The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change.

Despite recent economic growth and reductions in child mortality in many African countries, the region has experienced a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the slow structural economic change on the continent can explain this discrepancy. We construct a unique panel dataset combining Demographic and Health Surveys and nighttime light intensity data (an indicator of industrialization) from 57 countries at the subnational region level over three decades to analyze the drivers of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female primary education are crucial for fertility declines. However, our analysis also highlights the importance of indicators of structural economic change, including the share of labor in nonagricultural occupations, industrialization, the share of women with higher education, and the formalization of the economy. Our simulations suggest that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent structural economic transformations comparable to those of other low- and middle-income countries with low fertility rates, their fertility levels could fall by 1 to 1.6 children.

Unpacking the impact of COVID-19 on child immunization: evidence from Ghana.

BACKGROUND: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments implemented social distancing regulations to limit the spread of the disease. Some health experts warned that these measures could negatively affect access to essential health services, such as routine childhood immunizations. Others noted that without these regulations, COVID-19 cases would increase, leading to overburdened health systems. METHODS: We analyze four years (2018-2021) of monthly administrative data on childhood immunizations in all administrative districts in Ghana and exploit variations in social distancing regulations across districts. Given variations in social distancing regulations across Ghanaian districts, we can further differentiate between the effect of public lockdowns and the effect of the pandemic. RESULTS: We find that child immunizations in Ghana declined by 6% during the public lockdown in April 2020, but the country compensated with higher vaccination rates starting in June, and immunization services recovered to pre-pandemic growth levels by 2021. Time-critical vaccines, such as polio, were not affected at all. We do find a substantially larger disruption in April 2020 (14%) and a slower recovery in 2020 in the 40 lockdown-affected districts. Interestingly, vaccination rates already decreased in February and March by about 5% before the public lockdown and before the pandemic had reached Ghana, but with the pandemic already spreading globally and in the news. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the negative effect on child immunization was less severe and shorter than predicted by experts. Fear of COVID-19 and delayed vaccination campaigns had a substantial impact on childhood immunization while rising COVID-19 cases and moderate social distancing regulations did not seem to affect immunization rates.

Toward mandatory health insurance in low-income countries? An analysis of claims data in Tanzania.

Many low-income countries are in the process of scaling up health insurance with the goal of achieving universal coverage. However, little is known about the usage and financial sustainability of mandatory health insurance. This study analyzes 26 million claims submitted to the Tanzanian National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), which covers two million public servants for whom public insurance is mandatory, to understand insurance usage patterns, cost drivers, and financial sustainability. We find that in 2016, half of policyholders used a health service within a single year, with an average annual cost of 33 US$ per policyholder. About 10% of the population was responsible for 80% of the health costs, and women, middle-age and middle-income groups had the highest costs. Out of 7390 health centers, only five health centers are responsible for 30% of total costs. Estimating the expected health expenditures for the entire population based on the NHIF cost structure, we find that for a sustainable national scale-up, policy makers will have to decide between reducing the health benefit package or increasing revenues. We also show that the cost structure of a mandatory insurance scheme in a low-income country differs substantially from high-income settings. Replication studies for other countries are warranted.

What agro-input dealers know, sell and say to smallholder farmers about pesticides: a mystery shopping and KAP analysis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Pesticides can have negative effects on human and environmental health, especially when not handled as intended. In many countries, agro-input dealers sell pesticides to smallholder farmers and are supposed to provide recommendations on application and handling. This study investigates the role of agro-input dealers in transmitting safety information from chemical manufacturers to smallholder farmers, assesses the safety of their shops, what products they sell, and how agro-input dealers abide by laws and recommendations on best practices for preventing pesticide risk situations. METHODS: Applying a mixed-methods approach, we studied agro-input dealers in Central and Western Uganda. Structured questionnaires were applied to understand agro-input dealers' knowledge, attitude and practices on pesticides (n = 402). Shop layout (n = 392) and sales interaction (n = 236) were assessed through observations. Actual behavior of agro-input dealers when selling pesticides was revealed through mystery shopping with local farmers buying pesticides (n = 94). RESULTS: While 97.0% of agro-input dealers considered advising customers their responsibility, only 26.6% of mystery shoppers received any advice from agro-input dealers when buying pesticides. 53.2% of products purchased were officially recommended. Sales interactions focused mainly on product choice and price. Agro-input dealers showed limited understanding of labels and active ingredients. Moreover, 25.0% of shops were selling repackaged products, while 10.5% sold unmarked or unlabeled products. 90.1% of shops were lacking safety equipment. Pesticides of World Health Organization toxicity class I and II were sold most frequently. Awareness of health effects seemed to be high, although agro-input dealers showed incomplete hygiene practices and were lacking infrastructure. One reason for these findings might be that only 55.7% of agro-input dealers held a certificate of competency on safe handling of pesticides and even fewer (5.7%) were able to provide a government-approved up-to-date license. CONCLUSION: The combination of interviews, mystery shopping and observations proved to be useful, allowing the comparison of stated and actual behavior. While agro-input dealers want to sell pesticides and provide the corresponding risk advice, their customers might receive neither the appropriate product nor sufficient advice on proper handling. In light of the expected increase in pesticide use, affordable, accessible and repeated pesticide training and shop inspections are indispensable.

Managing the COVID-19 pandemic in poor urban neighborhoods: The case of Accra and Johannesburg.

Without a vaccine, practicing social distancing and protective hygiene are the most effective measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. In order to understand how the urban poor mitigate their risk of infection, we conducted a survey with more than 1,400 poor households in two of the African cities with the most COVID-19 infections, Accra and Greater Johannesburg, early in the pandemic, during lockdowns of public life. We find that many of the urban poor already engage in the appropriate hygienic behavior and follow social distancing rules. However, despite citywide lockdowns, about 25-40% of people still report attending large gatherings, 10-20% report receiving guests at home, and 30-35% report leaving the house more than once per week. Lack of cooperation with governmental regulations seems to be more related to a lack of infrastructure or poverty rather than unwillingness to engage in behavioral change. Interestingly, even with the stricter lockdown in South Africa, people are at least equally likely to deviate from social distancing rules. Our results indicate that more South African respondents perceive their government's actions as too extreme and underestimate COVID-19 cases in their country. About half of the sample in both countries report knowing (mainly through TV) about current COVID-19 case numbers. Most participants know that coughing is a symptom, but only half mention fever and difficulty breathing, and very few people mention tiredness. Ghanaians seem to be somewhat better informed. While lack of information is an issue, misinformation appears to be limited. We conclude that a costly shutdown of public life is only effective-and might even be prevented-with a well-informed population, who perceives their government's actions as appropriate and who has access to the infrastructure required to follow WHO safety regulations.

Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space.

Economists have often argued that high fertility rates are mainly driven by women's demand for children (and not by family planning efforts) with low levels of unwanted fertility across countries (and hence with little room for family planning efforts to reduce population growth). We study the relationship between wanted fertility and number of children born in a panel of 200 country-years controlling for country fixed effects and global time trends. In general, we find a close relationship between wanted and actual fertility, with one desired child leading to one additional birth. However, our results also indicate that in the last 20 years, the level of unwanted births has stayed at 2 across African countries but has, on average, decreased from 1 to close to 0 in other developing countries. Hence, women in African countries are less able to translate child preferences into birth outcomes than women in other developing countries, and forces other than fertility demand have been important for previous fertility declines in many developing countries. Family planning efforts only partially explain the observed temporal and spatial differences in achieving desired fertility levels.

Seasonal variations and shared latrine cleaning practices in the slums of Kampala city, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The effect of seasons on health outcomes is a reflection on the status of public health and the state of development in a given society. Evidence shows that in Sub-Saharan Africa, most infectious diseases flourish during the wet months of the year; while human activities in a context of constrained choices in life exacerbate the effects of seasons on human health. The paper argues that, the wet season and when human activities are at their peak, sanitation is most dire poor slum populations. METHODS: A shared latrine cleaning observation was undertaken over a period of 6 months in the slums of Kampala city. Data was collected through facility observations, user group meetings, Focus group discussions and, key informant interviews. The photos of the observed sanitation facilities were taken and assessed for facility cleanliness or dirt. Shared latrine pictures, observations, Focus Group Discussion, community meetings and key informant interviews were analysed and subjected to an analysis over the wet, dry and human activity cycles before a facility was categorised as either 'dirty' or 'clean'. RESULTS: Human activity cycles also referred to as socio-economic seasons were, school days, holidays, weekends and market days. These have been called 'impure' seasons, while the 'pure' seasons were the wet and dry months: improved and unimproved facilities were negatively affected by the wet seasons and the peak seasons of human activity. Wet seasons were associated with, mud and stagnant water, flooding pits and a repugnant smell from the latrine cubicle which made cleaning difficult. During the dry season, latrines became relatively cleaner than during the wet season. The presence of many child(ren) users during school days as well as the influx of market goers for the roadside weekly markets compromised the cleaning outcomes for these shared sanitation facilities. CONCLUSION: Shared latrine cleaning in slums is impacted by seasonal variations related to weather conditions and human activity. The wet seasons made the already bad sanitation situation worse. The seasonal fluctuations in the state of shared slum sanitation relate to a wider malaise in the population and an implied capacity deficit among urban authorities. Poor sanitation in slums is part of a broader urban mismanagement conundrum pointing towards the urgent need for multiple interventions aimed at improving the general urban living conditions well beyond sanitation.

Gender variations in access, choice to use and cleaning of shared latrines; experiences from Kampala Slums, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Sanitation is one of the most intimate issues that affect women, especially in slums of developing countries. There are few studies that have paid attention to the gender variations in access, choice to use and cleaning of shared latrines in slums. METHODS: This paper draws on qualitative data from a cross sectional study conducted between 2012 and 2013 in six slums of Kampala City, Uganda. The study involved both women and men. Data were collected from 12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), 15 Key informant interviews; community transects and photographs of shared latrines. RESULTS: Location of a shared latrine facility, distance, filthy, narrow and irregular paths; the time when a facility is visited (day or night), privacy and steep inclines were gender 'filters' to accessing shared latrines. A full latrine pit was more likely to inhibit access to and choice of a facility for women than men. Results indicate that the available coping mechanisms turned out to be gendered, with fewer options available for women than men. On the whole, women sought for privacy, easy reach, self-respect and esteem, cleanliness and privacy than men. While men like women also wanted clean facilities for use; they (men) were not keen on cleaning these facilities. The cleaning of shared latrines was seen by both women and men as a role for women. CONCLUSION: The presence of sanitation facilities as the first step in the access, choice, use, and cleaning by both women and men has distinct motivations and limitations along gender lines. The study confirms that the use and cleaning of latrines is regulated by gender in daily living. Using a latrine for women was much more than relieving oneself: it involved security, intimacy and health concerns.

Descending the sanitation ladder in urban Uganda: evidence from Kampala Slums.

BACKGROUND: While the sanitation ladder is useful in analysing progressive improvements in sanitation, studies in Uganda have not indicated the sanitation barriers faced by the urban poor. There are various challenges in shared latrine use, cleaning and maintenance. Results from Kampala city indicate that, failure to clean and maintain sanitation infrastructure can lead to a reversal of the potential benefits that come with various sanitation facilities. METHODS: A cross sectional qualitative study was conducted between March and May 2013. Data were collected through 18 focus group discussions (FGDs) held separately; one with women, men and youth respectively. We also used pictorial methods; in addition, 16 key informant interviews were conducted. Data were analysed using content thematic approach. Relevant quotations per thematic area were identified and have been used in the presentation of the results. RESULTS: Whether a shared sanitation facility was improved or not, it was abandoned once it was not properly used and cleaned. The problem of using shared latrines began with the lack of proper latrine training when people do not know how to squat on the latrine hole. The constrained access and security concerns, obscure paths that were filthy especially at night, lack of light in the latrine cubicle, raised latrines sometimes up to two metres above the ground, coupled with lack of cleaning and emptying the shared facilities only made a bad situation worse. In this way, open defecation gradually substituted use of the available sanitation facilities. This paper argues that, filthy latrines have the same net effect as crude open defection. CONCLUSION: Whereas most sanitation campaigns are geared towards provision of improved sanitation infrastructure, these findings show that mere provision of infrastructure (improved or not) without adequate emphasis on proper use, cleaning and maintenance triggers an involuntary descent off the sanitation ladder. Understanding this reversal movement is critical in sustainable sanitation services and should be a concern for all actors.

Pumps, germs and storage: the impact of improved water containers on water quality and health.

Applying a randomized controlled trial, we study the impact of improved water transport and storage containers on the water quality and health of poor rural households. The results indicate that improved household water infrastructure improves water quality and health outcomes in an environment where point-of-source water quality is good but where recontamination is widespread, leading to unsafe point-of-use drinking water. Moreover, usage rates of 88% after 7 months are encouraging with regard to sustainable adoption. Our estimates suggest that the provision of improved household water infrastructure could 'keep clean water clean' at a cost of only 5% of the costs of providing households with improved public water supply. Given the general consensus in the literature that recontamination of water from improved public sources is a severe public health problem, improved transport and storage technologies appear to be an effective low-cost supplement to the current standard of financing public water supply for poor rural communities.

State of the art in human risk assessment of silver compounds in consumer products: a conference report on silver and nanosilver held at the BfR in 2012.

In light of the broad spectrum of products containing nanosilver, the harmfulness of nanosilver to human health and the environment was intensively discussed at a conference held in February 2012 at the BfR. The conference agenda covered the aspects of analytics of nanosilver materials, human exposure and toxicology as well as effects on microorganisms and the environment. The discussion recovered major gaps related to commonly agreed guidelines for sample preparation and central analytical techniques. In particular, the characterization of the nanoparticles in complex matrices was regarded as a challenge which might become a pitfall for further innovation and application. Historical and anecdotal records of colloidal silver have been sometimes taken as empirical proof for the general low toxicity of nanosilver. Yet as reported herein, a growing number of animal studies following modern performance standards of toxicity testing have been carried out recently revealing well-characterized adverse effects on different routes of exposure in addition to argyria. Furthermore, recent approaches in exposure assessment were reported. However, consumer exposure scenarios are only starting to be developed and reliable exposure data are still rare. It was further widely agreed on the workshop that the use of silver may lead to the selection of silver resistant bacteria. With respect to its environmental behavior, it was suggested that nanosilver released to wastewater may have negligible ecotoxicological effects. Finally, the presentations and discussion on risk assessment and regulation of nanosilver applications gave insights into different approaches of risk assessment of nanomaterials to be performed under the various regulatory frameworks.

Mobility in informal settlements during a public lockdown: A case study in South Africa.

Many African countries quickly responded to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with lockdowns of public life. Yet, many have large numbers of dense informal settlements where infrastructure is shared, houses are small, and residents live on low incomes. These conditions make complying with curfews extraordinarily difficult. Using pedestrian motion sensors installed throughout an informal settlement in Cape Town, South Africa, we study how the lockdown affected mobility in the evenings, early mornings, and during the nights between February 14 and June 18, 2020. We find that mobility was already decreasing in March prior to the start of lockdown by 23% in paths-about half of the overall decline-and by 19% in shared courtyards. Starting with the lockdown on March 27, pedestrian activity decreased by 48% in comparison to February 2020 across paths and by 61% in shared courtyards. We notice the biggest changes on weekends, normally key leisure times, and between 6:00 pm and 9:00 pm and between 6:00 am and 8:00 am, spanning typical commute hours, though these hours continue to have the most activity indicating some people continue to commute. The results show that mobility reduction is large, though generally smaller than reductions observed in high-income countries. We find that residents of informal settlements comply with state-mandated lockdowns to the best of their ability given the circumstances, but that awareness of COVID-19 with less strict regulations prior to lockdown also led to mobility declines.

An index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible.

To identify areas at highest risk of infectious disease transmission in Africa, we develop a physical distancing index (PDI) based on the share of households without access to private toilets, water, space, transportation, and communication technology and weight it with population density. Our results highlight that in addition to improving health systems, countries across Africa, especially in the western part of Africa, need to address the lack of essential domestic infrastructure. Missing infrastructure prevents societies from limiting the spread of communicable diseases by undermining the effectiveness of governmental regulations on physical distancing. We also provide high-resolution risk maps that show which regions are most limited in protecting themselves. We find considerable spatial heterogeneity of the PDI within countries and show that it is highly correlated with detected COVID-19 cases. Governments could pay specific attention to these areas to target limited resources more precisely to prevent disease transmission.

Economic Recovery but Stagnating Mental Health During a Global Pandemic? Evidence from Ghana and South Africa.

Ghana and South Africa proactively implemented lockdowns very early in the pandemic. We analyze a three-wave panel of households in Accra and Greater Johannesburg to study the mental and economic well-being of the urban poor between the COVID-19 lockdown and the "new normal" one year later. We find that even if economic well-being has mostly recovered, life satisfaction has only improved slightly and feelings of depression are again at lockdown levels one year into the pandemic. While economic factors are strongly correlated with mental health and explain the differences in mental health between South Africa and Ghana, increasing worries about the future and limited knowledge about the pandemic (both countries) as well as deteriorating physical health (South Africa) and trust in government (Ghana) explain why mental health has not recovered. Therefore, we need broad and country-specific policies, beyond financial support, to accelerate the post-pandemic recovery of the urban poor.

Slum residence and child health in developing countries.

Continued population growth and increasing urbanization have led to the formation of large informal urban settlements in many developing countries in recent decades. The high prevalence of poverty, overcrowding, and poor sanitation observed in these settlements-commonly referred to as "slums"-suggests that slum residence constitutes a major health risk for children. In this article, we use data from 191 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 73 developing countries to investigate this concern empirically. Our results indicate that children in slums have better health outcomes than children living in rural areas yet fare worse than children in better-off neighborhoods of the same urban settlements. A large fraction of the observed health differences appears to be explained by pronounced differences in maternal education, household wealth, and access to health services across residential areas. After we control for these characteristics, children growing up in the slums and better-off neighborhoods of towns show levels of morbidity and mortality that are not statistically different from those of children living in rural areas. Compared with rural children, children living in cities (irrespective of slum or formal residence) fare better with respect to mortality and stunting but not with respect to recent illness episodes.

The effect of water and sanitation on child health: evidence from the demographic and health surveys 1986-2007.

BACKGROUND: Despite continued national and international efforts, access to improved water and sanitation remains limited in many developing countries. The health consequences of lacking access to water and sanitation are severe, and particularly important for child development. METHODS: To investigate the associations between child health and access to water and sanitation, we merged all available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) with complete birth histories and water and sanitation information. The merged data set of 171 surveys includes information on 1.1 million children under the age of 5 years in 70 low- and middle-income countries over the period 1986-2007. We used logistic models to estimate the effect of water and sanitation access on infant and child mortality, diarrhoea and stunting. RESULTS: Access to improved sanitation was associated with lower mortality (OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.86), a lower risk of child diarorhea (OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90) and a lower risk of mild or severe stunting (OR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.71-0.75). Access to improved water was associated with a lower risk of diarrhoea (OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94) and a lower risk of mild or severe stunting (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94), but did not show any association with non-infant child mortality (OR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.88-1.04). CONCLUSIONS: Although our point estimates indicate somewhat smaller protective effects than some of the estimates reported in the existing literature, the results presented in this article strongly underline the large health consequences of lacking access to water and sanitation for children aged <5 years in low- and middle-income countries.