Assessing the potential for demographic restoration and assisted evolution to build climate resilience in coral reefs.

Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef-dependent fauna, prevent colonization from spatial competitors, and enhance coral reproductive output. In addition to such "demographic restoration" efforts, manipulating the thermal tolerance of outplanted colonies through assisted relocation, selective breeding, or genetic engineering is being considered for enhancing rates of evolutionary adaptation to warming. Although research into such "assisted evolution" strategies has been growing, their expected performance remains unclear. We evaluated the potential outcomes of demographic restoration and assisted evolution in climate change scenarios using an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We found that supplementing reefs with pre-existing genotypes (demographic restoration) offers little climate resilience benefits unless input levels are large and maintained for centuries. Supplementation with thermally resistant colonies was successful at improving coral cover at lower input levels, but only if maintained for at least a century. Overall, we found that, although demographic restoration and assisted evolution have the potential to improve long-term coral cover, both approaches had a limited impact in preventing severe declines under climate change scenarios. Conversely, with sufficient natural genetic variance and time, corals could readily adapt to warming temperatures, suggesting that restoration approaches focused on building genetic variance may outperform those based solely on introducing heat-tolerant genotypes.

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle.

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

Do spatial scale and life history affect fish-habitat relationships?

Understanding how animals interact with their environment is a fundamental ecological question with important implications for conservation and management. The relationships between animals and their habitat, however, can be scale-dependent. If ecologists work at suboptimal spatial scales, they will gain an incomplete picture of how animals respond to the landscape. Identifying the scale at which animal-landscape relationships are strongest (the "scale of effect") will improve our ability to better plan management and conservation activities. Several recent studies have greatly enhanced our knowledge about the scale of effect, and the potential drivers of interspecific variability, in particular life-history traits. However, while many marine systems are inherently multiscalar, research into the scale of effect has been mainly focussed on terrestrial taxa. As the scales of observation in fish-habitat association studies are often selected based on convention rather than biological reasoning, they may provide an incomplete picture of the scales where these associations are strongest. We examined fish-habitat associations across four nested spatial scales in a temperate reef system to ask: (a) at what scale are fish-habitat associations the strongest, (b) are habitat elements consistently important across scales, and (c) do scale-dependent fish-habitat associations vary in relation to either body size, geographic range size or trophic level? We found that: (a) the strongest fish-habitat associations were observed when these relationships were examined at considerably larger spatial scales than usually investigated; (b) the importance of environmental predictors varied across spatial scales, indicating that conclusions about the importance of habitat elements will depend on the scales at which studies are undertaken; and (c) scale-dependent fish-habitat associations were consistent across all life-history traits. Our results highlight the importance of considering how animals relate to their environment and suggest the small scales often chosen to examine fish-habitat associations are likely to be suboptimal. Developing a more mechanistic understanding of animal-habitat associations will greatly aid in predicting and managing responses to future anthropogenic disturbances.

Evolution reverses the effect of network structure on metapopulation persistence.

Global environmental change is challenging species with novel conditions, such that demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations are often shaped by the exchange of organisms and alleles across landscapes. Current ecological theory predicts that random networks with dispersal shortcuts connecting distant sites can promote persistence when there is no capacity for evolution. Here, we show with an eco-evolutionary model that dispersal shortcuts across environmental gradients instead hinder persistence for populations that can evolve because long-distance migrants bring extreme trait values that are often maladaptive, short-circuiting the adaptive response of populations to directional change. Our results demonstrate that incorporating evolution and environmental heterogeneity fundamentally alters theoretical predictions regarding persistence in ecological networks.

Who Should Pick the Winners of Climate Change?

Many conservation strategies identify a narrow subset of genotypes, species, or geographic locations that are predicted to be favored under different scenarios of future climate change. However, a focus on predicted winners, which might not prove to be correct, risks undervaluing the balance of biological diversity from which climate-change winners could otherwise emerge. Drawing on ecology, evolutionary biology, and portfolio theory, we propose a conservation approach designed to promote adaptation that is less dependent on uncertain predictions about the identity of winners and losers. By designing actions to facilitate numerous opportunities for selection across biological and environmental conditions, we can allow nature to pick the winners and increase the probability that ecosystems continue to provide services to humans and other species.