Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models.

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.

Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.

Expression screen by enzyme-linked immunofiltration assay designed for high-throughput purification of affinity-tagged proteins.

High-throughput purification of affinity-tagged fusion proteins is currently one of the fastest developing areas of molecular proteomics. A prerequisite for success in protein purification is sufficient soluble protein expression of the target protein in a heterologous host. Hence, a fast and quantitative evaluation of the soluble-protein levels in an expression system is one of the key steps in the entire process. Here we describe a high-throughput expression screen for affinity-tagged fusion proteins based on an enzyme linked immunofiltration assay (ELIFA). An aliquot of a crude Escherichia coli extract containing the analyte, an affinity-tagged protein, is adsorbed onto the membrane. Subsequent binding of specific antibodies followed by binding of a secondary antibody horseradish peroxidase (HRP) complex then allows quantitative evaluation of the analyte using tetramethylbenzidine as the substrate for HRP. The method is accurate and quantitative, as shown by comparison with results from western blotting and an enzymatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) assay. Furthermore, it is a far more rapid assay and less cumbersome than western blotting, lending itself more readily to high-throughput analysis. It can be used at the expression level (cell lysates) or during the subsequent purification steps to monitor yield of specific protein.