Exercise Performance Is a Prognostic Indicator in Elderly Patients With Chronic Heart Failure--Application of Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Indexes Score.

BACKGROUND: In patients with chronic heart failure (HF) the Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score, is a predictor of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplantation. We investigated the relationship between age, exercise tolerance and the prognostic value of the MECKI score. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3,794 patients with chronic systolic HF. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplantation. Older patients had higher prevalence of comorbidities and lower exercise performance compared with younger subjects (peak V̇O2, 925 vs. 1,351 L/min; P<0.0001; V̇E/V̇CO2slope, 33.2 vs. 28.3; P>0.0001). The rate of the primary endpoint was 19% in the highest age quartile and 14% in the lowest quartile. At multivariable analysis, the independent predictors of the primary endpoint were left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), eGFR, peak V̇O2, serum Na(+)and the use of ß-blockers in patients aged ≥70 years, and LVEF, eGFR and peak V̇O2in younger subjects. The MECKI risk score increased across age subgroups, but on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis its prognostic power was similar in both patients aged ≥70 and <70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with HF are a high-risk population with lower exercise performance. The MECKI score increased according to age and maintained its prognostic value also in older patients.

Renal function and peak exercise oxygen consumption in chronic heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is associated with sympathetic activation and muscle abnormalities, which may contribute to decreased exercise capacity. We investigated the correlation of renal function with peak exercise oxygen consumption (V̇O2) in heart failure (HF) patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited 2,938 systolic HF patients who underwent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The patients were stratified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Mean follow-up was 3.7 years. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplantation at 3 years. On multivariable regression, eGFR was predictor of peakV̇O2(P<0.0001). Other predictors were age, sex, body mass index, HF etiology, NYHA class, atrial fibrillation, resting heart rate, B-type natriuretic peptide, hemoglobin, and treatment. After adjusting for significant covariates, the hazard ratio for primary outcome associated with peakV̇O2<12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)was 1.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-2.91; P=0.0292) in patients with eGFR ≥60, 1.77 (0.87-3.61; P=0.1141) in those with eGFR of 45-59, and 2.72 (1.01-7.37; P=0.0489) in those with eGFR <45 ml·min(-1)·1.73 m(-2). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for peakV̇O2<12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54-0.71), 0.67 (0.56-0.78), and 0.57 (0.47-0.69), respectively. Testing for interaction was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Renal dysfunction is correlated with peakV̇O2. A peakV̇O2cutoff of 12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)offers limited prognostic information in HF patients with more severely impaired renal function.

Role of comorbidities in heart failure prognosis Part 2: Chronic kidney disease, elevated serum uric acid.

Despite improvements in pharmacotherapy, morbidity and mortality rates in community-based populations with chronic heart failure still remain high. The increase in medical complexity among patients with heart failure may be reflected by an increase in concomitant non-cardiovascular comorbidities, which are recognized as independent prognostic factors in this population. Heart failure and chronic kidney disease share many risk factors, and often coexist. The presence of kidney failure is associated with incremented risk of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality in heart failure patients. Chronic kidney disease is also linked with underutilization of evidence-based heart failure therapy that may reduce morbidity and mortality. More targeted therapies would be important to improve the prognosis of patients with these diseases. In recent years, serum uric acid as a determinant of cardiovascular risk has gained interest. Epidemiological, experimental and clinical data show that patients with hyperuricaemia are at increased risk of cardiac, renal and vascular damage and cardiovascular events. Moreover, elevated serum uric acid predicts worse outcome in both acute and chronic heart failure. While studies have raised the possibility of preventing heart failure through the use of uric acid lowering agents, the literature is still inconclusive on whether the reduction in uric acid will result in a measurable clinical benefit. Available evidences suggest that chronic kidney disease and elevated uric acid could worsen heart failure patients' prognosis. The aim of this review is to analyse a possible utilization of these comorbidities in risk stratification and as a therapeutic target to get a prognostic improvement in heart failure patients.

Increased serum uric acid level predicts poor prognosis in mildly severe chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. An analysis from the MECKI score research group.

BACKGROUND: Hyperuricemia prognostic impact on clinical outcomes in chronic heart failure (HF) patients has been investigated with inconclusive results. OBJECTIVES: Aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of serum uric acid (SUA) on long-term clinical outcomes in HF. METHODS: An analysis of MECKI (Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index) database, with median follow-up of 3.4 years. RESULTS: Relation between SUA and all-cause/ cardiovascular (CV) deaths have been analysed in 4,577 patients (3,688 males, age 62.7 ±â€¯12.9 years), with reduced ejection fraction HF (35 ± 11%), peakVO2 1151 ± 440 ml/min; NYHA class I-II (72.6%), III-IV (27.4%). SUA was associated with increased total and CV mortality (HR 1.120 and HR 1.128, respectively p < 0.0001), also after adjustment for peakVO2, VE/VCO2 slope, diuretic use and MECKI score. SUA was significantly associated with CV mortality only in NYHA class I-II (HR 1.17, p < 0.0001) while there was no association in class III-IV (HR 1.03, p = NS). No prognostic added values of SUA with respect to the MECKI score was observed at the ROC analysis. CONCLUSIONS: SUA is confirmed to be associated with increased mortality, but in less severe HF only. However SUA did not show additional prognostic power to the MECKI score.

Permanent atrial fibrillation affects exercise capacity in chronic heart failure patients.

AIMS: The influence of permanent atrial fibrillation on exercise tolerance and cardio-respiratory function during exercise in heart failure (HF) is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively compared the results of 942 cardiopulmonary exercise tests, performed consecutively at seven Italian laboratories, in HF patients with atrial fibrillation (n = 180) and sinus rhythm (n = 762). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, peak VO(2) (OR 0.376, 95% CI 0.240-0.588, P < 0.0001), O(2)pulse (VO(2)/heart rate, HR) (OR 0.236, 95% CI 0.152-0.366, P < 0.0001), VCO(2) (OR 3.97, 95% CI 2.163-7.287, P < 0.0001), and ventilation (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.045-1.821, P = 0.0231) were independently associated with atrial fibrillation. Anaerobic threshold (AT) was identified in 132 of 180 (73%) atrial fibrillation and in 649 of 762 (85%) sinus rhythm patients (P = 0.0002). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, only peak VO(2) (OR 0.214, 95% CI 0.155-0.296, P < 0.0001) was independently associated with unidentified AT. At AT, atrial fibrillation HF patients had higher HR (P < 0.0001) and higher VO(2) (P < 0.001) compared with sinus rhythm HF patients. Among AT variables, by multivariable logistic regression analysis, only HR was an independent predictor of atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSION: In HF patients with permanent atrial fibrillation, exercise performance is reduced as reflected by reduced peak VO(2). The finding of unidentified AT is associated with a poor performance. In atrial fibrillation patients, VO(2) is higher at AT whereas lower at peak. This last observation raises uncertainties about the use of AT data to define performance and prognosis of HF patients with atrial fibrillation.

Heart failure and anemia: Effects on prognostic variables.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is frequent in heart failure (HF), and it is associated with higher mortality. The predictive power of established HF prognostic parameters in anemic HF patients is unknown. METHODS: Clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and cardiopulmonary-exercise-test (CPET) data were analyzed in 3913 HF patients grouped according to hemoglobin (Hb) values. 248 (6%), 857 (22%), 2160 (55%) and 648 (17%) patients had very low (<11g/dL), low (11-12 for females, 11-13 for males), normal (12-15 for females, 13-15 for males) and high (>15) Hb, respectively. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 1363days (606-1883). CPETs were always performed safely. Hb was related to prognosis (Hazard ratio (HR)=0.864). No prognostic difference was observed between normal and high Hb groups. Peak oxygen consumption (VO2), ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO2 slope), plasma sodium concentration, ejection fraction (LVEF), kidney function and Hb were independently related to prognosis in the entire population. Considering Hb groups separately, peakVO2 (very low Hb HR=0.549, low Hb HR=0.613, normal Hb HR=0.618, high Hb HR=0.542) and LVEF (very low Hb HR=0.49, low Hb HR=0.692, normal Hb HR=0.697, high Hb HR=0.694) maintained their prognostic roles. High VE/VCO2 slope was associated with poor prognosis only in patients with low and normal Hb. CONCLUSIONS: Anemic HF patients have a worse prognosis, but CPET can be safely performed. PeakVO2 and LVEF, but not VE/VCO2 slope, maintain their prognostic power also in HF patients with Hb<11g/dL, suggesting CPET use and a multiparametric approach in HF patients with low Hb. However, the prognostic effect of an anemia-oriented follow-up is unknown.

Sex Profile and Risk Assessment With Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in Heart Failure: Propensity Score Matching for Sex Selection Bias.

BACKGROUND: In heart failure (HF), women show better survival despite a comparatively low peak oxygen consumption (V˙o2): this raises doubt about the accuracy of risk assessment by cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in women. Accordingly, we aimed to check (1) whether the predictive role of well-known CPET risk indexes, ie, peak V˙o2 and ventilatory response (V˙e/V˙co2 slope), is sex independent and (2) if sex-related characteristics that impact outcome in HF should be considered as associations that may confound the effect of sex on survival. METHODS: The study population consisted of 2985 patients with HF, 498 (17%) of whom were women, from the multicentre Metabolic Exercise Test Data Combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI): the end point was cardiovascular death within a 3-year period. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 305 (12%) men and 39 (8%) women (P = 0.005) died, and female sex was linked to better survival on univariate analysis (P = 0.008) and independent of peak V˙o2 and V˙e/V˙co2 slope on multivariate analysis. According to propensity score matching for female sex to exclude a sex selection bias and sample discrepancy, 498 men were selected: the standardized percentage bias ranged from 20.8 (P < 0.0001) to 3.3 (P = 0.667). After clinical profile harmonizing, female sex was predictive of HF at univariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The low peak V˙o2 and female association with better outcome in HF might be counterfeit: the female prognostic advantage is lost when sex-specific differences are correctly taken into account with propensity score matching, suggesting that for an effective and efficient HF model, adjustment must be made for sex-related characteristics.

The metabolic exercise test data combined with Cardiac And Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score and prognosis in heart failure. A validation study.

BACKGROUND: The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score is a prognostic model to identify heart failure (HF) patients at risk for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and urgent heart transplantation (uHT) based on 6 routine clinical parameters: hemoglobin, sodium, kidney function by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF), percentage of predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2) and VE/VCO2 slope. OBJECTIVES: MECKI score must be generalizable to be considered useful: therefore, its performance was validated in a new sequence of HF patients. METHODS: Both the development (MECKI-D) and the validation (MECKI-V) cohorts were composed of consecutive HF patients with LVEF <40% able to perform a symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The CVM or uHT rates were analyzed at one, two and three years in both cohorts: all patients with a censoring time shorter than the scheduled follow-up were excluded, while those with events occurring after 1, 2 and 3 years were considered as censored. RESULTS: MECKI-D and MECKI-V consisted of 2009 and 992 patients, respectively. MECKI-V patients had a higher LVEF, higher peak VO2 and lower VE/VCO2 slope, higher prescription of beta-blockers and device therapy: after the 3-year follow-up, CVM or uHT occurred in 206 (18%) MECKI-D and 44 (13%) MECKI-V patients (p<0.000), respectively. MECKI-V AUC values at one, two and three years were 0.81 ± 0.04, 0.76 ± 0.04, and 0.80 ± 0.03, respectively, not significantly different from MECKI-D. CONCLUSIONS: MECKI score preserves its predictive ability in a HF population at a lower risk.

Work-rate affects cardiopulmonary exercise test results in heart failure.

AIMS: Cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) is used to evaluate patients with chronic heart failure (HF) usually by means of a personalized ramp exercise protocol. Our aim was to evaluate if exercise duration or ramp rate influences the results. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety HF patients were studied (peak V (O(2)): >20 ml/min/kg, n=28, 15-20 ml/min/kg, n=39 and <15 ml/min/kg, n=23). Each patient did four CPET studies. The initial study was used to separate the subjects into three groups, according to their exercise capacity. In the remaining studies, work-rate was increased at three different rates designed to have the subjects reach peak exercise in 5, 10 and 15 min from the start of the ramp increase in work-rate, respectively. The order was randomized. The work-rate applied for the total population averaged 22.7+/-8.0, 11.6+/-3.7, 7.5+/-2.9 W/min with effective loaded exercise duration of 5 min and 16 s+/-29 s, 9 min and 43 s+/-49 s and 14 min and 32 s+/-1 min and 12 s for the 5-, 10- and 15-min tests, respectively. Peak V (O(2)) averaged 16.9+/-4.3*, 18.0+/-4.4 and 18.0+/-5.4 ml/min/kg for the 5-, 10- and 15-min tests, (*=p<0.001 vs. 10 min). The shortest test had the lowest peak heart rate and ventilation and highest peak work-rate. Peak V (O(2)) and heart rate were lowest in 5-min tests regardless of HF severity. The DeltaV (O(2))/Deltawork-rate was lowest in 5-min tests and highest in 15-min tests. At all ramp rates, DeltaV (O(2))/Deltawork-rate was lower for the subjects with the lower peak V (O(2)). The V (e)/V (CO(2)) slope and V (O(2)) at anaerobic threshold were not affected by the protocol for any grade of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In chronic HF, exercise protocol has a small effect on peak V (O(2)) and DeltaV (O(2))/Deltawork but does not affect V (O(2)) at anaerobic threshold and V (e)/V (CO(2)) slope.

Deceptive meaning of oxygen uptake measured at the anaerobic threshold in patients with systolic heart failure and atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen uptake at the anaerobic threshold (VO2AT), a submaximal exercise-derived variable, independent of patients' motivation, is a marker of outcome in heart failure (HF). However, previous evidence of VO2AT values paradoxically higher in HF patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) than in those with sinus rhythm (SR) raised uncertainties. DESIGN: We tested the prognostic role of VO2AT in a large cohort of systolic HF patients, focusing on possible differences between SR and AF. METHODS: Altogether 2976 HF patients (2578 with SR and 398 with AF) were prospectively followed. Besides a clinical examination, each patient underwent a maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET). RESULTS: The follow-up was analysed for up to 1500 days. Cardiovascular death or urgent cardiac transplantation occurred in 303 patients (250 (9.6%) patients with SR and 53 (13.3%) patients with AF, p = 0.023). In the entire population, multivariate analysis including peak oxygen uptake (VO2) showed a prognostic capacity (C-index) similar to that obtained including VO2AT (0.76 vs 0.72). Also, left ventricular ejection fraction, ventilation vs carbon dioxide production slope, ß-blocker and digoxin therapy proved to be significant prognostic indexes. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis showed that the best predictive VO2AT cut-off for the SR group was 11.7 ml/kg/min, while it was 12.8 ml/kg/min for the AF group. CONCLUSIONS: VO2AT, a submaximal CPET-derived parameter, is reliable for long-term cardiovascular mortality prognostication in stable systolic HF. However, different VO2AT cut-off values between SR and AF HF patients should be adopted.

Prognostic role of atrial fibrillation in patients affected by chronic heart failure. Data from the MECKI score research group.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF). It is unclear whether AF has an independent prognostic role in HF. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic role of AF in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF). METHODS: HF patients were followed in 17 centers for 3.15years (1.51-5.24). Study endpoints were the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart transplant (HTX) and all-cause death. Data analysis was performed considering the entire population and a 1 to 1 match between sinus rhythm (SR) and AF patients. Match process was done for age±5, gender, left ventricle EF±5, peakVO2±3 (ml/min/kg) and recruiting center. RESULTS: A total of 3447 patients (SR=2882, AF=565) were included in the study. Considering the entire population, CV death and HTX occurred in 114 (20%) AF vs. 471 (16%) SR (p=0.026) and all-cause death in 130 (23%) AF vs. 554 (19.2%) SR patients (p=0.039). At univariable Cox analysis, AF was significantly related to prognosis. Applying a multivariable model based on all variables significant at univariable analysis (EF, peakVO2, ventilation/carbon dioxide relationship slope, sodium, kidney function, hemoglobin, beta-blockers and digoxin) AF was no longer associated with adverse outcomes. Matching procedure resulted in 338 couples. CV death and HTX occurred in 63 (18.6%) AF vs. 74 (21.9%) SR (p=0.293) and all-cause death in 71 (21%) AF vs. 80 (23.6%) SR (p=0.406), with no survival differences between groups. CONCLUSION: In systolic HF AF is a marker of disease severity but not an independent prognostic indicator.

Metabolic exercise test data combined with cardiac and kidney indexes, the MECKI score: a multiparametric approach to heart failure prognosis.

OBJECTIVES: We built and validated a new heart failure (HF) prognostic model which integrates cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameters with easy-to-obtain clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables. BACKGROUND: HF prognostication is a challenging medical judgment, constrained by a magnitude of uncertainty. METHODS: Our risk model was derived from a cohort of 2716 systolic HF patients followed in 13 Italian centers. Median follow up was 1041days (range 4-5185). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis with stepwise selection of variables was used, followed by cross-validation procedure. The study end-point was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplant. RESULTS: Six variables (hemoglobin, Na(+), kidney function by means of MDRD, left ventricle ejection fraction [echocardiography], peak oxygen consumption [% pred] and VE/VCO2 slope) out of the several evaluated resulted independently related to prognosis. A score was built from Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Indexes, the MECKI score, which identified the risk of study end-point with AUC values of 0.804 (0.754-0.852) at 1year, 0.789 (0.750-0.828) at 2years, 0.762 (0.726-0.799) at 3years and 0.760 (0.724-0.796) at 4years. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first large-scale multicenter study where a prognostic score, the MECKI score, has been built for systolic HF patients considering CPET data combined with clinical, laboratory and echocardiographic measurements. In the present population, the MECKI score has been successfully validated, performing very high AUC.

Prognostic value of indeterminable anaerobic threshold in heart failure.

BACKGROUND: In patients with heart failure (HF), during maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test, anaerobic threshold (AT) is not always identified. We evaluated whether this finding has a prognostic meaning. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited and prospectively followed up, in 14 dedicated HF units, 3058 patients with systolic (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) HF in stable clinical conditions, New York Heart Association class I to III, who underwent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise test investigations at study enrollment. We excluded 921 patients who did not perform a maximal exercise, based on lack of achievement of anaerobic metabolism (peak respiratory quotient ≤1.05). Primary study end point was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent cardiac transplant, and secondary end point was all-cause death. Median follow-up was 3.01 (1.39-4.98) years. AT was identified in 1935 out of 2137 patients (90.54%). At multivariable logistic analysis, failure in detecting AT resulted significantly in reduced peak oxygen uptake and higher metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score value, a powerful prognostic composite HF index (P<0.001). At multivariable analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with primary study end point: peak oxygen uptake (% pred; P<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=0.977; confidence interval [CI]=0.97-0.98), ventilatory efficiency slope (P=0.01; HR=1.02; CI=1.01-1.03), hemoglobin (P<0.05; HR=0.931; CI=0.87-1.00), left ventricular ejection fraction (P<0.001; HR=0.948; CI=0.94-0.96), renal function (modification of diet in renal disease; P<0.001; HR=0.990; CI=0.98-0.99), sodium (P<0.05; HR=0.967; CI=0.94-0.99), and AT nonidentification (P<0.05; HR=1.41; CI=1.06-1.89). Nonidentification of AT remained associated to prognosis also when compared with metabolic exercise and cardiac and kidney index score (P<0.01; HR=1.459; CI=1.09-1.10). Similar results were obtained for the secondary study end point. CONCLUSIONS: The inability to identify AT most often occurs in patients with severe HF, and it has an independent prognostic role in HF.

APO(a) variants and lipoprotein(a) in men with or without myocardial infarction.

The lipoprotein Lp(a) with high plasma concentration is an independent genetic determinant for cardiovascular diseases. It was investigated as a quantitative factor of risk for myocardial infarction. A total of 345 Italian subjects, 127 Cases and 218 Controls, were studied. Lipids and lipoproteins were compared. Cases had atherogenic traits, such as lower HDL cholesterol and higher triglycerides than Controls. In particular, they had Lp(a) concentrations over the risk threshold, (median, 27 mg/dl in Cases vs 17 mg/dl in Controls; P = 0.0075, Mann-Whitney test) which confirmed the association of this parameter with the disease. Two main functional variants of the apo(a) gene, KringleIV and penta-nucleotide repeat, (PNR) were analyzed. Allele and genotype frequency distributions differed between Cases and Controls. Lp(a) concentrations differed according to PNR genotypes in Controls: subjects having alleles >8 showed lower Lp(a). This was not found in Cases. They had a higher prevalence of the smaller KringleIV alleles, the high Lp(a)-expressing ones. In Cases, genotypes consisting of two small KringleIV alleles were prevalently associated to PNR 8/9 and 8/10, thus preventing Lp(a) lowering. The putative apo(a) enhancer within LINE1 in the apo(a)-plasminogen intergenic region was investigated for functional polymorphisms. No variants that could be associated to the Lp(a) variability were found.