A quality by design approach for longitudinal quality attributes.

The concept of quality by design (QbD) as published in ICH-Q8 is currently one of the most recurrent topics in the pharmaceutical literature. This guideline recommends the use of information and prior knowledge gathered during pharmaceutical development studies to provide a scientific rationale for the manufacturing process of a product and provide guarantee of future quality. This poses several challenges from a statistical standpoint and requires a shift in paradigm from traditional statistical practices. First, to provide "assurance of quality" of future lots implies the need to make predictions regarding the quality given past evidence and data. Second, the quality attributes described in the Q8 guidelines are not always a set of unique, independent measurements. In many cases, these criteria are complicated longitudinal data with successive acceptance criteria over a defined period of time. A common example is a dissolution profile for a modified or extended-release solid dosage form that must fall within acceptance limits at several time points. A Bayesian approach for longitudinal data obtained in various conditions of a design of experiment is provided to elegantly address the ICH-Q8 recommendation to provide assurance of quality and derive a scientifically sound design space.

A Bayesian approach for evaluating equivalence over multiple groups, and comparison with frequentist tost.

Manufacturing and testing of pharmaceutical products frequently occur in multiple facilities within a company's network. It is of interest to demonstrate equivalence among the alternative testing/manufacturing facilities to ensure product consistency and quality regardless of the facility where it was manufactured/tested. In the Frequentist framework, equivalence testing is well established when comparing two labs or manufacturing facilities; however, when considering more than two labs or production sites, the Frequentist approach may not always offer appropriate or interpretable estimates for demonstrating equivalence among all of them simultaneously. This paper demonstrates the utility of Bayesian methods to the equivalence assessment of multiple groups means, with a comparison against traditional Frequentist methods. We conclude that a Bayesian strategy is very useful for addressing the problem of multi-group equivalence. While it is not our intention to argue that Bayesian methods should always replace Frequentist ones, we show that among the advantages of a Bayesian analysis is that it provides a more nuanced understanding of the degree of similarity among sites than the hypothesis testing underpinning the Frequentist approach.

Impact of an HPV6/11/16/18 L1 virus-like particle vaccine on progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in seropositive women with HPV16/18 infection.

The impact of a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine on development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2-3 or adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2-3/AIS) in women with ongoing HPV16 or 18 infections prevaccination is reported. Seventeen thousand six-hundred and twenty-two women aged 16-26 were enrolled in 1 of 2 randomized, placebo-controlled, efficacy trials (Protocols 013 and 015). Vaccine or placebo was given at day 1, month 2 and 6. Women were tested for HPV6/11/16/18 DNA and antibodies at day 1. We focus on the subset of women who were seropositive and DNA positive to HPV16 or HPV18 prevaccination. Incidence is expressed as the number of women with an endpoint per 100 person-years-at-risk. In total, 419 vaccine and 446 placebo recipients were both seropositive and DNA positive to HPV16 or HPV18 prevaccination and had at least one follow-up visit. In Protocol 013, the incidence of HPV16/18-related CIN2-3/AIS among these women was 10.9 in the vaccine arm and 7.0 in the placebo arm (vaccine efficacy = -54.9; 95% CI: -181.7, 13.0). In Protocol 015, the incidence of HPV16/18-related CIN2-3/AIS was 5.5 in the vaccine arm and 6.2 in the placebo arm (vaccine efficacy = 12.2%; 95% CI: -29.8, 40.9). These data suggest HPV vaccination neither reduces nor enhances progression to HPV16/18-related high grade cervical lesions, and cervical cytology screening and corresponding management should continue as per local recommendations. Ultimately, population-based surveillance of vaccinated individuals beyond these clinical trials will be required to further address questions regarding the impact of vaccination in women exposed to vaccine HPV types before vaccination.

Safety and persistent immunogenicity of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16, 18 L1 virus-like particle vaccine in preadolescents and adolescents: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Administration of a quadrivalent HPV-6/ 1/16/18 vaccine to 16- to 26-year-old women was highly effective in preventing HPV-6/ 1/16/18-related cervical/vulvar/vaginal precancerous lesions and genital warts. As the risk of acquiring HPV significantly rises after sexual debut, HPV vaccines should have the greatest benefit in sexually naive adolescents. We evaluated the tolerability and immunogenicity of quadrivalent vaccine in males and females 9 to 15 years of age through 18 months postenrollment. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind trial, 1781 sexually naive children were assigned (2:1) to quadrivalent HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine or saline placebo administered at day 1 and months 2 and 6. Serum neutralizing anti-HPV-6/11/16/18 responses were summarized as geometric mean titers (GMTs) and seroconversion rates. Primary analyses were done per-protocol (subjects received 3 doses, had no major protocol violations and were HPV type-specific seronegative at day 1). Adverse experiences were collected by diary card. RESULTS: At month 7, seroconversion rates were > or =99.5% for the 4 vaccine-HPV-types. GMTs and seroconversion rates in boys were noninferior to those in girls (P < 0.001). At month 18, > or =91.5% of vaccine recipients were seropositive, regardless of gender. A higher proportion of vaccine recipients (75.3%) than placebo recipients (50.0%) reported one or more injection-site adverse experiences following any vaccination. Rates of fever were similar between vaccination groups. No serious vaccine-related adverse experiences were reported. CONCLUSIONS: In 9- to 15-year-old adolescents, the quadrivalent vaccine was generally well tolerated and induced persistent anti-HPV serologic responses in the majority of subjects for at least 12 months following completion of a three-dose regimen. The vaccine durability supports universal HPV vaccination programs in adolescents to reduce the burden of clinical HPV disease, particularly cervical cancer and precancers.

Using proportion of similar response to evaluate correlates of protection for vaccine efficacy.

A question of interest in many vaccine clinical development programmes is whether vaccine-induced serum antibody level can be used as a correlate of vaccine efficacy; that is, whether serum antibody levels induced by a candidate vaccine can reliably predict the risk of breakthrough disease. Traditionally, analyses to answer this question have been based on modelling the incidence of breakthrough disease as a function of antibody level, among vaccinated subjects in clinical trials. The Proportion of Similar Response (PSR) method will be described and explored, and compared to the Receive Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve as a graphical tool and the area under the ROC (AUROC) as a summary measure in the context of evaluating correlates of protection. A way to use PSR analysis as complementary to Youden's index as a simple and elegant method to determine the discriminatory ability of a test and to set an optimal threshold value will be presented. In addition, the relationships among PSR and other measures of overlap and discrimination will be described. An example based on a clinical trial from a development programme for a vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) will be presented.

M-M-R(®)II manufactured using recombinant human albumin (rHA) and M-M-R(®)II manufactured using human serum albumin (HSA) exhibit similar safety and immunogenicity profiles when administered as a 2-dose regimen to healthy children.

Prior to 2006, M-M-R(®)II (measles, mumps, and rubella virus vaccine live) was manufactured using human serum albumin (HSA) and each dose of the vaccine contained a relatively small amount (≤0.3mg) of HSA. Because of specific regulatory requirements and limited suppliers of HSA acceptable for human use, there was a need to replace HSA with recombinant human albumin (rHA) to mitigate any potential risk to the availability of M-M-R(®)II. Two different formulations of M-M-R(®)II manufactured using either rHA or HSA were clinically evaluated for safety and immunogenicity when administered as a 2-dose regimen to healthy children 12-18 months and 3-4 years of age. Adverse events, including those indicative of a possible hypersensitivity reaction, were collected for 42 days after each dose. Antibodies to measles, mumps, and rubella were measured before and approximately 6 weeks after dose 1. Antibodies to rHA were measured before and approximately 6 weeks after dose 1 and dose 2. Antibody seroconversion rates to measles, mumps, and rubella were 97.0%, 99.5%, and 99.7%, respectively, for recipients of M-M-R(®)II with rHA and 97.2%, 97.9%, and 99.6%, respectively, for recipients of M-M-R(®)II with HSA, and geometric mean titers to all 3 vaccine viral antigens were comparable between the 2 vaccination groups. The proportions of subjects who reported adverse events, including those suggestive of hypersensitivity reactions, after each dose of study vaccine were comparable between the 2 vaccination groups. No subject had detectable antibodies to rHA immediately prior to or following receipt of either the first or second dose of study vaccine. Given the comparable immunogenicity and safety profiles of both formulations, rHA is an acceptable replacement for HSA in the manufacture of M-M-R(®)II.

Impact of human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine on all HPV-associated genital diseases in young women.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the prophylactic vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16, and 18 (HPV6/11/16/18) on all HPV-associated genital disease was investigated in a population that approximates sexually naive women in that they were "negative to 14 HPV types" and in a mixed population of HPV-exposed and -unexposed women (intention-to-treat group). METHODS: This analysis studied 17 622 women aged 15-26 years who were enrolled in one of two randomized, placebo-controlled, efficacy trials for the HPV6/11/16/18 vaccine (first patient on December 28, 2001, and studies completed July 31, 2007). Vaccine or placebo was given at day 1, month 2, and month 6. All women underwent cervicovaginal sampling and Papanicolaou (Pap) testing at day 1 and every 6-12 months thereafter. Outcomes were any cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; any external anogenital and vaginal lesions; Pap test abnormalities; and procedures such as colposcopy and definitive therapy. Absolute rates are expressed as women with endpoint per 100 person-years at risk. RESULTS: The average follow-up was 3.6 years (maximum of 4.9 years). In the population that was negative to 14 HPV types, vaccination was up to 100% effective in reducing the risk of HPV16/18-related high-grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal lesions and of HPV6/11-related genital warts. In the intention-to-treat group, vaccination also statistically significantly reduced the risk of any high-grade cervical lesions (19.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 1.43, rate placebo = 1.76, difference = 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.13 to 0.54), vulvar and vaginal lesions (50.7% reduction; rate vaccine = 0.10, rate placebo = 0.20, difference = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.16), genital warts (62.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 0.44, rate placebo = 1.17, difference = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.58 to 0.87), Pap abnormalities (11.3% reduction; rate vaccine = 10.36, rate placebo = 11.68, difference = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.74 to 1.90), and cervical definitive therapy (23.0% reduction; rate vaccine = 1.97, rate placebo = 2.56, difference = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.83), irrespective of causal HPV type. CONCLUSIONS: High-coverage HPV vaccination programs among adolescents and young women may result in a rapid reduction of genital warts, cervical cytological abnormalities, and diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In the longer term, substantial reductions in the rates of cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers may follow.

The impact of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV; types 6, 11, 16, and 18) L1 virus-like particle vaccine on infection and disease due to oncogenic nonvaccine HPV types in sexually active women aged 16-26 years.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the impact of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine on infection and cervical disease related to 10 nonvaccine HPV types (31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, and 59) associated with >20% of cervical cancers. The population evaluated included HPV-naive women and women with preexisting HPV infection and/or HPV-related disease at enrollment. METHODS: Phase 3 efficacy studies enrolled 17,622 women aged 16-26 years. Subjects underwent cervicovaginal sampling and Pap testing on day 1 and then at 6-12-month intervals for up to 4 years. HPV typing was performed on samples from enrollment and follow-up visits, including samples obtained for diagnosis or treatment of HPV-related disease. All subjects who received 1 dose and returned for follow-up were included. RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the rate of HPV-31/33/45/52/58 infection by 17.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.1% to 28.7%) and of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1-3 or adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) by 18.8% (95% CI, 7.4% to 28.9%). Vaccination also reduced the rate of HPV-31/58/59-related CIN1-3/AIS by 26.0% (95% CI, 6.7% to 41.4%), 28.1% (95% CI, 5.3% to 45.6%), and 37.6% (95% CI, 6.0% to 59.1%), respectively. Although a modest reduction in HPV-31/33/45/52/58-related CIN2 or worse was observed, the estimated reduction was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: These cross-protection results complement the vaccine's prophylactic efficacy against disease associated with HPV-6, -11, -16, and -18. Long-term monitoring of vaccinated populations are needed to fully ascertain the population-based impact and public health significance of these findings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT00092521 , NCT00092534 , and NCT00092482.

The impact of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV; types 6, 11, 16, and 18) L1 virus-like particle vaccine on infection and disease due to oncogenic nonvaccine HPV types in generally HPV-naive women aged 16-26 years.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine reduces the risk of HPV-6/11/16/18-related cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1-3 or adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). Here, its impact on CIN1-3/AIS associated with nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types was evaluated. METHODS: We enrolled 17,622 women aged 16-26 years. All underwent cervicovaginal sampling and Pap testing at regular intervals for up to 4 years. HPV genotyping was performed for biopsy samples, and histological diagnoses were determined by a pathology panel. Analyses were conducted among subjects who were negative for 14 HPV types on day 1. Prespecified analyses included infection of 6 months' duration and CIN1-3/AIS due to the 2 and 5 most common HPV types in cervical cancer after HPV types 16 and 18, as well as all tested nonvaccine types. RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the incidence of HPV-31/45 infection by 40.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.9% to 59.0%) and of CIN1-3/AIS by 43.6% (95% CI, 12.9% to 64.1%), respectively. The reduction in HPV-31/33/45/52/58 infection and CIN1-3/AIS was 25.0% (95% CI, 5.0% to 40.9%) and 29.2% (95% CI, 8.3% to 45.5%), respectively. Efficacy for CIN2-3/AIS associated with the 10 nonvaccine HPV types was 32.5% (95% CI, 6.0% to 51.9%). Reductions were most notable for HPV-31. CONCLUSIONS: HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine reduced the risk of CIN2-3/AIS associated with nonvaccine types responsible for approximately 20% of cervical cancers. The clinical benefit of cross-protection is not expected to be fully additive to the efficacy already observed against HPV-6/11/16/18-related disease, because women may have >1 CIN lesion, each associated with a different HPV type. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT00092521 , NCT00092534 , and NCT00092482.

HPV antibody levels and clinical efficacy following administration of a prophylactic quadrivalent HPV vaccine.

The efficacy of the quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is thought to be mediated by humoral immunity. We evaluated the correlation between quadrivalent HPV vaccine-induced serum anti-HPV responses and efficacy. 17,622 women were vaccinated at day 1, and months 2 and 6. At day 1 and at 6-12 months intervals for up to 48 months, subjects underwent Papanicolaou and genital HPV testing. No immune correlate of protection could be found due to low number of cases. Although 40% of vaccine subjects were anti-HPV 18 seronegative at end-of-study, efficacy against HPV 18-related disease remained high (98.4%; 95% CI: 90.5-100.0) despite high attack rates in the placebo group. These results suggest vaccine-induced protection via immune memory, or lower than detectable HPV 18 antibody titers.

Induction of immune memory following administration of a prophylactic quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6/11/16/18 L1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The duration of protection afforded by vaccines represents a critical test of their utility as public health interventions. Some vaccines induce long-term immunity, while others require booster doses. Vaccines that induce long-term protection are usually characterized by the generation of immune memory. Recent trials of a quadrivalent (types 6, 11, 16, 18) human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine have demonstrated high efficacy through 5 years of follow-up. We evaluated the extent to which the vaccine is able to generate HPV type-specific immune memory. METHODS: A total of 552, 16-23-year-old women were enrolled in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study. At enrollment, subjects were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive three-dose regimens of quadrivalent HPV vaccine or placebo with 3 years' follow-up. A subset of 241 subjects (n=114 in the quadrivalent HPV vaccine group and n=127 in the placebo group) underwent 2 further years of follow-up. All extension subjects received quadrivalent HPV vaccine at month 60 to examine the extent of immune memory in response to the primary vaccination series. RESULTS: Serum anti-HPV levels declined post-vaccination, but reached a plateau at month 24 that remained stable through month 60. Administration of a challenge dose of vaccine induced a classic anamnestic response, with anti-HPV levels 1 week post-challenge reaching levels observed 1 month following the completion of the three-dose primary series. At 1 month post-challenge, anti-HPV responses were higher than those observed 1-month post-dose 3. DISCUSSION: A three-dose regimen of quadrivalent HPV vaccine induces high efficacy and stable anti-HPV levels for at least 5 years. Vaccination also induces robust immune memory. These findings suggest that the efficacy of this vaccine will be long lasting.

Comparison of the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a prophylactic quadrivalent human papillomavirus (types 6, 11, 16, and 18) L1 virus-like particle vaccine in male and female adolescents and young adult women.

OBJECTIVE: Prophylactic vaccination of 16- to 23-year-old females with a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (types 6, 11, 16, 18) L1 virus-like particle vaccine has been shown to prevent type-specific human papillomavirus infection and associated clinical disease. We conducted a noninferiority immunogenicity study to bridge the efficacy findings in young women to preadolescent and adolescent girls and boys, who represent a primary target for human papillomavirus vaccination. METHODS: We enrolled 506 girls and 510 boys (10-15 years of age) and 513 females (16-23 years of age). Participants were vaccinated on day 1, at month 2, and at month 6, and serology testing was performed on day 1 and at months 3 and 7 on blinded samples. Neutralizing antibody concentrations were determined using type-specific immunoassays and summarized as geometric mean titers and seroconversion rates. Vaccine tolerability also was assessed. RESULTS: By month 7, seroconversion rates were > or = 99% for all 4 human papillomavirus types in each group. By month 7, compared with women, anti-human papilloma virus geometric mean titers in girls or boys were noninferior and were 1.7- to 2.7-fold higher. Most (> 97%) injection-site adverse events were mild to moderate in intensity. Significantly more boys (13.8%) and girls (12.8%) than women (7.3%) reported fevers > or = 37.8 degrees C within 5 days of vaccination. Most (96.4%) fevers were mild (< 39 degrees C). CONCLUSIONS: Noninferior immunogenic responses to all 4 human papillomavirus types in the quadrivalent vaccine permit the bridging of efficacy data that were generated in young women to girls. The results in boys lend support for the implementation of gender-neutral human papillomavirus vaccination programs. This vaccine generally was well tolerated.

Dose-ranging studies of the safety and immunogenicity of human papillomavirus Type 11 and Type 16 virus-like particle candidate vaccines in young healthy women.

Two candidate vaccines to prevent infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) Types 11 and 16 were studied in similar double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-escalation trials. L1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines were made from recombinant L1 capsid protein of HPV11 or HPV16. Participants received 10, 20, 50, or 100 microg of HPV11 L1 VLPs, 10, 40, or 80 microg of HPV16 L1 VLPs, or placebo at Months 0, 2, and 6. Serum geometric mean antibody levels at Month 7 were 258, 644, 647, and 1112 milli-Merck units (mMU)/ml for the 10, 20, 50, and 100 microg doses of the HPV11 L1 VLP vaccine, respectively, and 479, 808, and 732 mMU/ml for the 10, 40, and 80 microg doses of the HPV16 L1 VLP vaccine, respectively. Antibody to HPV11 and 16 was still present at Month 36 in 96.8 and 93.5% of vaccinees, respectively. Both vaccines were well tolerated and were associated with only mild to moderate injection-site reactions.