Demographic, clinical, and psychosocial predictors of the reliability of mothers' clinical judgments.

The purpose of this study was to investigate to what extent selected adverse demographic, clinical, and psychosocial data measured at the 2-week well child visit could predict poorer reliability of mothers' judgments during acute illness episodes over the next 32 months. The study was a randomized trial of the Acute Illness Observation Scales (AIOS); 369 mothers participated, 183 in the intervention group using the Acute Illness Observation Scales and 186 in the control group using a three-point global assessment scale. There were 704 acute illnesses judged simultaneously and independently by mothers and pediatricians. Standard Pearson r correlations were performed between the independent variables, taken singly and in all possible combinations, and the dependent variable, reliability of mothers' judgments as measured by weighted kappa (kappa W). Group assignment was entered as an independent variable. Analyses were performed separately for all first, second, and third acute illness visits to control for any "practice effect" (analysis 1). To control for consistency of observers, the first, second, and third visits of mothers with three visits were also analyzed (analysis 2). Depending on the visit number, adverse demographic, clinical, and psychosocial characteristics did correlate with poorer reliability independent of group assignment. The correlations ranged from small (analysis 1, first visit, multiple variable r2 = 4%) to large (analysis 2, second visit, multiple variable r2 = 29%). Controlling for both visit number and consistency of observers vs visit number alone (analysis 2 vs analysis 1) increased multivariate correlations to kappa W. The results support the untoward impact that adverse demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors have on mothers' clinical judgment. These data may assist pediatricians in identifying parents who might benefit from more intensive teaching and support about acute illness episodes in their children.

Mothers' clinical judgment: a randomized trial of the Acute Illness Observation Scales.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of mothers' judgments about acute illnesses in their children could be improved by using the Acute Illness Observation Scales (AIOS). At the 2-week well child care visit in a primary care center and a private practice, 369 mothers were divided at random into an intervention group (n = 183) and a control group (n = 186). A teaching film and booklet were used to educate mothers in the intervention group about the AIOS; control group mothers were taught a 3-point global scoring system for evaluating the chance of serious illness. In the 32 months of follow-up, 704 acute illnesses were evaluated in tandem and independently by mothers and pediatricians before the history and physical examination; 20 of these illnesses were serious. The judgments of the intervention group were more reliable than those of the control group (weighted kappa = 0.50 vs 0.26, respectively), as was the specificity of their judgments (85% vs 52%, respectively; p less than 0.0001). No difference was noted in the sensitivity of intervention group and control group mothers' judgments (80% vs 90%, respectively). Teaching parents to assess specific clinical information, as represented in the AIOS, has its greatest effect on the reliability and specificity, not the sensitivity, of their judgments. Such teaching could lead to fewer unnecessary office visits during acute illnesses.