Pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk acute variceal bleeding. An updated and revised individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) showed that compared with drugs+endoscopy, the placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission (pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: p-TIPS) increases the survival of high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B+ active bleeding and Child-Pugh C<14 points) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. However, the previous IPD-MA was not a two-stage meta-analysis, did not consider the potential risk of selection bias of observational studies, and did not include the most recent randomized clinical trial. We performed an updated and revised IPD-MA to reassess the efficacy of p-TIPS, addressing all previous issues. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included all studies from the previous IPD-MA and searched for other possible eligible publications until September 2022. We performed a two-stage IPD-MA of data from 8 studies (4 randomized clinical trials and 4 observational). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those patients dying up to the first 72 hours after admission in the Drugs+Endoscopy arms of the 4 observational studies. The primary end point was the effects of p-TIPS versus Drugs+Endoscopy on 1-year survival.We identified 1389 patients (342 p-TIPS and 1047 Drugs+Endoscopy). The two-stage IPD-MA showed that p-TIPS significantly reduced the mortality in the overall population (HR=0·43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.60, p <0.001. This effect was observed in both subgroups of patients with Child-Pugh. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the survival benefit of p-TIPS. CONCLUSIONS: The updated two-stage IPD-MA confirms the significant survival advantage of p-TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. As a result, we recommend p-TIPS as the preferred first-choice treatment for these patients.

Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Characterizing the risk interplay between alcohol intake and body mass index on cirrhosis morbidity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m2 . A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years' follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Carvedilol reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis in a competing-risk meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-selective ß-blockers can prevent decompensation of cirrhosis warrants clarification. Carvedilol might be particularly effective since its intrinsic vasodilatory activity may ameliorate hepatic vascular resistance, a major mechanism of portal hypertension in early cirrhosis. We assessed whether carvedilol may prevent decompensation and improve survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). METHODS: By systematic review we identified randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carvedilol vs. control therapy (no-active treatment or endoscopic variceal ligation [EVL]) in patients with cirrhosis and CSPH without previous bleeding. We performed a competing-risk time-to-event meta-analysis using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Only compensated patients were included. Primary outcomes were prevention of decompensation (liver transplantation and death were competing events) and death (liver transplantation was a competing event). Models were adjusted using propensity scores for baseline covariates with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. RESULTS: Among 125 full-text studies evaluated, 4 RCTs were eligible. The 4 provided IPD and were included, comprising 352 patients with compensated cirrhosis, 181 treated with carvedilol and 171 controls (79 received EVL and 92 placebo). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Standardized differences were <10% by IPTW. The risk of developing decompensation of cirrhosis was lower with carvedilol than in controls (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.506; 95% CI 0.289-0.887; p = 0.017; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.880), mainly due to a reduced risk of ascites (SHR 0.491; 95% CI 0.247-0.974; p = 0.042; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.384). The risk of death was also lower with carvedilol (SHR 0.417; 95% CI 0.194-0.896; p = 0.025; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.989). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term carvedilol therapy reduced decompensation of cirrhosis and significantly improved survival in compensated patients with CSPH. This suggests that screening patients with compensated cirrhosis for CSPH to enable the prompt initiation of carvedilol could improve outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019144786. LAY SUMMARY: The transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis is associated with markedly reduced life expectancy. Therefore, preventing decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis would be associated with greatly improved patient outcomes. There has been controversy regarding the use of non-selective ß-blockers (portal pressure-lowering medications) in patients with cirrhosis and elevated portal blood pressure (portal hypertension). Herein, using a competing-risk meta-analysis to optimize sample size and properly investigate cirrhosis as a multistate disease and outcomes as time-dependent events, we show that carvedilol (a non-selective ß-blocker) is associated with a reduced risk of decompensating events and improved survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Population-level estimates of hepatitis C reinfection post scale-up of direct-acting antivirals among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland has led to a reduction in the prevalence of viraemia in this population. However, the extent of reinfection among those treated with DAAs remains uncertain. We estimated HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland by treatment setting, pre- and post-introduction of DAAs, and the potential number of undiagnosed reinfections resulting from incomplete follow-up testing. METHODS: Through linkage of national clinical and laboratory HCV data, a retrospective cohort of PWID who commenced treatment between 2000-2018 and achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) were followed up for reinfection to December 2019. Reinfection was defined as a positive HCV antigen or RNA test. RESULTS: Of 5,686 SVRs among 5,592 PWID, 4,126 (73%) had an HCV RNA or antigen test post-SVR. Of those retested, we identified 361 reinfections (3.9/100 person-years [PY]). The reinfection rate increased from 1.5/100 PY among PWID treated in 2000-2009 to 8.8/100 PY in 2017-2018. The highest reinfection rates were observed among those treated in prison (14.3/100 PY) and community settings (9.5/100 PY). Among those treated in the DAA era (2015-2018), 68% were tested within the first year post-SVR but only 30% in the second year; while 169 reinfections were diagnosed in follow-up, an estimated 200 reinfections (54% of the estimated total) had gone undetected. CONCLUSIONS: HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland have risen alongside the scale-up of DAAs and broadened access to treatment for those at highest risk, through delivery in community drug services. Promotion of HCV testing post-SVR among PWID is essential to ensure those reinfected are identified and retreated promptly. LAY SUMMARY: Increased rates of hepatitis C reinfection in Scotland were observed following the rapid scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments among people who inject drugs. This demonstrates that community-based treatment pathways are reaching high-risk groups, regarded vital in efforts to eliminate the virus. However, we estimate that less than half of reinfections have been detected in the DAA era because of inadequate levels of retesting beyond the first year following successful treatment. Sustained efforts that involve high coverage of harm reduction measures and high uptake of annual testing are required to ensure prompt diagnosis and treatment of those reinfected if the goals of elimination are to be met.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Guidelines on the management of ascites in cirrhosis.

The British Society of Gastroenterology in collaboration with British Association for the Study of the Liver has prepared this document. The aim of this guideline is to review and summarise the evidence that guides clinical diagnosis and management of ascites in patients with cirrhosis. Substantial advances have been made in this area since the publication of the last guideline in 2007. These guidelines are based on a comprehensive literature search and comprise systematic reviews in the key areas, including the diagnostic tests, diuretic use, therapeutic paracentesis, use of albumin, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and beta-blockers in patients with ascites. Where recent systematic reviews and meta-analysis are available, these have been updated with additional studies. In addition, the results of prospective and retrospective studies, evidence obtained from expert committee reports and, in some instances, reports from case series have been included. Where possible, judgement has been made on the quality of information used to generate the guidelines and the specific recommendations have been made according to the 'Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE)' system. These guidelines are intended to inform practising clinicians, and it is expected that these guidelines will be revised in 3 years' time.

Genome-Wide Association Study for Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis Identifies Risk Loci in MARC1 and HNRNPUL1.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known about genetic factors that affect development of alcohol-related cirrhosis. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of samples from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) to identify polymorphisms associated with risk of alcohol-related liver disease. METHODS: We performed a GWAS of 35,839 participants in the UKB with high intake of alcohol against markers of hepatic fibrosis (FIB-4, APRI, and Forns index scores) and hepatocellular injury (levels of aminotransferases). Loci identified in the discovery analysis were tested for their association with alcohol-related cirrhosis in 3 separate European cohorts (phase 1 validation cohort; n=2545). Variants associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the validation at a false discovery rate of less than 20% were then directly genotyped in 2 additional European validation cohorts (phase 2 validation, n=2068). RESULTS: In the GWAS of the discovery cohort, we identified 50 independent risk loci with genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Nine of these loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the phase 1 validation cohort; 6 of these 9 loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in phase 2 validation cohort, at a false discovery rate below 5%. The loci included variants in the mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 gene (MARC1) and the heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein U like 1 gene (HNRNPUL1). After we adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and type-2 diabetes in the phase 2 validation cohort, the minor A allele of MARC1:rs2642438 was associated with reduced risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76; P=.0027); conversely, the minor C allele of HNRNPUL1:rs15052 was associated with an increased risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; P=.020). CONCLUSIONS: In a GWAS of samples from the UKB, we identified and validated (in 5 European cohorts) single-nucleotide polymorphisms that affect risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis in opposite directions: the minor A allele in MARC1:rs2642438 decreases risk, whereas the minor C allele in HNRNPUL1:rs15052 increases risk.

Uptake of interferon-free DAA therapy among HCV-infected decompensated cirrhosis patients and evidence for decreased mortality.

Interferon-free DAA therapies have recently been licensed for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Our aim was to describe factors associated with uptake of IFN-free DAAs in DC patients and to compare mortality risk and hospital admission rates between pre-DAA and DAA eras. This observational study used record-linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and national inpatient hospitalization and mortality registers. For the DAA uptake analysis, the study population (n = 297) was restricted to patients alive on 1 November 2014, and Cox regression was used to estimate uptake associated with various covariates. For the Cox regression of mortality comparing pre-DAA and DAA eras, the study population (n = 624) comprised those diagnosed with DC in 2005-2018; follow-up was censored at two years. DAA uptake was 63% overall and was significantly higher for treatment-experienced patients (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.64, 95% CI:1.14-2.34), genotype 1 vs. other genotypes (aHR = 1.55. 95% CI:1.15-2.10) and lower for persons diagnosed with DC pre-2014 (0.47, 95% CI:0.33-0.68) and in Greater Glasgow (0.64, 95% CI:0.47-0.88). The intention-to-treat SVR rate was 89% (95% CI:83-93%). All-cause and liver-related mortality risk were significantly reduced among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era (November 2014-December 2018) compared with the pre-DAA era (2005-October 2014) (aHRs of 0.68, 95% CI:0.49-0.93; 0.69, 95% CI:0.50-0.95, respectively); in contrast, hospital admission rates were higher in the DAA era (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.04-1.26). The majority of HCV-infected DC patients engaged with specialist services can be treated with IFN-free DAAs. Improved survival among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era supports the beneficial impact of IFN-free therapies among those with advanced liver disease.

All coffee types decrease the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in chronic liver disease: a UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in low to middle-income countries with high disease burden and limited treatment availability. Coffee consumption has been linked with lower rates of CLD, but little is known about the effects of different coffee types, which vary in chemical composition. This study aimed to investigate associations of coffee consumption, including decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee, with chronic liver disease outcomes. METHODS: A total of 494,585 UK Biobank participants with known coffee consumption and electronic linkage to hospital, death and cancer records were included in this study. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of incident CLD, incident CLD or steatosis, incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from CLD according to coffee consumption of any type as well as for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually. RESULTS: Among 384,818 coffee drinkers and 109,767 non-coffee drinkers, there were 3600 cases of CLD, 5439 cases of CLD or steatosis, 184 cases of HCC and 301 deaths from CLD during a median follow-up of 10.7 years. Compared to non-coffee drinkers, coffee drinkers had lower adjusted HRs of CLD (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.72-0.86), CLD or steatosis (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.86), death from CLD (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.67) and HCC (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.54-1.19). The associations for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually were similar to all types combined. CONCLUSION: The finding that all types of coffee are protective against CLD is significant given the increasing incidence of CLD worldwide and the potential of coffee as an intervention to prevent CLD onset or progression.

Population impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment on new presentations of hepatitis C-related decompensated cirrhosis: a national record-linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: Population-based studies demonstrating the clinical impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are lacking. We examined the impact of the introduction of DAAs on HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC) through analysis of population-based data from Scotland. DESIGN: Through analysis of national surveillance data (involving linkage of HCV diagnosis and clinical databases to hospital and deaths registers), we determined i) the scale-up in the number of patients treated and achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), and ii) the change in the trend of new presentations with HCV-related DC, with the introduction of DAAs. RESULTS: Approximately 11 000 patients had been treated in Scotland over the 8-year period 2010/11 to 2017/18. The scale-up in the number of patients achieving SVR between the pre-DAA and DAA eras was 2.3-fold overall and 5.9-fold among those with compensated cirrhosis (the group at immediate risk of developing DC). In the pre-DAA era, the annual number of HCV-related DC presentations increased 4.6-fold between 2000 (30) and 2014 (142). In the DAA era, presentations decreased by 51% to 69 in 2018 (and by 67% among those with chronic infection at presentation), representing a significant change in trend (rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). With the introduction of DAAs, an estimated 330 DC cases had been averted during 2015-18. CONCLUSIONS: National scale-up in interferon-free DAA treatment is associated with the rapid downturn in presentations of HCV-related DC at the population-level. Major progress in averting HCV-related DC in the short-term is feasible, and thus other countries should strive to achieve the same.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt in the management of portal hypertension.

These guidelines on transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPSS) in the management of portal hypertension have been commissioned by the Clinical Services and Standards Committee (CSSC) of the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) under the auspices of the Liver Section of the BSG. The guidelines are new and have been produced in collaboration with the British Society of Interventional Radiology (BSIR) and British Association of the Study of the Liver (BASL). The guidelines development group comprises elected members of the BSG Liver Section, representation from BASL, a nursing representative and two patient representatives. The quality of evidence and grading of recommendations was appraised using the GRADE system. These guidelines are aimed at healthcare professionals considering referring a patient for a TIPSS. They comprise the following subheadings: indications; patient selection; procedural details; complications; and research agenda. They are not designed to address: the management of the underlying liver disease; the role of TIPSS in children; or complex technical and procedural aspects of TIPSS.

aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. METHODS: A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). RESULTS: We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. CONCLUSIONS: This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. LAY SUMMARY: In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

Coffee Consumption and Kidney Function: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with limited strategies for prevention and treatment. Coffee is a complex mixture of chemicals, and consumption has been associated with mostly beneficial health outcomes. This work aimed to determine the impact of coffee consumption on kidney function. STUDY DESIGN: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) and Mendelian randomization. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: UK Biobank baseline data were used for a coffee consumption GWAS and included 227,666 participants. CKDGen Consortium data were used for kidney outcomes and included 133,814 participants (12,385 cases of CKD) of mostly European ancestry across various countries. EXPOSURE: Coffee consumption. OUTCOMES: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CKD GFR categories 3 to 5 (G3-G5; eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2), and albuminuria. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: GWAS to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption in UK Biobank and use of those SNPs in Mendelian randomization analyses of coffee consumption and kidney outcomes in CKDGen. RESULTS: 2,126 SNPs were associated with coffee consumption (P<5×10-8), 25 of which were independent and available in CKDGen. Drinking an extra cup of coffee per day conferred a protective effect against CKD G3-G5 (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.98; P=0.03) and albuminuria (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.97; P=0.02). An extra cup was also associated with higher eGFR (ß=0.022; P=1.6×10-6) after removal of 3 SNPs responsible for significant heterogeneity (Cochran Q P = 3.5×10-15). LIMITATIONS: Assays used to measure creatinine and albumin varied between studies that contributed data and a sex-specific definition was used for albuminuria rather than KDIGO guideline recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of a beneficial effect of coffee on kidney function. Given widespread coffee consumption and limited interventions to prevent CKD incidence and progression, this could have significant implications for global public health in view of the increasing burden of CKD worldwide.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral. AIMS: To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified. RESULTS: Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

The contribution of alcohol use disorder to decompensated cirrhosis among people with hepatitis C: An international study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has led to ambitious targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. However, in the context of alcohol use disorder the ability of DAAs to achieve these targets may be compromised. The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution of alcohol use disorder to HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis in three settings. METHODS: HCV notifications from British Columbia, Canada; New South Wales, Australia, and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively). Alcohol use disorder was defined as non-liver-related hospitalisation due to alcohol use. Age-standardised decompensated cirrhosis incidence rates were plotted, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and alcohol use disorder-associated population attributable fractions (PAFs) were computed. RESULTS: Among 58,487, 84,529, and 31,924 people with HCV in British Columbia, New South Wales, and Scotland, 2,689 (4.6%), 3,169 (3.7%), and 1,375 (4.3%) had a decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis, and 28%, 32%, and 50% of those with decompensated cirrhosis had an alcohol use disorder, respectively. Age-standardised decompensated cirrhosis incidence rates were considerably higher in people with alcohol use disorder in New South Wales and Scotland. Decompensated cirrhosis was independently associated with alcohol use disorder in British Columbia (aHR 1.92; 95% CI 1.76-2.10), New South Wales (aHR 3.68; 95% CI 3.38-4.00) and Scotland (aHR 3.88; 95% CI 3.42-4.40). The PAFs of decompensated cirrhosis-related to alcohol use disorder were 13%, 25%, and 40% in British Columbia, New South Wales and Scotland, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use disorder was a major contributor to HCV liver disease burden in all settings, more distinctly in Scotland. The extent to which alcohol use would compromise the individual and population-level benefits of DAA therapy needs to be closely monitored. Countries, where appropriate, must develop strategies combining promotion of DAA treatment uptake with management of alcohol use disorders, if World Health Organization 2030 HCV mortality reduction targets are going to be achieved. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver disease has been rising among people with hepatitis C globally. The recent introduction of highly effective medicines against hepatitis C (called direct-acting antivirals or DAAs) has brought renewed optimism to the sector. DAA scale-up could eliminate hepatitis C as a public health threat in the coming decades. However, our findings show heavy alcohol use is a major risk factor for liver disease among people with hepatitis C. If continued, heavy alcohol use could compromise the benefits of new antiviral treatments at the individual- and population-level. To tackle hepatitis C as a public health threat, where needed, DAA therapy should be combined with management of heavy alcohol use.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C and sustained viral response: Role of the treatment regimen.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Previous studies have reported a high frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with advanced liver disease, after receipt of interferon (IFN)-free therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our objective was to verify and account for this phenomenon using data from the Scottish HCV clinical database. METHODS: We identified HCC-naïve individuals with liver cirrhosis receiving a course of antiviral therapy in Scotland from 1997-2016 resulting in a sustained virologic response. Patients were followed-up from their treatment start date to the earliest of: date of death, date of HCC occurrence, or 31 January 2017. We used Cox regression to compare the risk of HCC occurrence according to treatment regimen after adjusting for relevant co-factors (including: demographic factors; baseline liver disease stage; comorbidities/health behaviours, virology, and previous treatment experience). HCC occurrence was ascertained through both the HCV clinical database and medical chart review. For our main analysis, treatment regimen was defined as IFN-free vs. IFN-containing. RESULTS: A total of 857 patients met the study criteria, of whom 31.7% received an IFN-free regimen. Individuals receiving IFN-free therapy were more likely to be: older; of white ethnicity, Child-Turcotte-Pugh B/C vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh A; thrombocytopenic; non-genotype 3; and treatment experienced. HCC occurrence was observed in 46 individuals during follow-up. In univariate analysis, IFN-free therapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCC (HR: 2.48; p = 0.021). However, after multivariate adjustment for baseline factors, no significant risk attributable to IFN-free therapy persisted (aHR: 1.15, p = 0.744). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the higher incidence of HCC following sustained virologic response with IFN-free therapy relates to baseline risk factors/patient selection, and not the use of IFN-free therapy per se. LAY SUMMARY: We examined the risk of liver cancer in 857 patients with cirrhosis in Scotland who received hepatitis C antiviral therapy and achieved a cure. We compared the risk of first-time liver cancer in patients treated with the newest interferon-free regimens, to patients treated with interferon. After accounting for the different characteristics of these two treatment groups, we found no evidence that interferon-free therapy is associated with a higher risk of liver cancer.