A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study of Digestive System Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Individuals With and Without Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: To study digestive system cancer risks in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in the biologic era. METHODS: We used population-level administrative and cancer registry data from Ontario, Canada (1994 - 2020) to compare people with IBD to matched controls (1:10 by sex and birth year) on trends in age-sex standardized cancer incidence and risk ratios of incident cancers and cancer-related deaths. RESULTS: Among 110,919 IBD and 1,109,190 controls, colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence (per 100,000 person-years) declined similarly in people with ulcerative colitis (average annual percentage change (AAPC) -1.81; 95% CI, -2.48, -1.156) and controls (AAPC -2.79; 95% CI, -3.44, -2.14), while small bowel cancer incidence rose faster in those with Crohn's disease (AAPC 9.68; 95% CI, 2.51, 17.3) than controls (AAPC 3.64; 95% CI, 1.52, 5.80). Extra-intestinal digestive cancer incidence rose faster in people with IBD (AAPC 3.27; 95% CI, 1.83, 4.73) than controls (AAPC -1.87; 95% CI, -2.33, -1.42), particularly for liver (IBD AAPC 8.48; 95% CI, 4.11, 13.1) and bile duct (IBD AAPC 7.22; 95 % CI, 3.74, 10.8) cancers. Beyond 2010, the incidences (and respective mortality rates) of colorectal (1.60; 95% CI, 1.46, 1.75), small bowel (4.10; 95% CI 3.37, 4.99), bile duct (2.33; 95% CI 1.96, 2.77) and pancreatic (1.19; 95% CI, 1.00, 1.40) cancers, were higher in people with IBD. DISCUSSION: Cancer incidence is declining for CRC and rising for other digestive cancers in people with IBD. Incidence and mortality remain higher in IBD than controls for colorectal, small bowel, bile duct and pancreatic cancers.

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. METHODS: Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. RESULTS: The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81). DISCUSSION: Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Trends and Projections in National United States Health Care Spending for Gastrointestinal Malignancies (1996-2030).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The management of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers is associated with high health care spending. We estimated trends in United States (US) health care spending for patients with GI cancers between 1996 and 2016 and developed projections to 2030. METHODS: We used economic data, adjusted for inflation, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations for the Disease Expenditure Project. Corresponding US age-adjusted prevalence of GI cancers was estimated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study. Prevalence-adjusted temporal trends in the US health care spending in patients with GI cancers, stratified by cancer site, age, and setting of care, were estimated using joinpoint regression, expressed as annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to project spending to 2030. RESULTS: In 2016, total spending for GI cancers was primarily attributable to colorectal ($10.50 billion; 95% CI, $9.35-$11.70 billion) and pancreatic cancer ($2.55 billion; 95% CI, $2.23-$2.82 billion), and primarily for inpatient care (64.5%). Despite increased total spending, more recent per-patient spending for pancreatic (APC 2008-2016, -1.4%; 95% CI, -2.2% to -0.7%), gallbladder/biliary tract (APC 2010-2016, -4.3%; 95% CI, -4.8% to -3.8%), and gastric cancer (APC 2011-2016, -4.4%; 95% CI, -5.8% to -2.9%) decreased. Increasing price and intensity of care provision was the largest driver of higher expenditures. By 2030, it is projected more than $21 billion annually will be spent on GI cancer management. CONCLUSIONS: Total spending for GI cancers in the US is substantial and projected to increase. Expenditures are primarily driven by inpatient care for colorectal cancer, although per-capita spending trends differ by GI cancer type.

Epidemiologic Burden and Projections for Eosinophilic Esophagitis-Associated Emergency Department Visits in the United States: 2009-2030.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with poorly controlled eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) may require unplanned emergency department (ED) visits for the management of dysphagia or food impactions. We evaluated the epidemiologic burden of EoE on ED utilization in the United States. METHODS: Data from the US Nationwide Emergency Department Sample were used to estimate weighted annual EoE-associated ED visits from 2009 to 2019. Temporal trends in population-adjusted rates of EoE visits were assessed using joinpoint regression. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to project EoE-associated ED visits to 2030. We also evaluated endoscopic utilization, requirement for hospitalization, and ED-related charges in patients with EoE presenting to the ED. RESULTS: A total of 11,125 unweighted (49,507 weighted) ED visits for EoE were included (69.0% male; mean age, 32.4 y). The annual volume of EoE-associated ED visits increased from 2934 (95% CI, 2437-3431) in 2009 to 8765 (95% CI, 7514-10,015) in 2019, and is projected to reach 15,445 (95% prediction interval, 14,672-16,218) by 2030. From 2009 to 2019, the number of EoE-associated ED visits increased by an average of 11.5% per year (95% CI, 10.3%-12.7%). The proportion of patients admitted to the hospital from the ED decreased from 25.6% in 2009 to 2011 to 14.0% in 2017 to 2019. Half of EoE patients presenting to the ED required an endoscopy, and nearly 40% required an esophageal foreign body removal. Total mean inflation-adjusted charges for an EoE-associated ED visit were $9025 US dollars in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of EoE-associated ED visits tripled between 2009 and 2019 and is projected to further double by 2030. This represents a substantial burden of unanticipated health care resource utilization and highlights a potential opportunity to optimize outpatient EoE care.

Global Incidence of Acute Pancreatitis Is Increasing Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with significant associated morbidity and mortality. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies to explore the changing temporal trends of acute pancreatitis incidence globally. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search to identify population-based studies reporting the annual incidence of acute pancreatitis. Abstracts were assessed independently to identify applicable articles for full-text review and data extraction. Joinpoint temporal trend analyses were performed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The AAPCs were pooled in a meta-analysis to capture the overall and regional trends in acute pancreatitis incidence over time. Temporal data were summarized in a static map and an interactive, web-based map. RESULTS: Forty-four studies reported the temporal incidence of acute pancreatitis (online interactive map: https://kaplan-acute-pancreatitis-ucalgary.hub.arcgis.com/). The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased from 1961 to 2016 (AAPC, 3.07%; 95% CI, 2.30% to 3.84%; n = 34). Increasing incidence was observed in North America (AAPC, 3.67%; 95% CI, 2.76% to 4.57%; n = 4) and Europe (AAPC, 2.77%; 95% CI, 1.91% to 3.63%; n = 23). The incidence of acute pancreatitis was stable in Asia (AAPC, -0.28%; 95% CI, -5.03% to 4.47%; n = 4). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the global incidence of acute pancreatitis over the last 56 years and demonstrates a steadily rising incidence over time in most countries of the Western world. More studies are needed to better define the changing incidence of acute pancreatitis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Global Hospitalization Trends for Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis in the 21st Century: A Systematic Review With Temporal Analyses.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The evolving epidemiologic patterns of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) throughout the world, in conjunction with advances in therapeutic treatments, may influence hospitalization rates of IBD. We performed a systematic review with temporal analysis of hospitalization rates for IBD across the world in the 21st century. METHODS: We systematically reviewed Medline and Embase for population-based studies reporting hospitalization rates for IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), or ulcerative colitis (UC) in the 21st century. Log-linear models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Random-effects meta-analysis pooled country-level AAPCs. Data were stratified by the epidemiologic stage of a region: compounding prevalence (stage 3) in North America, Western Europe, and Oceania vs acceleration of incidence (stage 2) in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America vs emergence (stage 1) in developing countries. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis of IBD were stable in countries in stage 3 (AAPC, -0.13%; 95% CI, -0.72 to 0.97), CD (AAPC, 0.20%; 95% CI, -1.78 to 2.17), and UC (AAPC, 0.02%; 95% CI, -0.91 to 0.94). In contrast, hospitalization rates for a primary diagnosis were increasing in countries in stage 2 for IBD (AAPC, 4.44%; 95% CI, 2.75 to 6.14), CD (AAPC, 8.34%; 95% CI, 4.38 to 12.29), and UC (AAPC, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.29 to 6.52). No population-based studies were available for developing regions in stage 1 (emergence). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization rates for IBD are stabilizing in countries in stage 3, whereas newly industrialized countries in stage 2 have rapidly increasing hospitalization rates, contributing to an increasing burden on global health care systems.

Adverse Events and Serological Responses After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Individuals With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We determined adverse events after 4 doses of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), associations between antibodies and injection site reactions (ISR), and risk of IBD flare. METHODS: Individuals with IBD were interviewed for adverse events to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Multivariable linear regression assessed the association between antibody titers and ISR. RESULTS: Severe adverse events occurred in 0.03%. ISR were significantly associated with antibody levels after the fourth dose (geometric mean ratio = 2.56; 95% confidence interval 1.18-5.57). No cases of IBD flare occurred. DISCUSSION: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are safe for those with IBD. ISR after the fourth dose may indicate increased antibodies.

Earlier Anti-TNF Initiation Leads to Long-term Lower Health Care Utilization in Crohn's Disease but Not in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The timing of initiating biologic therapy in persons with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) is an area of ongoing controversy. In particular, there is concern that delaying the initiation of biologic therapy may lead to more treatment-resistant disease, which can result in more complications and hospitalizations. METHODS: We used health administrative data from Manitoba, Canada to identify all persons with a new diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) between 2001 and 2018 who received tumor necrosis factor antagonists (anti-TNF) therapy and had at least 1 year of post anti-TNF initiation follow-up. We measured the rates of hospitalization, surgery, and outpatient visits, prior to and for up to 5 years following anti-TNF initiation. We compared the rates of these health care utilization outcomes between persons receiving anti-TNFs within 2 years following diagnosis and those receiving anti-TNFs more than 2 years following IBD diagnosis. We used inverse probability treatment weighting to adjust for baseline differences in risk between the 2 groups. RESULTS: Among 742 persons with CD, early anti-TNF initiators had fewer IBD-specific and overall hospitalizations over the 5 years following the start of therapy. Incidence of resective surgery was also lower in earlier anti-TNF initiators with CD if the first year following initiation was excluded from the analysis. In 318 cases of UC, there was no impact of the timing of anti-TNF therapy on the rates of hospitalization and surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier administration of anti-TNF therapy is associated with reduced downstream health care resource utilization in CD, though these impacts are not evident in UC.

The Global Incidence of Peptic Ulcer Disease Is Decreasing Since the Turn of the 21st Century: A Study of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

INTRODUCTION: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common cause of hospitalization worldwide. We assessed temporal trends in hospitalization for PUD in 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since the turn of the 21st century. METHODS: The OECD database contains data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. The incidence of PUD was forecasted to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The overall median hospitalization rate was 42.4 with an interquartile range of 29.7-60.6 per 100,000 person-years. On average, hospitalization rates (AAPC = -3.9%; 95% CI: -4.4, -3.3) and morality rates (AAPC = -4.7%; 95% CI: -5.6, -3.8) for PUD have decreased from 2000 to 2019 globally. The forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalizations in 2021 ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 countries in the OECD, 329,000 people are estimated to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021. DISCUSSION: PUD remains an important cause of hospitalization worldwide. Reassuringly, hospitalizations and mortality for PUD have consistently been falling in OECD countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum.

Hospitalization With Clostridioides difficile in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease: a Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: Several studies have demonstrated higher rates of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We conducted a population-based study comparing the risk of hospitalization with CDI in children with and without IBD. METHODS: Using health administrative data and validated algorithms, we identified all children (<16 years) diagnosed with IBD in 5 Canadian provinces, then age and sex matched to 5 children without IBD. Province-specific 5-year incidence rates of hospitalization with CDI were pooled and generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing (1) children with and without IBD and (2) children with Crohn disease and ulcerative colitis. Hazard ratios (HR) from Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, sex, rural/urban household, and income were pooled using fixed-effects models. RESULTS: The incidence rate of CDI identified during hospitalization was 49.06 [95% confidence interval (CI), 39.40-61.08] per 10,000 person-years (PY) in 3593 children with IBD compared to 0.39 (95% CI, 0.13-1.21) per 10,000 PY in 16,284 children without IBD (crude IRR, 133.4, 95% CI, 42.1-422.7; adjusted HR, 68.2, 95% CI, 24.4-190.4). CDI was identified less often in children with Crohn disease than ulcerative colitis (crude IRR, 0.51, 95% CI, 0.32-0.82; adjusted HR, 0.69, 95% CI, 0.46-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Children with IBD have a markedly higher incidence of CDI identified during a hospitalization relative to children without IBD. Consequently, symptomatic children with IBD who are hospitalized should be screened for CDI.

Trends in Corticosteroid Use During the Era of Biologic Therapy: A Population-Based Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Corticosteroids are effective for inducing clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but not for maintaining remission. Reducing corticosteroid use and dependence is an important treatment goal since their use is associated with adverse events. The extent to which the improvements in IBD therapy have led to less corticosteroid use in the modern era remains unclear. METHODS: We used the University of Manitoba Inflammatory Bowel Disease Epidemiologic Database to assess the cumulative annual dosing of corticosteroids on a per-patient basis for all persons with IBD in the province of Manitoba between 1997 and 2017. Joinpoint analysis was used to assess for trends in corticosteroid use and to look at variation in the trends over time. RESULTS: The mean annual exposure to corticosteroids decreased from 419 mg/yr (1997) to 169 mg/yr (2017) for Crohn's disease (CD) (annual decline: 3.8% per year, 95% confidence interval 3.1-4.6) and from 380 to 240 mg/yr in ulcerative colitis (UC) (annual decline: 2.5% per year, 95% confidence interval 2.1-2.8). In CD, there was an acceleration in the rate of decline after 2007 (pre-2007, 1.9% decline per year; after 2007, 5.7% per year); there was no corresponding acceleration in the rate of decline in UC. DISCUSSION: Corticosteroid use has decreased in both CD and UC over the past 2 decades, becoming more pronounced after 2007 in CD. Potential explanations include introduction and increasing penetrance of biologic therapy in CD and greater awareness of corticosteroid-related adverse events in IBD. Further work is required understand the drivers of persistent corticosteroid use in IBD and how this can be further reduced.

Increased Incidence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease After Hirschsprung Disease: A Population-based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency with which inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is diagnosed in persons with Hirschsprung disease in population-based datasets from 3 Canadian provinces. STUDY DESIGN: In study I, Ontario data were used to assess the incidence of IBD in a birth cohort of children with Hirschsprung disease relative to children without Hirschsprung disease. In study II, a case-control design was used in Alberta and Manitoba to determine the frequency of previously diagnosed Hirschsprung disease in persons with IBD, compared with the frequency of Hirschsprung disease in matched controls. Validated algorithms for Hirschsprung disease and IBD were applied to each provincial health registry. RESULTS: In study I, of the 716 children diagnosed with Hirschsprung disease in Ontario since 1991, 18 (2.5%) ultimately developed IBD (168.8 per 100 000 person-years), compared with 7109 of 3 377 394 children without Hirschsprung disease (0.2%, 14.2 per 100 000 person-years). The percentage of males with post-Hirschsprung disease IBD was 77.8%. The incidence rate ratio was 11.9 (95% CI, 7.5-18.8). In study II, the OR of having had Hirschsprung disease before a diagnosis of IBD compared with controls was 74.9 (95% CI, 17.1-328.7) in Alberta and 23.8 (95% CI, 4.6-123) in Manitoba. Crohn's disease was more common after Hirschsprung disease than ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: IBD can emerge in more than 2% of patients with Hirschsprung disease and, like Hirschsprung disease itself, is more common in males. IBD is much more common after a diagnosis of Hirschsprung disease than in the general population.

Association Between Celiac Disease and Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to perform a systematic review assessing the research investigating the association between celiac disease (CD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). METHODS: A literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed without limits placed on year or language. Observational studies reporting on the occurrence of CD among patients with ASD and/or the occurrence of ASD among patients with CD were included. Study design, characteristics, diagnostic criteria for ASD and CD, and the frequency of positive cases in the studied sample were recorded. Study quality was assessed using an adapted Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Due to substantial heterogeneity between studies, a meta-analysis was not performed. RESULTS: Of the 298 unique citations identified within our search strategy, 17 articles evaluating the association between CD and ASD were included. Of those articles, 13 observed samples of patients with ASD, and 6 observed samples of patients with CD. Overall, most studies had small sample sizes and reported no evidence for an association between the 2 conditions. However, a limited number of population-based studies of higher quality suggested a potential association between CD and ASD. CONCLUSIONS: Most studies assessing an association between CD and ASD are at risk for systematic and/or random error. A potential link has, however, been shown in a handful of high-quality studies, and, therefore, this comorbidity cannot be ruled out. Future studies should recruit larger sample sizes, include precise definitions of CD and ASD, and exclude patients with ASD on a gluten-free diet.

Past and Future Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Based on Modeling of Population-Based Data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.

Longitudinal Trends in the Direct Costs and Health Care Utilization Ascribable to Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Biologic Era: Results From a Canadian Population-Based Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing. The total direct costs of IBD have not been assessed on a population-wide level in the era of biologic therapy. DESIGN: We identified all persons with IBD in Manitoba between 2005 and 2015, with each matched to 10 controls on age, sex, and area of residence. We enumerated all hospitalizations, outpatient visits and prescription medications including biologics, and their associated direct costs. Total and per capita annual IBD-attributable costs and health care utilization (HCU) were determined by taking the difference between the costs/HCU accrued by an IBD case and their controls. Generalized linear modeling was used to evaluate trends in direct costs and Poisson regression for trends in HCU. RESULTS: The number of people with IBD in Manitoba increased from 6,323 to 7,603 between 2005 and 2015. The total per capita annual costs attributable to IBD rose from $3,354 in 2005 to $7,801 in 2015, primarily driven by an increase in per capita annual anti-tumor necrosis factor costs, which rose from $181 in 2005 to $5,270 in 2015. There was a significant decline in inpatient costs for CD ($99 ± 25/yr. P < 0.0001), but not for ulcerative colitis ($8 increase ±$18/yr, P = 0.63). DISCUSSION: The direct health care costs attributable to IBD have more than doubled over the 10 years between 2005 and 2015, driven mostly by increasing expenditures on biological medications. IBD-attributable hospitalization costs have declined modestly over time for persons with CD, although no change was seen for patients with ulcerative colitis.

Incidence of Celiac Disease Is Increasing Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis that defines the worldwide incidence of celiac disease (CD) and examines temporal trends. METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for population-based studies reporting the incidence of CD in the overall population, children, or adults. No limits were placed on year or language of publication. Studies solely examining at-risk populations (e.g., patients with type 1 diabetes) were excluded. Random-effects models were performed to meta-analyze sex- and age-specific incidence in the 21st century. Temporal trend analyses assessed the average annual percent change in CD incidence over time. RESULTS: Of 11,189 citations, 86 eligible studies were identified for inclusion, of which 50 were deemed suitable for analyses. In the 21st century, the pooled female incidence of CD was 17.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.7, 21.1) (I = 99.5%) per 100,000 person-years, compared with 7.8 (95% CI: 6.3, 9.2) (I = 98.6%) in males. Child-specific incidence was 21.3 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 15.9, 26.7) (I = 99.7%) compared with 12.9 (95% CI: 7.6, 18.2) (I = 99.9%) in adults. Pooling average annual percent changes showed the incidence of CD to be increasing by 7.5% (95% CI: 5.8, 9.3) (I = 79.6%) per year over the past several decades. DISCUSSION: Incidence of CD is highest in females and children. Overall, the incidence has been significantly rising in the latter half of the 20th century and into the 21st century throughout the Western world. Population-based studies in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are needed to provide a comprehensive picture of the global incidence of CD.

Upfront Combination Therapy, Compared With Monotherapy, for Patients Not Previously Treated With a Biologic Agent Associates With Reduced Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease-related Complications in a Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although guidelines recommend inclusion of immune modulators in anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) initiation therapy for Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC), there are limited data on the incremental effectiveness of this treatment strategy from the real world. METHODS: We collected data from the Manitoba Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Epidemiology database on persons with CD (n=852) or UC (n=303), from 2001 through 2016, who began treatment with a TNF antagonist. New and/or continuing users of immunomodulators at the time anti-TNF therapy began were considered recipients of combination therapy. The main outcome was treatment ineffectiveness (IBD-related hospitalization, intestinal resection, corticosteroid use, or change of anti-TNF agent) during TNF antagonist-based therapy or within 90 days after the anti-TNF agent was discontinued. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between concomitant use of immunomodulators and treatment ineffectiveness. RESULTS: In patients with CD, combination therapy was associated with a significant decrease in likelihood of treatment ineffectiveness (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for ineffectiveness, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.79). However, this association was not significant in patients with UC (aHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.56-1.20). In patients with CD, combination therapy was also associated with increased time to first IBD-related hospitalization (aHR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36-0.80) and switching anti-TNF agents (aHR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.97), but not associated with IBD-related surgery (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.12) or new or recurrent use of corticosteroids (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.55-1.04). CONCLUSION: In an analysis of a database of real-world patients with IBD, we associated initiation therapy with a combination immune modulators and anti-TNF agents with a decreased likelihood of treatment ineffectiveness for patients with CD but not UC.