Use of signals and systems engineering to improve the safety of warfarin initiation.

Warfarin-dosing algorithms combine clinical factors and dosing history with the current international normalized ratio (INR) to estimate the therapeutic warfarin dose. Unfortunately, these approaches can result in an overdose if the INR is spuriously low. Our goal was to develop an alert mechanism based on prior INRs in addition to the current INR. Using data from the Genetics InFormatics Trial (GIFT) of Warfarin to Prevent DVT, we analyzed warfarin dose estimates for days 3 through 11 that were ≥10 % higher than an average of the previous two dose estimates. We fit a stepwise mixed model to current and prior dose estimates, and subsequently compared the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) in predicting the final therapeutic dose using the GIFT algorithm versus the mixed model. From 861 dosing records (obtain from 556 patients), 646 dosing records (75 %) were randomly selected for the derivation cohort and 215 dosing records (25 %) for the validation cohort. Using one prior dose estimate improved the accuracy of the warfarin dose estimate. Compared to a dose estimate based on current INR (GIFT algorithm), the mixed model reduced the RMSE in the derivation cohort by 0.0015 mg/day (RMSE 0.2079 vs. 0.2094; p = 0.039). In the validation cohort, the RMSE reduction was not significant. A mixed model of dose estimates based on the current and most recent INRs shows potential to improve the safety of warfarin dosing. Clinicians should be cautious about aggressively escalating the warfarin dose after an INR that is lower than expected.

Estimation of the warfarin dose with clinical and pharmacogenetic data.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variability among patients plays an important role in determining the dose of warfarin that should be used when oral anticoagulation is initiated, but practical methods of using genetic information have not been evaluated in a diverse and large population. We developed and used an algorithm for estimating the appropriate warfarin dose that is based on both clinical and genetic data from a broad population base. METHODS: Clinical and genetic data from 4043 patients were used to create a dose algorithm that was based on clinical variables only and an algorithm in which genetic information was added to the clinical variables. In a validation cohort of 1009 subjects, we evaluated the potential clinical value of each algorithm by calculating the percentage of patients whose predicted dose of warfarin was within 20% of the actual stable therapeutic dose; we also evaluated other clinically relevant indicators. RESULTS: In the validation cohort, the pharmacogenetic algorithm accurately identified larger proportions of patients who required 21 mg of warfarin or less per week and of those who required 49 mg or more per week to achieve the target international normalized ratio than did the clinical algorithm (49.4% vs. 33.3%, P<0.001, among patients requiring < or = 21 mg per week; and 24.8% vs. 7.2%, P<0.001, among those requiring > or = 49 mg per week). CONCLUSIONS: The use of a pharmacogenetic algorithm for estimating the appropriate initial dose of warfarin produces recommendations that are significantly closer to the required stable therapeutic dose than those derived from a clinical algorithm or a fixed-dose approach. The greatest benefits were observed in the 46.2% of the population that required 21 mg or less of warfarin per week or 49 mg or more per week for therapeutic anticoagulation.

Genetics informatics trial (GIFT) of warfarin to prevent deep vein thrombosis (DVT): rationale and study design.

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is higher after the total hip or knee replacement surgery than after almost any other surgical procedure; warfarin sodium is commonly prescribed to reduce this peri-operative risk. Warfarin has a narrow therapeutic window with high inter-individual dose variability and can cause hemorrhage. The genetics-informatics trial (GIFT) of warfarin to prevent deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a 2 × 2 factorial-design, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the safety and effectiveness of warfarin-dosing strategies. GIFT will answer two questions: (1) does pharmacogenetic (PGx) dosing reduce the rate of adverse events in orthopedic patients; and (2) is a lower target international normalized ratio (INR) non-inferior to a higher target INR in orthopedic participants? The composite primary endpoint of the trial is symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE (identified on screening ultrasonography), major hemorrhage, INR ≥ 4, and death.

Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium (CPIC) Guideline for Pharmacogenetics-Guided Warfarin Dosing: 2017 Update.

This document is an update to the 2011 Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium (CPIC) guideline for CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes and warfarin dosing. Evidence from the published literature is presented for CYP2C9, VKORC1, CYP4F2, and rs12777823 genotype-guided warfarin dosing to achieve a target international normalized ratio of 2-3 when clinical genotype results are available. In addition, this updated guideline incorporates recommendations for adult and pediatric patients that are specific to continental ancestry.

Incidence of venous thromboembolism in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Current risk-prediction models classify NHL as a single entity. We aimed to quantify the difference in VTE risk in follicular lymphoma (FL) versus diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). METHODS: Using a prospective cohort study, we identified 2730 patients (2037 DLBCL; 693 FL) within the Veteran's Administration Central Cancer Registry. A competing risk model assessed the association between VTE risk and histology in the first year after NHL diagnosis. We assessed the effect of additional risk factors for VTE in NHL. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, DLBCL was associated with increased risk of VTE compared to FL in the first year after diagnosis; this association was no longer significant in adjusted analysis (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.52; 95% CI 0.97-2.40). Major risk factors for VTE included history of VTE before NHL diagnosis (aHR 4.73, p≤0.0001) and time period during chemotherapy administration (aHR 7.60, p≤0.0001). Additional risk factors included: stage III/IV disease (p=0.02), BMI≥30 (p=0.02), B-symptoms (p=0.02), and doxorubicin (p=0.04). The cumulative incidence of VTE was highest in the period following diagnosis and decreased over time for both histologies. CONCLUSION: DLBCL is associated with increased risk of VTE compared to FL. This risk is markedly attenuated when adjusting for additional risk factors. The strongest predictors for development of VTE included: time period during chemotherapy administration (especially doxorubicin) and history of VTE. This knowledge can assist clinicians in identifying NHL patients at high risk for VTE.

The effect of stroke and stroke prophylaxis with aspirin or warfarin on quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Because most strokes cause neurological impairment rather than death, stroke prophylaxis may improve quality of life more than length of life. Thus, an understanding of how stroke and stroke prophylaxis affect quality of life is central to clinical decision making for many patients. METHODS: We elicited quality-of-life estimates, known as utilities, for 3 degrees of severity of anticipated stroke-mild, moderate, and major- and for stroke prophylaxis with either warfarin sodium or aspirin therapy. We used the time tradeoff and standard gamble methods to elicit these utilities from 83 patients who had atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Seventy patients completed the interview successfully. Their utilities for stroke ranged from worse than death (< 0) to as good as current health (1.0). The median utilities for mild, moderate, and major stroke were 0.94, 0.07, and 0.0, respectively. Although the median utilities decreased with increasing severity of stroke (P < .001), there was high interpatient variability within each degree of stroke severity. For example, 7 subjects (10%) rated a major stroke above 0.5, while 58 subjects (83%) rated it as equal to or worse than death. In contrast to the stroke utilities, the median utilities for warfarin and aspirin therapy were high-0.997 and 1.0, respectively. However, the interpatient variability for warfarin therapy was also important: 11 patients (16%) with atrial fibrillation rated the utility of warfarin therapy so low that their quality-adjusted life expectancy would be greater with aspirin. CONCLUSION: Patients' utilities for stroke prophylaxis and anticipated stroke vary substantially. Many patients view the quality of life with major stroke as tantamount to or worse than death. These findings highlight the relevance of incorporating patient preferences when choosing stroke prophylaxis.

The impact of the introduction of a rapid D-dimer assay on the diagnostic evaluation of suspected pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Rapid D-dimer assays are being used in the diagnostic evaluation of suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). Although this hypothesis is anticipated to decrease the use of ventilation-perfusion (VQ) scans and other diagnostic tests for PE, it has not been tested in a "real-world" environment. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A randomized prospective trial was conducted on 470 of the 5390 enrolled patients aged 60 years and older who had previously undergone any diagnostic tests for PE at an urban teaching hospital. The use of D-dimer as part of the diagnostic evaluation for PE was promulgated in the 2 randomly chosen intervention firms. The remaining 2 firms served as controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of VQ scans, spiral computed tomographic scans, and pulmonary angiograms performed. Secondary outcomes included mortality and thromboembolic or bleeding events during 3 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 470 inpatients who underwent evaluation for PE on a per PE workup basis, fewer VQ scans were performed in the intervention firms (63.8% vs 81.3%; P<.01). However, the number of patients evaluated for PE nearly doubled in the intervention firms (304 vs 166; P<.01), so that more VQ scans were performed in the intervention than in the control firms (194 vs 135; P<.01). Ninety-four patients from the control firms and 160 patients from the intervention firms were diagnosed and treated for venous thromboembolic disease (P<.01). There were no differences in secondary outcomes during the 3-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a rapid D-dimer assay increased the number of VQ scans performed because the number of patients screened for PE increased. A larger number of patients in the intervention firms were diagnosed as having venous thromboembolic disease (PE and/or deep vein thrombosis). There were no perceived changes in mortality or venous thromboembolic events during the 3-month follow-up.

Effect of age on the incidence of venous thromboembolism after major surgery.

BACKGROUND: Most guidelines for administration of thromboprophylaxis after major surgery use age as a major predictor of postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE). We sought to quantify the effect of age on the risk of symptomatic VTE after a spectrum of surgical procedures. METHODS: Using the California Patient Discharge Data Set and specific ICD-9-CM surgical procedure codes, we retrospectively determined the incidence of VTE diagnosed within 91 days after 40 different urgent or elective surgeries performed in the hospital between 1992 and 1996. Logistic regression was used to quantify the effect of age on the incidence of postoperative VTE and to adjust for other risk factors. RESULTS: 1,464,452 cases underwent one of 40 different procedures (mean cases per procedure = 35,718, range 4500-145 500). There was a significant interaction between age and the type of surgery performed (P<0.0001). Qualitative analysis of the effect of age on the incidence of VTE stratified by the presence or absence of malignancy revealed three general patterns: a steady increase in the incidence of VTE with age, exemplified by appendectomy or cholecystectomy; an increase in VTE up to approximately age 65 with no increase thereafter, exemplified by total hip arthroplasty; and no effect of age on the incidence of VTE, exemplified by vascular surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between age and the risk of VTE after surgery is complex and depends on the nature of the surgery and the underlying pathologic process. Advancing age was a significant predictor for VTE following surgeries performed for conditions not inherently associated with significant comorbidity. Conversely, advancing age was not associated with a higher incidence of VTE after surgeries performed for conditions strongly associated with serious underlying comorbidity, such as a malignancy or severe peripheral vascular disease.

Management and dosing of warfarin therapy.

When initiating warfarin therapy, clinicians should avoid loading doses that can raise the International Normalized Ratio (INR) excessively; instead, warfarin should be initiated with a 5-mg dose (or 2 to 4 mg in the very elderly). With a 5-mg initial dose, the INR will not rise appreciably in the first 24 hours, except in rare patients who will ultimately require a very small daily dose (0.5 to 2.0 mg). Adjusting a steady-state warfarin dose depends on the measured INR values and clinical factors: the dose does not need to be adjusted for a single INR that is slightly out of range, and most changes should alter the total weekly dose by 5% to 20%. The INR should be monitored frequently (eg, 2 to 4 times per week) immediately after initiation of warfarin; subsequently, the interval between INR tests can be lengthened gradually (up to a maximum of 4 to 6 weeks) in patients with stable INR values. Patients who have an elevated INR will need more frequent testing and may also require vitamin K1. For example, a nonbleeding patient with an INR of 9 can be given low-dose vitamin K1 (eg, 2.5 mg phytonadione, by mouth). Patients who have an excessive INR with clinically important bleeding require clotting factors (eg, fresh-frozen plasma) as well as vitamin K1.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of therapy for symptomatic carotid occlusion: PET screening before selective extracranial-to-intracranial bypass versus medical treatment.

UNLABELLED: The St. Louis Carotid Occlusion Study (STLCOS) demonstrated that increased cerebral oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) detected by PET scanning predicted stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid occlusion. Consequently, a trial of extracranial-to-intracranial (EC/IC) arterial bypass for these patients was proposed. The purpose of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of using PET in identifying candidates for EC/IC bypass. METHODS: A Markov model was created to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PET screening and treating a cohort of 45 symptomatic patients with carotid occlusion. The primary outcome was incremental cost for PET screening and EC/IC bypass (if OEF was elevated) per incremental quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved. Rates of stroke and death with surgical and medical treatment were obtained from EC/IC Bypass Trial and STLCOS data. Costs were estimated from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed for all assumed variables, including the PET OEF threshold used to select patients for surgery. RESULTS: In the base case, PET screening of the cohort followed by EC/IC bypass on 36 of the 45 patients yielded 23.2 additional QALYs at a cost of $20,000 per QALY, compared with medical therapy alone. A more specific PET threshold, which identified 18 surgical candidates, gained 22.6 QALYs at less cost than medical therapy alone. The results were sensitive to the perioperative stroke rate and the stroke risk reduction conferred by EC/IC bypass surgery. CONCLUSION: If postoperative stroke rates are similar to stroke rates observed in the EC/IC Bypass Trial, EC/IC bypass will be cost-effective in patients with symptomatic carotid occlusion who have increased OEF. A clinical trial of medical therapy versus PET followed by EC/IC bypass (if OEF is elevated) is warranted.

Criteria for outpatient management of proximal lower extremity deep venous thrombosis.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To develop and to evaluate selection criteria for outpatient management of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). DESIGN: We developed outpatient treatment eligibility criteria that incorporated demographic and clinical data. We aimed to exclude patients at high risk for bleeding or recurrent clotting, as well as those with pulmonary embolism, limited cardiopulmonary reserve, or need for hospitalization due to another illness. Then, we retrospectively applied the criteria to hospitalized patients with newly diagnosed proximal lower extremity DVT to determine the fraction of patients eligible for outpatient therapy; patients were classified as eligible, possibly eligible, or ineligible for home treatment based on the selection criteria. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENTS: One hundred ninety-five hospitalized patients diagnosed as having proximal lower extremity DVT by duplex ultrasound over a 1-year period. MEASUREMENTS: Frequency of complications during initial DVT therapy, including major bleeding, symptomatic thromboembolism, and death. RESULTS: Eighteen (9%) patients were classified as eligible, and 18 (9%) were classified as possibly eligible for outpatient therapy. None of these patients developed complications. Of the 159 (82%) patients classified as ineligible, 13 (8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4 to 12%) died or developed serious complications. Therefore, the eligibility criteria had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI, 92 to 100%) and a negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 92 to 100%) for predicting serious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Specific eligibility criteria may identify a subset of patients with acute DVT who can be treated safely at home.

Establishing and running an effective telephone-based anticoagulation service.

Observational studies and randomized controlled trials have revealed improvement in international normalized ratio (INR) control and reduced thrombotic and hemorrhagic events in patients taking warfarin who are managed by an anticoagulation service (ACS) compared with traditional physician care. In this article, we describe how to establish a multidisciplinary telephone-based ACS to monitor INRs, dose warfarin, and heparin therapy, and to educate patients by telephone. We address how to improve ACS efficiency by using an electronic medical record, charting by exception, holding group-based education, communicating by telephone, and conducting quality assurance. We also make recommendations for improving the quality of care of patients taking anticoagulants that can be implemented in any setting and we discuss how to apply these guidelines to other remote disease-state management programs (eg, diabetes).

Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium Guidelines for CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes and warfarin dosing.

Warfarin is a widely used anticoagulant with a narrow therapeutic index and large interpatient variability in the dose required to achieve target anticoagulation. Common genetic variants in the cytochrome P450-2C9 (CYP2C9) and vitamin K-epoxide reductase complex (VKORC1) enzymes, in addition to known nongenetic factors, account for ~50% of warfarin dose variability. The purpose of this article is to assist in the interpretation and use of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotype data for estimating therapeutic warfarin dose to achieve an INR of 2-3, should genotype results be available to the clinician. The Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium (CPIC) of the National Institutes of Health Pharmacogenomics Research Network develops peer-reviewed gene-drug guidelines that are published and updated periodically on http://www.pharmgkb.org based on new developments in the field.(1).

Risk of stroke after surgery in patients with and without chronic atrial fibrillation.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND: The extent to which chronic atrial fibrillation affects the risk of postoperative stroke is largely unknown. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the 30-day rate of stroke among patients with and without chronic AF who underwent 10 different types of surgery. PATIENTS/METHODS: The crude incidence of stroke was retrospectively determined using a population-based linked administrative database of hospitalized patients who underwent specified operations between 1 January 1996 and 30 November 2005. The risk of stroke in patients with AF was adjusted for age, race, sex, presence of diabetes, heart failure, hypertension and prior stroke. RESULTS: The overall 30-day rate of stroke in 69 202 patients with chronic AF was 1.8% (95% CI, 1.7-1.9%) vs. 0.6% (CI, 0.58-0.62%) in 2 470 649 patients without AF. The risk-adjusted odds of a postoperative stroke in patients with chronic AF were 2.1 (CI, 2.0-2.3). The highest incremental difference in the crude rate of stroke was observed in patients undergoing neurologic or vascular surgery, with a difference of approximately 2%. CONCLUSION: Patients with chronic AF had twice the risk of postoperative stroke. Randomized trials are needed to determine if aggressive perioperative anticoagulation can reduce the incidence of postoperative stroke in patients with AF.

Ability of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 to predict therapeutic warfarin dose during the initial weeks of therapy.

BACKGROUND: CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes predict therapeutic warfarin dose at initiation of therapy; however, the predictive ability of genetic information after a week or longer is unknown. Experts have hypothesized that genotype becomes irrelevant once international normalized ratio (INR) values are available because INR response reflects warfarin sensitivity. METHODS: We genotyped the participants in the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism (PREVENT) trial, who had idiopathic venous thromboemboli and began low-intensity warfarin (therapeutic INR 1.5-2.0) using a standard dosing protocol. To develop pharmacogenetic models, we quantified the effect of genotypes, clinical factors, previous doses and INR on therapeutic warfarin dose in the 223 PREVENT participants who were randomized to warfarin and achieved stable therapeutic INRs. RESULTS: A pharmacogenetic model using data from day 0 (before therapy initiation) explained 54% of the variability in therapeutic dose (R(2)). The R(2) increased to 68% at day 7, 75% at day 14, and 77% at day 21, because of increasing contributions from prior doses and INR response. Although CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes were significant independent predictors of therapeutic dose at each weekly interval, the magnitude of their predictive ability diminished over time: partial R(2) of genotype was 43% at day 0, 12% at day 7, 4% at day 14, and 1% at day 21. CONCLUSION: Over the first weeks of warfarin therapy, INR and prior dose become increasingly predictive of therapeutic dose, and genotype becomes less relevant. However, at day 7, genotype remains clinically relevant, accounting for 12% of therapeutic dose variability.

A polymorphism in the VKORC1 regulator calumenin predicts higher warfarin dose requirements in African Americans.

Warfarin demonstrates a wide interindividual variability in response that is mediated partly by variants in cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) and vitamin K 2,3-epoxide reductase complex subunit 1 (VKORC1). It is not known whether variants in calumenin (CALU) (vitamin K reductase regulator) have an influence on warfarin dose requirements. We resequenced CALU regions in a discovery cohort of dose outliers: patients with high (>90th percentile, n = 55) or low (<10th percentile, n = 53) warfarin dose requirements (after accounting for known genetic and nongenetic variables). One CALU variant, rs339097, was associated with high doses (P = 0.01). We validated this variant as a predictor of higher warfarin doses in two replication cohorts: (i) 496 patients of mixed ethnicity and (ii) 194 African-American patients. The G allele of rs339097 (the allele frequency was 0.14 in African Americans and 0.002 in Caucasians) was associated with the requirement for a 14.5% (SD +/- 7%) higher therapeutic dose (P = 0.03) in the first replication cohort and a higher-than-predicted dose in the second replication cohort (allele frequency 0.14, one-sided P = 0.03). CALU rs339097 A>G is associated with higher warfarin dose requirements, independent of known genetic and nongenetic predictors of warfarin dose in African Americans.

Integration of genetic, clinical, and INR data to refine warfarin dosing.

Well-characterized genes that affect warfarin metabolism (cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C9) and sensitivity (vitamin K epoxide reductase complex 1 (VKORC1)) explain one-third of the variability in therapeutic dose before the international normalized ratio (INR) is measured. To determine genotypic relevance after INR becomes available, we derived clinical and pharmacogenetic refinement algorithms on the basis of INR values (on day 4 or 5 of therapy), clinical factors, and genotype. After adjusting for INR, CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes remained significant predictors (P < 0.001) of warfarin dose. The clinical algorithm had an R(2) of 48% (median absolute error (MAE): 7.0 mg/week) and the pharmacogenetic algorithm had an R(2) of 63% (MAE: 5.5 mg/week) in the derivation set (N = 969). In independent validation sets, the R(2) was 26-43% with the clinical algorithm and 42-58% when genotype was added (P = 0.002). After several days of therapy, a pharmacogenetic algorithm estimates the therapeutic warfarin dose more accurately than one using clinical factors and INR response alone.