Histopathology and levels of proteins in plasma associate with survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: The TNM system is used to assess prognosis after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis. Other prognostic factors reported include histopathological assessments of the tumour, tumour mutations and proteins in the blood. As some of these factors are strongly correlated, it is important to evaluate the independent effects they may have on survival. METHODS: Tumour samples from 2162 CRC patients were visually assessed for amount of tumour stroma, severity of lymphocytic infiltrate at the tumour margins and the presence of lymphoid follicles. Somatic mutations in the tumour were assessed for 2134 individuals. Pre-surgical levels of 4963 plasma proteins were measured in 128 individuals. The associations between these features and prognosis were inspected by a Cox Proportional Hazards Model (CPH). RESULTS: Levels of stroma, lymphocytic infiltration and presence of lymphoid follicles all associate with prognosis, along with high tumour mutation burden, high microsatellite instability and TP53 and BRAF mutations. The somatic mutations are correlated with the histopathology and none of the somatic mutations associate with survival in a multivariate analysis. Amount of stroma and lymphocytic infiltration associate with local invasion of tumours. Elevated levels of two plasma proteins, CA-125 and PPP1R1A, associate with a worse prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Tumour stroma and lymphocytic infiltration variables are strongly associated with prognosis of CRC and capture the prognostic effects of tumour mutation status. CA-125 and PPP1R1A may be useful prognostic biomarkers in CRC.

Assessing thyroid cancer risk using polygenic risk scores.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified at least 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) risk. Most of these SNPs are common variants with small to moderate effect sizes. Here we assessed the combined genetic effects of these variants on PTC risk by using summarized GWAS results to build polygenic risk score (PRS) models in three PTC study groups from Ohio (1,544 patients and 1,593 controls), Iceland (723 patients and 129,556 controls), and the United Kingdom (534 patients and 407,945 controls). A PRS based on the 10 established PTC SNPs showed a stronger predictive power compared with the clinical factors model, with a minimum increase of area under the receiver-operating curve of 5.4 percentage points (P ≤ 1.0 × 10-9). Adding an extended PRS based on 592,475 common variants did not significantly improve the prediction power compared with the 10-SNP model, suggesting that most of the remaining undiscovered genetic risk in thyroid cancer is due to rare, moderate- to high-penetrance variants rather than to common low-penetrance variants. Based on the 10-SNP PRS, individuals in the top decile group of PRSs have a close to sevenfold greater risk (95% CI, 5.4-8.8) compared with the bottom decile group. In conclusion, PRSs based on a small number of common germline variants emphasize the importance of heritable low-penetrance markers in PTC.

Increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease among patients treated with rituximab in Iceland from 2001 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Immune-mediated diseases are on the rise after the introduction of powerful immunomodulating drugs. The objective of this study was to determine the population-based incidence rate of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among patients treated with the monoclonal antibody rituximab in Iceland and compare it to the baseline incidence rate of IBD in the general population. METHODS: We identified all patients treated with rituximab in Iceland from 2001 to 2018 through a central medicine database. IBD cases were indexed from medical records and ICD-10 codes and further confirmed by colonoscopy- and pathology reports. An experienced pathologist compared the pathology of IBD cases with matched controls of IBD patients. RESULTS: Lymphomas and related neoplasms were the most frequent indication for treatment with rituximab (n = 367) among the 651 patients included in the analysis. Following treatment, seven patients developed IBD: two cases of Crohn's disease, three with ulcerative colitis, and two with indeterminate IBD. The incidence rate of IBD among rituximab treated patients was 202 cases per 100,000 person-years. Comparing our data to IBD incidence in Iceland, rituximab treated patients have an age-adjusted hazard ratio of 6.6 for developing IBD. The risk did not correlate with dose or treatment duration. Prior diagnosis of an autoimmune illness did not increase the risk of IBD in rituximab treated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients on rituximab have a sixfold increased risk of developing IBD compared to the general population. This risk was not affected by the indication for treatment and was not associated with concurrent immune-mediated diseases. Summary This population-based retrospective cohort study included all patients receiving treatment with rituximab between 2001 and 2018 in Iceland and identified a sixfold increased risk of developing IBD when compared to the general population.

Breast cancer survival in Nordic BRCA2 mutation carriers-unconventional association with oestrogen receptor status.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of breast cancer among BRCA2 carriers has not been clearly established. In a previous study from Iceland, positive ER status was a negative prognostic factor. We sought to identify factors that predicted survival after invasive breast cancer in an expanded cohort of BRCA2 carriers. METHODS: We studied 608 women with invasive breast cancer and a pathogenic BRCA2 mutation (variant) from four Nordic countries. Information on prognostic factors and treatment was retrieved from health records and by analysis of archived tissue specimens. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for breast cancer-specific survival using Cox regression. RESULTS: About 77% of cancers were ER-positive, with the highest proportion (83%) in patients under 40 years. ER-positive breast cancers were more likely to be node-positive (59%) than ER-negative cancers (34%) (P < 0.001). The survival analysis included 584 patients. Positive ER status was protective in the first 5 years from diagnosis (multivariate HR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.26-0.93, P = 0.03); thereafter, the effect was adverse (HR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.07-3.39, P = 0.03). The adverse effect of positive ER status was limited to women who did not undergo endocrine treatment (HR = 2.36; 95% CI 1.26-4.44, P = 0.01) and patients with intact ovaries (HR = 1.99; 95% CI 1.11-3.59, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The adverse effect of a positive ER status in BRCA2 carriers with breast cancer may be contingent on exposure to ovarian hormones.

Ashwagandha-induced liver injury: A case series from Iceland and the US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ashwagandha (Withania somnifera) is widely used in Indian Ayurvedic medicine. Several dietary supplements containing ashwagandha are marketed in the US and Europe, but only one case of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) due to ashwagandha has been published. The aim of this case series was to describe the clinical phenotype of suspected ashwagandha-induced liver injury. METHODS: Five cases of liver injury attributed to ashwagandha-containing supplements were identified; three were collected in Iceland during 2017-2018 and two from the Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) in 2016. Other causes for liver injury were excluded. Causality was assessed using the DILIN structured expert opinion causality approach. RESULTS: Among the five patients, three were males; mean age was 43 years (range 21-62). All patients developed jaundice and symptoms such as nausea, lethargy, pruritus and abdominal discomfort after a latency of 2-12 weeks. Liver injury was cholestatic or mixed (R ratios 1.4-3.3). Pruritus and hyperbilirubinaemia were prolonged (5-20 weeks). No patient developed hepatic failure. Liver tests normalized within 1-5 months in four patients. One patient was lost to follow-up. One biopsy was performed, showing acute cholestatic hepatitis. Chemical analysis confirmed ashwagandha in available supplements; no other toxic compounds were identified. No patient was taking potentially hepatotoxic prescription medications, although four were consuming additional supplements, and in one case, rhodiola was a possible causative agent along with ashwagandha. CONCLUSIONS: These cases illustrate the hepatotoxic potential of ashwagandha. Liver injury is typically cholestatic or mixed with severe jaundice and pruritus, but self-limited with liver tests normalizing in 1-5 months.

Clinical characteristics of patients with colorectal cancer with double somatic mismatch repair mutations compared with Lynch syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) with mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR) tumours without MLH1 methylation or germline MMR pathogenic variants (PV) were previously thought to have Lynch syndrome (LS). It is now appreciated that they can have double somatic (DS) MMR PVs. We explored the clinical characteristics between patients with DS tumours and LS in two population-based cohorts. METHODS: We included patients with CRC from Ohio 2013-2016 and Iceland 2000-2009. All had microsatellite instability testing and/or immunohistochemistry (IHC) of MMR proteins, and MLH1 methylation testing when indicated. Germline next-generation sequencing was performed for all with dMMR tumours; tumour sequencing followed for patients with unexplained dMMR. Clinical characteristics of DS patients and patients with LS were compared. RESULTS: Of the 232 and 51 patients with non-methylated dMMR tumours in the Ohio and Iceland cohorts, respectively, 57.8% (n=134) and 45.1% (n=23) had LS, 32.8% (n=76) and 31.4% (n=16) had DS PVs, 6% (n=14) and 9.8% (n=5) were unexplained and 4.3% (n=10) and 13.7% (n=7) had incorrect IHC. Age of diagnosis for DS patients was older than patients with LS (p=3.73×10-4) in the two cohorts. Patients with LS were more likely to meet Amsterdam II criteria (OR=15.81, p=8.47×10-6) and have multiple LS-associated tumours (OR=6.67, p=3.31×10-5). Absence of MLH1/PMS2 was predictive of DS PVs; isolated MSH6 and PMS2 absence was predictive of LS in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with LS are 15× more likely to meet Amsterdam II criteria and >5× more likely to have multiple cancers as compared with those with DS tumours. Furthermore, isolated loss of MSH6 or PMS2 protein predicts LS.

Clonal hematopoiesis, with and without candidate driver mutations, is common in the elderly.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) arises when a substantial proportion of mature blood cells is derived from a single dominant hematopoietic stem cell lineage. Somatic mutations in candidate driver (CD) genes are thought to be responsible for at least some cases of CH. Using whole-genome sequencing of 11 262 Icelanders, we found 1403 cases of CH by using barcodes of mosaic somatic mutations in peripheral blood, whether or not they have a mutation in a CD gene. We find that CH is very common in the elderly, trending toward inevitability. We show that somatic mutations in TET2, DNMT3A, ASXL1, and PPM1D are associated with CH at high significance. However, known CD mutations were evident in only a fraction of CH cases. Nevertheless, the highly prevalent CH we detect associates with increased mortality rates, risk for hematological malignancy, smoking behavior, telomere length, Y-chromosome loss, and other phenotypic characteristics. Modeling suggests some CH cases could arise in the absence of CD mutations as a result of neutral drift acting on a small population of active hematopoietic stem cells. Finally, we find a germline deletion in intron 3 of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that predisposes to CH (rs34002450; P = 7.4 × 10-12; odds ratio, 1.37).

Nonsense mutation in the LGR4 gene is associated with several human diseases and other traits.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) is used as a parameter of osteoporosis. Genome-wide association studies of BMD have hitherto focused on BMD as a quantitative trait, yielding common variants of small effects that contribute to the population diversity in BMD. Here we use BMD as a dichotomous trait, searching for variants that may have a direct effect on the risk of pathologically low BMD rather than on the regulation of BMD in the healthy population. Through whole-genome sequencing of Icelandic individuals, we found a rare nonsense mutation within the leucine-rich-repeat-containing G-protein-coupled receptor 4 (LGR4) gene (c.376C>T) that is strongly associated with low BMD, and with osteoporotic fractures. This mutation leads to termination of LGR4 at position 126 and fully disrupts its function. The c.376C>T mutation is also associated with electrolyte imbalance, late onset of menarche and reduced testosterone levels, as well as an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and biliary tract cancer. Interestingly, the phenotype of carriers of the c.376C>T mutation overlaps that of Lgr4 mutant mice.

Identification of Lynch syndrome risk variants in the Romanian population.

Two familial forms of colorectal cancer (CRC), Lynch syndrome (LS) and familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), are caused by rare mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2) and the genes APC and MUTYH, respectively. No information is available on the presence of high-risk CRC mutations in the Romanian population. We performed whole-genome sequencing of 61 Romanian CRC cases with a family history of cancer and/or early onset of disease, focusing the analysis on candidate variants in the LS and FAP genes. The frequencies of all candidate variants were assessed in a cohort of 688 CRC cases and 4567 controls. Immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 was performed on tumour tissue. We identified 11 candidate variants in 11 cases; six variants in MLH1, one in MSH6, one in PMS2, and three in APC. Combining information on the predicted impact of the variants on the proteins, IHC results and previous reports, we found three novel pathogenic variants (MLH1:p.Lys84ThrfsTer4, MLH1:p.Ala586CysfsTer7, PMS2:p.Arg211ThrfsTer38), and two novel variants that are unlikely to be pathogenic. Also, we confirmed three previously published pathogenic LS variants and suggest to reclassify a previously reported variant of uncertain significance to pathogenic (MLH1:c.1559-1G>C).

Insertion of an SVA-E retrotransposon into the CASP8 gene is associated with protection against prostate cancer.

Transcriptional and splicing anomalies have been observed in intron 8 of the CASP8 gene (encoding procaspase-8) in association with cutaneous basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) and linked to a germline SNP rs700635. Here, we show that the rs700635[C] allele, which is associated with increased risk of BCC and breast cancer, is protective against prostate cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 0.91, P = 1.0 × 10(-6)]. rs700635[C] is also associated with failures to correctly splice out CASP8 intron 8 in breast and prostate tumours and in corresponding normal tissues. Investigation of rs700635[C] carriers revealed that they have a human-specific short interspersed element-variable number of tandem repeat-Alu (SINE-VNTR-Alu), subfamily-E retrotransposon (SVA-E) inserted into CASP8 intron 8. The SVA-E shows evidence of prior activity, because it has transduced some CASP8 sequences during subsequent retrotransposition events. Whole-genome sequence (WGS) data were used to tag the SVA-E with a surrogate SNP rs1035142[T] (r(2) = 0.999), which showed associations with both the splicing anomalies (P = 6.5 × 10(-32)) and with protection against prostate cancer (OR = 0.91, P = 3.8 × 10(-7)).

Incidence, diagnostic, treatment and outcome of patients diagnosed with cancer of the pancreas during 1986-2009: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Limited data exist on the changes in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer and outcomes over the last decades in population-based cohorts. We aimed to compare the incidence of pancreatic cancer, diagnostic, treatment and survival among patients diagnosed over the period 1986-2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective, nationwide, population-based study. All patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in Iceland in two periods, 1986-1997 (P1) and 1998-2009 (P2) were identified through the Icelandic Cancer Registry and relevant clinical information obtained from medical records. RESULTS: A total of 645 patients were identified, 296 in P1 and 349 in P2 (NS). The incidence during P1 was 6.8 per 100,000 inhabitants and 6.2 during P2 (NS). Among biopsy-proven cancers, adenocarcinoma was diagnosed in 89% of the cases in P1 and in P2 in 93% of the cases. Overall 38 (14%) in P1 underwent resection and 22 (7%) in P2 (p < .0004). Patients diagnosed in P2 had longer survival at 6 months (p = .015, log-rank test) and one year (p = .0206) after diagnosis. A total of 4/296 (1.4%) in P1 survived more than 5 years and 3/349 (0.9%) in P2 (NS). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence among patients with pancreatic cancer in Iceland did not show major changes during the last 20 years. Diagnostic approach has changed considerably demonstrating more patients that are not 'resectable'. Survival rate at 6 months and one year has improved over the last two decades whereas the 5-year prognosis has not improved.

Why is colon cancer survival improving by time? A nationwide survival analysis spanning 35 years.

There is limited information present to explain temporal improvements in colon cancer survival. This nationwide study investigates the temporal changes in survival over a 35-year period (1970-2004) in Iceland and uses incidence, mortality, surgery rate, stage distribution, lymph node yield, tumor location and histological type to find explanations for these changes. Patients diagnosed with colon cancer in Iceland 1970-2004 were identified (n = 1962). All histopathology was reassessed. Proportions, age-standardized incidence and mortality, relative, cancer-specific and overall survival and conditional survival were calculated. When comparing first and last diagnostic periods (1970-1978 and 1997-2004), 5-year relative survival improved by 12% for men and 9% for women. At the same time surgery rate increased by 12% and the proportion of stage I increased by 9%. Stage-stratified, improved 5-year relative survival was mainly observed in stages II and III and coincided with higher lymph node yields, proportional reduction of stage II cancers and proportional increase of stage III cancers, indicating stage migration between these stages. Improvement in 1-year survival was mainly observed in stages III and IV. Five-year survival improvement for patients living beyond 1 year was minimum to none. There were no changes in histology that coincided with neither increased incidence nor possibly influencing improved survival. Concluding, as a novel finding, 1-year mortality, which previously has been identified as an important variable in explaining international survival differences, is in this study identified as also being important in explaining temporal improvements in colon cancer survival in Iceland.

Estrogen-progestin use and breast cancer characteristics in lean and overweight postmenopausal women.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer associated with estrogen-progestin (EP) therapy may have more favorable characteristics than cancer in never users, but results are conflicting. It is not well known either whether Body Mass Index (BMI) modifies this association. We investigated breast cancer characteristics in EP users for lean (BMI < 25 kg/m2) and overweight women (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). METHODS: The Icelandic Cancer Detection Clinic cohort, with information on breast cancer risk factors for 90% of Icelandic women, was linked with the population-based Icelandic Cancer Registry. A total of 781 women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed 51 years or older were matched with 7761 controls from the cohort. Conditional logistic regression was used for estimating adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) according to tumor characteristics, stratified by BMI. Polytomous logistic regression was applied in a case-only analysis for testing whether the risk associated with EP use differed according to tumor characteristics. RESULTS: Ever EP users had a twofold higher risk of breast cancer compared with never users (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.71-2.45). In lean women, EP use was significantly less likely to be associated with grade 2 or 3 tumors than grade 1 tumors, contrary to overweight women for whom risk was increased irrespective of grade. EP use in overweight women was associated with a higher risk of lobular than ductal cancer (OR 2.75, 95% CI 1.29-5.87). CONCLUSION: Among lean EP users, tumor characteristics were more favorable than among never users. This effect was not observed for overweight women.

Oestrogen receptor status, treatment and breast cancer prognosis in Icelandic BRCA2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: The impact of an inherited BRCA2 mutation on the prognosis of women with breast cancer has not been well documented. We studied the effects of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, other prognostic factors and treatments on survival in a large cohort of BRCA2 mutation carriers. METHODS: We identified 285 breast cancer patients with a 999del5 BRCA2 mutation and matched them with 570 non-carrier patients. Clinical information was abstracted from patient charts and pathology records and supplemented by evaluation of tumour grade and ER status using archived tissue specimens. Univariate and multivariate hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for breast cancer-specific survival using Cox regression. The effects of various therapies were studied in patients treated from 1980 to 2012. RESULTS: Among mutation carriers, positive ER status was associated with higher risk of death than negative ER status (HR=1.94; 95% CI=1.22-3.07, P=0.005). The reverse association was seen for non-carriers (HR=0.71; 95% CI: 0.51-0.97; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Among BRCA2 carriers, ER-positive status is an adverse prognostic factor. BRCA2 carrier status should be known at the time when treatment decisions are made.

Risk of drug-induced liver injury from tumor necrosis factor antagonists.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antagonists of tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF agents) can cause drug-induced liver injury (DILI), yet little is known about the level of risk. METHODS: We identified cases of DILI caused by anti-TNF agents in Iceland, from 2009 through 2013, at the National University Hospital of Iceland (n = 11). We collected data on the total use of the drugs by patients with DILI, and outcomes, compared with patients who received anti-TNF agents but who did not develop DILI (controls, n = 22). RESULTS: Of the 11 cases of DILI identified (8 women; mean age, 46 y), 9 cases were caused by infliximab. DILI developed in 1 of 120 patients who received infliximab, 1 in 270 patients who received adalimumab, and 1 in 430 patients who received etanercept. Most patients with infliximab-associated DILI developed this disorder after 4 infusions (n = 6). Four patients had jaundice at diagnosis of DILI, and 8 patients had hepatocellular liver injury. The mean peak level of alanine aminotransferase was 704 U/L, of aspartate aminotransferase was 503 U/L, of alkaline phosphatase was 261 U/L, and of bilirubin was 47 µmol/L. Seven patients with DILI were tested for antinuclear antibodies before therapy with an anti-TNF agent and 3 had positive test results, compared with 5 of the 14 controls tested. At DILI diagnosis, 8 of 11 patients tested positive for antinuclear antibodies. Of liver biopsy specimens collected from 5 patients with DILI, 3 showed signs of severe acute hepatitis. Only 9% of the patients who developed DILI received methotrexate during anti-TNF therapy, compared with 59% of controls (P = .009). DILI was treated with steroids in 5 patients, and in 4 cases steroid therapy was discontinued without relapse. Eight patients with DILI went on to receive treatment with different TNF antagonists without developing DILI. CONCLUSIONS: Of anti-TNF agents, infliximab is associated most frequently with DILI, developing in 1 of 120 patients who received this drug. Fifty percent of patients with anti-TNF-associated DILI required steroid therapy, but most did not need long-term treatment. The addition of methotrexate to anti-TNF therapy might reduce the risk of DILI.

Incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Iceland 1995 - 2009. A nationwide population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Iceland for the period 1995-2009. MATERIAL AND METHODS: New cases of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) were retrieved by thorough review of all small and large intestinal pathology reports with any type of inflammation from all the pathology departments in Iceland for the period 1995-2009. All suspicious new cases of IBD were then scrutinized retrospectively by examination of their clinical records. RESULTS: A total of 1175 cases of IBD were diagnosed, 884 UC, 279 CD and 12 IBD unclassified. The crude annual incidence of UC was 20.5/100,000, increasing from 18.1 the first 5-year period to 22.1 the last 5-year period. The crude annual incidence of CD was 6.5/100,000, 6.7 the first 5-year period and 6.6 the last 5-year period. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows statistically significant increase in the incidence of UC during the study period. The incidence of CD has however remained stable.

Long-term follow-up and liver-related death rate in patients with non-alcoholic and alcoholic related fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have compared the prognosis and liver-related mortality in patients with NAFLD (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) and AFLD (alcoholic fatty liver disease). We aimed to investigate the etiology and liver-related mortality of patients with liver biopsy verified fatty liver disease in a population based setting. METHODS: In this retrospective study, all patients who underwent a liver biopsy 1984-2009 at the National University Hospital of Iceland were identified through a computerized pathological database with the code for fatty liver. Only patients with NAFLD and AFLD were included and medical records reviewed. The patients were linked to the Hospital Discharge Register, the Causes of Death Registry and Centre for Addiction Medicine. RESULTS: A total of 151 had NAFLD and 94 AFLD with median survival of 24 years and 20 years, respectively (p = NS). A total of 10/151 (7%) patients developed cirrhosis in the NAFLD group and 19/94 (20%) in AFLD group (p = 0.03). The most common cause of death in the NAFLD group was cardiovascular disease (48%). Liver disease was the most common cause of death in the AFLD group (36%), whereas liver-related death occurred in 7% of the NAFLD group. The mean liver-related death rate among the general population during the study period was 0.1% of all deaths. There was a significantly worse survival for patients in the AFLD group compared to the NAFLD group after adjusting for gender, calendar year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis (HR 2.16, p = 0.009). The survival for patients with moderate to severe fibrosis was significantly worse than for patients with mild fibrosis after adjusting for gender, calendar year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis (HR 2.09, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with fatty liver disease showed a markedly higher risk of developing liver-related death compared to the general population. The AFLD group had higher liver-related mortality and had a worse survival than the NAFLD group. Patients with more severe fibrosis at baseline showed a worse survival than patients with none or mild fibrosis at baseline.

Tumour diploidy and survival in breast cancer patients with BRCA2 mutations.

It is not well known to what extent carrying a BRCA2 mutation affects the survival of women with breast cancer and prognostic factors among BRCA2-positive women warrant investigation. Using a record linkage approach we compared the long-term survival in carriers and noncarriers of an inherited BRCA2 founder mutation (999del5), and sought to identify prognostic factors among the BRCA2 mutation-positive subset, including markers of genetic instability (aneuploidy) and mitotic activity (S-phase fraction). We established the genetic status of 2,967 Icelandic breast cancer patients (215 mutation carriers and 2,752 noncarriers) diagnosed from 1955 to 2004, representing 72 % of all cases diagnosed in the country during this period. Tumour ploidy and S-phase fraction were assessed on tumour cells by DNA flow cytometry. Prognostic factors were assessed blindly with respect to mutation status. Univariate and multivariate hazard ratios (HR) were estimated for breast cancer-specific survival by BRCA2 status, using Cox regression. After a median follow-up of 9.5 years, BRCA2 mutation carriers had a higher risk of death from breast cancer than noncarriers (HR 1.64, 95 % CI 1.24-2.16, p < 0.001). The risk increase was restricted to women with diploid tumours (HR 3.03, 95 % CI 1.91-4.79, p < 0.001). Among breast cancer patients with aneuploid tumours, survival of carriers was similar to that of noncarriers (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.41-1.41, p = 0.38). Increased tumour size and a positive nodal status predicted worse prognosis in all patients, whereas the highly correlated prognostic factors diploidy, low proliferative activity and a positive estrogen receptor status had reverse effects in mutation carriers and noncarriers. Breast cancer patients who carry the Icelandic founder BRCA2 mutation have inferior long-term survival than noncarriers, but the adverse prognosis is restricted to mutation carriers with diploid, slowly proliferating tumours.

Risk of recurrence of gastrointestinal stromal tumour after surgery: an analysis of pooled population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk of recurrence of gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) after surgery needs to be estimated when considering adjuvant systemic therapy. We assessed prognostic factors of patients with operable GIST, to compare widely used risk-stratification schemes and to develop a new method for risk estimation. METHODS: Population-based cohorts of patients diagnosed with operable GIST, who were not given adjuvant therapy, were identified from the literature. Data from ten series and 2560 patients were pooled. Risk of tumour recurrence was stratified using the National Institute of Health (NIH) consensus criteria, the modified consensus criteria, and the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) criteria. Prognostic factors were examined using proportional hazards and non-linear models. The results were validated in an independent centre-based cohort consisting of 920 patients with GIST. FINDINGS: Estimated 15-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery was 59·9% (95% CI 56·2-63·6); few recurrences occurred after the first 10 years of follow-up. Large tumour size, high mitosis count, non-gastric location, presence of rupture, and male sex were independent adverse prognostic factors. In receiver operating characteristics curve analysis of 10-year RFS, the NIH consensus criteria, modified consensus criteria, and AFIP criteria resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·81), 0·78 (0·75-0·80), and 0·82 (0·80-0·85), respectively. The modified consensus criteria identified a single high-risk group. Since tumour size and mitosis count had a non-linear association with the risk of GIST recurrence, novel prognostic contour maps were generated using non-linear modelling of tumour size and mitosis count, and taking into account tumour site and rupture. The non-linear model accurately predicted the risk of recurrence (AUC 0·88, 0·86-0·90). INTERPRETATION: The risk-stratification schemes assessed identify patients who are likely to be cured by surgery alone. Although the modified NIH classification is the best criteria to identify a single high-risk group for consideration of adjuvant therapy, the prognostic contour maps resulting from non-linear modelling are appropriate for estimation of individualised outcomes. FUNDING: Academy of Finland, Cancer Society of Finland, Sigrid Juselius Foundation and Helsinki University Research Funds.