A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS: In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION: Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Associations between drug burden index and falls in older people in residential aged care.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between the Drug Burden Index (DBI), a measure of a person's total exposure to anticholinergic and sedative medications that includes principles of dose-response and maximal effect and is associated with impaired physical function in community-dwelling older people, and falls in residents of residential aged care facilities (RACFs). DESIGN: Data were drawn from participants in a randomized controlled trial that investigated falls and fractures. SETTING: RACFs in Sydney, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Study participants (N=602; 70.9% female) were recruited from 51 RACFs. Mean age was 85.7 ± 6.4, and mean DBI was 0.60 ± 0.66. MEASUREMENTS: Medication history was obtained on each participant. Drugs were classified as anticholinergic or sedative and a DBI was calculated. Falls were measured over a 12-month period. Comorbidity, cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination) and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale) were determined. RESULTS: There were 998 falls in 330 individuals during a follow-up period of 574.2 person-years, equating to an average rate of 1.74 falls per person-year. The univariate negative binomial regression model for falls showed incidence rate ratios of 1.69 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.22-2.34) for low DBI (<1) and 2.11 (95% CI=1.47-3.04) for high DBI (≥1) when compared with those who had a DBI of 0. After adjusting for age, sex, history of falling, cognitive impairment, depression, use of a walking aid, comorbidities, polypharmacy, and incontinence, incident rate ratios of 1.61 (95% CI=1.17-2.23) for low DBI and 1.90 (95% CI=1.30-2.78) for high DBI were obtained. CONCLUSION: DBI is significantly and independently associated with falls in older people living in RACFs. Interventional studies designed for this population are needed to determine whether reducing DBI, through dose reduction or cessation of anticholinergic and sedative drugs, can prevent falls.