20.5%) occurred within 1 month and 29 (4.6%) occurred within 2 days. CONCLUSION: The short-term and 1-year mortality of patients treated in the ED for nonfatal opioid overdose is high. The first month, and particularly the first 2 days after overdose, is the highest-risk period. Patients who survive opioid overdose should be considered high risk and receive interventions such as being offered buprenorphine, counseling, and referral to treatment before ED discharge.

Characteristics and Receipt of Medication Treatment Among Young Adults Who Experience a Nonfatal Opioid-Related Overdose.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Nonfatal opioid overdose represents an opportunity to engage young adults into using medication for opioid use disorder. We seek to describe characteristics of young adults who experience nonfatal overdose and estimate rates of and time to medication for opioid use disorder for young adults relative to those aged 26 to 45 years. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using retrospective administrative data of 15,281 individuals aged 18 to 45 years who survived an opioid-related overdose in Massachusetts between 2012 and 2014, using deidentified, individual-level, linked data sets from Massachusetts government agencies. We described patient characteristics stratified by age (18 to 21, 22 to 25, and 26 to 45 years) and evaluated multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to compare rates of medication for opioid use disorder receipt, controlling for age, sex, history of mental health disorders, and addiction treatment. RESULTS: Among 4,268 young adults in the year after nonfatal overdose, 28% (n=336/1,209) of those aged 18 to 21, 36% (n=1,097/3,059) of those aged 22 to 25 years, and 36% (n=3,916/11,013) of those aged 26 to 45 years received medication for opioid use disorder. For individuals aged 18 to 21 and 22 to 25 years, median time to buprenorphine treatment was 4 months (interquartile range 1.7 to 1.8 months); to methadone treatment, 4 months (interquartile range 2.8 to 2.9 months); and to naltrexone treatment, 1 month (interquartile range 1 to 1 month). Individuals aged 18 to 21 years were less likely (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60 [95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.70]) to receive methadone than those aged 22 to 25 and 26 to 45 years. Individuals aged 18 to 21 years and those aged 22 to 25 years were more likely to receive naltrexone (adjusted hazard ratio 1.65 [95% confidence interval 1.36 to 2.00] and 1.41 [95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.61], respectively) than those aged 26 to 45 years. CONCLUSION: One in 3 young adults received medication for opioid use disorder in the 12 months after surviving an overdose. Type of medication for opioid use disorder received appeared to be age associated. Future research should focus on how medication choice is made and how to optimize the emergency department for medication for opioid use disorder initiation after nonfatal overdose.

Medication for Opioid Use Disorder After Nonfatal Opioid Overdose and Association With Mortality: A Cohort Study.

Background: Opioid overdose survivors have an increased risk for death. Whether use of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) after overdose is associated with mortality is not known. Objective: To identify MOUD use after opioid overdose and its association with all-cause and opioid-related mortality. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: 7 individually linked data sets from Massachusetts government agencies. Participants: 17 568 Massachusetts adults without cancer who survived an opioid overdose between 2012 and 2014. Measurements: Three types of MOUD were examined: methadone maintenance treatment (MMT), buprenorphine, and naltrexone. Exposure to MOUD was identified at monthly intervals, and persons were considered exposed through the month after last receipt. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine MOUD as a monthly time-varying exposure variable to predict time to all-cause and opioid-related mortality. Results: In the 12 months after a nonfatal overdose, 2040 persons (11%) enrolled in MMT for a median of 5 months (interquartile range, 2 to 9 months), 3022 persons (17%) received buprenorphine for a median of 4 months (interquartile range, 2 to 8 months), and 1099 persons (6%) received naltrexone for a median of 1 month (interquartile range, 1 to 2 months). Among the entire cohort, all-cause mortality was 4.7 deaths (95% CI, 4.4 to 5.0 deaths) per 100 person-years and opioid-related mortality was 2.1 deaths (CI, 1.9 to 2.4 deaths) per 100 person-years. Compared with no MOUD, MMT was associated with decreased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.47 [CI, 0.32 to 0.71]) and opioid-related mortality (AHR, 0.41 [CI, 0.24 to 0.70]). Buprenorphine was associated with decreased all-cause mortality (AHR, 0.63 [CI, 0.46 to 0.87]) and opioid-related mortality (AHR, 0.62 [CI, 0.41 to 0.92]). No associations between naltrexone and all-cause mortality (AHR, 1.44 [CI, 0.84 to 2.46]) or opioid-related mortality (AHR, 1.42 [CI, 0.73 to 2.79]) were identified. Limitation: Few events among naltrexone recipients preclude confident conclusions. Conclusion: A minority of opioid overdose survivors received MOUD. Buprenorphine and MMT were associated with reduced all-cause and opioid-related mortality. Primary Funding Source: National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.

Potentially Inappropriate Opioid Prescribing, Overdose, and Mortality in Massachusetts, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) may contribute to opioid overdose. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between PIP and adverse events. DESIGN: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Three million seventy-eight thousand thirty-four individuals age ≥ 18, without disseminated cancer, who received prescription opioids between 2011 and 2015. MAIN MEASURES: We defined PIP as (a) morphine equivalent dose ≥ 100 mg/day in ≥ 3 months; (b) overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine prescriptions in ≥ 3 months; (c) ≥ 4 opioid prescribers in any quarter; (d) ≥ 4 opioid-dispensing pharmacies in any quarter; (e) cash purchase of prescription opioids on ≥ 3 occasions; and (f) receipt of opioids in 3 consecutive months without a documented pain diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify PIP practices associated with non-fatal opioid overdose, fatal opioid overdose, and all-cause mortality, controlling for covariates. KEY RESULTS: All six types of PIP were associated with higher adjusted hazard for all-cause mortality, four of six with non-fatal overdose, and five of six with fatal overdose. Lacking a documented pain diagnosis was associated with non-fatal overdose (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.02-2.41), as was high-dose opioids (AHR 1.68, 95% CI 1.59-1.76). Co-prescription of benzodiazepines was associated with fatal overdose (AHR 4.23, 95% CI 3.85-4.65). High-dose opioids were associated with all-cause mortality (AHR 2.18, 95% CI 2.14-2.23), as was lacking a documented pain diagnosis (AHR 2.05, 95% CI 2.01-2.09). Compared to those who received opioids without PIP, the hazard for fatal opioid overdose with one, two, three, and ≥ four PIP subtypes were 4.24, 7.05, 10.28, and 12.99 (test of linear trend, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PIP was associated with higher hazard for all-cause mortality, fatal overdose, and non-fatal overdose. Our study implies the possibility of creating a risk score incorporating multiple PIP subtypes, which could be displayed to prescribers in real time.

Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015. METHODS: We performed a multisample stratified capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence. RESULTS: The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11-25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015. CONCLUSIONS: In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.

Assisted reproduction and risk of preterm birth in singletons by infertility diagnoses and treatment modalities: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to examine the spectrum of infertility diagnoses and assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatments in relation to risk of preterm birth (PTB) in singletons. METHODS: Population-based assisted reproductive technology surveillance data for 2000-2010 were linked with birth certificates from three states: Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan, resulting in a sample of 4,370,361 non-ART and 28,430 ART-related singletons. Logistic regression models with robust variance estimators were used to compare PTB risk among singletons conceived with and without ART, the former grouped by parental infertility diagnoses and treatment modalities. Demographic and pregnancy factors were included in adjusted analyses. RESULTS: ART was associated with increased PTB risk across all infertility diagnosis groups and treatment types: for conventional ART, adjusted relative risks ranged from 1.4 (95% CI 1.0, 1.9) for male infertility to 2.4 (95% CI 1.8, 3.3) for tubal ligation. Adding intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection and/or assisted hatching to conventional ART treatment did not alter associated PTB risks. Singletons conceived by mothers without infertility diagnosis and with donor semen had an increased PTB risk relative to non-ART singletons. CONCLUSIONS: PTB risk among ART singletons is increased within each treatment type and all underlying infertility diagnosis, including male infertility. Preterm birth in ART singletons may be attributed to parental infertility, ART treatments, or their combination.

The Impact of ART on Live Birth Outcomes: Differing Experiences across Three States.

BACKGROUND: Research has shown an association between assisted reproductive technology (ART) and adverse birth outcomes. We identified whether birth outcomes of ART-conceived pregnancies vary across states with different maternal characteristics, insurance coverage for ART services, and type of ART services provided. METHODS: CDC's National ART Surveillance System data were linked to Massachusetts, Florida, and Michigan vital records from 2000 through 2006. Maternal characteristics in ART- and non-ART-conceived live births were compared between states using chi-square tests. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses and calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) to assess associations between ART use and singleton preterm delivery (<32 weeks, <37 weeks), singleton small for gestational age (SGA) (<5th and <10th percentiles) and multiple birth. RESULTS: ART use in Massachusetts was associated with significantly lower odds of twins as well as triplets and higher order births compared to Florida and Michigan (aOR 22.6 vs. 30.0 and 26.3, and aOR 37.6 vs. 92.8 and 99.2, respectively; Pinteraction < 0.001). ART use was associated with increased odds of SGA in Michigan only, and with preterm delivery (<32 and <37 weeks) in all states (aOR range: 1.60, 1.87). CONCLUSIONS: ART use was associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery among singletons that showed little variability between states. The number of twins, triplets and higher order gestations per cycle was lower in Massachusetts, which may be due to the availability of insurance coverage for ART in Massachusetts.

Accuracy of assisted reproductive technology information on birth certificates: Florida and Massachusetts, 2004-06.

BACKGROUND: Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) includes fertility procedures where both egg and sperm are handled in the lab. ART use has increased considerably in recent years, accounting for 47,090 livebirths in the U.S. in 2010. ART increases the probability of multiple gestation births, which are at higher risks than singletons for adverse outcomes. Additionally, ART is associated with a greater risk of complications during pregnancy, labour, and delivery, and increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton births. METHODS: We merged Florida and Massachusetts birth records from 2004-06 with the National ART Surveillance System (NASS) and using NASS as the gold standard, calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of ART reporting on the birth certificates by maternal, infant, and hospital characteristics. We fit random-effects logistic regression models to evaluate simultaneously the association of ART reporting with these predictors while accounting for correlation among births occurring in the same hospital. RESULTS: Sensitivity of ART reporting on the birth certificate was 28.9% in Florida and 41.4% in Massachusetts. Specificity was >99% in both states. PPV was 45.5% in Florida and 54.6% in Massachusetts. The odds of ART reporting varied by state and by several maternal and delivery characteristics including age, parity, history of fetal loss, plurality, race/Hispanic ethnicity, delivery payment source, pre-existing conditions, and complications during pregnancy or labour and delivery. CONCLUSIONS: There was significant under-reporting of ART procedures on the birth certificates. Using data on ART births identified only from birth certificates yields a biased sample of the population of ART births.

Intersectional inequities and longitudinal prevalence estimates of opioid use disorder in Massachusetts 2014-2020: a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis.

Background: As overdoses continue to increase worldwide, accurate estimates are needed to understand the size of the population at risk and address health disparities. Capture-recapture methods may be used in place of direct estimation at nearly any geographic level (e.g., city, state, country) to estimate the size of the population with opioid use disorder (OUD). We performed a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis with persons aged 18-64 years to estimate the prevalence of OUD in Massachusetts from 2014 to 2020, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Methods: We used seven statewide administrative data sources linked at the individual level. We developed log-linear models to estimate the unknown OUD-affected population. Uncertainty was characterized using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) on the total counts and prevalence estimates. Findings: The estimated OUD prevalence increased from 5.47% (95% CI = 4.89%, 5.98%) in 2014 to 5.79% (95% CI = 5.34%, 6.19%) in 2020. Prevalence among Hispanic females doubled (2.46% in 2014 to 4.23% in 2020) and prevalence rose to nearly 10% among Black non-Hispanic males and Hispanic males from 2014 through 2019. Estimates for Black non-Hispanic females more than doubled from 2014 through 2019 (3.39% to 7.09%), and then decreased to 5.69% in 2020. Interpretation: This study is the first to provide OUD prevalence trend estimates by binary sex and race/ethnicity at a state level using capture-recapture methods. Using these methods as the international overdose crisis worsens can allow jurisdictions to appropriately allocate resources and targeted interventions to marginalised populations. Funding: NIDA.

Trends in Fatal Opioid-Related Overdose in American Indian and Alaska Native Communities, 1999-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Opioid-related overdose mortality rates have increased sharply in the U.S. over the past two decades, and inequities across racial and ethnic groups have been documented. Opioid-related overdose trends among American Indian and Alaska Natives require further quantification and assessment. METHODS: Observational, U.S. population-based registry data on opioid-related overdose mortality between 1999 and 2021 were extracted in 2023 using ICD-10 codes from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research multiple cause of death file by race, Hispanic ethnicity, sex, and age. Segmented time series analyses were conducted to estimate opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates among the American Indian and Alaska Native population between 1999 and 2021. Analyses were performed in 2023. RESULTS: Two distinct time segments revealed significantly different opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates within the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population, from 0.36 per 100,000 (95% CI=0.32, 0.41) between 1999 and 2019 to 6.5 (95% CI=5.7, 7.31) between 2019 and 2021, with the most pronounced increase among those aged 24-44 years. Similar patterns were observed within the American Indian and Alaska Native population with Hispanic ethnicity, but the estimated growth rates were generally steeper across most age groups than across the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population. Patterns of opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates were similar between American Indian and Alaska Native females and males between 2019 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Sharp increases in opioid-related overdose mortality rates among American Indian and Alaska Native communities are evident by age and Hispanic ethnicity, highlighting the need for culturally sensitive fatal opioid-related overdose prevention, opioid use disorder treatment, and harm-reduction efforts. Future research should aim to understand the underlying factors contributing to these high mortality rates and employ interventions that leverage the strengths of American Indian and Alaska Native culture, including the strong sense of community.

Target trial emulation for comparative effectiveness research with observational data: Promise and challenges for studying medications for opioid use disorder.

Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) increase retention in care and decrease mortality during active treatment; however, information about the comparative effectiveness of different forms of MOUD is sparse. Observational comparative effectiveness studies are subject to many types of bias; a robust framework to minimize bias would improve the quality of comparative effectiveness evidence. This paper discusses the use of target trial emulation as a framework to conduct comparative effectiveness studies of MOUD with administrative data. Using examples from our planned research project comparing buprenorphine-naloxone and extended-release naltrexone with respect to the rates of MOUD discontinuation, we provide a primer on the challenges and approaches to employing target trial emulation in the study of MOUD.

Using decision tree models and comprehensive statewide data to predict opioid overdoses following prison release.

PURPOSE: Identifying predictors of opioid overdose following release from prison is critical for opioid overdose prevention. METHODS: We leveraged an individually linked, state-wide database from 2015-2020 to predict the risk of opioid overdose within 90 days of release from Massachusetts state prisons. We developed two decision tree modeling schemes: a model fit on all individuals with a single weight for those that experienced an opioid overdose and models stratified by race/ethnicity. We compared the performance of each model using several performance measures and identified factors that were most predictive of opioid overdose within racial/ethnic groups and across models. RESULTS: We found that out of 44,246 prison releases in Massachusetts between 2015-2020, 2237 (5.1%) resulted in opioid overdose in the 90 days following release. The performance of the two predictive models varied. The single weight model had high sensitivity (79%) and low specificity (56%) for predicting opioid overdose and was more sensitive for White non-Hispanic individuals (sensitivity = 84%) than for racial/ethnic minority individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Stratified models had better balanced performance metrics for both White non-Hispanic and racial/ethnic minority groups and identified different predictors of overdose between racial/ethnic groups. Across racial/ethnic groups and models, involuntary commitment (involuntary treatment for alcohol/substance use disorder) was an important predictor of opioid overdose.