Insights from Adding Transportation Sector Detail into an Economy-Wide Model: The Case of the ADAGE CGE Model.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide impacts of anticipated future structural changes in the transportation sector, yet few CGE models offer detailed transportation representations. We use an enhanced Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) CGE model to incorporate disaggregated transportation modes and technologies in on-road passenger and freight transportation. We assess the impacts of these inclusions on U.S. transportation patterns, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating illustrative global oil price cases with and without transportation detail, we find subsector mode disaggregation and technology additions in a CGE model significantly alter the impacts of oil prices on global trade and freight patterns, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that: (1) alternative technologies are essential for capturing transportation sector impacts, (2) electrification may reduce emissions with electricity decarbonization, and (3) higher oil prices may hasten electrification.

Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture.

Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.

Importance of Cross-Sector Interactions When Projecting Forest Carbon across Alternative Socioeconomic Futures.

In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing net GHG emissions, the less mitigation is needed from other sectors. Conversely, if the forest sector begins to contribute a smaller sink, or even becomes a net source, mitigation requirements from other sectors may need to become more stringent and costlier to achieve economy wide emissions targets. There is acknowledged uncertainty in estimates of the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector, attributable to large ranges in the projections of, among other things, future economic conditions, population growth, policy implementation, and technological advancement. We examined these drivers in the context of an economic model of the agricultural and forestry sectors, to demonstrate the importance of cross-sector interactions on projections of emissions and carbon sequestration. Using this model, we compared detailed scenarios that differ in their assumptions of demand for agriculture and forestry products, trade, rates of (sub)urbanization, and limits on timber harvest on protected lands. We found that a scenario assuming higher demand and more trade for forest products resulted in increased forest growth and larger net GHG sequestration, while a scenario featuring higher agricultural demand, ceteris paribus led to forest land conversion and increased anthropogenic emissions. Importantly, when high demand scenarios are implemented conjunctively, agricultural sector emissions under a high income-growth world with increased livestock-product demand are fully displaced by substantial GHG sequestration from the forest sector with increased forest product demand. This finding highlights the potential limitations of single-sector modeling approaches that ignore important interaction effects between sectors.

Logging residue supply and costs for electricity generation: Potential variability and policy considerations.

This paper applies a spatial allocation optimization model to evaluate logging residue supply potential and costs for bioelectricity generation within the conterminous United States. Simulations are developed to estimate a range in supply potential and costs across a broad range of sensitivity scenarios, including (1) different biomass availability rates based on observed roundwood removals, (2) renewable energy targets set nationally or at a state-level, (3) with and without biomass sourcing restrictions within a state, (4) with and without access to public lands, and (5) policy restrictions on eligible facility types. Under the least restrictive policy scenario (a hypothetical national mandate), total supply is 8.8 million dry tons (MDT) at $20/DT and increases to 32.5 MDT at $80/DT. Results fall within the range of previous logging residue supply studies in the U.S., including the last two Billion Ton reports. Results from this paper offer important policy insight into the potential cost efficiency of a flexible policy design. Sensitivity scenarios show potential supply cost increases that could result from policies imposing regional restrictions, limiting access to public lands, and restricting eligible facilities. Restricting biomass supply sources within state boundaries reduces total supply up to 10% relative to an unrestricted national policy.

Karyopherin Alpha 2 Promotes the Inflammatory Response in Rat Pancreatic Acinar Cells Via Facilitating NF-κB Activation.

BACKGROUND: Activation of the transcription factor NF-κB and expression of pro-inflammatory mediators have been considered as major events of acute pancreatitis (AP). Karyopherin alpha 2 (KPNA2), a member of the importin α family, reportedly modulates p65 subcellular localization. AIM: This study aimed to investigate the expression and possible functions of KPNA2 in the AP cell and animal model, focusing on its association with NF-κB activation. METHODS: An AP cell model was established with the cerulein-stimulated AR42J and isolated rat pancreatic acinar cells. The AP rat model was induced by the intraperitoneal injection of cerulein. The secretion of TNF-α, IL-6, and LDH was detected by ELISA kits and the production of NO using nitric oxide kit. Expression of KPNA2 was measured by RT-PCR and Western blot. Expression levels of IKKα, phosphorylation of p65, and total p65 were detected by Western blot. Co-localization of KPNA2 with p65 was observed by immunofluorescence assay. To determine the biological functions of KPNA2 in cerulein-induced inflammatory response, RNA interference was employed to knockdown KPNA2 expression in AR42J and isolated pancreatic acini cells. RESULTS: Cerulein stimulated KPNA2 expression and IL-6, TNF-α, NO, and LDH production in rat pancreatic acinar cells. Cerulein triggered the phosphorylation and nuclear translocation of NF-κB p65 subunit, indicating the NF-κB activation. The co-localization and nuclear accumulation of KPNA2 and p65 were detected in cerulein-treated cells. Knocking down KPNA2 hindered cerulein-induced nuclear transportation of p65 and alleviated the subsequent inflammatory response in rat pancreatic acinar cells. Additionally, KPNA2 expression was significantly up-regulated in cerulein-induced AP rat model. CONCLUSIONS: KPNA2-facilitated p65 nuclear translocation promotes NF-κB activation and inflammation in acute pancreatitis.

OGT-mediated O-GlcNAcylation promotes NF-κB activation and inflammation in acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: Activation of the transcription factor κB (NF-κB) and secretion of pro-inflammatory mediators are major events in acute pancreatitis (AP). Recently, O-linked-N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) modification, one type of posttranslational modifications, reportedly attunes NF-κB function. However, the expression of O-GlcNAc transferase (OGT), the enzyme responsible for O-GlcNAcylation of proteins, in AP, and the possible contribution of OGT-mediated O-GlcNAcylation to the NF-κB inflammatory activation in pancreatic acinar cells and to the AP progression have not been understood. This study focused on the effects and mechanisms of OGT-mediated O-GlcNAcylation during AP. METHODS: An AP cell model was established with the caerulein-stimulated AR42 J rat pancreatic acinar cells. The secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α was detected by ELISA kits, and the production of NO was determined using the colorimetric Griess reaction. Expression of OGT was measured by RT-PCR and Western blot. Expression levels of RL2, phosphorylation of p65, total p65, IKKα were detected by Western blot. The NF-κB activity was evaluated by luciferase reporter gene assay. To determine the biological functions of OGT in caerulein-induced inflammatory response, RNA interference and PUGNAc, the inhibitor of O-GlcNAcase (OGA) was employed to regulate OGT expression in AR42 J cells. RESULTS: Caerulein significantly up-regulated the expression of OGT, and increased the global protein O-GlcNAcylation level in AR42 J cells. Reduction of OGT by small interfering RNA (siRNA) inhibited caerulein-triggered inflammation, assessed by the production of pro-inflammatory mediators (TNF-α and NO). We also demonstrated that O-GlcNAcylation directly modified the NF-κB p65 subunit and its upstream activating kinases IKKα in AR42 J cells. Lowering O-GlcNAcylation by OGT knockdown attenuated p65 activating phosphorylation, nuclear translocation, NF-κB transcriptional activity and levels of NF-κB transcriptional targets TNF-α and NO; on the contrary, elevating O-GlcNAc through PUGNAc increased IKKα and p65 O-GlcNAcylation accompanied by increased p65 phosphorylation, activity and levels of TNF-α and NO in caerulein-treated cells. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate for the first time that OGT-mediated O-GlcNAcylation promotes NF-κB signaling activation and inflammation in pancreatic acinar cells, which might promote the progression of AP.

Oxidative stress and acute pancreatitis (Review).

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory disorder of the exocrine pancreas that causes severe morbidity and mortality. Although the pathophysiology of AP is poorly understood, a substantial body of evidence suggests some critical events for this disease, such as dysregulation of digestive enzyme production, cytoplasmic vacuolization, acinar cell death, edema formation, and inflammatory cell infiltration into the pancreas. Oxidative stress plays a role in the acute inflammatory response. The present review clarified the role of oxidative stress in the occurrence and development of AP by introducing oxidative stress to disrupt cellular Ca2+ balance and stimulating transcription factor activation and excessive release of inflammatory mediators for the application of antioxidant adjuvant therapy in the treatment of AP.

Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

Implications of Alternative Land Conversion Cost Specifications on Projected Afforestation Potential in the United States.

The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector (constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs, and dynamic rising marginal cost) were run in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.

TRAM1 protects AR42J cells from caerulein-induced acute pancreatitis through ER stress-apoptosis pathway.

Chronic endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in pancreatic acinar cells has emerged as a major contributor to the recovery of acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the molecular mechanisms linking AP and ER stress remain not fully understood. In this study, we employed caerulein to induce AP-like inflammation in the AR42J rat pancreatic acinar cells to mimic the AP-like acinar cell injury. Caerulein can activate ER stress in AR42J cells, but the molecular link between AP and ER stress remains to be identified. We here reported that translocating chain-associated membrane protein 1 (TRAM1), an ER-resident multispanning membrane protein, was involved in the onset of AP-like injury on AR42J cells. TRAM1 was significantly elevated in caerulein-treated AR42J cells. Furthermore, we showed that knockdown of TRAM1 led to hyperactivation of 78 kDa glucose-regulated protein precursor (GRP78) and C/EBP homologous protein (CHOP) and the activation of downstream apoptosis pathway. Given the fact that the activation of ER stress played a protection role in AP, the pro-inflammatory mediators TNF-α and IL-6 and the marker of cell injury LDH were also analyzed. We found that depletion of TRAM1 markedly increased the secretion of TNF-α, IL-6, and LDH in the cells. Moreover, flow cytometry indicated that treatment with caerulein induced a significant decrease of apoptotic index and increase of necrosis index in TRAM1-siRNA cells, compared with control groups, as indicated by downregulated expression of cleaved caspase-3, caspase-8, and caspase-9 mRNA expression activity in TRAM1-siRNA cells. These data implicated that TRAM1 might protect AR42J cells against caerulein-induced AP in AR42J cells through alleviating ER stress.

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.