Combined effects of HIV and obesity on the gastrointestinal microbiome of young men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of obesity is rising among people living with HIV, which may synergistically increase inflammation and the risk of associated diseases. Disruption of gut bacterial communities may be one of the key drivers of this inflammation; however, the combined effects of HIV and obesity on the microbiome have not been explored. METHODS: This study included 381 men who have sex with men. Thirty-nine were HIV-positive and obese (H+O+), 143 were HIV-positive and nonobese, 64 were HIV-negative and obese, and 135 were HIV-negative and nonobese. Microbiome composition was assessed by targeted sequencing of the V4 region of the 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene using rectal swab samples. Inverse probability of treatment-weighted marginal structural models were used to investigate differences in microbial composition between groups while controlling for numerous clinical and behavioural confounders. RESULTS: Significant variability in microbial composition was explained by the combination of HIV and obesity, over and above each condition alone (R2 for the marginal contribution of the H+/O+ group = 0.008; P = 0.001). H+O+ participants had the highest ratios of Prevotella to Bacteroides, a pro-inflammatory enterotype that has been described in HIV infection and obesity independently. H+O+ participants had lower levels of Bacteroides and Veillonella than all other groups, suggesting a synergistic effect of HIV and obesity on these genera. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the hypothesis that HIV and obesity act together to disrupt gut microbial communities, which may help explain higher levels of generalized inflammation among people living with both HIV and obesity.

Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States.

There has been considerable uncertainty in estimates of past and current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates in the United States. Statistical estimates of historical infection rates can be obtained from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence data and the incubation period. However, this approach is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and two other approaches, epidemic models of HIV transmission and surveys of HIV prevalence, are used to corroborate and refine the statistical estimates. Analyses suggest the HIV infection rate in the United States grew rapidly in the early 1980s, peaked in the mid-1980s, and subsequently declined markedly. Due both to the decline in the underlying infection rate and to the development of effective therapies that may delay AIDS diagnosis, overall AIDS incidence may plateau during the next 5 years. However, the number of individuals with advanced HIV disease without a diagnosis of AIDS who could potentially benefit from therapy is expected to increase 40% by 1995 as infected individuals progress to more advanced stages of HIV disease. Thus, although the overall HIV infection rate has declined, the demands on the U.S. health care system for treatment and care of HIV-infected individuals remain enormous.

Identification of a reservoir for HIV-1 in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

The hypothesis that quiescent CD4+ T lymphocytes carrying proviral DNA provide a reservoir for human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was examined. In a study of 22 patients successfully treated with HAART for up to 30 months, replication-competent virus was routinely recovered from resting CD4+ T lymphocytes. The frequency of resting CD4+ T cells harboring latent HIV-1 was low, 0.2 to 16.4 per 10(6) cells, and, in cross-sectional analysis, did not decrease with increasing time on therapy. The recovered viruses generally did not show mutations associated with resistance to the relevant antiretroviral drugs. This reservoir of nonevolving latent virus in resting CD4+ T cells should be considered in deciding whether to terminate treatment in patients who respond to HAART.

Methods for projecting course of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic.

Three methods for projecting the short-term course of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic are discussed: (a) empirical extrapolation, (b) the method of "back calculation," and (c) projections based on compartmental models. Extrapolation, which requires only data on AIDS incidence, is based on an assumed functional form and on the supposition that previous trends will continue. The method of back calculation incorporates both information on previous AIDS incidence and knowledge about the incubation period distribution. These calculations provide some evidence of how many infections occurred during previous time intervals. Although this information is not precise, particularly for the recent past, it is sufficient to produce stable short-term projections. Compartmental models can be used to project future prevalence of infection as well as future AIDS incidence. However, such projections are very dependent on assumptions about initial numbers of individuals infected, rates of transmission, changes in high-risk behaviors over time, and assumptions about transmission among subpopulations with differing transmission rates and initial prevalence of infection. Thus, compartmental models offer insights into the trends in an epidemic but do not currently provide a practical tool for obtaining quantitative projections. We present projections for various risk groups based on the method of back calculation and discuss the use of additional epidemiologic data to obtain accurate projections a decade in advance.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia and acquired disorders affecting the immune system: a case-control study.

The relationship of a number of subacute or chronic infectious diseases, connective tissue or autoimmune disorders, allergic conditions, and surgical excision of lymphoid tissue with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) was examined in a case-control study involving 342 cases and 342 matched controls. In both analyses of all matched pairs and those pairs in which both subjects were respondents, no statistically significant association was found between a history of subacute viral infections or subacute and chronic bacterial infections and CLL. Connective tissue or autoimmune disorders also were found not to be associated with CLL. Examination of the association between several allergic conditions and CLL suggested a protective effect as did a "dose-response" analysis, although none of the individual disorders showed a statistically significant relationship; however, a test for linear trend was significant (P = .04). Similarly, examination of the relationship between surgical excision of lymphoid tissue in several anatomic locations and CLL showed a protective effect, statistically significant for tonsillectomy-adenoidectomy (odds ratio = 0.69; 95% confidence interval = 0.48, 0.98). A statistically significant negative dose-response relationship, substantiating the protectiveness of the effect, was found.

Nutritional support of bone marrow transplant recipients: a prospective, randomized clinical trial comparing total parenteral nutrition to an enteral feeding program.

Although standard supportive care for bone marrow transplant (BMT) recipients includes total parenteral nutrition (TPN), it has not been shown that this is the most appropriate method of nutritional support. To determine whether current BMT recipients require TPN during the early recovery period, we conducted a prospective, randomized clinical trial comparing TPN and an individualized enteral feeding program (counseling, high protein snacks and/or tube feeding). Nutritional assessment included measurement of serum proteins, anthropometry, and body composition analysis. For the latter, total body water and extracellular fluid were measured by standard radioisotope dilution techniques and used to quantitate body cell mass and body fat plus extracellular solids (FAT + ECS). In 27 TPN patients, body composition 28 days after BMT, expressed as a percentage of baseline, was body cell mass, 100%, extracellular fluid, 108%, FAT + ECS, 108%, and in 30 enteral feeding program patients, was body cell mass, 93%, extracellular fluid, 104%, and FAT + ECS, 94%. Only the difference in FAT + ECS was statistically significant (p less than 0.01). Compared to the enteral feeding program, TPN was associated with more days of diuretic use, more frequent hyperglycemia, and more frequent catheter removal (prompted by catheter-related complications), but less frequent hypomagnesemia. There were no significant differences in the rate of hematopoietic recovery, length of hospitalization, or survival, but nutrition-related costs were 2.3 times greater in the TPN group. We conclude that TPN is not clearly superior to individualized enteral feeding and recommend that TPN be reserved for BMT patients who demonstrate intolerance to enteral feeding.

Calcium channel blockers and risk of AD: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between use of calcium channel blockers (CCB), dihydropyridine (DHP) or nondihydropyridine (nonDHP) type CCB and risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or mortality. There is evidence suggesting that calcium plays a key role in changes in the brain leading to AD. Previous reports suggest a possible role for CCB in the treatment of AD. However, there are some indications that CCB increase mortality in patients with cardiac disease. METHODS: Subjects were 1092 participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) older than 60 years of age. Data on CCB use was collected prospectively for up to 19 years. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and confidence intervals (CI) of AD and mortality associated with use of CCB or use of only DHP or nonDHP-CCB. Analyses were adjusted for gender, education, smoking, blood pressure and history of heart problems. RESULTS: Use of DHP-CCB was not associated with a significantly reduced risk of AD compared to non-users, although the estimate of the RR was low with DHP-CCB (RR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.07-1.25, P = 0.10). Use of nonDHP-CCB was not associated with reduced risk of AD and the estimate of the RR risk was close to one (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.37-1.83, P = 0.63). In addition, there was no increase in mortality among users of DHP-CCB (RR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.32-1.29, P = 0.21) or nonDHP-CCB (RR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.65-1.87, P = 0.72). CONCLUSION: Users of DHP-CCB and nonDHP-CCB in this study did not have a significantly reduced risk of AD.

The statistical analysis of truncated data: application to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak.

An outbreak of anthrax occurred in the city of Sverdlovsk in Russia in the spring of 1979. The outbreak was due to the inhalation of spores that were accidentally released from a military microbiology facility. In response to the outbreak a public health intervention was mounted that included distribution of antibiotics and vaccine. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply statistical methodology to analyse the Sverdlovsk outbreak, and in particular to estimate the incubation period of inhalational anthrax and the number of deaths that may have been prevented by the public health intervention. The data available for analysis from this common source epidemic are the incubation periods of reported deaths. The statistical problem is that incubation periods are truncated because some individuals may have had their deaths prevented by the public health interventions and thus are not included in the data. However, it is not known how many persons received the intervention or how efficacious was the intervention. A likelihood function is formulated that accounts for the effects of truncation. The likelihood is decomposed into a binomial likelihood with unknown sample size and a conditional likelihood for the incubation periods. The methods are extended to allow for a phase-in of the intervention over time. Assuming a lognormal model for the incubation period distribution, the median and mean incubation periods were estimated to be 11.0 and 14.2 days respectively. These estimates are longer than have been previously reported in the literature. The death toll from the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak could have been about 14% larger had there not been a public health intervention; however, the confidence intervals are wide (95% CI 0-61%). The sensitivity of the results to model assumptions and the parametric model for the incubation period distribution are investigated. The results are useful for determining how long antibiotic therapy should be continued in suspected anthrax cases and also for estimating the ultimate number of deaths in a new outbreak in the absence of any public health interventions.

Effect of HIV antibody disclosure on subsequent sexual activity in homosexual men.

During a prospective study of the natural history of AIDS, 1001 homosexual or bisexual men were offered the opportunity to learn their HIV antibody status. Six hundred and seventy (67%) of the population who elected to do so were similar to the 331 (33%) people who declined in a number of baseline characteristics. All were counselled to practice safe sex. To determine whether disclosure of HIV serologic status affects subsequent sexual behavior, we examined changes at four time-points in three sexual activities during the previous 6 months: the number of male partners with whom the participant had (1) sexual intercourse, (2) unprotected anal receptive intercourse, and (3) unprotected anal insertive intercourse. All activities decreased strikingly over the 18-month study period. Following disclosure, the mean number of partners dropped to 47% of the baseline number in people remaining unaware of their antibody status, to 45% in people told that they were seropositive, and to 55% in people told that they were seronegative. The mean number of partners for younger seropositives declined less than that for older seropositives. The mean number of partners with whom unprotected anal receptive intercourse was practiced declined to 57% of baseline in unaware people, 42% in aware seropositives, and 62% in aware seronegatives. The mean number of partners with whom unprotected anal insertive intercourse was practiced declined to 52% of baseline in unaware people, 42% in aware seropositives and 59% in aware seronegatives. Disclosure of a negative test result led to a significantly smaller decline in these sexual activities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Feasibility of pooling sera for HIV-1 viral RNA to diagnose acute primary HIV-1 infection and estimate HIV incidence.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a pooling method for detection of viral RNA for diagnosis of acute HIV infection and estimation of HIV-1 incidence. METHODS: Sera from 700 consecutive seronegative patients attending sexually transmitted disease clinics in Pune, India, were screened individually for p24 antigen, and pooled into seven pools of 100 for detection of HIV-1 RNA by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. HIV-1 incidence was calculated by the traditional cohort method, the p24 antigen method, and a multistage pooling method in which RNA-positive pools were re-analyzed in smaller pools. RESULTS: Sera from 700 individuals were grouped into seven pools of 100, of which four were positive. These four positive pools were subdivided into eight pools of 50, of which seven were positive. The seven positive pools were subdivided into 35 pools of 10, of which 10 were positive. Based on the 10 RNA-positive pools, the point estimate of HIV-1 incidence was 19.9% per year [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.3-31.8%]. Of the 700 samples analyzed for p24 antigen, eight were positive, resulting in a point estimate of incidence of 18.5%/year (8.0-36.5%). In contrast, the incidence rate based on the traditional cohort method of follow-up was lower at 9.4%/year (4.8-16.4%) due to a low follow-up rate. Testing of individual samples from the 10 RNA-positive pools identified 10 individuals with acute primary HIV-1. CONCLUSION: The multistage pooling method for detection of HIV-1 RNA was more sensitive than the p24 antigen method, and was five-fold less expensive than the p24 antigen assays. Pooling samples for RNA detection was effective in estimating current incidence rates with cost savings that would be practical for use in developing countries.

A randomized, community trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease control for AIDS prevention, Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the design and first-round survey results of a trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease (STD) control to reduce HIV-1 incidence. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized, controlled, community-based trial in Rakai District, Uganda. METHODS: In this ongoing study, 56 communities were grouped into 10 clusters designed to encompass social/sexual networks; clusters within blocks were randomly assigned to the intervention or control arm. Every 10 months, all consenting resident adults aged 15-59 years are visited in the home for interview and sample collection (serological sample, urine, and, in the case of women, self-administered vaginal swabs). Sera are tested for HIV-1, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomonas and bacterial vaginosis. Following interview, all consenting adults are offered directly observed, single oral dose treatment (STD treatment in the intervention arm, anthelminthic and iron-folate in the control arm). Treatment is administered irrespective of symptoms or laboratory testing (mass treatment strategy). Both arms receive identical health education, condom and serological counseling services. RESULTS: In the first home visit round, the study enrolled 5834 intervention and 5784 control arm subjects. Compliance with interview, sample collection and treatment was high in both arms (over 90%). Study arm populations were comparable with respect to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics, and baseline HIV and STD rates. The latter were high: 16.9% of all subjects were HIV-positive, 10.0% had syphilis, and 23.8% of women had trichomonas and 50.9% had bacterial vaginosis. CONCLUSIONS: Testing the effects of STD control on AIDS prevention is feasible in this Ugandan setting.

PIP: An ongoing (1994-98) randomized, community-based trial in Uganda's Rakai District is assessing the assumption that intensive sexually transmitted disease (STD) control efforts result in marked declines in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Described, in this article, are the project design and findings of the first-round baseline survey. 56 communities were grouped into 10 clusters designed to encompass social/sexual networks and clusters within blocks were randomly assigned to the intervention or control arm. All consenting permanent residents of the district are visited in their homes at 10-month intervals where they are administered extensive questionnaires, provide urine and vaginal swab samples, and are offered mass treatment regardless of symptoms or laboratory testing (single oral dose STD treatment in the intervention arm and anthelmintics and iron folate in the control arm). Both groups receive identical health education, condom promotion, and serologic counseling services. In the first round of home visits, 5834 intervention and 5784 control arm subjects were enrolled, representing about 90% of eligible adults. The groups were comparable in terms of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics and baseline rates of HIV and STDs. 16.9% of subjects were HIV-positive, 10.0% had syphilis, 23.8% of women had trichomonas, and 50.9% had bacterial vaginosis. Detailed STD assessment is expected not only to document the relationship between STD control and HIV, but also to identify which STDs confer the greatest population attributable risk for HIV transmission, facilitating targeted control efforts in the future.

Apolipoprotein E genotype and rate of decline in probable Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: The risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) appears to increase, and the age at onset to decrease, with the number of epsilon 4 alleles. If this relationship is due to increased rate of pathophysiological change, the presence of epsilon 4 would be expected to influence progression of disease, predicting a more rapid decline with increasing number of epsilon 4 alleles. OBJECTIVE: To determine if the frequency of the epsilon 4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (ApoE) gene affects the rate of clinical progression in AD. SETTING: Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. SUBJECTS: One hundred one subjects meeting criteria of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke for probable AD or of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) for definite AD; 78 of these subjects met the additional criterion of having a Mini-Mental State Examination score of at least 10 for analysis of rate of decline. MEASUREMENTS: The subjects' characteristics and neuropsychological battery, including the Mini-Mental state Examination, Spatial Delayed Recognition Span, Boston Naming Test, Category Fluency Test, and the Physical Capacity Subscale of the Psychogeriatric Dependency Rating Scale. DESIGN: The subjects were followed up longitudinally for approximately one decade. Medical histories were taken and physical and neurologic examinations and neuropsychological testing were performed every 6 months. Three and a half years of data were available for most tests and 5.5 for the Psychogeriatric Dependency Rating Scale; thereafter, patients were no longer testable. A general linear model analysis of variance was used to assess the influence of ApoE on demographic characteristics and baseline performances on neuropsychological measures. A random-effects regression model was used to predict change over time associated with presence of epsilon 4 on clinical and cognitive measures. RESULTS: The age at onset was greatest for the epsilon 4-heterozygous subjects and least for the epsilon 4-negative subjects. The heterozygous subjects declined more rapidly on the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Category Fluency Test than the subjects without the epsilon 4 allele or with epsilon homozygosity. The homozygous subjects declined faster on only one subscale: the Physical Capacity subscale of the Psychogeriatric Dependency Rating Scale. Covarying for age at onset did not affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: The ApoE genotype does not strongly influence the rate of decline in AD, implying that epsilon 4 might predispose to the development of the disease without accelerating its pathogenesis or progression. The effects of epsilon 4 on both age at onset and rate of decline need to be further investigated.

Relationship of serum copper and zinc levels to HIV-1 seropositivity and progression to AIDS.

Dietary, serum, and tissue levels of copper and zinc were determined at baseline in a cohort of homosexual men to investigate the relationship of these factors to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seropositivity and subsequent progression to AIDS. Using a nested case control design, 54 asymptomatic HIV-1 seropositives who later progressed to AIDS were compared with 54 HIV-1 seropositives who did not progress and 54 seronegatives (mean follow-up time 2.5 years). Serum levels of copper and zinc were estimated from frozen serum samples, tissue levels from stored toenail samples, and dietary intakes from a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Neither dietary copper and zinc nor their levels in toenails were associated with HIV-1 seropositivity or progression to AIDS. However, serum copper levels were higher (p = 0.002) in HIV-1-seropositive progressors (mean = 115.6 micrograms/dl; SD = 17.1) than the seropositive nonprogressors (mean = 109.0 micrograms/dl; SD = 15.8) and the seronegatives (mean = 101.9 micrograms/dl; SD = 16.7). Conversely, serum zinc levels were lower (p = 0.016) in the seropositive progressors (mean = 85.2 micrograms/dl; SD = 11.5) than the seropositive nonprogressors (mean = 90.7 micrograms/dl; SD = 12.0) and the seronegatives (mean = 92.0 micrograms/dl; SD = 14.7). Furthermore, in a logistic regression, higher serum copper (odds ratio per 20-micrograms/dl increase = 2.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-4.87) and lower serum zinc (odds ratio per 20-micrograms/dl increase = 0.30; 95% confidence interval = 0.14-0.66) predicted progression to AIDS independently of baseline CD4+ lymphocyte level, age, and calorie-adjusted dietary intakes of both nutrients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Age-specific incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-specific incidence rates of AD in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). BACKGROUND: The BLSA is a volunteer cohort of normal subjects followed longitudinally with biennial evaluations at the Gerontology Research Center of the National Institute on Aging. METHODS: Subjects are 1236 participants (802 men, 434 women) in the BLSA with longitudinal follow-up between January 1985 and May 1998. The average length of follow-up was 7.5 years, with participants evaluated every 2 years by physical, neurologic, and neuropsychological examinations. Using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd ed., revised and National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria, the authors diagnosed dementia and AD. RESULTS: The authors diagnosed 155 cases of dementia, of which 114 (74%) were AD. Incidence rates of AD increased with age from an estimated 0.08% per year (95% CI 0.00 to 0.43) in the 60 to 65 age group to an estimated 6.48% per year (95% CI 5.01 to 8.38) in the 85+ age group for men and women combined. The doubling time of incidence rates was estimated to be approximately 4.4 years and the median time of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to diagnosis of AD was estimated to be 4.4 years. There was a trend for women to have higher incidence rates than men and for fewer years of education to be associated with higher incidence rates; however, these effects were not significant. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates for AD in the BLSA are consistent with published rates in other studies. The longitudinally followed subjects of the BLSA offer a unique opportunity to prospectively investigate the antecedents of AD.

APOE genotype and survival in men and women with Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: The epsilon 4 allele of the APOE gene (APOE) is more frequent in patients with AD than in the general population, but studies are inconclusive as to whether it affects rate of progression or survival. Because survival in AD is generally longer in women than in men, the authors investigated whether APOE affects 10-year survival equally in men and women. METHODS: APOE testing was performed on 125 patients with probable AD enrolled in the Johns Hopkins AD Research Center between November 1984 and March 1987. The 39 men and 86 women were followed at 6-month intervals until censoring (by death or withdrawal from the study) or March 1997. Patients were dichotomized into those with and those without at least one epsilon 4 allele. For each sex, a Cox proportional hazards regression, allowing for delayed entry and covarying for age at onset, was used to examine the effect of epsilon 4 on survival. RESULTS: All patients who died during the study period and had autopsy (n = 92) were found to have definite AD. Average survival from disease onset did not differ by sex (12.1 years in men; 12.3 years in women). In neither sex were differences found between epsilon 4-positive and epsilon 4-negative subgroups in education, duration of AD at entry, or severity of dementia. However, in both sexes the epsilon 4-positive subgroup was approximately 3 years older at onset of AD and at entry to the study than the epsilon 4-negative subgroup. Adjusting for age at onset, the presence of an epsilon 4 allele significantly increased the relative risk of death only for men (RR = 2.69; 95% CI = 1.23 to 5.87). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of mostly white, well-educated research participants with AD, the APOE epsilon 4 allele was associated with shorter survival in men but not in women.

A prospective study of estrogen replacement therapy and the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease: the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging.

Previous reports have suggested that estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) in women may exert a protective effect on their risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated this relationship in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), a prospective multidisciplinary study of normal aging conducted by the National Institute on Aging. The sample consisted of 472 post- or perimenopausal women followed for up to 16 years in the BLSA. We documented ERT prospectively at each BLSA visit, and we categorized women who had used oral or transdermal estrogens at anytime as ERT users. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates to estimate the relative risk of developing AD after ERT as compared with women who had not used estrogen replacement. Approximately 45% of the women in the cohort had used ERT, and we diagnosed 34 incident cases of AD (NINCDS/ADRDA criteria) during follow-up, including nine estrogen users. After adjusting for education, the relative risk for AD in ERT users as compared with nonusers was 0.46 (95% CI, 0.209-0.997), indicating a reduced risk of AD for women who had reported the use of estrogen. Our data did not show an effect for duration of ERT usage. Our finding offers additional support for a protective influence of estrogen in AD. Randomized clinical trials are necessary to confirm this association, which could have significant public health impact.

U.S. nephrologists' attitudes towards renal transplantation: results from a national survey.

BACKGROUND: Renal transplantation is the optimal treatment for persons with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A shortage of kidneys in the U.S. has focused increasing attention on the process by which kidneys are allocated. A national survey was undertaken to determine the relative importance of both clinical and nonclinical factors in the recommendation for renal transplantation by U.S. nephrologists. METHODS: We conducted a national random survey of 271 U.S. nephrologists using hypothetical patient scenarios to determine their recommendation for renal transplantation based on demographic, clinical, and social factors. Specifically, eight unique patient scenarios were randomly distributed to each survey respondent. RESULTS: According to responding nephrologists (response rate 53%), females were less likely than males to be recommended for renal transplantation [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=0.41; confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.79; for whites]. Asian males were less likely than white males to be recommended for transplantation (OR=0.46, CI 0.24, 0.91). Black-white differences in rates of recommendation were not found. Other factors associated with low rates of recommendation for renal transplantation included history of noncompliance (OR=0.17, CI 0.13, 0.23), <25% cardiac ejection fraction (OR=0.15, CI 0.10, 0.21), HIV infection (OR=0.01, CI 0.00, 0.01), and being >200 lbs (OR=0.73, CI 0.56, 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Female gender, and Asian but not black race, were associated with a decreased likelihood that nephrologists would recommend renal transplantation for patients with end stage renal disease. The well-documented black-white disparities in use of renal transplantation may be due to unaccounted for factors or may arise at a subsequent step in the transplantation process.

The evolution of virus diseases: their emergence, epidemicity, and control.

The evolution of virus diseases, both their emergence and disappearance, involves complex interactions between the agent, the host, and the environment. These themes are illustrated by three examples, poliomyelitis of humans, bovine spongiform encephalopathy of cattle, and AIDS of humans. Emergence may be due to evolution of the virus genome, such as probably occurred in parvovirus infection of dogs and human immunodeficiency virus infection of humans. However, emergence of some new viral diseases can be traced to host or environmental factors with no change in the agent. Poliomyelitis, an enteric infection, probably emerged as an epidemic disease due to improvements in personal hygiene and public sanitation which led to a delay in the occurrence of initial infections from the perinatal period (when maternal antibody protected against paralysis) to later childhood when passive immunity had waned. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy is a common source epidemic which was transmitted through nutritional supplements which became contaminated due to a change in the method of production of bone meal supplements in rendering plants. The reduction of disappearance of virus diseases usually involves human intervention, as exemplified by immunization for smallpox and other virus diseases of humans and animals. Naturally occurring immunity may lead to fadeout of a virus as seen with measles in isolated island populations. Evolution of a virus can also result in waning of a disease as seen with myxomatosis among rabbits in Australia. The evolution of virus diseases is a provocative scientific topic and carries lessons relevant to the control of important diseases of humans, animals, and plants.

US nephrologists' recommendation of dialysis modality: results of a national survey.

Selection of a dialysis modality for persons with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has important lifestyle and occupational implications. The factors affecting modality choice remain unclear, resulting in a low rate of peritoneal dialysis (PD) in the United States compared with other countries. A national survey of 271 US nephrologists was conducted from June 1997 to June 1998 to assess the relative importance of nonclinical and clinical factors related to dialysis modality selection for patients with ESRD. Hypothetical patient scenarios were randomly assigned to nephrologists to determine their recommendation for dialytic therapy based on patient demographic, clinical, and social factors. US nephrologists were more likely to recommend PD for men with ESRD compared with women (39% versus 33%; P: < 0.05; adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.80), as well as for patients with good compliance (adjusted odds ratio, 11.80; 95% confidence interval, 9.29 to 15.01), weight less than 200 lb (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 2.9), residual renal function (adjusted odds ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.71 to 2.70), absence of diabetes (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 2.5), and living with family (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.1). Nephrologists in practice for 11 or more years were less likely to recommend PD. The association of male sex with PD therapy suggests a potential bias or sensitivity to women's perception of body image. Race was not associated with PD recommendations after controlling for other demographic and clinical characteristics. Because the incident US ESRD population is increasingly characterized by factors associated with not selecting PD (diabetes, obesity, malnourishment, living alone, and substance abuse problems), our results suggest that PD use may decrease over time.

Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease.

The development of effective disease prevention and treatment programs depends on an understanding of the natural history of disease. A conceptual framework is presented for disease natural history and consists of an asymptomatic period of disease followed by a period of symptomatic disease. The focus is on epidemiologic studies for identifying risk factors of the onset of asymptomatic disease, for identifying cofactors of progression to symptomatic disease, and for estimating the duration of the asymptomatic period. The strengths and limitations of various epidemiologic study designs and sources of epidemiologic data are considered for characterizing disease natural history. Issues in the interpretation and analysis of natural history parameters of disease estimated from cross-sectional, prevalent cohort, cohort, and matched case-control studies are considered. The issues and analytic methods are illustrated with studies of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and cervical cancer. Based on these analytic methods, an estimate of the incubation period distribution of AIDS is given.