Shrinking body size and climate warming: Many freshwater salmonids do not follow the rule.

Declining body size is believed to be a universal response to climate warming and has been documented in numerous studies of marine and anadromous fishes. The Salmonidae are a family of coldwater fishes considered to be among the most sensitive species to climate warming; however, whether the shrinking body size response holds true for freshwater salmonids has yet to be examined at a broad spatial scale. We compiled observations of individual fish lengths from long-term surveys across the Northern Hemisphere for 12 species of freshwater salmonids and used linear mixed models to test for spatial and temporal trends in body size (fish length) spanning recent decades. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant increase in length overall but with high variability in trends among populations and species. More than two-thirds of the populations we examined increased in length over time. Secondary regressions revealed larger-bodied populations are experiencing greater increases in length than smaller-bodied populations. Mean water temperature was weakly predictive of changes in body length but overall minimal influences of environmental variables suggest that it is difficult to predict an organism's response to changing temperatures by solely looking at climatic factors. Our results suggest that declining body size is not universal, and the response of fishes to climate change may be largely influenced by local factors. It is important to know that we cannot assume the effects of climate change are predictable and negative at a large spatial scale.

Capacity shortfalls hinder the performance of marine protected areas globally.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being used globally to conserve marine resources. However, whether many MPAs are being effectively and equitably managed, and how MPA management influences substantive outcomes remain unknown. We developed a global database of management and fish population data (433 and 218 MPAs, respectively) to assess: MPA management processes; the effects of MPAs on fish populations; and relationships between management processes and ecological effects. Here we report that many MPAs failed to meet thresholds for effective and equitable management processes, with widespread shortfalls in staff and financial resources. Although 71% of MPAs positively influenced fish populations, these conservation impacts were highly variable. Staff and budget capacity were the strongest predictors of conservation impact: MPAs with adequate staff capacity had ecological effects 2.9 times greater than MPAs with inadequate capacity. Thus, continued global expansion of MPAs without adequate investment in human and financial capacity is likely to lead to sub-optimal conservation outcomes.

Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status.

Marine fish stocks are an important part of the world food system and are particularly important for many of the poorest people of the world. Most existing analyses suggest overfishing is increasing, and there is widespread concern that fish stocks are decreasing throughout most of the world. We assembled trends in abundance and harvest rate of stocks that are scientifically assessed, constituting half of the reported global marine fish catch. For these stocks, on average, abundance is increasing and is at proposed target levels. Compared with regions that are intensively managed, regions with less-developed fisheries management have, on average, 3-fold greater harvest rates and half the abundance as assessed stocks. Available evidence suggests that the regions without assessments of abundance have little fisheries management, and stocks are in poor shape. Increased application of area-appropriate fisheries science recommendations and management tools are still needed for sustaining fisheries in places where they are lacking.

Global hotspots of coherent marine fishery catches.

Although different fisheries can be tightly linked to each other by human and ecosystem processes, they are often managed independently. Synchronous fluctuations among fish populations or fishery catches can destabilize ecosystems and economies, respectively, but the degree of synchrony around the world remains unclear. We analyzed 1,092 marine fisheries catch time series over 60 yr to test for the presence of coherence, a form of synchrony that allows for phase-lagged relationships. We found that nearly every fishery was coherent with at least one other fishery catch time series globally and that coherence was strongest in the northeast Atlantic, western central Pacific, and eastern Indian Ocean. Analysis of fish biomass and fishing mortality time series from these hotspots revealed that coherence in biomass or fishing mortality were both possible, though biomass coherence was more common. Most of these relationships were synchronous with no time lags, and across catches in all regions, synchrony was a better predictor of regional catch portfolio effects than catch diversity. Regions with higher synchrony had lower stability in aggregate fishery catches, which can have negative consequences for food security and economic wealth.

Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators.

Forage fish-small, low trophic level, pelagic fish such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies-are important prey species in marine ecosystems and also support large commercial fisheries. In many parts of the world, forage fish fisheries are managed using precautionary principles that target catch limits below the maximum sustainable yield. However, there are increasing calls to further limit forage fish catch to safeguard their fish, seabird, and marine mammal predators. The effectiveness of these extra-precautionary regulations, which assume that increasing prey abundance increases predator productivity, are under debate. In this study, we used prey-linked population models to measure the influence of forage fish abundance on the population growth rates of 45 marine predator populations representing 32 fish, seabird, and mammal species from 5 regions around the world. We used simulated data to confirm the ability of the statistical model to accurately detect prey influences under varying levels of influence strength and process variability. Our results indicate that predator productivity was rarely influenced by the abundance of their forage fish prey. Only 6 predator populations (13% of the total) were positively influenced by increasing prey abundance and the model exhibited high power to detect prey influences when they existed. These results suggest that additional limitation of forage fish harvest to levels well below sustainable yields would rarely result in detectable increases in marine predator populations.

Evaluación de los Efectos de la Abundancia de Peces Forrajeros sobre los Depredadores Marinos Resumen Los peces forrajeros-peces pequeños, pelágicos y de bajo nivel trófico como el arenque, las sardinas y las anchoas-son especies presa importantes en los ecosistemas marinos y además mantienen a grandes pesquerías comerciales. En muchas partes del mundo, las pesquerías de los peces forrajeros son manejadas mediante el uso de principios precautorios que se enfocan en los límites de captura por debajo de la producción máxima sostenible. Sin embargo, cada vez hay más peticiones para incrementar la limitación de la captura de peces forrajeros para salvaguardar a las especies depredadoras de peces, aves y mamíferos marinos asociadas a estos peces. La efectividad de estas regulaciones, que están basadas en el supuesto de que al incrementar la abundancia de presas incrementa la productividad de los depredadores, está en debate. Usamos modelos poblacionales vinculados a la presa para medir la influencia de la abundancia de los peces forrajeros sobre las tasas de crecimiento poblacional de 45 poblaciones de depredadores marinos (28 peces, 10 aves marinas y 7 mamíferos) en cinco regiones alrededor del mundo. Usamos datos simulados para confirmar la habilidad del modelo estadístico para detectar certeramente las influencias de la presa bajo niveles variantes de fuerza de influencia y de proceso de variabilidad. La productividad del depredador rara vez afectó a la abundancia de su presa forrajera. Sólo seis poblaciones de depredadores (13% del total) estuvieron afectadas positivamente por la creciente abundancia de la presa y el modelo exhibió un poder alto para detectar las influencias de la presa cuando estuvieron presentes. Estos resultados sugieren que las limitaciones sobre la pesca de peces forrajeros a niveles muy por debajo de la productividad sostenible pocas veces resultarían en incrementos detectables en las poblaciones de depredadores marinos.

Hierarchical analysis of taxonomic variation in intraspecific competition across fish species.

The nature and intensity of intraspecific competition can vary greatly among taxa, yet similarities in these interactions can lead to similar population dynamics among related organisms. Variation along the spectrum of intraspecific competition, with contest and scramble competition as endpoints, leads to vastly different responses to population density. Here we investigated the diversity of intraspecific competition among fish species, predicting that functional forms of density-dependent reproduction would be conserved in related taxa. Using a hierarchical model that links stock-recruitment parameters among populations, species, and orders, we found that the strength of overcompensation, and therefore the type of intraspecific competition, is tightly clustered within taxonomic groupings, as species within an order share similar degrees of compensation. Specifically, species within the orders Salmoniformes and Pleuronectiformes exhibited density dependence indicative of scramble competition (overcompensation) while the orders Clupeiformes, Gadiformes, Perciformes, and Scorpaeniformes exhibited dynamics consistent with contest competition (compensation). Maximum potential recruitment also varied among orders, but with less clustering across species. We also tested whether stock-recruitment parameters correlated with maximum body length among species, but found no strong relationship. Our results suggest that much of the variation in the form of density-dependent reproduction among fish species may be predicted taxonomically due to evolved life history traits and reproductive behaviors.

Frequency and intensity of productivity regime shifts in marine fish stocks.

Fish stocks fluctuate both in abundance and productivity (net population increase), and there are many examples demonstrating that productivity increased or decreased due to changes in abundance caused by fishing and, alternatively, where productivity shifted between low and high regimes, entirely unrelated to abundance. Although shifts in productivity regimes have been described, their frequency and intensity have not previously been assessed. We use a database of trends in harvest and abundance of 230 fish stocks to evaluate the proportion of fish stocks in which productivity is primarily related to abundance vs. those that appear to manifest regimes of high or low productivity. We evaluated the statistical support for four hypotheses: (i) the abundance hypothesis, where production is always related to population abundance; (ii) the regimes hypothesis, where production shifts irregularly between regimes that are unrelated to abundance; (iii) the mixed hypothesis, where even though production is related to population abundance, there are irregular changes in this relationship; and (iv) the random hypothesis, where production is random from year to year. We found that the abundance hypothesis best explains 18.3% of stocks, the regimes hypothesis 38.6%, the mixed hypothesis 30.5%, and the random hypothesis 12.6%. Fisheries management agencies need to recognize that irregular changes in productivity are common and that harvest regulation and management targets may need to be adjusted whenever productivity changes.

Fuzzy cognitive mapping in support of integrated ecosystem assessments: Developing a shared conceptual model among stakeholders.

Ecosystem-based approaches, including integrated ecosystem assessments, are a popular methodology being used to holistically address management issues in social-ecological systems worldwide. In this study we utilized fuzzy logic cognitive mapping to develop conceptual models of a complex estuarine system among four stakeholder groups. The average number of categories in an individual map was not significantly different among groups, and there were no significant differences between the groups in the average complexity or density indices of the individual maps. When ordered by their complexity scores, eight categories contributed to the top four rankings of the stakeholder groups, with six of the categories shared by at least half of the groups. While non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) analysis displayed a high degree of overlap between the individual models across groups, there was also diversity within each stakeholder group. These findings suggest that while all of the stakeholders interviewed perceive the subject ecosystem as a complex series of social and ecological interconnections, there are a core set of components that are present in most of the groups' models that are crucial in managing the system towards some desired outcome. However, the variability in the connections between these core components and the rest of the categories influences the exact nature of these outcomes. Understanding the reasons behind these differences will be critical to developing a shared conceptual model that will be acceptable to all stakeholder groups and can serve as the basis for an integrated ecosystem assessment.

Unexpected patterns of fisheries collapse in the world's oceans.

Understanding which species are most vulnerable to human impacts is a prerequisite for designing effective conservation strategies. Surveys of terrestrial species have suggested that large-bodied species and top predators are the most at risk, and it is commonly assumed that such patterns also apply in the ocean. However, there has been no global test of this hypothesis in the sea. We analyzed two fisheries datasets (stock assessments and landings) to determine the life-history traits of species that have suffered dramatic population collapses. Contrary to expectations, our data suggest that up to twice as many fisheries for small, low trophic-level species have collapsed compared with those for large predators. These patterns contrast with those on land, suggesting fundamental differences in the ways that industrial fisheries and land conversion affect natural communities. Even temporary collapses of small, low trophic-level fishes can have ecosystem-wide impacts by reducing food supply to larger fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.

The ocean's disappearing giantsKings of Their Own Ocean: Tuna, Obsession, and the Future of Our Seas Karen Pinchin Dutton, 2023. 320 pp.

A journalist documents the struggle to catch, tag, and restore populations of Atlantic bluefin tuna.

Quantifying fish range shifts across poorly defined management boundaries.

Management regimes of marine resources that rely on spatial boundaries might be poorly adapted to climate change shifts in species distributions. This is of specific concern for the management of fish stocks that cross management jurisdictions, known as shared stocks. Transitioning to dynamic rules in spatial management has been suggested as a solution for mismatches between species distributions and the spatial boundaries. However, in many cases spatial boundaries are not clearly drawn, hampering such transitions. Here, we use black sea bass (Centropristis striata), summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) as case studies to explore different approaches to designing spatial regulatory units to facilitate the adaptation of fisheries management to shifting distributions of shared stocks. First, we determine the yearly distribution of each stock within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone from 1951 to 2019 during Fall and Spring sampling seasons. Second, we explore two approaches for drawing regulatory units based on state waters and historical landings. Finally, we estimate each state's proportion of the stock's distribution and compare historical and recent values. We show that the distribution of all three stocks has changed relative to the years used to determine the current quota allocation across states, with an overall gain for central-northern states at the expense of the southernmost states. In terms of the distribution of allocation, we find that, while seasonal differences exist, the biggest differences in the proportion of the stock spatial distribution attributed to each state come from the method for designing regulatory units. Here, we show that the method used to define allocation units can have meaningful impacts on resulting adaptive policy. As climate change-driven conflicts in fishing resource allocation are expected to increase and deepen around the world, we provide a replicable approach to make an informed and transparent choice to support data-driven decision-making.

Defining trade-offs among conservation, profitability, and food security in the California current bottom-trawl fishery.

Although it is recognized that marine wild-capture fisheries are an important source of food for much of the world, the cost of sustainable capture fisheries to species diversity is uncertain, and it is often questioned whether industrial fisheries can be managed sustainably. We evaluated the trade-off among sustainable food production, profitability, and conservation objectives in the groundfish bottom-trawl fishery off the U.S. West Coast, where depletion (i.e., reduction in abundance) of six rockfish species (Sebastes) is of particular concern. Trade-offs are inherent in this multispecies fishery because there is limited capacity to target species individually. From population models and catch of 34 stocks of bottom fish, we calculated the relation between harvest rate, long-term yield (i.e., total weight of fish caught), profit, and depletion of each species. In our models, annual ecosystem-wide yield from all 34 stocks was maximized with an overall 5.4% harvest rate, but profit was maximized at a 2.8% harvest rate. When we reduced harvest rates to the level (2.2% harvest rate) at which no stocks collapsed (<10% of unfished levels), biomass harvested was 76% of the maximum sustainable yield and profit 89% of maximum. A harvest rate under which no stocks fell below the biomass that produced maximum sustainable yield (1% harvest rate), resulted in 45% of potential yield and 67% of potential profit. Major reductions in catch in the late 1990s led to increase in the biomass of the most depleted stocks, but this rebuilding resulted in the loss of >30% of total sustainable yield, whereas yield lost from stock depletion was 3% of total sustainable yield. There are clear conservation benefits to lower harvest rates, but avoiding overfishing of all stocks in a multispecies fishery carries a substantial cost in terms of lost yield and profit.

The changing story of seafoodThe Blue Revolution Nicholas P. Sullivan Island Press, 2022. 272 pp.

New technology, new markets, and better policy are improving fisheries and aquaculture.

Early impacts of the largest Amazonian hydropower project on fish communities.

Hydropower is a threat to freshwater fishes. Despite a recent boom in dam construction, few studies have assessed their impact on mega-diverse tropical rivers. Using a before-after study design, we investigated the early impacts of the Belo Monte hydroelectric complex, the third-largest hydropower project in the world, on fishes of the Xingu River, a major clear-water tributary of the lower Amazon. We explored impacts across different river sectors (upstream, reservoir, reduced flow sector, and downstream) and spatial scales (individual sectors vs. all sectors combined) using joint species distribution models and different facets of diversity (taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic). After 5 years of the Belo Monte operation, species richness declined ~12% in lentic and ~16% in lotic environments. Changes in abundance were of less magnitude (<4%). Effects were particularly negative for species of the families Serrasalmidae (mainly pacus), Anostomidae (headstanders), Auchenipteridae, and Pimelodidae (catfishes), whereas no taxonomic group consistently increased in richness or abundance. The reservoir and downstream sectors were the most impacted, with declines of ~24-29% in fish species richness, overall reductions in fish body size and trophic level, and a change in average body shape. Richness and abundance also declined in the reduced river flow, and changes in size, shape, and position of fins were observed. Relatively minor changes were found in the upstream sector. Variation in functional and phylogenetic diversity following river impoundment was subtle; however, across sectors, we found a reduction in functional divergence, indicating a decline in the abundance of species located near the extremities of community functional space. This may be the first sign of an environmental filtering process reducing functional diversity in the region. Greater changes in flow and habitats are expected as hydropower operations ramp up, and continued monitoring is warranted to understand the full scope and magnitude of ecological impacts.

Contrasting global trends in marine fishery status obtained from catches and from stock assessments.

There are differences in perception of the status of fisheries around the world that may partly stem from how data on trends in catches over time have been used. On the basis of catch trends, it has been suggested that about 70% of all stocks are overexploited due to unsustainable harvesting and 30% of all stocks have collapsed to <10% of unfished levels. Catch trends also suggest that over time an increasing number of stocks will be overexploited and collapsed. We evaluated how use of catch data affects assessment of fisheries stock status. We analyzed simulated random catch data with no trend. We examined well-studied stocks classified as collapsed on the basis of catch data to determine whether these stocks actually were collapsed. We also used stock assessments to compare stock status derived from catch data with status derived from biomass data. Status of stocks derived from catch trends was almost identical to what one would expect if catches were randomly generated with no trend. Most classifications of collapse assigned on the basis of catch data were due to taxonomic reclassification, regulatory changes in fisheries, and market changes. In our comparison of biomass data with catch trends, catch trends overestimated the percentage of overexploited and collapsed stocks. Although our biomass data were primarily from industrial fisheries in developed countries, the status of these stocks estimated from catch data was similar to the status of stocks in the rest of the world estimated from catch data. We conclude that at present 28-33% of all stocks are overexploited and 7-13% of all stocks are collapsed. Additionally, the proportion of fished stocks that are overexploited or collapsed has been fairly stable in recent years.

Hierarchical genetic structure and implications for conservation of the world's largest salmonid, Hucho taimen.

Population genetic analyses can evaluate how evolutionary processes shape diversity and inform conservation and management of imperiled species. Taimen (Hucho taimen), the world's largest freshwater salmonid, is threatened, endangered, or extirpated across much of its range due to anthropogenic activity including overfishing and habitat degradation. We generated genetic data using high throughput sequencing of reduced representation libraries for taimen from multiple drainages in Mongolia and Russia. Nucleotide diversity estimates were within the range documented in other salmonids, suggesting moderate diversity despite widespread population declines. Similar to other recent studies, our analyses revealed pronounced differentiation among the Arctic (Selenge) and Pacific (Amur and Tugur) drainages, suggesting historical isolation among these systems. However, we found evidence for finer-scale structure within the Pacific drainages, including unexpected differentiation between tributaries and the mainstem of the Tugur River. Differentiation across the Amur and Tugur basins together with coalescent-based demographic modeling suggests the ancestors of Tugur tributary taimen likely diverged in the eastern Amur basin, prior to eventual colonization of the Tugur basin. Our results suggest the potential for differentiation of taimen at different geographic scales, and suggest more thorough geographic and genomic sampling may be needed to inform conservation and management of this iconic salmonid.

Adaptation and resilience of commercial fishers in the Northeast United States during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Commercial fisheries globally experienced numerous and significant perturbations during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting the livelihoods of millions of fishers worldwide. In the Northeast United States, fishers grappled with low prices and disruptions to export and domestic markets, leaving many tied to the dock, while others found ways to adapt to the changing circumstances brought about by the pandemic. This paper investigates the short-term impacts of the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic (March-June 2020) on commercial fishers in the Northeast U.S. to understand the effects of the pandemic on participation in the fishery and fishers' economic outcomes, using data collected from an online survey of 258 Northeast U.S. commercial fishers. This research also assesses characteristics of those fishers who continued fishing and their adaptive strategies to the changing circumstances. Analysis of survey responses found the majority of fishers continued fishing during the early months of the pandemic, while a significant number had stopped fishing. Nearly all reported a loss of income, largely driven by disruptions of export markets, the loss of restaurant sales, and a resulting decline in seafood prices. Landings data demonstrate that while fishing pressure in 2020 was reduced for some species, it remained on track with previous years for others. Fishers reported engaging in a number of adaptation strategies, including direct sales of seafood, switching species, and supplementing their income with government payments or other sources of income. Many fishers who had stopped fishing indicated plans to return, suggesting refraining from fishing as a short-term adaptation strategy, rather than a plan to permanently stop fishing. Despite economic losses, fishers in the Northeast U.S. demonstrated resilience in the face of the pandemic by continuing to fish and implementing other adaptation strategies rather than switching to other livelihoods.

Response to Comment on "Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production".

Szuwalski argues that varying age structure can affect surplus production and that recruitment is a better metric of productivity. We explain how our null model controlled for age structure and other processes as explanations for the temperature-production relationship. Surplus production includes growth, recruitment, and other processes and provides a more complete description of food production impacts than does recruitment alone.