Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

A Qualitative Assessment of Factors That Children, Parents, and Clinicians Prioritize in the Setting of Elective Anesthesia and Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the postoperative recovery of pediatric patients is challenging as there is no validated comprehensive patient-centered recovery assessment tool for this population. A qualitative investigative approach with in-depth stakeholder interviews can provide insight into the recovery process and inform the development of a comprehensive patient-centered postoperative assessment tool for children. METHODS: We conducted open-ended, semistructured interviews with children 6-12 years old undergoing elective surgery (n = 35), their parents (n = 37), and clinicians (n = 23) who commonly care for this population (nurses, anesthesiologists, and surgeons). A codebook was developed and analyzed using NVivo 12 Plus. The codebook was iteratively developed using a qualitative content analysis approach with modifications made throughout to refine codes. We report the results of this thematic analysis of patient, parent, and clinician transcripts. RESULTS: Postoperative recovery priorities/concerns overlapped and also diverged across the 3 groups. Topics prioritized by children included mobility and self-care, as well as access to a strong social support network following surgery. The majority of children reported feeling anxious about the surgery and separating from their parents, as well as sadness about their inability to participate in activities while recovering. Although children highly valued familial support during recovery, there was variable awareness of the impact of surgery on family members and support network. In contrast, parents focused on the importance of clear and open communication among themselves and the health care team and being equipped with appropriate knowledge and resources on discharge. The immediate repercussions of the child's surgery, such as pain, confusion, and nausea, appeared to be a primary focus of both parents and clinicians when describing recovery. Clinicians had a comprehensive awareness of the possible psychological impacts of surgery in children, while parents reported varying degrees of awareness or concern regarding longer-term or more latent impacts of surgery and anesthesia (eg, anxiety and depression). Prior experience with pediatric surgery emerged as a distinguishing characteristic for parents and clinicians as parents without prior experience expressed less understanding of or comfort with managing a child's recovery following surgery. CONCLUSIONS: A patient-centered qualitative investigative approach yielded insights regarding the importance of various aspects of recovery in pediatric patients, their parents, and members of the health care team. Specifically, this investigation highlighted the importance of clear communication providing anticipatory guidance for families presenting for elective surgery in an effort to optimize patient recovery. This information will be used in the development of a patient-centered recovery assessment tool.

The timing and prevalence of intraoperative hypotension in infants undergoing laparoscopic pyloromyotomy at a tertiary pediatric hospital.

BACKGROUND: Intraoperative hypotension may be associated with adverse outcomes in children undergoing surgery. Infants and neonates under 6 months of age have less autoregulatory cerebral reserve than older infants, yet little information exists regarding when and how often intraoperative hypotension occurs in infants. AIMS: To better understand the epidemiology of intraoperative hypotension in infants, we aimed to determine the prevalence of intraoperative hypotension in a generally uniform population of infants undergoing laparoscopic pyloromyotomy. METHODS: Vital sign data from electronic records of infants who underwent laparoscopic pyloromyotomy with general anesthesia at a children's hospital between January 1, 1998 and October 4, 2013 were analyzed. Baseline blood pressure (BP) values and intraoperative BPs were identified during eight perioperative stages based on anesthesia event timestamps. We determined the occurrence of relative (systolic BP <20% below baseline) and absolute (mean arterial BP <35 mmHg) intraoperative hypotension within each stage. RESULTS: A total of 735 full-term infants and 82 preterm infants met the study criteria. Relative intraoperative hypotension occurred in 77%, 72%, and 58% of infants in the 1-30, 31-60, and 61-90 days age groups, respectively. Absolute intraoperative hypotension was seen in 21%, 12%, and 4% of infants in the 1-30, 31-60, and 61-90 days age groups, respectively. Intraoperative hypotension occurred primarily during surgical prep and throughout the surgical procedure. Preterm infants had higher rates of absolute intraoperative hypotension than full-term infants. CONCLUSIONS: Relative intraoperative hypotension was routine and absolute intraoperative hypotension was common in neonates and infants under 91 days of age. Preterm infants and infants under 61 days of age experienced the highest rates of absolute and relative intraoperative hypotension, particularly during surgical prep and throughout surgery.

Large-Scale Telemedicine Implementation for Outpatient Clinicians: Results From a Pandemic-Adapted Learning Collaborative.

Learning collaboratives are seldom used outside of health care quality improvement. We describe a condensed, 10-week learning collaborative ("Telemedicine Hack") that facilitated telemedicine implementation for outpatient clinicians early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Live attendance averaged 1688 participants per session. Of 1005 baseline survey respondents, 57% were clinicians with one-third identifying as from a racial/ethnic minoritized group. Practice characteristics included primary care (71%), rural settings (51%), and community health centers (28%). Of three surveys, a high of 438 (81%) of 540 clinicians had billed ≥1 video-based telemedicine visit. Our learning collaborative "sprint" is a promising model for scaling knowledge during emergencies and addressing health inequities.

Longitudinal stream synoptic monitoring tracks chemicals along watershed continuums: a typology of trends.

There are challenges in monitoring and managing water quality due to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in contaminant sources, transport, and transformations. We demonstrate the importance of longitudinal stream synoptic (LSS) monitoring, which can track combinations of water quality parameters along flowpaths across space and time. Specifically, we analyze longitudinal patterns of chemical mixtures of carbon, nutrients, greenhouse gasses, salts, and metals concentrations along 10 flowpaths draining 1,765 km2 of the Chesapeake Bay region. These 10 longitudinal stream flowpaths are drained by watersheds experiencing either urban degradation, forest and wetland conservation, or stream and floodplain restoration. Along the 10 longitudinal stream flowpaths, we monitored over 300 total sampling sites along a combined stream length of 337 km. Synoptic monitoring along longitudinal flowpaths revealed: (1) increasing, decreasing, piecewise, or no trends and transitions in water quality with increasing distance downstream, which provide insights into water quality processes along flowpaths; (2) longitudinal trends and transitions in water quality along flowpaths can be quantified and compared using simple linear and non-linear statistical relationships with distance downstream and/or land use/land cover attributes, (3) attenuation and transformation of chemical cocktails along flowpaths depend on: spatial scales, pollution sources, and transitions in land use and management, hydrology, and restoration. We compared our LSS patterns with others from the global literature to synthesize a typology of longitudinal water quality trends and transitions in streams and rivers based on hydrological, biological, and geochemical processes. Applications of LSS monitoring along flowpaths from our results and the literature reveal: (1) if there are shifts in pollution sources, trends, and transitions along flowpaths, (2) which pollution sources can spread further downstream to sensitive receiving waters such as drinking water supplies and coastal zones, and (3) if transitions in land use, conservation, management, or restoration can attenuate downstream transport of pollution sources. Our typology of longitudinal water quality responses along flowpaths combines many observations across suites of chemicals that can follow predictable patterns based on watershed characteristics. Our typology of longitudinal water quality responses also provides a foundation for future studies, watershed assessments, evaluating watershed management and stream restoration, and comparing watershed responses to non-point and point pollution sources along streams and rivers. LSS monitoring, which integrates both spatial and temporal dimensions and considers multiple contaminants together (a chemical cocktail approach), can be a comprehensive strategy for tracking sources, fate, and transport of pollutants along stream flowpaths and making comparisons of water quality patterns across different watersheds and regions.

COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of "social distancing" policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, could potentially overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between some state-level "social distancing" policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

An Interactive Virtual Reality Tour for Adolescents Receiving Proton Radiation Therapy: Proof-of-Concept Study.

BACKGROUND: Child life therapists provide patient education for children undergoing radiation therapy to assist in coping with and understanding their treatment. OBJECTIVE: This proof-of-concept study aimed to determine the feasibility of incorporating a 360-degree video tour via a virtual reality system for children scheduled to receive radiation therapy. The secondary objective was to qualitatively describe each subject's virtual reality experience. METHODS: Children aged ≥13 years scheduled to receive proton radiation therapy were included in the study. Subjects watched the 360-degree video of the radiation therapy facility in an immersive virtual reality environment with a child life therapist experienced in coaching children receiving radiation therapy and completed a survey after the tour. RESULTS: Eight subjects consented to participate in the study, and six subjects completed the 360-degree video tour and survey. All the enrolled patients completed the tour successfully. Two subjects did not complete the survey. Two subjects requested to pause the tour to ask questions about the facility. Five subjects said the tour was helpful preparation before undergoing proton radiation therapy. Subjects stated that the tour was helpful because "it showed [them] what's to come" and was helpful to see "what it's like to lay in the machine." One subject said, "it made me feel less nervous." Six subjects stated that they would like to see this type of tour available for other areas of the hospital, such as diagnostic imaging rooms. None of the subjects experienced nausea or vomiting. CONCLUSIONS: The 360-degree video tour allowed patients to explore the treatment facility in a comfortable environment. Participants felt that the tour was beneficial and would appreciate seeing other parts of the hospital in this manner.

Visual analytical tool for evaluation of 10-year perioperative transfusion practice at a children's hospital.

Children are a vulnerable population in the operating room, and are particularly at risk of complications from unanticipated hemorrhage. The decision to prepare blood products prior to surgery varies depending on the personal experience of the clinician caring for the patient. We present the first application of a data visualization technique to study large datasets in the context of blood product transfusions at a tertiary pediatric hospital. The visual analytical interface allows real-time interaction with datasets from 230 000 procedure records. Clinicians can use the visual analytical interface to analyze blood product usage based on procedure- and patient-specific factors, and then use that information to guide policies for ordering blood products.