A High-Resolution National-Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model.

Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large-scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15-day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high-density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high-density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.

Urban Thirst and Rural Water: The Saga of the Southern Nevada Groundwater Development Project.

In 1989, the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) launched the Southern Nevada Groundwater Development Project-a bold plan to construct a series of deep wells in east-central Nevada to pump groundwater and send it to the Las Vegas region through 300 miles of pipeline. Before starting work on the project, SNWA conducted an environmental impact study and secured water rights in the valleys. Applications for additional new water rights were filed with Nevada State Engineer on the basis of uncaptured evapotranspiration. The SNWA spent decades and millions of dollars studying the hydrogeology of the region and developing computer models to demonstrate that the project would not have an unduly negative impact on the ecology or water users in the region. The project was opposed by environmental groups, native American tribes, and existing water rights holders. One of the protestants was the Cleveland Ranch in Spring Valley. Using the SNWA's own groundwater model, the ranch argued that the project would result in substantial harm to the ranch's water rights which included springs, wells, and a stream, and that the project would result in perpetual groundwater mining, which is forbidden by Nevada state policy. The Nevada State Engineer approved the project, but the decision was eventually reversed by Seventh District Court, which sided with the ranch and ruled that the project would never be sustainable and is therefore not compatible with Nevada policy. The project was formally abandoned in 2020.

A three-dimensional analytical tool for modeling reactive transport.

In this note, we present a public domain analytical reactive transport modeling tool (ART3D, version 2.0). The tool is developed in FORTRAN and can be used for solving a system of a set of partial differential equations coupled with a first-order reaction network. ART3D uses a novel analytic solution technique proposed by Clement. The new software includes options for performing Monte Carlo simulations and automated parameter estimation.

Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.

This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.

A comparison of three-dimensional interpolation techniques for plume characterization.

Interpolation of contaminant data can present a significant challenge due to sample clustering and sharp gradients in concentration. The research presented in this paper represents a study of commonly used interpolation schemes applied to three-dimensional plume characterization. Kriging, natural neighbor, and inverse distance weighted interpolation were tested on four actual data sets. The accuracy of each scheme was gauged using the cross-validation approach. Each scheme was compared to the other schemes and the effect of various interpolation parameters was studied. The kriging approach resulted in the lowest error at three of the four sites. The simpler and quicker inverse distance weighted approach resulted in a lower interpolation error on the other site and performed well overall. The natural neighbor method had the highest average error at all four sites in spite of the fact that it has been shown to perform well with clustered data. Another unexpected result was that the computationally expensive high order nodal functions resulted in reduced accuracy for the inverse distance weighted and natural neighbor approaches.

Generating MODFLOW grids from boundary representation solid models.

Complex stratigraphy can be difficult to simulate in MODFLOW models. MODFLOW uses a structured grid that requires that each grid layer be continuous throughout the model domain. This makes it difficult to explicitly represent common features such as pinchouts and embedded seams in a MODFLOW model. In this paper, we describe a method for automatically generating MODFLOW-compatible grids from boundary-representation solid models. Solid models are data structures developed originally for computer-aided design applications that define the geometry of three-dimensional objects. Solid models can be used to represent arbitrarily complex stratigraphy. The elevations defined by the solids are then extracted from the solids in a manner that preserves the continuous-layer requirement imposed by MODFLOW. Two basic approaches are described: The first method adjusts the MODFLOW grid dimensions (layer elevations) to fit the solid model boundaries, and the second method creates a regular MODFLOW grid and adjusts the material properties to match the changes in stratigraphy. One of the main benefits of using solid models to define stratigraphy for MODFLOW models is that it provides a grid-independent definition of the layer elevations that can be used to immediately re-create the MODFLOW grid geometry after any change to the grid resolution.

Efficient storage of large MODFLOW models.

We present a methodology for storing the bulkier portions of a set of MODFLOW input and output files in a compressed binary format using the HDF5 library. This approach results in compression ratios of up to 99% with no significant time penalty. The highly compressed format is particularly beneficial when dealing with large regional models or Monte Carlo simulations. The strategy is focused on the list- and array-based portions of the input files including the cell property and recharge arrays, and is compatible with models containing parameters, including pilot points. The utilities are based on a modified version of the MODFLOW code and are, therefore, compatible with any standard MODFLOW simulation. We present used cases and instructions on how to use the utilities.

An obsession with CO2.

The concept that underlies this paper is that carbon dioxide (CO2) removal is at least as important as the delivery of oxygen for maximum performance during exercise. Increases in CO2 pressure and reductions in the pH of muscle influence muscle contractile properties and muscle metabolism (via effects on rate-limiting enzymes), and contribute to limiting symptoms. The approach of Barcroft exemplified the importance of integrative physiology, in describing the adaptive responses of the circulatory and respiratory systems to the demands of CO2 production during exercise. The extent to which failure in the response of one system may be countered by adaptation in another is also explained by this approach. A key factor in these linked systems is the transport of CO2 in the circulation. CO2 is mainly (90%) transported as bicarbonate ions--as such, transport of CO2 is critically related to acid-base homeostasis. Understanding in this field has been facilitated by the approach of Peter Stewart. Rooted in classical physico-chemical relationships, the approach identifies the independent variables contributing to homeostasis--the strong ion difference ([SID]), ionization of weak acids (buffers, Atot) and CO2 pressure (PCO2). The independent variables may be reliably measured or estimated in muscle, plasma, and whole blood. Equilibrium conditions are calculated to derive the dependent variables--the most important being the concentrations of bicarbonate and hydrogen ions. During heavy exercise, muscle [H+] can exceed 300 nEq.L-1 (pH 6.5), mainly due to a greatly elevated PCO2 and fall in [SID] as a result of increased lactate (La-) production. As blood flows through active muscle, [La-] increase in plasma is reduced by uptake of La- and Cl- by red blood cells, with a resultant increase in plasma [HCO3-]. Inactive muscle contributes to homeostasis through transfer of La- and Cl- into the muscle from both plasma and red blood cells; this results in a large increase in [HCO3-]. In the lungs, oxygenation of hemoglobin increases red blood cell [A-] aiding rapid conversion of HCO3- into CO2 in red cells (containing carbonic anhydrase), with diffusion of CO2 into alveoli, but full equilibration of the CO2 system in plasma may not occur during the short pulmonary capillary circulation time in heavy exercise. The ionization state of imidazole groups on protein histidine may provide integration between acid-base homeostasis, membrane anion transfer proteins, and activation of rate-limiting enzymes.

Effects of short-term training on plasma acid-base balance during incremental exercise in man.

The present study examined the effect of short-term submaximal training on plasma acid-base balance during exercise. The influence of water and ion exchange between plasma, active muscles and erythrocytes in the response to training were also studied. The contributions of independent physicochemical variables (i.e. strong ion difference ([SID]), total concentration of weak acids ([Atot]) and PO2) to changes in arterial (a) and femoral venous (v) plasma [H+] were examined in six subjects (age 24+/-1.5 years; maximum oxygen consumption rate (VO2,max), 3.67+/-0.24 l min(-1)) during steady-state cycling for 15 min at each of 30, 65 and 75% of VO2,max before (pre) and after (post) training for 7 days on a cycle ergometer (2 h daily at 60 % VO2,max). The rise in [H+]a during exercise was attenuated post-training by 3 and 5 nequiv l(-1) (P<0.05) at 65 and 75% VO2,max, respectively, due first to less decrease in [SID]a, secondary to lower [Cl-]a and [Lac-]a; and second, to a reduction in [Atot]a, due to greater plasma volume and less plasma water flux (Jv) into leg muscle (P<0.05). The rise in [H+]v was also less in post-training by 4.5 and 6 nequiv l(-1) (P<0.05) at 65 and 75% VO2,max, respectively, and attributed solely to lower [Atot]v (P<0.05). Attenuation of exercise induced decreases in plasma [SID]a and [SID]v from rest to 75 % VO2,max was accompanied by reductions in erythrocyte Lac- and Cl- uptake (P<0.05), and smaller increases in erythrocyte K+ release (P<0.05). We conclude that the training-induced attenuation of the rise in plasma [H+]a and [H+]v during incremental exercise resulted from adaptive changes within muscles (less Lac- production and less water uptake) and erythrocytes (less uptake of Lac-, Cl- and K+), leading to greater [SID] and lower [Atot] in both arterial and femoral venous plasma.