Population-based study of event-rate, incidence, case fatality, and mortality for all acute vascular events in all arterial territories (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events have common underlying arterial pathology, risk factors, and preventive treatments, but they are rarely studied concurrently. In the Oxford Vascular Study, we determined the comparative epidemiology of different acute vascular syndromes, their current burdens, and the potential effect of the ageing population on future rates. METHODS: We prospectively assessed all individuals presenting with an acute vascular event of any type in any arterial territory irrespective of age in a population of 91 106 in Oxfordshire, UK, in 2002-05. FINDINGS: 2024 acute vascular events occurred in 1657 individuals: 918 (45%) cerebrovascular (618 stroke, 300 transient ischaemic attacks [TIA]); 856 (42%) coronary vascular (159 ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 316 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 218 unstable angina, 163 sudden cardiac death); 188 (9%) peripheral vascular (43 aortic, 53 embolic visceral or limb ischaemia, 92 critical limb ischaemia); and 62 unclassifiable deaths. Relative incidence of cerebrovascular events compared with coronary events was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06-1.33) overall; 1.40 (1.23-1.59) for non-fatal events; and 1.21 (1.04-1.41) if TIA and unstable angina were further excluded. Event and incidence rates rose steeply with age in all arterial territories, with 735 (80%) cerebrovascular, 623 (73%) coronary, and 147 (78%) peripheral vascular events in 12 886 (14%) individuals aged 65 years or older; and 503 (54%), 402 (47%), and 105 (56%), respectively, in the 5919 (6%) aged 75 years or older. Although case-fatality rates increased with age, 736 (47%) of 1561 non-fatal events occurred at age 75 years or older. INTERPRETATION: The high rates of acute vascular events outside the coronary arterial territory and the steep rise in event rates with age in all territories have implications for prevention strategies, clinical trial design, and the targeting of funds for service provision and research.

Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of stroke is predicted to rise because of the rapidly ageing population. However, over the past two decades, findings of randomised trials have identified several interventions that are effective in prevention of stroke. Reliable data on time-trends in stroke incidence, major risk factors, and use of preventive treatments in an ageing population are required to ascertain whether implementation of preventive strategies can offset the predicted rise in stroke incidence. We aimed to obtain these data. METHODS: We ascertained changes in incidence of transient ischaemic attack and stroke, risk factors, and premorbid use of preventive treatments from 1981-84 (Oxford Community Stroke Project; OCSP) to 2002-04 (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC). FINDINGS: Of 476 patients with transient ischaemic attacks or strokes in OXVASC, 262 strokes and 93 transient ischaemic attacks were incident events. Despite more complete case-ascertainment than in OCSP, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke fell by 29% (relative incidence 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.83, p=0.0002). Incidence declined by more than 50% for primary intracerebral haemorrhage (0.47, 0.27-0.83, p=0.01) but was unchanged for subarachnoid haemorrhage (0.83, 0.44-1.57, p=0.57). Thus, although 28% more incident strokes (366 vs 286) were expected in OXVASC due to demographic change alone (33% increase in those aged 75 or older), the observed number fell (262 vs 286). Major reductions were recorded in mortality rates for incident stroke (0.63, 0.44-0.90, p=0.02) and in incidence of disabling or fatal stroke (0.60, 0.50-0.73, p<0.0001), but no change was seen in case-fatality due to incident stroke (17.2% vs 17.8%; age and sex adjusted relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.57-1.28, p=0.45). Comparison of premorbid risk factors revealed substantial reductions in the proportion of smokers, mean total cholesterol, and mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and major increases in premorbid treatment with antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, and blood pressure lowering drugs (all p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION: The age-specific incidence of major stroke in Oxfordshire has fallen by 40% over the past 20 years in association with increased use of preventive treatments and major reductions in premorbid risk factors.

Direct assessment of completeness of ascertainment in a stroke incidence study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Validity of comparisons of stroke incidence between studies or time periods depends on the completeness of ascertainment. Ascertainment cannot be reliably assessed indirectly by statistical methods, such as capture-recapture. We report the first use of direct methods to determine the completeness of different ascertainment strategies in a population-based stroke incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study). METHODS: We assessed completeness of 2 different ascertainment strategies: the core methods common to most previous incidence studies and core plus supplementary methods used in some studies (including access to carotid and brain imaging referrals and assessment of patients referred as "transient ischemic attack" or "recurrent stroke"). We assessed completeness of ascertainment in 2 ways. First, we searched anonymized primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population (n=90,542). Second, we interviewed and followed-up a high-risk subset of our study population: all patients who had an acute coronary or peripheral vascular event or a related elective investigation or intervention. RESULTS: 126 strokes were ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods, of which only 108 were identified by the core methods alone. Only 2 additional incident strokes were identified by access to primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population. Assessment and follow-up of 1103 high-risk individuals (5.5% of our total study population aged older than 60 years) identified 16 incident strokes. However, all 16 had already been ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods. CONCLUSIONS: The core methods of ascertainment used in some stroke incidence studies lead to significant underascertainment. However, direct assessment of ascertainment suggests that the supplementary methods used in recent studies can lead to near-complete ascertainment.

A melange of meningiomata.

Eight case reports of elderly patients with meningiomata are presented. Their mode of presentation to a typical district general hospital in central Scotland and subsequent clinical management is described. The significance of these cases is discussed.

Population based study of early risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke: implications for public education and organisation of services.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the very early stroke risk after a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke and thereby inform the planning of effective stroke prevention services. DESIGN: Population based prospective cohort study of patients with TIA or stroke. SETTING: Nine general practices in Oxfordshire, England, from April 2002 to April 2003. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who had a TIA (n = 87) or minor stroke (n = 87) during the study period and who presented to medical attention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of recurrent stroke at seven days, one month, and three months after TIAs and minor strokes. RESULTS: The estimated risk of recurrent stroke was 8.0% (95% confidence interval 2.3% to 13.7%) at seven days, 11.5% (4.8% to 18.2%) at one month, and 17.3% (9.3% to 25.3%) at three months after a TIA. The risks at these three time periods after a minor stroke were 11.5% (4.8% to 11.2%), 15.0% (7.5% to 22.5%), and 18.5% (10.3% to 26.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The early risks of stroke after a TIA or minor stroke are much higher than commonly quoted. More research is needed to determine whether these risks can be reduced by more rapid instigation of preventive treatment.

Early risk of recurrence by subtype of ischemic stroke in population-based incidence studies.

OBJECTIVE: To study the early risk of recurrent stroke by etiologic subtype. METHODS: The authors studied risk of recurrent stroke by etiologic subtype (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment [TOAST] classification) in patients in two population-based studies: the Oxford Vascular Study and the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project. A meta-analysis was performed with data from the only two other published studies reporting equivalent data. RESULTS: The four studies included 1,709 strokes with 30 recurrences at 7 days, 72 at 30 days, and 113 at 3 months. Recurrent stroke risk varied between subtypes (p < 0.001). Compared with other subtypes, patients with stroke due to large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) had the highest odds of recurrence at 7 days (odds ratio [OR] = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.0), 30 days (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.7 to 4.9), and 3 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.9 to 4.5). Odds of recurrence at 30 days for other subtypes were cardioembolic (OR = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.6 to 1.7), undetermined (OR = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.6 to 1.6), and small-vessel stroke (OR = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.1 to 0.6). There was no significant heterogeneity between the studies. Although only 14% of strokes were associated with LAA, this subtype accounted for 37% of recurrences within 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of early recurrent stroke is highest in patients with LAA. This supports the need for urgent carotid imaging and prompt endarterectomy.