Clinical calculator predictive of chemotherapy benefit in stage 1A uterine papillary serous cancers.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the utility of a clinical calculator to predict the benefit of chemotherapy in stage IA uterine papillary serous cancer (UPSC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data were collected from NCDB from years 2010-2014. Based on demographic and surgical characteristics, a clinical score was developed using the random survival forest machine learning algorithm. RESULTS: Of 1,751 patients with stage IA UPSC, 1,012 (58%) received chemotherapy and 739 (42%) did not. Older age (HR 1.06), comorbidities (HR 1.31), larger tumor size (HR 1.27), lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.86), positive peritoneal cytology (HR 2.62), no pelvic lymph node dissection (HR 1.51), and no chemotherapy (HR 2.16) were associated with poorer prognosis. Compared to no chemotherapy, patients who underwent chemotherapy had a 5-year overall survival of 80% vs. 67%. To better delineate those who may derive more benefit from chemotherapy, we designed a clinical calculator capable of dividing patients into low, moderate, and high-risk groups with associated 5-year OS of 86%, 73%, and 53%, respectively. Using the calculator to assess the relative benefit of chemotherapy in each risk group, chemotherapy improved the 5-year OS in the high (42% to 64%; p < 0.001) and moderate risk group (66% to 79%; p < 0.001) but did not benefit the low risk group (84% to 87%; p = 0.29). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest a clinical calculator is useful for counseling and personalizing chemotherapy for stage IA UPSC.

Early initiation of chemotherapy following complete resection of advanced ovarian cancer associated with improved survival: NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group study.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether time from surgery to initiation of chemotherapy impacts survival in advanced ovarian carcinoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a post-trial ad hoc analysis of Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 218, a phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to study the antiangiogenesis agent, bevacizumab, in primary and maintenance therapy for patients with newly diagnosed advanced ovarian carcinoma. Maximum attempt at debulking was an eligibility criterion. Stage III patients, not stage IV, were required to have gross macroscopic or palpable residual disease following surgery. The survival impact of time from surgery to initiation of chemotherapy was studied using Cox regression models and stratified by treatment arm, residual disease and other clinical and pathologic factors. RESULTS: One thousand seven hundred eighteen assessable patients were randomized (stage III (n = 1237); stage IV (n = 477), including those with complete resection (stage IV only, n = 81), low-volume residual (≤1 cm, n = 701), and suboptimal (>1 cm, n = 932). On multivariate analysis, time to chemotherapy initiation was predictive of overall survival (P < 0.001), with the complete resection group (i.e. stage IV) encountering an increased risk of death when time to initiation of chemotherapy exceeded 25 days (95% confidence interval 16.6-49.9 days). CONCLUSION: Survival for women with advanced ovarian cancer may be adversely affected when initiation of chemotherapy occurs >25 days following surgery. Our analysis applies to stage IV only as women with stage III who underwent complete resection were not eligible for this trial. These results, however, are consistent with Gompertzian first-order kinetics where patients with microscopic residual are most vulnerable. CLINICAL TRIALS IDENTIFIER: NCT00262847.

A prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival in women with recurrent ovarian cancer treated with bevacizumab and chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in women with recurrent ovarian cancer treated with bevacizumab and chemotherapy. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective study was conducted. Potential prognostic variables included age; stage; grade; histology; performance status; residual disease; presence of ascites and/or pleural effusions; number of chemotherapy regimens, treatment-free interval (TFI) prior to bevacizumab administration, and platinum sensitivity. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression. The predictive model was developed into a nomogram to predict five-year OS. RESULTS: 312 women with recurrent ovarian cancer treated with bevacizumab and chemotherapy were identified; median age was 59 (range: 19-85); 86% women had advanced stage (III-IV) disease. The majority had serous histology (74%), high grade cancers (93.5%), and optimal cytoreductions (69.5%). Fifty-one percent of women received greater than two prior chemotherapeutic regimens. TFI (AHR=0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, p=0.022) was the only statistically significant predictor in a multivariate progression-free survival (PFS) analysis. In a multivariate OS analysis, prior number of chemotherapy regimens, TFI, platinum sensitivity, and presence of ascites were significant. A nomogram to predict five-year OS was constructed and internally validated (bootstrap-corrected concordance index=0.737). CONCLUSION: Our multivariate model identified prior number of chemotherapy regimens, TFI, platinum sensitivity, and the presence of ascites as prognostic variables for OS in women with recurrent ovarian cancer treated with bevacizumab combined with chemotherapy. Our nomogram to predict five-year OS may be used to identify women who may benefit from bevacizumab and chemotherapy, but further validation is needed.