MELD-Lactate Predicts Poor Outcome in Variceal Bleeding in Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Predictors of poor outcome associated with variceal bleeding remain suboptimal. In patients with cirrhosis, serum lactate combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-LA) improved prediction across heterogeneous populations. However, prognostic properties have not yet been assessed in the context of variceal bleeding. AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of MELD-LA compared to MELD, lactate, and nadir hemoglobin in cirrhosis patients with variceal bleeding. METHODS: In this multicenter study, we identified 472 patients with variceal bleeding from a German primary cohort (University Hospitals Hamburg/Frankfurt/Cologne), and two independent external validation cohorts [Veterans Affairs (VA), Baylor University]. Discrimination for 30-day mortality was analyzed and scores were compared. MELD-LA was evaluated separately in validation cohorts to ensure consistency of findings. RESULTS: In contrast to nadir hemoglobin, MELD and peak-lactate at time of bleeding were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors in the primary cohort (p = 0.708; p < 0.001). MELD-LA had excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality (AUROC 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88), better than MELD and peak-lactate (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.84; AUROC 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.81). MELD-LA predicted 30-day mortality independently of age, sex, severity of liver disease and vasopressor support (HR 1.29 per 1-point-increase of MELD-LA; 95% CI 1.19-1.41; p < 0.001). Similarly, MELD-LA demonstrated excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality in the VA (AUROC = 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.93) and Baylor cohort (AUROC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-LA significantly improves discrimination of short-term mortality associated with variceal bleeding, compared to MELD, peak-lactate and nadir hemoglobin. Thus, MELD-LA might represent a useful and objective marker for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention in patients with variceal bleeding.

Colonization with multidrug-resistant organisms impairs survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: MDRO-colonization has been shown to impair survival in patients with hematological malignancies and solid tumors as well as in patients with liver disease. Despite the increasing spread of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO), its impact on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been studied. We conducted this retrospective study to analyze the impact of MDRO-colonization on overall prognosis in HCC patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients with confirmed HCC diagnosed between January 2008 and December 2017 at the University Hospital Frankfurt were included in this study. HCC patients with a positive MDRO screening before or within the first 90 days after diagnosis of HCC were defined as colonized HCC patients, HCC patients with a negative MDRO screening were defined as noncolonized HCC patients. RESULTS: 59 (6%) colonized and 895 (94%) noncolonized HCC patients were included. Enterobacterales with extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-like phenotype with or without resistance to fluoroquinolones (ESBL/ ± FQ) were the most frequently found MDRO with 59%, followed by vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium with 37%. Colonized HCC patients had more severe cirrhosis and more advanced HCC stage compared to noncolonized HCC patients. Colonized HCC patients showed an impaired survival with a median OS of 189 days (6.3 months) compared to a median OS of 1001 days (33.4 months) in noncolonized HCC patients. MDRO-colonization was identified as an independent risk factor associated with survival in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: MDRO-colonization is an independent risk factor for survival in patients with HCC highlighting the importance of regular MDRO screening, isolation measures as well as interdisciplinary antibiotic steward-ship programs to guide responsible use of antibiotic agents.