Human immunodeficiency virus infection in health care workers. A method for estimating individual occupational risk.

Physicians and other health care workers are concerned about their occupational risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus infection. We have developed an approach that can help health care workers estimate their cumulative risk of infection with human immunodeficiency virus. Illustrations are used to develop a score that reflects an individual's occupational exposures and social behavior. This score is then translated into the probability that the worker is infected.

Streptococcal diagnostic testing and antibiotics prescribed for pediatric tonsillopharyngitis.

BACKGROUND: This study examined a 1-year cross-sectional sample of Kentucky Medicaid claims for the use of streptococcal diagnostic tests for pediatric tonsillopharyngitis and the empiric use of antibiotics. METHODS: Subjects were individuals older than 3 and younger than 18 years old seen in an ambulatory setting for tonsillopharyngitis; 3478 individuals accounted for the 5067 separate outpatient and emergency room encounters for pediatric tonsillopharyngitis; 849 encounters coded as streptococcal sore throat were also examined. RESULTS: Diagnostic tests for group A streptococcal tonsillopharyngitis were performed in only 22% (n = 1130) of the tonsillopharyngitis encounters and 36% (n = 306) of the streptococcal sore throat encounters. Urban physicians were more likely than rural physicians to use a diagnostic test (P = 0.0001). Emergency room encounters and outpatient encounters were not significantly different in the likelihood of having a diagnostic test (P = 0.16). In encounters for tonsillopharyngitis antibiotics were prescribed in 72% of the total encounters and in 73% of the encounters without a diagnostic streptococcal test. In encounters for streptococcal sore throat, antibiotics were prescribed for 68% of the total encounters and 69% of the encounters without a diagnostic streptococcal test. CONCLUSIONS: Current practices in the Kentucky Medicaid program do not follow the American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines for streptococcal tonsillopharyngitis.

Aortic aneurysm in a 74-year-old man with coronary disease and obstructive lung disease: is double jeopardy enough?

A previous decision analysis examined a patient with severe CAD, diminished ventricular function, and an abdominal aortic aneurysm and also concluded that CABG followed by aneurysm repair was optimal. This patient, who had well-preserved cardiac function but severely compromised pulmonary status, stood to gain less from CABG than would a patient with more severe coronary disease, thus accounting for the "close-call" between the CABG-AAA and AAA only strategies. Nevertheless, the analysis did emphasize the benefit of aneurysm repair, whether done alone or after CABG. The analysis also highlighted the significant risk of aneurysm rupture the patient is exposed to while recovering from CABG surgery. The operative mortality risks of the two procedures are similar; thus, the patient's total operative risk is approximately doubled if he undergoes both procedures rather than aneurysm repair alone. The key question raised by the analysis is whether this double jeopardy is more than compensated by the degree to which prior CABG reduces both short-term cardiac risk at subsequent aneurysm repair and long-term cardiac mortality. For this patient, who had good cardiac function, the gains appeared sufficient to offset the interval risk of aneurysm rupture and the additional risk associated with a surgical procedures. THE REAL WORLD The patient indeed underwent and tolerated CABG, although he had a stormy prolonged postoperative course due to pulmonary failure. After discharge from the hospital, he declined readmission for repair of the aneurysm. We did not model that possibility, clearly an inadequacy in our tree. Some six months later, the patient was still alive and was, reluctantly, readmitted for aneurysmorrhaphy. At that time, however, his pulmonary function had deteriorated and both the anesthesiologist and the pulmonary consultant stated unequivocally that further surgery was now impossible. In retrospect, the expected utility of CABG without aneurysm repair (thus providing only a decrease in the long-term mortality risk from his CAD) would have been 1.95 (DEALE) or 2.06 (Markov) years. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, even if long-term cardiac risk were completely eliminated by CABG, immediate aneurysm repair would have been a better approach had the patient's physicians known he would be likely to refuse or not be a candidate for the second operation. In summary, although the patient's comorbidities did indeed place him at significant operative risk for either aneurysmorrhaphy alone or two sequential procedures, the benefits to be gained were shown to far outweigh the risks when compared with expectant observation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Population-based time preferences for future health outcomes.

CONTEXT: Time preference (how preference for an outcome changes depending on when the outcome occurs) affects clinical decisions, but little is known about determinants of time preferences in clinical settings. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether information about mean population time preferences for specific health states can be easily assessed, whether mean time preferences are constant across different diseases, and whether under certain circumstances substantial fractions of the patient population make choices that are consistent with a negative time preference. DESIGN: Self-administered survey. SETTING: Family physician waiting rooms in four states. PATIENTS: A convenience sample of 169 adults. INTERVENTION: Subjects were presented five clinical vignettes. For each vignette the subject chose between interventions maximizing a present and a future health outcome. The options for individual vignettes varied among the patients so that a distribution of responses was obtained across the population of patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Logistic regression was used to estimate the mean preference for each vignette, which was translated into an implicit discount rate for this group of patients. RESULTS: There were marked differences in time preferences for future health outcomes based on the five vignettes, ranging from a negative to a high positive (116%) discount rate. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides empirical evidence that time preferences for future health outcomes may vary substantially among disease conditions. This is likely because the vignettes evoked different rationales for time preferences. Time preference is a critical element in patient decision making and cost-effectiveness research, and more work is necessary to improve our understanding of patient preferences for future health outcomes.

Decision analysis: a review.

Decision analysis has been used increasingly to investigate complex medical decision problems and technologies. Four steps comprise the conduct of a decision analysis: construction of a decision tree, assignment of values to probabilities and outcomes, averaging out and folding back, and sensitivity analysis. Personal computer software is available to facilitate these tasks. Relevant outcome measures, such as the declining exponential approximation of life expectancy, have improved analysts' ability to express results in clinically pertinent terms. Decision analysis is a useful tool for exploring the uncertain and often ambiguous clinical problems facing primary care providers.

A method for projecting ambulatory visits to a family practice center.

Family practice model centers serve multiple teaching, research, and patient care roles. Accurate projection of patient care demand should promote a center's efficiency. Clinic visit forecasts were performed for a university based family practice center using an exponential time series analytic model. The model provided reliable clinic projections for a one-year time horizon. The projections proved useful for administrative, educational, and academic governance purposes. Time series analysis is a useful and relatively easily implemented tool which can facilitate family practice center administration and support.

An overview of clinical policies with implications for clinical practice, medical education, and research.

Clinical policies, also known as practice parameters or practice guidelines, are gaining notoriety out of a desire to control escalating medical costs, lessen wide practice variations, and improve quality of care. The clinical policies are supposed to influence medical decision making by summarizing scientific data about a clinical problem in a format that is easily understood by patient and physician alike. Developing an evidence-based policy involves: a clearly defined clinical problem, a comprehensive literature review, a summary table of the data (known as an evidence table), a presentation of this data as outcome possibilities from alternative decisions (in the form of a balance sheet), and creation of clinical recommendations that incorporate both financial costs and patient preferences. Well-developed policies can be used by family physicians as guides in areas of clinical uncertainty and by medical educators as up-to-date literature syntheses for teaching critical appraisal and for outlining approaches to common problems. Explicit policy formulation also highlights the shortcomings of existing literature and can suggest more appropriate future research. The future of the clinical policy movement rests on its ability to reduce costs of care and improve patient outcomes. Explicit clinical policy formulation incurs significant development and implementation costs and the evidence on which many policies are based is lacking. Nevertheless, clinical policies in some form are likely to play an increasing role in medical care.

Test Characteristics. How good is that test?

Clinical information is used to develop differential diagnoses and narrow the possibilities. The history and physical examination motivate our initial diagnostic impression. Clinical laboratory results and further diagnostic maneuvers are used to confirm or refute our initial impressions. These tests and procedures are not perfect; they sometimes yield false results, which taken alone, might lead to misguided therapeutic interventions. Concepts of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value provide the tools needed to integrate new information with initial diagnostic impressions. The concept of overall accuracy provides a quantitative estimate of how well a particular maneuver will perform. ROC curve analysis provides yet another quantitative and visual assessment of a test's performance. Additionally, the statistical tools described by Hanley and McNeil provide objective, quantitative means for comparing the various tests from which the clinician must select. Electronic spreadsheets and dedicated computer software provide relatively user friendly methods for engaging these techniques. Although individual clinicians might not choose to perform such analyses themselves, the discussion in this article should help the busy physician answer the question, "How good is that test?"

A glossary of medical decision-making terms.

Many of the terms used in medical decision making are foreign to clinicians. This problem creates a barrier that can prevent physicians from acquiring these new clinical tools. This glossary contains definitions of the most common terms as well as examples of their usage by using Down syndrome as the illustrative condition.

A pocket calculator program for using Pozen's formula.

Pozen's formula has been shown to improve diagnostic accuracy in patients with acute chest pain. This paper describes a short program for the HP-41CV calculator which reliably calculates acute ischemic heart disease probabilities using Pozen's formula.

An evaluation of new agents in the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Several new medications for the treatment of hyperglycemia for patients with type 2 diabetes have been introduced in the past several years. Integration of these medications into practice has increased the complexity of therapeutic decisions. Appropriate use of these medications increases the likelihood that patients will achieve recommended treatment goals. Many new combinations of oral medications or oral medications and insulin injections are possible. This paper reviews the pharmacology and clinical effectiveness of medications for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and provides a framework to assist with treatment decisions.

Controlling blood glucose levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. An evidence-based policy statement by the American Academy of Family Physicians and American Diabetes Association.

OBJECTIVE: To review evidence about the benefit of intensive glycemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes and to develop practice recommendations. PARTICIPANTS: A 9-member panel composed of family physicians, general internists, endocrinologists, and a practice guidelines methodologist was assembled by the American Academy of Family Physicians, the American Diabetes Association, and the American College of Physicians. EVIDENCE: Admissible evidence included published randomized controlled trials and observational studies regarding the effects of glycemic control on microvascular and macrovascular complications and on adverse effects. We followed systematic search and data abstraction procedures. Greater weight was given to clinical trials and to evidence about health outcomes. CONSENSUS PROCESS: Interpretations of evidence and approval of documents were finalized by unanimous vote, with recommendations linked to evidence and not expert opinion. The full report was prepared by the chair and 2 panel members, representing each of the 3 organizations. The initial draft underwent external review by 14 diabetologists and family physicians and changes consistent with the evidence were incorporated. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence demonstrates that the risk of microvascular and neuropathic complications is reduced by lowering glucose concentrations. Whether glycemic control affects macrovascular outcomes is less clear. The potential benefits of glycemic control must be balanced against factors that either preempt benefits (eg, limited life expectancy, comorbid disease) or increase risk (eg, severe hypoglycemia). The magnitude of benefit is a function of individual clinical variables (eg, baseline glycated hemoglobin level, presence of preexisting microvascular disease). Appropriate targets for treatment should be determined by considering these factors, patients' risk profiles, and personal preferences.

Group G streptococcal bacteremia in a chronically constipated adolescent.

A chronically constipated, mentally retarded male adolescent was admitted on two occasions with gastroenteritis symptoms and stool positive for group G Streptococcus. The first episode was also associated with group G streptococcal bacteremia. This case of group G streptococcal disease is unique in that the primary symptoms were those of gastroenteritis. In the context of chronic constipation in colonic distention, the case appears to support the hypothesis of Watsky et al that group G streptococcal bacteremia is promoted by processes which breach anatomic mucosal or epithelial infection barriers.

Public awareness of prostate cancer and the prostate-specific antigen test.

Prostate cancer and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing have been the focus of significant media attention. This study examines the public's knowledge of prostate cancer, knowledge of the PSA test, and among men, the use of the test. The data are from the 1993 Kentucky Health Survey, an annual probability-based statewide telephone survey of adult (18 years of age and older) Kentucky residents (n = 661). Although 92% of the sample reported hearing of prostate cancer, the respondents were basically uninformed about the outcomes of prostate cancer. Men 50 years of age and older were no more informed than was the rest of the sample about prostate cancer or PSA testing. However, 94% of the men who had the test recommended by their physician had undergone the test. These findings indicate that adults remain poorly informed about prostate cancer and possible case-finding strategies. If the American Cancer Society's (ACS) early detection recommendations are to succeed, attention should focus on improving the public's awareness of currently available methods for early detection of prostate cancer.

Guidelines on the care of diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy and foot disease.

Diabetes mellitus is a common disease frequently managed by family physicians. Because of its high prevalence and associated comorbidity, diabetes mellitus has received a great deal of attention from several specialty organizations. The American Diabetes Association, the American Board of Family Practice and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have published specific practice guidelines and recommendations for the care of diabetic patients. These recommendations include annual comprehensive foot examinations, yearly ophthalmologic screening for retinopathy, and urinalysis for microalbuminuria. The use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors is advocated for the majority of diabetic patients with proteinuria or hypertension. Based on recent evidence, improved glycemic control is also increasingly advocated. Compliance with practice guidelines by primary care physicians has historically been poor. Mechanisms such as the use of patient problem lists and diabetic flow sheets can serve as reminders to physicians and can facilitate closer adherence to practice guidelines.