Water Distribution System Failure Risks with Increasing Temperatures.

In the coming decades, ambient temperature increase from climate change threatens to reduce not only the availability of water but also the operational reliability of engineered water systems. Relatively little is known about how temperature stress can increasingly cause hardware components to fail, quality to be affected, and service outages to occur. Changes to the estimated-time-to-failure of major water system hardware and the probability of quality noncompliance were estimated for a modern potable water system that experiences hot summer temperatures, similar to Phoenix, AZ, and Las Vegas, NV. A fault tree model was developed to estimate the probability that consequential service outages in quantity and quality will occur. Component failures are projected to have a percent increase of 10-101% in scenarios where peak summer temperature has increased from 36 to 44 °C, which create the conditions for service outages to have a percent increase of 7-91%. Increased service outages due to multiple pumping unit failures and water quality noncompliances are the most notable concerns for water utilities. The most effective strategies to prevent temperature-related failures should focus on monitoring and correcting chlorine residual and disinfection byproduct concentration, and on cooling pumping unit motors and electronics.

Spatial Differences and Costs of Emissions at U.S. Airport Hubs.

As local governments plan to expand airport infrastructure and build air service, monetized estimates of damages from air pollution are important for balancing environmental impacts. While it is well-known that aircraft emissions near airports directly affect nearby populations, it is less clear how the airport-specific aircraft operations and impacts result in monetized damages to human health and the environment. We model aircraft and ground support equipment emissions at major U.S. airports and estimate the monetized human health and environmental damages of near airport (within 60 miles) emissions. County-specific unit damage costs for PM, SOx, NOx, and VOCs and damage valuations for CO and CO2 are used along with aircraft emissions estimations at airports to determine impacts. We find that near-airport emissions at major U.S. airports caused a total of $1.9 billion in damages in 2013, with airports contributing between $720 thousand and $190 million each. These damages vary by airport from $1 to $9 per seat per one-way flight and costs per passenger are often greater than airport charges levied on airlines for infrastructure use. As the U.S. aviation system grows, it is possible to minimize human and environmental costs by shifting aircraft technologies and expanding service into airports where fewer impacts are likely to occur.

Improving the accuracy of vehicle emissions profiles for urban transportation greenhouse gas and air pollution inventories.

Metropolitan greenhouse gas and air emissions inventories can better account for the variability in vehicle movement, fleet composition, and infrastructure that exists within and between regions, to develop more accurate information for environmental goals. With emerging access to high quality data, new methods are needed for informing transportation emissions assessment practitioners of the relevant vehicle and infrastructure characteristics that should be prioritized in modeling to improve the accuracy of inventories. The sensitivity of light and heavy-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) and conventional air pollutant (CAP) emissions to speed, weight, age, and roadway gradient are examined with second-by-second velocity profiles on freeway and arterial roads under free-flow and congestion scenarios. By creating upper and lower bounds for each factor, the potential variability which could exist in transportation emissions assessments is estimated. When comparing the effects of changes in these characteristics across U.S. cities against average characteristics of the U.S. fleet and infrastructure, significant variability in emissions is found to exist. GHGs from light-duty vehicles could vary by -2%-11% and CAP by -47%-228% when compared to the baseline. For heavy-duty vehicles, the variability is -21%-55% and -32%-174%, respectively. The results show that cities should more aggressively pursue the integration of emerging big data into regional transportation emissions modeling, and the integration of these data is likely to impact GHG and CAP inventories and how aggressively policies should be implemented to meet reductions. A web-tool is developed to aide cities in improving emissions uncertainty.

The conservation nexus: valuing interdependent water and energy savings in Arizona.

Water and energy resources are intrinsically linked, yet they are managed separately--even in the water-scarce American southwest. This study develops a spatially explicit model of water-energy interdependencies in Arizona and assesses the potential for cobeneficial conservation programs. The interdependent benefits of investments in eight conservation strategies are assessed within the context of legislated renewable energy portfolio and energy efficiency standards. The cobenefits of conservation are found to be significant. Water conservation policies have the potential to reduce statewide electricity demand by 0.82-3.1%, satisfying 4.1-16% of the state's mandated energy-efficiency standard. Adoption of energy-efficiency measures and renewable generation portfolios can reduce nonagricultural water demand by 1.9-15%. These conservation cobenefits are typically not included in conservation plans or benefit-cost analyses. Many cobenefits offer negative costs of saved water and energy, indicating that these measures provide water and energy savings at no net cost. Because ranges of costs and savings for water-energy conservation measures are somewhat uncertain, future studies should investigate the cobenefits of individual conservation strategies in detail. Although this study focuses on Arizona, the analysis can be extended elsewhere as renewable portfolio and energy efficiency standards become more common nationally and internationally.

Siting is a constraint to realize environmental benefits from carbon capture and storage.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal power plants reduces onsite carbon dioxide emissions, but affects other air emissions on and offsite. This research assesses the net societal benefits and costs of Monoethanolamine (MEA) CCS, valuing changes in emissions of CO2, SO2, NOX, NH3 and particulate matter (PM), including those in the supply chain. Geographical variability and stochastic uncertainty for 407 coal power plant locations in the U.S. are analyzed. The results show that the net environmental benefits and costs of MEA CCS depend critically on location. For a few favorable sites of both power plant and upstream processes, CCS realizes a net benefit (benefit-cost ratio >1) if the social cost of carbon exceeds $51/ton. For much of the U.S. however, the social cost of carbon must be much higher to realize net benefits from CCS, up to a maximum of $910/ton. While the social costs of carbon are uncertain, typical estimates are in the range of $32-220 per ton, much lower than the breakeven value for many potential CCS locations. Increased impacts upstream from the power plant can dramatically change the social acceptability of CCS and needs further consideration and analysis.

Intertemporal cumulative radiative forcing effects of photovoltaic deployments.

Current policies accelerating photovoltaics (PV) deployments are motivated by environmental goals, including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing electricity generated from fossil-fuels. Existing practice assesses environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where displaced GHG emissions offset those generated during PV production. However, this approach does not consider that the environmental costs of GHG release during production are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where policy targets suggest meeting GHG reduction goals established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counterintuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. On a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood, particularly when PV manufacturing utilizes GHG-intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less GHG-intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydroelectric). This paper details a dynamic CRF model to examine the intertemporal warming impacts of PV deployments in California and Wyoming. CRF payback times are longer than GHG payback times by 6-12 years in California and 6-11 years in Wyoming depending on the PV technology mix and deployment strategy. For the same PV capacity being deployed, early installations yield greater CRF benefits (calculated over 10 and 25 years) than installations occurring later in time. Further, CRF benefits are maximized when PV technologies with the lowest manufacturing GHG footprint (cadmium telluride) are deployed in locations with the most GHG-intensive grids (i.e., Wyoming).

Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits.

We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO(2) emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.

Integrating life-cycle environmental and economic assessment with transportation and land use planning.

The environmental outcomes of urban form changes should couple life-cycle and behavioral assessment methods to better understand urban sustainability policy outcomes. Using Phoenix, Arizona light rail as a case study, an integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment (ITLU-LCA) framework is developed to assess the changes to energy consumption and air emissions from transit-oriented neighborhood designs. Residential travel, commercial travel, and building energy use are included and the framework integrates household behavior change assessment to explore the environmental and economic outcomes of policies that affect infrastructure. The results show that upfront environmental and economic investments are needed (through more energy-intense building materials for high-density structures) to produce long run benefits in reduced building energy use and automobile travel. The annualized life-cycle benefits of transit-oriented developments in Phoenix can range from 1.7 to 230 Gg CO2e depending on the aggressiveness of residential density. Midpoint impact stressors for respiratory effects and photochemical smog formation are also assessed and can be reduced by 1.2-170 Mg PM10e and 41-5200 Mg O3e annually. These benefits will come at an additional construction cost of up to $410 million resulting in a cost of avoided CO2e at $16-29 and household cost savings.

Interdependence of social-ecological-technological systems in Phoenix, Arizona: consequences of an extreme precipitation event.

Complex adaptive systems - such as critical infrastructures (CI) - are defined by their vast, multi-level interactions and emergent behaviors, but this elaborate web of interactions often conceals relationships. For instance, CI is often reduced to technological components, ignoring that social and ecological components are also embedded, leading to unintentional consequences from disturbance events. Analysis of CI as social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) can support integrated decision-making and increase infrastructure's capacity for resilience to climate change. We assess the impacts of an extreme precipitation event in Phoenix, AZ to identify pathways of disruption and feedback loops across SETS as presented in an illustrative causal loop diagram, developed through semi-structured interviews with researchers and practitioners and cross-validated with a literature review. The causal loop diagram consists of 19 components resulting in hundreds of feedback loops and cascading failures, with surface runoff, infiltration, and water bodies as well as power, water, and transportation infrastructures appearing to have critical roles in maintaining system services. We found that pathways of disruptions highlight potential weak spots within the system that could benefit from climate adaptation, and feedback loops may serve as potential tools to divert failure at the root cause. This method of convergence research shows potential as a useful tool to illustrate a broader perspective of urban systems and address the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the Anthropocene. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43065-023-00085-6.

Sustainable irrigation and climate feedbacks.

Agricultural irrigation induces greenhouse gas emissions directly from soils or indirectly through the use of energy or construction of dams and irrigation infrastructure, while climate change affects irrigation demand, water availability and the greenhouse gas intensity of irrigation energy. Here, we present a scoping review to elaborate on these irrigation-climate linkages by synthesizing knowledge across different fields, emphasizing the growing role climate change may have in driving future irrigation expansion and reinforcing some of the positive feedbacks. This Review underscores the urgent need to promote and adopt sustainable irrigation, especially in regions dominated by strong, positive feedbacks.

Human health tradeoffs in wellhead drinking water treatment: Comparing exposure reduction to embedded life cycle risks.

Treatment of drinking water decreases human health risks by reducing pollutants, but the required materials, chemicals, and energy emit pollutants and increase health risks. We explored human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic disease tradeoffs of water treatment by comparing pollutant dose-response curves against life cycle burden using USEtox methodology. An illustrative wellhead sorbent groundwater treatment system removing hexavalent chromium or pentavalent arsenic serving 3200 people was studied. Reducing pollutant concentrations in drinking water from 20 µg L-1 to 10 µg L-1 avoided 37 potential cancer cases and 64 potential non-cancer disease cases. Human carcinogenicity embedded in treatment was 0.2-5.3 cases, and non-carcinogenic toxicity was 0.2-14.3 cases, depending on technology and degree of treatment. Embedded toxicity impacts from treating Cr(VI) using strong-base anion exchange were <10% of those from using weak base anion exchange. Acidification and neutralization contributed >90% of the toxicity impacts for treatment options requiring pH control. In scenarios where benefits exceeded burdens, tradeoffs still existed. Benefits are experienced by a local population but burdens are born externally where the materials and energy are produced, thus exporting the health risks. Even when burdens clearly exceeded benefits, cost considerations may still drive selecting a detrimental treatment level or technology.

Heat exposure during outdoor activities in the US varies significantly by city, demography, and activity.

Environmental heat is a growing public health concern in cities. Urbanization and global climate change threaten to exacerbate heat as an already significant environmental cause of human morbidity and mortality. Despite increasing risk, very little is known regarding determinants of outdoor urban heat exposure. To provide additional evidence for building community and national-scale resilience to extreme heat, we assess how US outdoor urban heat exposure varies by city, demography, and activity. We estimate outdoor urban heat exposure by pairing individual-level data from the American Time Use Survey (2004-2015) with corresponding meteorological data for 50 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the US. We also assess the intersection of activity intensity and heat exposure by pairing metabolic intensities with individual-level time-use data. We model an empirical relationship between demographic indicators and daily heat exposure with controls for spatiotemporal factors. We find higher outdoor heat exposure among the elderly and low-income individuals, and lower outdoor heat exposure in females, young adults, and those identifying as Black race. Traveling, lawn and garden care, and recreation are the most common outdoor activities to contribute to heat exposure. We also find individuals in cities with the most extreme temperatures do not necessarily have the highest outdoor heat exposure. The findings reveal large contrasts in outdoor heat exposure between different cities, demographic groups, and activities. Resolving the interplay between exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and behavior as determinants of heat-health risk will require advances in observational and modeling tools, especially at the individual scale.

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.

Heat Death Associations with the built environment, social vulnerability and their interactions with rising temperature.

In an extreme heat event, people can go to air-conditioned public facilities if residential air-conditioning is not available. Residences that heat slowly may also mitigate health effects, particularly in neighborhoods with social vulnerability. We explored the contributions of social vulnerability and these infrastructures to heat mortality in Maricopa County and whether these relationships are sensitive to temperature. Using Poisson regression modeling with heat-related mortality as the outcome, we assessed the interaction of increasing temperature with social vulnerability, access to publicly available air conditioned space, home air conditioning and the thermal properties of residences. As temperatures increase, mortality from heat-related illness increases less in census tracts with more publicly accessible cooled spaces. Mortality from all internal causes of death did not have this association. Building thermal protection was not associated with mortality. Social vulnerability was still associated with mortality after adjusting for the infrastructure variables. To reduce heat-related mortality, the use of public cooled spaces might be expanded to target the most vulnerable.

Cellulosic ethanol from municipal solid waste: a case study of the economic, energy, and greenhouse gas impacts in California.

As cellulosic ethanol technologies advance, states could use the organic content of municipal solid waste as a transportation fuel feedstock and simultaneously reduce externalities associated with waste disposal. We examine the major processes required to support a lignocellulosic (employing enzymatic hydrolysis) municipal solid waste-to-ethanol infrastructure computing cost, energy, and greenhouse gas effects for California. The infrastructure is compared against the Business As Usual case where the state continues to import most of its ethanol needs from the Midwest. Assuming between 60% and 90% practical yields for ethanol production, California could produce between 1.0 and 1.5 billion gallons per year of ethanol from 55% of the 40 million metric tonnes of waste currently sent to landfills annually. The classification of organic wastes and ethanol plant operation represent almost the entire system cost (between $3.5 and $4.5 billion annually) while distribution has negligible cost effects and savings from avoided landfilling is small. Fossil energy consumption from Business As Usual decreases between 82 and 130 PJ largely due to foregone gasoline consumption. The net greenhouse gas impacts are ultimately dependent on how well landfills control their emissions of decomposing organics. Based on the current landfill mix in the state, the cellulosic infrastructure would experience a slight gain in greenhouse gas emissions. However, net emissions can rise if organics diversion releases carbon that would otherwise be flared and sequestered. Emissions would be avoided if landfills are not capable of effectively controlling emissions during periods of active waste decay. There is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the recovery efficiency of landfill emissions controls. In either case, burying lignin appears to be better than burning lignin because of its decay properties, energy and carbon content We estimate the breakeven price for lignocellulosic ethanol between $2.90 and $3.47/gal (mu = $3.13/gal).

Energy, greenhouse gas, and cost reductions for municipal recycling systems.

Curbside recycling programs can be more cost-effective than landfilling and lead to environmental benefits from the recovery of materials. Significant reductions in energy and emissions are derived from the decrease of energy-intensive production with virgin materials. In many cities, competing priorities can lead to limited consideration given to system optimal collection and processing strategies that can drive down costs and increase revenue while simultaneously reducing system energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We evaluate three alterations to a hypothetical California city's recycling network to discern the conditions under which the changes.constitute system improvements to cost, energy, and emissions. The system initially operates with a collection zoning scheme that does not mitigate the impact of seasonal variations in consumer tonnage. In addition, two collection organizations operate redundantly, collecting recyclables from different customer types on the same street network. Finally, the system is dual stream, meaning recyclables are separated at the curbside. In some scenarios, this practice can limit the consumer participation rate leading to lower collection quantities. First, we evaluate a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario and find that the system operates at a $1.7 M/yr loss but still avoids a net 18.7 GJ and 1700 kg of greenhouse gas equivalent (GGE) per ton of material recycled. Second, we apply an alternative zoning scheme for collection that creates a uniform daily pickup demand throughout the year reducing costs by $0.2 M/yr, energy by 30 MJ/ton, and GHG emissions by 2 kg GGE/ton. Next, the two collection organizations are consolidated into a single entity further reducing vehicle fleet size and weekly vehicle miles traveled resulting in savings from BAU of $0.3 M/yr, 100 MJ/ton, and 8 kg GGE/ton. Lastly, we evaluate a switch to a single-stream system (where recyclables are commingled). We showthat single-stream recycling can increase the total amount of material collected to a degree that lowers overall net cost ($0.2 M/yr) and leads to further reductions in energy use (210 MJ/ton) and emissions(16 kg GGEton). However,there can be circumstances in which maintaining a consolidated dual stream system is preferred over single stream. A sensitivity analysis is also performed and a discussion is presented addressing the applicability of this city network to others.