Temporal and spatial dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana.

Plasmodium parasites, the causal agents of malaria, are eukaryotic organisms that obligately undergo sexual recombination within mosquitoes. In low transmission settings, parasites recombine with themselves, and the clonal lineage is propagated rather than broken up by outcrossing. We investigated whether stochastic/neutral factors drive the persistence and abundance of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana, a country with relatively low malaria transmission, but the only setting in the Americas in which an important artemisinin resistance mutation (pfk13 C580Y) has been observed. We performed whole genome sequencing on 1,727 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from infected patients across a five-year period (2016-2021). We characterized the relatedness between each pair of monoclonal infections (n = 1,409) through estimation of identity-by-descent (IBD) and also typed each sample for known or candidate drug resistance mutations. A total of 160 multi-isolate clones (mean IBD ≥ 0.90) were circulating in Guyana during the study period, comprising 13 highly related clusters (mean IBD ≥ 0.40). In the five-year study period, we observed a decrease in frequency of a mutation associated with artemisinin partner drug (piperaquine) resistance (pfcrt C350R) and limited co-occurence of pfcrt C350R with duplications of plasmepsin 2/3, an epistatic interaction associated with piperaquine resistance. We additionally observed 61 nonsynonymous substitutions that increased markedly in frequency over the study period as well as a novel pfk13 mutation (G718S). However, P. falciparum clonal dynamics in Guyana appear to be largely driven by stochastic factors, in contrast to other geographic regions, given that clones carrying drug resistance polymorphisms do not demonstrate enhanced persistence or higher abundance than clones carrying polymorphisms of comparable frequency that are unrelated to resistance. The use of multiple artemisinin combination therapies in Guyana may have contributed to the disappearance of the pfk13 C580Y mutation.

The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis.

The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance.

Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.

Malaria care-seeking and treatment ideation among gold miners in Guyana.

BACKGROUND: Although miners are a priority population in malaria elimination in Guyana, scant literature exists on the drivers of malaria-related behaviour. This study explores the relationship between gold miners' malaria-related ideation and the adoption of malaria care-seeking and treatment behaviours including prompt care-seeking, malaria testing, and self-medication. METHODS: Data are from a cross-sectional quantitative survey of 1685 adult miners between the ages of 18-59 years who live in mining camps in Regions 1, 7, and 8. The analysis focused on miners who reported an episode of fever in the past year (n = 745). Malaria care-seeking and treatment ideation was defined as a composite additive score consisting of the following variables: general malaria knowledge, perceived severity, perceived susceptibility, beliefs, perceived self-efficacy, perceived norms, interpersonal communication, and perceived response efficacy. Multivariable logistic regressions explored the relationship between ideation on care-seeking/treatment behaviours, controlling for confounding variables. RESULTS: Most miners with a recent episode of fever had perceived risk (92%), self-efficacy (67%), susceptibility (53%) and high malaria knowledge (53%). Overall, miners' care-seeking/treatment ideation score ranged from 0 to 8 with a mean of 4.1. Ideation scores were associated with higher odds of care-seeking for fever (aOR: 1.19; 95% CI 1.04-1.36), getting tested for malaria (aOR: 1.22; 95% CI 1.07-1.38) and lower odds of self-medication (aOR: 0.87; 95% CI 0.77-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: A national community case management initiative is using study findings as part of its scale-up, using volunteers to make testing and treatment services more accessible to miners. This is complemented by a multi-channel mass media campaign to improve miners' ideation. Communication messages focus on increasing miners' knowledge of malaria transmission and symptoms, encourage positive beliefs about malaria testing and volunteer testers, promote evidence about the effectiveness of testing, and reminders of how quick and easy it is to get a malaria test with the community case management initiative. Study findings also have implications for efforts to eliminate malaria across the Guiana Shield.

Kelch13 mutations in Plasmodium falciparum and risk of spreading in Amazon basin countries.

BACKGROUND: The first potential focus for artemisinin resistance in South America was recently confirmed with the presence of the C580Y mutation in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 gene (pfk13) in Guyana. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to strengthen pfk13 monitoring in the Amazon basin countries, to compile the available data and to evaluate the risk of spreading of mutations. METHODS: Sanger sequencing was done on 862 samples collected between 1998 and 2019, and a global map of pfk13 genotypes available for this region was constructed. Then, the risk of spreading of mutations based on P. falciparum case importation between 2015 and 2018 within countries of the Amazon basin was evaluated. RESULTS: No additional pfk13 C580Y foci were identified. Few mutations (0.5%, 95% CI = 0.3%-0.8%) in the propeller domain were observed in the general parasite population of this region despite a high proportion of K189T mutations (49.1%, 95% CI = 46.2%-52.0%) in the non-propeller domain. Case information revealed two patterns of intense human migration: Venezuela, Guyana and the Roraima State in Brazil; and French Guiana, Suriname and the Amapá State in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: There are few pfk13 mutant foci, but a high risk of dispersion in the Amazon basin, mainly from the Guiana Shield, proportionate to mining activities. Therefore, access to prompt diagnosis and treatment, and continuous molecular monitoring is essential in these geographical areas.

Human-centered design process and solutions to promote malaria testing and treatment seeking behavior in Guyana hinterlands.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a persistent public health challenge among miners and other hard-to-reach populations in Guyana's hinterland, specifically in Regions 1, 7, 8, and 9. Despite an overall decrease in malaria prevalence throughout Guyana, it remains common among mining populations whose work conditions both contribute toward malaria transmission and make it difficult to seek timely, Ministry of Health (MoH) approved malaria testing and treatment services. In an effort to develop innovative approaches to address this public health challenge, an interdisciplinary team of public health professionals, designers, and mining organizations collaborated using a human-centered design (HCD) process facilitated by the USAID-funded Breakthrough ACTION Guyana project in partnership with the MoH. METHODS: This paper describes two phases: [1] Define and [2] Design & Test. In the Define phase, following a literature review, we conducted 108 qualitative interviews with miners, camp managers, trained malaria testers, health workers, and other key stakeholders to understand experiences and challenges when seeking malaria testing and treatment services. These interviews were synthesized into 11 insights on issues such as risk perception, malaria knowledge, preventive behaviors, traditional and self-treatment, adherence to the correct treatment, testing, and coordination and communication gaps. From these insights, during the Design & Test phase, we developed 33 "How might we…?" questions which led to 792 ideas, of which eight emergent concepts were prototyped and refined in the field with 145 miners, camp managers, and stakeholders. RESULTS: The five final prototypes included: "Little Mosquito, Big Problem" social behavior change campaign; rapid counseling cards; branded malaria testing and treatment services; innovations in treatment adherence; and a participants, content, and logistics approach. CONCLUSION: When applying HCD to public health issues, there are both opportunities and challenges to reconcile gaps that may exist between the two disciplines. However, HCD provides additional tools and mindsets to generatively work with migrant and mobile mining communities to encourage malaria testing and treatment services.

Contrasting genomic epidemiology between sympatric Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax populations.

The malaria parasites Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax differ in key biological processes and associated clinical effects, but consequences on population-level transmission dynamics are difficult to predict. This co-endemic malaria study from Guyana details important epidemiological contrasts between the species by coupling population genomics (1396 spatiotemporally matched parasite genomes, primarily from 2020-21) with sociodemographic analysis (nationwide patient census from 2019). We describe how P. falciparum forms large, interrelated subpopulations that sporadically expand but generally exhibit restrained dispersal, whereby spatial distance and patient travel statistics predict parasite identity-by-descent (IBD). Case bias towards working-age adults is also strongly pronounced. P. vivax exhibits 46% higher average nucleotide diversity (π) and 6.5x lower average IBD. It occupies a wider geographic range, without evidence for outbreak-like expansions, only microgeographic patterns of isolation-by-distance, and weaker case bias towards adults. Possible latency-relapse effects also manifest in various analyses. For example, 11.0% of patients diagnosed with P. vivax in Greater Georgetown report no recent travel to endemic zones, and P. vivax clones recur in 11 of 46 patients incidentally sampled twice during the study. Polyclonality rate is also 2.1x higher than in P. falciparum, does not trend positively with estimated incidence, and correlates uniquely to selected demographics. We discuss possible underlying mechanisms and implications for malaria control.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana.

Plasmodium parasites, the causal agents of malaria, are eukaryotic organisms that obligately undergo sexual recombination within mosquitoes. However, in low transmission settings where most mosquitoes become infected with only a single parasite clone, parasites recombine with themselves, and the clonal lineage is propagated rather than broken up by outcrossing. We investigated whether stochastic/neutral factors drive the persistence and abundance of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana, a country with relatively low malaria transmission, but the only setting in the Americas in which an important artemisinin resistance mutation (pfk13 C580Y) has been observed. To investigate whether this clonality was potentially associated with the persistence and spatial spread of the mutation, we performed whole genome sequencing on 1,727 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from infected patients across a five-year period (2016-2021). We characterized the relatedness between each pair of monoclonal infections (n=1,409) through estimation of identity by descent (IBD) and also typed each sample for known or candidate drug resistance mutations. A total of 160 clones (mean IBD ≥ 0.90) were circulating in Guyana during the study period, comprising 13 highly related clusters (mean IBD ≥ 0.40). In the five-year study period, we observed a decrease in frequency of a mutation associated with artemisinin partner drug (piperaquine) resistance (pfcrt C350R) and limited co-occurence of pfcrt C350R with duplications of plasmepsin 2/3, an epistatic interaction associated with piperaquine resistance. We additionally report polymorphisms exhibiting evidence of selection for drug resistance or other phenotypes and reported a novel pfk13 mutation (G718S) as well as 61 nonsynonymous substitutions that increased markedly in frequency. However, P. falciparum clonal dynamics in Guyana appear to be largely driven by stochastic factors, in contrast to other geographic regions. The use of multiple artemisinin combination therapies in Guyana may have contributed to the disappearance of the pfk13 C580Y mutation.

Factors associated with never treatment and acceptability of mass drug administration for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Guyana, 2021.

Guyana remains one of four countries in the Americas endemic for lymphatic filariasis (LF). Elimination of LF requires repeated annual mass drug administration (MDA) with sufficient levels of coverage for success. This study assesses the acceptability and never treatment of LF MDA using data from a routine assessment survey in 2021. A subset of individuals, over 20 years of age (n = 2498), were selected to receive an expanded questionnaire to examine factors associated with acceptability and never treatment. Assessed factors include respondent demographics, knowledge, risk perceptions of LF, and opinions on the MDA programme. The majority (73%) of those with scores above the acceptability threshold (score ≥22.5) reported participating in MDA two or more times. Factors strongly and positively associated with scoring above the acceptability threshold include beliefs in importance of participation in MDA for their community (aOR = 2.8, 95%CI (1.1-7.2)), perception of importance of LF treatment (6.9 (3.2-14.7)), receiving treatment in 2021 (2.9 (1.5-5.4)), and the number of self-reported times taking treatment for LF (2.2 (1.1-4.4)). Ten percent of respondents participated in the MDA for the first time in 2021, while 15% reported never treatment during any round of LF MDA. Three factors were statistically associated with participation in MDA across the two levels of the models (level 1: took LF treatment once versus never, and level 2: took LF treatment twice versus never) included: 1) scoring above the acceptability threshold (aOR = 6.2, 95%CI(3.8-10.0)), 2) self-reported importance of participation in MDA for their community (7.1 (2.9-17.8)), and 3) personal beliefs that they should take LF treatment even if they are not sick (2.6 (1.7-3.9)). As Guyana moves closer to LF elimination, these results provide further insight and understanding into programmatic results and could inform further action following MDA activities-particularly if an approach is needed to address never treatment during MDA.

Impact of piperaquine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum on malaria treatment effectiveness in The Guianas: a descriptive epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum is an apicomplexan parasite responsible for lethal cases of malaria. According to WHO recommendations, P falciparum cases are treated with artemisinin-based combination therapy including dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. However, the emergence of resistant parasites against dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was reported in southeast Asia in 2008 and, a few years later, suspected in South America. METHODS: To characterise resistance emergence, a treatment efficacy study was performed on the reported patients infected with P falciparum and treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in French Guiana (n=6, 2016-18). Contemporary isolates collected in French Guiana were genotyped for P falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (pfCRT; n=845) and pfpm2 and pfpm3 copy number (n=231), phenotyped using the in vitro piperaquine survival assay (n=86), and analysed through genomic studies (n=50). Additional samples from five Amazonian countries and one outside the region were genotyped (n=1440). FINDINGS: In field isolates, 40 (47%) of 86 (95% CI 35·9-57·1) were resistant to piperaquine in vitro; these phenotypes were more associated with pfCRTC350R (ie, Cys350Arg) and pfpm2 and pfpm3 amplifications (Dunn test, p<0·001). Those markers were also associated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine treatment failure (n=3 [50%] of 6). A high prevalence of piperaquine resistance markers was observed in Suriname in 19 (83%) of 35 isolates and in Guyana in 579 (73%) of 791 isolates. The pfCRTC350R mutation emerged before pfpm2 and pfpm3 amplification in a temporal sequence different from southeast Asia, and in the absence of artemisinin partial resistance, suggesting a geographically distinctive epistatic relationship between these genetic markers. INTERPRETATION: The high prevalence of piperaquine resistance markers in parasite populations of the Guianas, and the risk of associated therapeutic failures calls for caution on dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine use in the region. Furthermore, greater attention should be given to potential differences in genotype to phenotype mapping across genetically distinct parasite populations from different continents. FUNDING: Pan American Health Organization and WHO, French Ministry for Research, European Commission, Santé publique France, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, and National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Cooperation for malaria control and elimination in the Guiana Shield.

The Guiana Shield, a small region of South America, is currently one of the main hotspots of malaria transmission on the continent. This Amazonian area is characterised by remarkable socioeconomic, cultural, health, and political heterogeneity and a high degree of regional and cross-border population mobility, which has contributed to the increase of malaria in the region in the past few years. In this context, regional cooperation to control malaria represents both a challenge and an indispensable initiative. This Viewpoint advocates for the creation of a regional cooperative mechanism for the elimination of malaria in the Guiana Shield. This strategy would help address operational and political obstacles to successful technical cooperation in the region and could contribute to reversing the regional upsurge in malaria incidence through creating a functional international control and elimination partnership.

The contribution of risk perception and social norms to reported preventive behaviour against selected vector-borne diseases in Guyana.

Preventing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) mainly relies on effective vector control tools and strategies, which in turn depend on population acceptance and adherence. Inspired by the abundant recent literature on SARS-COV-2, we investigate the relationship between risk perception and preventive behaviour for selected VBDs and the extent to which risk perception is determined by social norms. We use cross-sectional data collected from 497 individuals in four regions of Guyana in 2017. We use a conditional mixed process estimator with multilevel coefficients, estimated through a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework, applying a simultaneous equation structure. We find robust results on malaria: risk perception was significantly influenced by the risk perception of the reference group across different definitions of the reference group, hinting at the existence of social norms. Risk perception significantly increased the likelihood of passive behaviour by 4.48%. Less clear-cut results were found for dengue. This study applies quantitative social science methods to public health issues in the context of VBDs. Our findings point to the relevance of tailoring communications on health risks for VBDs to groups defined at the intersection of socio-economic and demographic characteristics. Such tailored strategies are expected to align risk perception among reference groups and boost preventive behaviour.

Spatial patterns and climate drivers of malaria in three border areas of Brazil, Venezuela and Guyana, 2016-2018.

In 2020, 77% of malaria cases in the Americas were concentrated in Venezuela, Brazil, and Colombia. These countries are characterized by a heterogeneous malaria landscape and malaria hotspots. Furthermore, the political unrest in Venezuela has led to significant cross-border population movement. Hence, the aim of this study was to describe spatial patterns and identify significant climatic drivers of malaria transmission along the Venezuela-Brazil-Guyana border, focusing on Bolivar state, Venezuela and Roraima state, Brazil. Malaria case data, stratified by species from 2016 to 2018, were obtained from the Brazilian Malaria Epidemiology Surveillance Information System, the Guyana Vector Borne Diseases Program, the Venezuelan Ministry of Health, and civil society organizations. Spatial autocorrelation in malaria incidence was explored using Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics. A Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive prior structure and posterior parameters were estimated using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. There were 685,498 malaria cases during the study period. Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species (71.7%, 490,861). Malaria hotspots were located in eight municipalities along the Venezuela and Guyana international borders with Brazil. Plasmodium falciparum increased by 2.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%, 2.8%) for one meter increase in altitude, decreased by 1.6% (95% CrI 1.5%, 2.3%) and 0.9% (95% CrI 0.7%, 2.4%) per 1 cm increase in 6-month lagged precipitation and each 1 °C increase of minimum temperature without lag. Each 1 °C increase of 1-month lagged maximum temperature increased P. falciparum by 0.6% (95% CrI 0.4%, 1.9%). P. vivax cases increased by 1.5% (95% CrI 1.3%, 1.6%) for one meter increase in altitude and decreased by  1.1% (95% CrI 1.0%, 1.2%) and 7.3% (95% CrI 6.7%, 9.7%) for each 1 cm increase of precipitation lagged at 6-months and 1 °C increase in minimum temperature lagged at 6-months. Each 1°C increase of two-month lagged maximum temperature increased P. vivax by 1.5% (95% CrI 0.6%, 7.1%). There was no significant residual spatial clustering after accounting for climatic covariates. Malaria hotspots were located along the Venezuela and Guyana international border with Roraima state, Brazil. In addition to population movement, climatic variables were important drivers of malaria transmission in these areas.

Design and implementation of multiplexed amplicon sequencing panels to serve genomic epidemiology of infectious disease: A malaria case study.

Multiplexed PCR amplicon sequencing (AmpSeq) is an increasingly popular application for cost-effective monitoring of threatened species and managed wildlife populations, and shows strong potential for the genomic epidemiology of infectious disease. AmpSeq data from infectious microbes can inform disease control in multiple ways, such as by measuring drug resistance marker prevalence, distinguishing imported from local cases, and determining the effectiveness of therapeutics. We describe the design and comparative evaluation of two new AmpSeq assays for Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites: a four-locus panel ("4CAST") composed of highly diverse antigens, and a 129-locus panel ("AMPLseq") composed of drug resistance markers, highly diverse loci for inferring relatedness, and a locus to detect Plasmodium vivax co-infection. We explore the performance of each panel in various public health use cases with in silico simulations as well as empirical experiments. The 4CAST panel appears highly suitable for evaluating the number of distinct parasite strains within samples (complexity of infection), showing strong performance across a wide range of parasitaemia levels without a DNA pre-amplification step. For relatedness inference, the larger AMPLseq panel performs similarly to two existing panels of comparable size, despite differences in the data and approach used for designing each panel. Finally, we describe an R package (paneljudge) that facilitates the design and comparative evaluation of genetic panels for relatedness estimation, and we provide general guidance on the design and implementation of AmpSeq panels for the genomic epidemiology of infectious disease.

The association between gold mining and malaria in Guyana: a statistical inference and time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria. METHODS: We used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable. FINDINGS: The proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84-0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73-0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices. FUNDING: Ramón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

Assessing factors influencing communities' acceptability of mass drug administration for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Guyana.

BACKGROUND: Guyana is one of four countries in the Latin American Region where lymphatic filariasis (LF) remains endemic. In preparation for the introduction of a new triple drug therapy regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA)) in 2019, an acceptability study was embedded within sentinel site mapping in four regions to assess mass drug administration (MDA) coverage and compliance, acceptability, and perceptions about treatment and disease. The results from this survey would inform the rollout of IDA in Guyana in 2019. METHODS: Data collection for the study occurred in August 2019, using a validated questionnaire administered by trained enumerators. Across all regions, a total of 1,248 participants were sampled by the Filarial Mapping team. Four-hundred and fifty-one participants aged over 18 years were randomly selected for participation in an expanded acceptability questionnaire. All data were captured in Secure Data Kit (SDK). RESULTS: Acceptability was measured using a mean acceptability score. Unadjusted mean scores ranged from 24.6 to 29.3, with 22.5 as the threshold of acceptability. Regional variation occurred across many indicators of interest: self-rated understanding about LF, mechanisms of LF transmission, LF drug safety and history of treatment during MDA. Region IV (Georgetown) recorded higher knowledge about LF, but lower compliance and acceptability. Number of pills was not perceived as a concern. CONCLUSION: Acceptability of MDA was good across all four regions under study. Results from this study set a baseline level for key indicators and acceptability, from which the acceptability of IDA can be measured. Regional variations across indicators suggest that localized approaches should be considered for social mobilization and MDA delivery to capture these contextual differences.

Understanding the role of disease knowledge and risk perception in shaping preventive behavior for selected vector-borne diseases in Guyana.

BACKGROUND: Individual behavior, particularly choices about prevention, plays a key role in infection transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Since the actual risk of infection is often uncertain, individual behavior is influenced by the perceived risk. A low risk perception is likely to diminish the use of preventive measures (behavior). If risk perception is a good indicator of the actual risk, then it has important implications in a context of disease elimination. However, more research is needed to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission. The objective of this study is to explore whether preventive behavior is responsive to risk perception, taking into account the links with disease knowledge and controlling for individuals' socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. More specifically, the study focuses on malaria, dengue fever, Zika and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), using primary data collected in Guyana-a key country for the control and/or elimination of VBDs, given its geographic location. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The data were collected between August and December 2017 in four regions of the country. Questions on disease knowledge, risk perception and self-reported use of preventive measures were asked to each participant for the four diseases. A structural equation model was estimated. It focused on data collected from private households only in order to control for individuals' socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, which led to a sample size of 497 participants. The findings showed evidence of a bidirectional association between risk perception and behavior. A one-unit increase in risk perception translated into a 0.53 unit increase in self-reported preventive behavior for all diseases, while a one-unit increase in self-reported preventive behavior (i.e. the use of an additional measure) led to a 0.46 unit decrease in risk perception for all diseases (except CL). This study also showed that higher education significantly improves knowledge and that better knowledge increases the take up of preventive measures for malaria and dengue, without affecting risk perception. CONCLUSIONS: In trying to reach elimination, it appears crucial to promote awareness of the risks and facilitate access to preventive measures, so that lower risk perception does not translate into lower preventive behavior.

Malaria prevention and care seeking among gold miners in Guyana.

Despite being a priority population in malaria elimination, there is scant literature on malaria-related behavior among gold miners. This study explores the prevalence and factors influencing malaria prevention, care seeking and treatment behaviors in Guyana gold mining camps. A cross sectional survey was conducted among adult gold miners living in mining camps in the hinterland Regions 1 (Barima-Waini), 7 (Cuyuni-Mazaruni), and 8 (Potaro-Siparuni). Multivariable logistic regressions explored factors associated with miners' self-report of mosquito net use, prompt care-seeking; self-medication; and testing for malaria. A third of miners used a mosquito net the night preceding the survey and net use was higher among those who believed that net use was the norm in their camp (aOR: 3.11; 95% CI:1.65, 5.88). Less than half (45%) of miners had a fever in the past 12 months, among whom 36% sought care promptly, 48% tested positive for malaria while 54% self-medicated before seeking care. Prompt care-seeking was higher among miners with high malaria knowledge (aOR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.05). Similarly, testing rates increased with secondary education (aOR: 1.71; 95% CI: (1.16, 2.51), high malaria knowledge (aOR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.05), positive beliefs regarding malaria transmission, threat, self-diagnosis, testing and treatment, and, trust in government services (aOR: 1.59; 95% CI (1.12, 2.27) and experience of a prior malaria episode (aOR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.71, 4.00). Self-medication was lower among male miners (aOR: 0. 52; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.86). Malaria prevention and care seeking behaviors among miners are somewhat low and influenced by mosquito net usage, perceived norms, malaria knowledge and prior episode of confirmed malaria. Study findings have implications for malaria interventions in the hinterland regions of Guyana such as the mass and continuous distribution of insecticide treated nets as well as community case management initiatives using trained malaria testing and treatment volunteers to curb malaria transmission among remote gold mining populations. These include efforts to identify and address gaps in distributing mosquito nets to miners and address miners' barriers to prompt care seeking, malaria testing and treatment adherence. Targeted social and behavior change messaging is needed on net acquisition, use and care, prompt care-seeking, malaria testing and treatment adherence. Additional efforts to ensure the overall sustainability of the community case management initiative include increased publicity of the community case management initiative among miners, use of incentives to promote retention rates among the community case management volunteer testers and public private partnerships between the Guyana Ministry of Health and relevant mining organizations.

Local emergence in Amazonia of Plasmodium falciparum k13 C580Y mutants associated with in vitro artemisinin resistance.

Antimalarial drug resistance has historically arisen through convergent de novo mutations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in Southeast Asia and South America. For the past decade in Southeast Asia, artemisinins, the core component of first-line antimalarial therapies, have experienced delayed parasite clearance associated with several pfk13 mutations, primarily C580Y. We report that mutant pfk13 has emerged independently in Guyana, with genome analysis indicating an evolutionary origin distinct from Southeast Asia. Pfk13 C580Y parasites were observed in 1.6% (14/854) of samples collected in Guyana in 2016-2017. Introducing pfk13 C580Y or R539T mutations by gene editing into local parasites conferred high levels of in vitro artemisinin resistance. In vitro growth competition assays revealed a fitness cost associated with these pfk13 variants, potentially explaining why these resistance alleles have not increased in frequency more quickly in South America. These data place local malaria control efforts at risk in the Guiana Shield.

All recommended treatments against malaria include a drug called artemisinin or some of its derivatives. However, there are concerns that Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite that causes most cases of malaria, will eventually develop widespread resistance to the drug. A strain of P. falciparum partially resistant to artemisinin was seen in Cambodia in 2008, and it has since spread across Southeast Asia. The resistance appears to be frequently linked to a mutation known as pfk13 C580Y. Southeast Asia and Amazonia are considered to be hotspots for antimalarial drug resistance, and the pfk13 C580Y mutation was detected in the South American country of Guyana in 2010. To examine whether the mutation was still circulating in this part of the world, Mathieu et al. collected and analyzed 854 samples across Guyana between 2016 and 2017. Overall, 1.6% of the samples had the pfk13 C580Y mutation, but this number was as high as 8.8% in one region. Further analyses revealed that the mutation in Guyana had not spread from Southeast Asia, but that it had occurred in Amazonia independently. To better understand the impact of the pfk13 C580Y mutation, Mathieu et al. introduced this genetic change into non-resistant parasites from a country neighbouring Guyana. As expected, the mutation made P. falciparum highly resistant to artemisinin, but it also slowed the growth rate of the parasite. This disadvantage may explain why the mutation has not spread more rapidly through Guyana in recent years. Artemisinin and its derivatives are always associated with other antimalarial drugs to slow the development of resistance; there are concerns that reduced susceptibility to artemisinin leads to the parasites becoming resistant to the partner drugs. Further research is needed to evaluate how the pfk13 C580Y mutation affects the parasite's response to the typical combination of drugs that are given to patients.