RESUMO
Resilience assessment for urban drainage systems is a fundamental aspect of building resilient cities. Recently, some scholars have proposed the Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) method, which assesses resilience based on the functional performance of different system failure scenarios. Compared to traditional system dynamics methods, the GRA method considers the impact of internal structural failure on resilience but requires a large amount of computation. This research proposed an improved GRA method to enhance computational efficiency and practicality by reducing the number of system scenario simulations. Firstly, a hydrodynamic model of the drainage network of Haidian Island has been constructed using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Python. Secondly, the GRA method was improved using cluster analysis and convergence analysis to reduce the simulation scenarios. Thirdly, a resilience assessment index was established through system function functions, and two types of resilience enhancement measures, centralized and distributed, were proposed. The results show: (i) resilience assessment increases the computational efficiency by 25% compared to the traditional GRA method; (ii) the resilience index of the existing drainage network within Haidian Island is less than the design value (0.7) in all failure scenarios, indicating a lower level of recovery capability; (iii) compared to the centralized strategy, which is only effective when the system failure level is less than 9%, the distributed strategy enhances the resilience of the urban drainage system at a higher failure level (77%).
Assuntos
Cidades , China , Modelos Teóricos , IlhasRESUMO
The analysis of the influencing factors of flash floods, one of the most destructive natural disasters, is the basis of scientific disaster prevention and mitigation. There is little research considering the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) and water conservancy projects on flash floods, which cannot be ignored in the island areas where flash floods often occur due to the complex influence of various factors. In this study, under the pressure-state-response framework (PSR framework), the factors affecting the distribution of flash floods on Hainan Island, China, from 1970 to 2010 were quantitatively analyzed by using the geographical detector method. By dividing the time period, give full play to the advantages of the PSR framework and show the evolution process of various factors. Different from inland areas, extreme precipitation and tropical cyclones play a major role in the spatial distribution of flash floods on Hainan Island, China, and the driving force of tropical cyclones is 1.1 times that of extreme precipitation on average. Medium-sized reservoirs play the greatest role in the prevention of flash floods on Hainan Island, and their driving forces reach 0.38 times of extreme precipitation on average, followed by large-sized reservoirs and small-sized reservoirs. Large-sized reservoirs are limited in quantity and have limited effectiveness in preventing flash floods on Hainan Island. Therefore, in the forecasting and risk management of flash flood in the island area, more attention should be paid to the impact of extreme precipitation and TCs, and the role of medium-sized reservoir should be fully exerted.