Evaluating Single-Spacecraft Observations of Planetary Magnetotails With Simple Monte Carlo Simulations: 1. Spatial Distributions of the Neutral Line.

A simple Monte Carlo model is presented that considers the effects of spacecraft orbital sampling on the inferred distribution of magnetic flux ropes, generated through magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail current sheet. When generalized, the model allows the determination of the number of orbits required to constrain the underlying population of structures: It is able to quantify this as a function of the physical parameters of the structures (e.g., azimuthal extent and probability of generation). The model is shown adapted to the Hermean magnetotail, where the outputs are compared to the results of a recent survey. This comparison suggests that the center of Mercury's neutral line is located dawnward of midnight by 0 . 3 7 - 1 . 02 + 1 . 21 R M and that the flux ropes are most likely to be wide azimuthally (∼50% of the width of the Hermean tail). The downtail location of the neutral line is not self-consistent or in agreement with previous (independent) studies unless dissipation terms are included planetward of the reconnection site; potential physical explanations are discussed. In the future the model could be adapted to other environments, for example, the dayside magnetopause or other planetary magnetotails.

Evaluating Single Spacecraft Observations of Planetary Magnetotails With Simple Monte Carlo Simulations: 2. Magnetic Flux Rope Signature Selection Effects.

A Monte Carlo method of investigating the effects of placing selection criteria on the magnetic signature of in situ encounters with flux ropes is presented. The technique is applied to two recent flux rope surveys of MESSENGER data within the Hermean magnetotail. It is found that the different criteria placed upon the signatures will preferentially identify slightly different subsets of the underlying population. Quantifying the selection biases first allows the distributions of flux rope parameters to be corrected, allowing a more accurate estimation of the intrinsic distributions. This is shown with regard to the distribution of flux rope radii observed. When accounting for the selection criteria, the mean radius of Hermean magnetotail quasi-force-free flux ropes is found to be 58 9 - 269 + 273  km. Second, it is possible to weight the known identifications in order to determine a rate of recurrence that accounts for the presence of the structures that will not be identified. In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi-force-free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min-1 when selection effects are accounted for (up from 0.05 min-1 previously inferred from observations).