The Reality of Antimicrobial Resistance and Antibiotic Usage Data in Asia: The CAPTURA Experience.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), particularly in low- and middle-income countries, is threatening to undermine advances in health and development. Scarce technical and human resources in these countries limit the collection of quality AMR data for evidence-based decision-making. The CAPTURA consortium, funded by the Fleming Fund, was implemented across 7 countries in the South and Southeast Asian region. The program focused on collating historical bacteriological data for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The team gathered standard data on the quality of laboratories and clinics and the quality and quantity of retrospective historical AMR data. In addition, retrospective data on antimicrobial use and consumption were analyzed. While standard protocols guided the project, a tailored approach for stakeholder engagement was implemented to work with countries and secure data-sharing agreements. The program also had to navigate the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, making some innovative adaptations to overcome logistical barriers. From 2018 through 2022, a large body of data was collected that was used to base a series of recommended key measures for strengthening the development of standardized national surveillance programs and to support alignment with international efforts.

CAPTURA Regional Workshop Proceedings (28-30 June 2022, Virtual).

In response to the global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), the Capturing Data on Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns and Trends in Use in Regions of Asia (CAPTURA) project worked with microbiology laboratories, pharmacies, and local governments in South Asia and Southeast Asia to expand the volume of historical and current data available on AMR and antimicrobial use and to identify gaps in data and areas for quality improvement. When the CAPTURA project completed its country-level engagement in the first half of 2022, the consortium brought together local, regional, and global AMR stakeholders for a virtual regional workshop to review data outputs from the project and share strategies to inform national and regional efforts to combat AMR. This paper summarizes the main topics presented in the workshop held from 28 to 30 June 2022. As such, it highlights lessons learned from the project and strategies to fight AMR. Although CAPTURA has been invaluable to countries and information from the project is already being used, barriers concerning data quality and sharing remain. Regional-level initiatives should continue to build on the momentum gained from the CAPTURA project in supporting national-level surveillance and data quality improvements to inform critical decisions around planning, policies, and clinical care. Project findings have highlighted that issues with antimicrobial resistance and use are wide ranging across countries. Going forward, building on the current foundations and tailoring approaches to meet local needs and capacities will be fundamental in combatting AMR.

Effect of adherence to primaquine on the risk of Plasmodium vivax recurrence: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Imperfect adherence is a major barrier to effective primaquine radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. This study investigated the effect of reduced adherence on the risk of P. vivax recurrence. METHODS: Efficacy studies of patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, including a treatment arm with daily primaquine, published between January 1999 and March 2020 were identified. Individual patient data from eligible studies were pooled using standardized methodology. Adherence to primaquine was inferred from i) the percentage of supervised doses and ii) the total mg/kg dose received compared to the target total mg/kg dose per protocol. The effect of adherence to primaquine on the incidence of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 90 was investigated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 eligible studies, 32 were available including 6917 patients from 18 countries. For adherence assessed by percentage of supervised primaquine, 2790 patients (40.3%) had poor adherence (≤ 50%) and 4127 (59.7%) had complete adherence. The risk of recurrence by day 90 was 14.0% [95% confidence interval: 12.1-16.1] in patients with poor adherence compared to 5.8% [5.0-6.7] following full adherence; p = 0.014. After controlling for age, sex, baseline parasitaemia, and total primaquine dose per protocol, the rate of the first recurrence was higher following poor adherence compared to patients with full adherence (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.3 [1.8-2.9]). When adherence was quantified by total mg/kg dose received among 3706 patients, 347 (9.4%) had poor adherence, 88 (2.4%) had moderate adherence, and 3271 (88.2%) had complete adherence to treatment. The risks of recurrence by day 90 were 8.2% [4.3-15.2] in patients with poor adherence and 4.9% [4.1-5.8] in patients with full adherence; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Reduced adherence, including less supervision, increases the risk of vivax recurrence.

The haematological consequences of Plasmodium vivax malaria after chloroquine treatment with and without primaquine: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria causes a reduction in haemoglobin that is compounded by primaquine, particularly in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contributions to red cell loss of malaria and primaquine in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax. METHODS: A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies of chloroquine with or without primaquine published between January 2000 and March 2017. Individual patient data were pooled using standardised methodology, and the haematological response versus time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with non-linear terms for time. Mean differences in haemoglobin between treatment groups at day of nadir and day 42 were estimated from this model. RESULTS: In total, 3421 patients from 29 studies were included: 1692 (49.5%) with normal G6PD status, 1701 (49.7%) with unknown status and 28 (0.8%) deficient or borderline individuals. Of 1975 patients treated with chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin fell from 12.22 g/dL [95% CI 11.93, 12.50] on day 0 to a nadir of 11.64 g/dL [11.36, 11.93] on day 2, before rising to 12.88 g/dL [12.60, 13.17] on day 42. In comparison to chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin in 1446 patients treated with chloroquine plus primaquine was - 0.13 g/dL [- 0.27, 0.01] lower at day of nadir (p = 0.072), but 0.49 g/dL [0.28, 0.69] higher by day 42 (p < 0.001). On day 42, patients with recurrent parasitaemia had a mean haemoglobin concentration - 0.72 g/dL [- 0.90, - 0.54] lower than patients without recurrence (p < 0.001). Seven days after starting primaquine, G6PD normal patients had a 0.3% (1/389) risk of clinically significant haemolysis (fall in haemoglobin > 25% to < 7 g/dL) and a 1% (4/389) risk of a fall in haemoglobin > 5 g/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Primaquine has the potential to reduce malaria-related anaemia at day 42 and beyond by preventing recurrent parasitaemia. Its widespread implementation will require accurate diagnosis of G6PD deficiency to reduce the risk of drug-induced haemolysis in vulnerable individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42016053312. The date of the first registration was 23 December 2016.

Use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests by community health workers in Afghanistan: cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends parasitological diagnosis of malaria before treatment, but use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) by community health workers (CHWs) has not been fully tested within health services in south and central Asia. mRDTs could allow CHWs to diagnose malaria accurately, improving treatment of febrile illness. METHODS: A cluster randomised trial in community health services was undertaken in Afghanistan. The primary outcome was the proportion of suspected malaria cases correctly treated for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed malaria and PCR negative cases receiving no antimalarial drugs measured at the level of the patient. CHWs from 22 clusters (clinics) received standard training on clinical diagnosis and treatment of malaria; 11 clusters randomised to the intervention arm received additional training and were provided with mRDTs. CHWs enrolled cases of suspected malaria, and the mRDT results and treatments were compared to blind-read PCR diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 256 CHWs enrolled 2400 patients with 2154 (89.8%) evaluated. In the intervention arm, 75.3% (828/1099) were treated appropriately vs. 17.5% (185/1055) in the control arm (cluster adjusted risk ratio: 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.40-5.77; p < 0.001). In the control arm, 85.9% (164/191) with confirmed Plasmodium vivax received chloroquine compared to 45.1% (70/155) in the intervention arm (p < 0.001). Overuse of chloroquine in the control arm resulted in 87.6% (813/928) of those with no malaria (PCR negative) being treated vs. 10.0% (95/947) in the intervention arm, p < 0.001. In the intervention arm, 71.4% (30/42) of patients with P. falciparum did not receive artemisinin-based combination therapy, partly because operational sensitivity of the RDTs was low (53.2%, 38.1-67.9). There was high concordance between recorded RDT result and CHW prescription decisions: 826/950 (87.0%) with a negative test were not prescribed an antimalarial. Co-trimoxazole was prescribed to 62.7% of malaria negative patients in the intervention arm and 15.0% in the control arm. CONCLUSIONS: While introducing mRDT reduced overuse of antimalarials, this action came with risks that need to be considered before use at scale: an appreciable proportion of malaria cases will be missed by those using current mRDTs. Higher sensitivity tests could be used to detect all cases. Overtreatment with antimalarial drugs in the control arm was replaced with increased antibiotic prescription in the intervention arm, resulting in a probable overuse of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01403350 . Prospectively registered.

Towards a strategy for malaria in pregnancy in Afghanistan: analysis of clinical realities and women's perceptions of malaria and anaemia.

BACKGROUND: Afghanistan has some of the worst maternal and infant mortality indicators in the world and malaria is a significant public health concern. Study objectives were to assess prevalence of malaria and anaemia, related knowledge and practices, and malaria prevention barriers among pregnant women in eastern Afghanistan. METHODS: Three studies were conducted: (1) a clinical survey of maternal malaria, maternal anaemia, and neonatal birthweight in a rural district hospital delivery-ward; (2) a case-control study of malaria risk among reproductive-age women attending primary-level clinics; and (3) community surveys of malaria and anaemia prevalence, socioeconomic status, malaria knowledge and reported behaviour among pregnant women. RESULTS: Among 517 delivery-ward participants (1), one malaria case (prevalence 1.9/1000), 179 anaemia cases (prevalence 346/1000), and 59 low-birthweight deliveries (prevalence 107/1000) were detected. Anaemia was not associated with age, gravidity, intestinal parasite prevalence, or low-birthweight at delivery. Among 141 malaria cases and 1010 controls (2), no association was found between malaria infection and pregnancy (AOR 0.89; 95 % CI 0.57-1.39), parity (AOR 0.95; 95 % CI 0.85-1.05), age (AOR 1.02; 95 % CI 1.00-1.04), or anaemia (AOR 1.00; 95 % CI 0.65-1.54). Those reporting insecticide-treated net usage had 40 % reduced odds of malaria infection (AOR 0.60; 95 % CI 0.40-0.91). Among 530 community survey participants (3), malaria and anaemia prevalence were 3.9/1000 and 277/1000 respectively, with 34/1000 experiencing severe anaemia. Despite most women having no formal education, malaria knowledge was high. Most expressed reluctance to take malaria preventive medication during pregnancy, deeming it potentially unsafe. CONCLUSIONS: Given the low malaria risk and reported avoidance of medication during pregnancy, intermittent preventive treatment is hard to justify or implement. Preventive strategy should instead focus on long-lasting insecticidal nets for all pregnant women.

Cost-effectiveness of malaria diagnosis using rapid diagnostic tests compared to microscopy or clinical symptoms alone in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Improving access to parasitological diagnosis of malaria is a central strategy for control and elimination of the disease. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are relatively easy to perform and could be used in primary level clinics to increase coverage of diagnostics and improve treatment of malaria. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken of RDT-based diagnosis in public health sector facilities in Afghanistan comparing the societal and health sector costs of RDTs versus microscopy and RDTs versus clinical diagnosis in low and moderate transmission areas. The effect measure was 'appropriate treatment for malaria' defined using a reference diagnosis. Effects were obtained from a recent trial of RDTs in 22 public health centres with cost data collected directly from health centres and from patients enrolled in the trial. Decision models were used to compare the cost of RDT diagnosis versus the current diagnostic method in use at the clinic per appropriately treated case (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER). RESULTS: RDT diagnosis of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in patients with uncomplicated febrile illness had higher effectiveness and lower cost compared to microscopy and was cost-effective across the moderate and low transmission settings. RDTs remained cost-effective when microscopy was used for other clinical purposes. In the low transmission setting, RDTs were much more effective than clinical diagnosis (65.2% (212/325) vs 12.5% (40/321)) but at an additional cost (ICER) of US$4.5 per appropriately treated patient including a health sector cost (ICER) of US$2.5 and household cost of US$2.0. Sensitivity analysis, which varied drug costs, indicated that RDTs would remain cost-effective if artemisinin combination therapy was used for treating both P. vivax and P. falciparum. Cost-effectiveness of microscopy relative to RDT is further reduced if the former is used exclusively for malaria diagnosis. In the health service setting of Afghanistan, RDTs are a cost-effective intervention compared to microscopy. CONCLUSIONS: RDTs remain cost-effective across a range of drug costs and if microscopy is used for a range of diagnostic services. RDTs have significant advantages over clinical diagnosis with minor increases in the cost of service provision. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT00935688.

Global and local genetic diversity at two microsatellite loci in Plasmodium vivax parasites from Asia, Africa and South America.

BACKGROUND: Even though Plasmodium vivax has the widest worldwide distribution of the human malaria species and imposes a serious impact on global public health, the investigation of genetic diversity in this species has been limited in comparison to Plasmodium falciparum. Markers of genetic diversity are vital to the evaluation of drug and vaccine efficacy, tracking of P. vivax outbreaks, and assessing geographical differentiation between parasite populations. METHODS: The genetic diversity of eight P. vivax populations (n=543) was investigated by using two microsatellites (MS), m1501 and m3502, chosen because of their seven and eight base-pair (bp) repeat lengths, respectively. These were compared with published data of the same loci from six other P. vivax populations. RESULTS: In total, 1,440 P. vivax samples from 14 countries on three continents were compared. There was highest heterozygosity within Asian populations, where expected heterozygosity (He) was 0.92-0.98, and alleles with a high repeat number were more common. Pairwise FST revealed significant differentiation between most P. vivax populations, with the highest divergence found between Asian and South American populations, yet the majority of the diversity (~89%) was found to exist within rather than between populations. CONCLUSIONS: The MS markers used were informative in both global and local P. vivax population comparisons and their seven and eight bp repeat length facilitated population comparison using data from independent studies. A complex spatial pattern of MS polymorphisms among global P. vivax populations was observed which has potential utility in future epidemiological studies of the P. vivax parasite.

Primaquine for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in children younger than 15 years: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine, the only widely available treatment to prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria, is produced as 15 mg tablets, and new paediatric formulations are being developed. To inform the optimal primaquine dosing regimen for children, we aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of different primaquine dose strategies in children younger than 15 years. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review (Jan 1, 2000-July 26, 2024) for P vivax efficacy studies with at least one treatment group that was administered primaquine over multiple days, that enrolled children younger than 15 years, that followed up patients for at least 28 days, and that had data available for inclusion by June 30, 2022. Patients were excluded if they were aged 15 years or older, presented with severe malaria, received adjunctive antimalarials within 14 days of diagnosis, commenced primaquine more than 7 days after starting schizontocidal treatment, had a protocol violation in the original study, or were missing data on age, sex, or primaquine dose. Available individual patient data were collated and standardised. To evaluate efficacy, the risk of recurrent P vivax parasitaemia between days 7 and 180 was assessed by time-to-event analysis for different total mg/kg primaquine doses (low total dose of ∼3·5 mg/kg and high total dose of ∼7 mg/kg). To evaluate tolerability and safety, the following were assessed by daily mg/kg primaquine dose (low daily dose of ∼0·25 mg/kg, intermediate daily dose of ∼0·5 mg/kg, and high daily dose of ∼1 mg/kg): gastrointestinal symptoms (vomiting, anorexia, or diarrhoea) on days 5-7, haemoglobin decrease of at least 25% to less than 7g/dL (severe haemolysis), absolute change in haemoglobin from day 0 to days 2-3 or days 5-7, and any serious adverse events within 28 days. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021278085. FINDINGS: In total, 3514 children from 27 studies and 15 countries were included. The cumulative incidence of recurrence by day 180 was 51·4% (95% CI 47·0-55·9) following treatment without primaquine, 16·0% (12·4-20·3) following a low total dose of primaquine, and 10·2% (8·4-12·3) following a high total dose of primaquine. The hazard of recurrent P vivax parasitaemia in children younger than 15 years was reduced following primaquine at low total doses (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·17, 95% CI 0·11-0·25) and high total doses (0·09, 0·07-0·12), compared with no primaquine. In 525 children younger than 5 years, the relative rates of recurrence were also reduced, with an adjusted HR of 0·33 (95% CI 0·18-0·59) for a low total dose and 0·13 (0·08-0·21) for a high total dose of primaquine compared with no primaquine. The rate of recurrence following a high total dose was reduced compared with a low dose in children younger than 15 years (adjusted HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·35-0·85) and children younger than 5 years (0·41, 0·21-0·78). Compared with no primaquine, children treated with any dose of primaquine had a greater risk of gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 after adjustment for confounders, with adjusted risks of 3·9% (95% CI 0-8·6) in children not treated with primaquine, 9·2% (0-18·7) with a low daily dose of primaquine, 6·8% (1·7-12·0) with an intermediate daily dose of primaquine, and 9·6% (4·8-14·3) with a high daily dose of primaquine. In children with 30% or higher glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity, there were few episodes of severe haemolysis following no primaquine (0·4%, 95% CI 0·1-1·5), a low daily dose (0·0%, 0·0-1·6), an intermediate daily dose (0·5%, 0·1-1·4), or a high daily dose (0·7%, 0·2-1·9). Of 15 possibly drug-related serious adverse events in children, two occurred following a low, four following an intermediate, and nine following a high daily dose of primaquine. INTERPRETATION: A high total dose of primaquine was highly efficacious in reducing recurrent P vivax parasitaemia in children compared with a low dose, particularly in children younger than 5 years. In children treated with high and intermediate daily primaquine doses compared with low daily doses, there was no increase in gastrointestinal symptoms or haemolysis (in children with 30% or higher G6PD activity), but there were more serious adverse events. FUNDING: Medicines for Malaria Venture, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Prevalence and molecular basis of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in Afghan populations: implications for treatment policy in the region.

BACKGROUND: Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PD), an x-linked inherited enzymopathy, is a barrier to malaria control because primaquine cannot be readily applied for radical cure in individuals with the condition. In endemic areas, including in Afghanistan, the G6PD status of vivax patients is not routinely determined so the drug is rarely, if ever, prescribed even though it is included as a recommended treatment in local, regional and global guidelines. This study assessed the prevalence and genotype of G6PD deficiency in Afghan populations and examined the need for routine G6PD testing as a malaria treatment and control tool. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted using random sampling in five Afghan cities to determine the prevalence of G6PD deficiency in Afghan ethnic groups. Filter-paper blood spots were analysed for phenotypic G6PD deficiency using a fluorescent spot test. Molecular analysis was conducted to identify the genetic basis of the disorder. RESULTS: Overall, 45/1,436 (3.1%) people were G6PD deficient, 36/728 (5.0%) amongst males and 9/708 (1.3%) amongst females. Amongst males the prevalence was highest in the Pashtun ethnic group (10%, 26/260) while in Tajik males it was 8/250 (3.2%); in Hazara males it was 1/77 (1.3%) and in Uzbek males is was 0/125. Genetic testing in those with deficiency showed that all were of the Mediterranean type (Med-) characterized by a C-T change at codon 563 of the G6PD gene. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of G6PD deficiency in Afghanistan varies considerably by ethnic group and is predominantly of the Mediterranean type. G6PD deficient individuals are susceptible to potentially severe and life-threatening haemolysis after standard primaquine treatment. If the aim of increasing access to radical treatment of vivax is to be successful reliable G6PD testing needs to be made routinely available within the health system.

Malaria "diagnosis" and diagnostics in Afghanistan.

In many malaria-endemic areas, including Afghanistan, overdiagnosis of malaria is common. Even when using parasite-based diagnostic tests prior to treatment, clinicians commonly prescribe antimalarial treatment following negative test results. This practice neglects alternative causes of fever, uses drugs unnecessarily, and might contribute to antimalarial drug resistance. We undertook a qualitative study among health workers using different malaria diagnostic methods in Afghanistan to explore perceptions of malaria diagnosis. Health workers valued diagnostic tests for their ability to confirm clinical suspicions of malaria via a positive result, but a negative result was commonly interpreted as an absence of diagnosis, legitimizing clinical diagnosis of malaria and prescription of antimalarial drugs. Prescribing decisions reflected uncertainty around tests and diagnosis, and were influenced by social- and health-system factors. Study findings emphasize the need for nuanced and context-specific guidance to change prescriber behavior and improve treatment of malarial and nonmalarial febrile illnesses.

Safety and efficacy of primaquine in patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria from South Asia: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal dosing of primaquine to prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Asia remains unclear. We investigated the efficacy and safety of different primaquine regimens to prevent P. vivax relapse. METHODS: A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies from South Asia published between 1 January 2000 and 23 August 2021. In a one-stage meta-analysis of available individual patient data, the cumulative risks of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 and 180 were assessed by primaquine total mg/kg dose and duration. The risk of recurrence by day 180 was also determined in a two-stage meta-analysis. Patients with a >25% drop in haemoglobin to <70 g/L, or an absolute drop of >50 g/L between days 1 and 14 were categorised by daily mg/kg primaquine dose. RESULTS: In 791 patients from 7 studies in the one-stage meta-analysis, the day 180 cumulative risk of recurrence was 61.1% (95% CI 42.2% to 80.4%; 201 patients; 25 recurrences) after treatment without primaquine, 28.8% (95% CI 8.2% to 74.1%; 398 patients; 4 recurrences) following low total (2 to <5 mg/kg) and 0% (96 patients; 0 recurrences) following high total dose primaquine (≥5 mg/kg). In the subsequent two-stage meta-analysis of nine studies (3529 patients), the pooled proportions of P. vivax recurrences by day 180 were 12.1% (95% CI 7.7% to 17.2%), 2.3% (95% CI 0.3% to 5.4%) and 0.7% (95% CI 0% to 6.1%), respectively. No patients had a >25% drop in haemoglobin to <70 g/L. CONCLUSIONS: Primaquine treatment led to a marked decrease in P. vivax recurrences following low (~3.5 mg/kg) and high (~7 mg/kg) total doses, with no reported severe haemolytic events. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022313730.

Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a highly pathogenic virus for which a safe and effective vaccine is not yet available, despite being considered a priority emerging pathogen. Understanding transmission patterns and the use of potential effective vaccines are central elements of the future plan against this infection. METHODS: We developed a series of models of transmission amongst livestock, and spillover infection into humans. We use real-world human and animal data from a CCHFV endemic area in Afghanistan (Herat) to calibrate our models. We assess the value of environmental drivers as proxy indicators of vector activity, and select the best model using deviance information criteria. Finally we assess the impact of vaccination by simulating campaigns targeted to humans or livestock, and to high-risk subpopulations (i.e, farmers). FINDINGS: Saturation deficit is the indicator that better explains tick activity trends in Herat. Recent increments in reported CCHFV cases in this area are more likely explained by increased surveillance capacity instead of changes in the background transmission dynamics. Modelling suggests that clinical cases only represent 31% (95% CrI 28%-33%) of total infections in this area. Vaccination campaigns targeting humans would result in a much larger impact than livestock vaccination (266 vs 31 clinical cases averted respectively) and a more efficient option when assessed in courses per case averted (35 vs 431 respectively). Targeted vaccination of farmers is impactful and more efficient, resulting in 19 courses per case averted (95% CrI 7-62) compared to targeting the general population (35 courses 95% CrI 16-107). CONCLUSIONS: CCHFV is endemic in Herat, and transmission cycles are well predicted by environmental drivers like saturation deficit. Vaccinating humans is likely to be more efficient and impactful than animals, and importantly targeted interventions to high risk groups like farmers can offer a more efficient approach to vaccine roll-out.

Vaccine efficacy trials for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: Insights from modelling different epidemiological settings.

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a priority emerging pathogen for which a licensed vaccine is not yet available. We aim to assess the feasibility of conducting phase III vaccine efficacy trials and the role of varying transmission dynamics. METHODS: We calibrate models of CCHF virus (CCHFV) transmission among livestock and spillover to humans in endemic areas in Afghanistan, Turkey and South Africa. We propose an individual randomised controlled trial targeted to high-risk population, and use the calibrated models to simulate trial cohorts to estimate the minimum necessary number of cases (trial endpoints) to analyse a vaccine with a minimum efficacy of 60%, under different conditions of sample size and follow-up time in the three selected settings. RESULTS: A mean follow-up of 160,000 person-month (75,000-550,000) would be necessary to accrue the required 150 trial endpoints for a target vaccine efficacy of 60 % and clinically defined endpoint, in a setting like Herat, Afghanistan. For Turkey, the same would be achieved with a mean follow-up of 175,000 person-month (50,000-350,000). The results suggest that for South Africa the low endemic transmission levels will not permit achieving the necessary conditions for conducting this trial within a realistic follow-up time. In the scenario of CCHFV vaccine trial designed to capture infection as opposed to clinical case as a trial endpoint, the required person-months is reduced by 70 % to 80 % in Afghanistan and Turkey, and in South Africa, a trial becomes feasible for a large number of person-months of follow-up (>600,000). Increased expected vaccine efficacy > 60 % will reduce the required number of trial endpoints and thus the sample size and follow-time in phase III trials. CONCLUSIONS: Underlying endemic transmission levels will play a central role in defining the feasibility of phase III vaccine efficacy trials. Endemic settings in Afghanistan and Turkey offer conditions under which such studies could feasibly be conducted.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Afghanistan, 2009.

In response to an outbreak of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in western Afghanistan, we measured immunoglobulin G seroprevalence among household members and their animals. Seroprevalence was 11.2% and 75.0% in humans (n = 330) and livestock (n = 132), respectively. Persons with frequent exposure to cattle had an elevated risk of being immunoglobulin G positive.

Field trial of three different Plasmodium vivax-detecting rapid diagnostic tests with and without evaporative cool box storage in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Accurate parasitological diagnosis of malaria is essential for targeting treatment where more than one species coexist. In this study, three rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) (AccessBio CareStart (CSPfPan), CareStart PfPv (CSPfPv) and Standard Diagnostics Bioline (SDBPfPv)) were evaluated for their ability to detect natural Plasmodium vivax infections in a basic clinic setting. The potential for locally made evaporative cooling boxes (ECB) to protect the tests from heat damage in high summer temperatures was also investigated. METHODS: Venous blood was drawn from P. vivax positive patients in Jalalabad, Afghanistan and tested against a panel of six RDTs. The panel comprised two of each test type; one group was stored at room temperature and the other in an ECB. RDT results were evaluated against a consensus gold standard based on two double-read reference slides and PCR. The sensitivity, specificity and a measure of global performance for each test were determined and stratified by parasitaemia level and storage condition. RESULTS: In total, 306 patients were recruited, of which 284 were positive for P. vivax, one for Plasmodium malariae and none for Plasmodium falciparum; 21 were negative. All three RDTs were specific for malaria. The sensitivity and global performance index for each test were as follows: CSPfPan [98.6%, 95.1%], CSPfPv [91.9%, 90.5%] and SDBPfPv [96.5%, 82.9%], respectively. CSPfPv was 16% less sensitive to a parasitaemia below 5,000/µL. Room temperature storage of SDBPfPv led to a high proportion of invalid results (17%), which reduced to 10% in the ECB. Throughout the testing period, the ECB maintained ~8°C reduction over ambient temperatures and never exceeded 30°C. CONCLUSIONS: Of the three RDTs, the CSPfPan test was the most consistent and reliable, rendering it appropriate for this P. vivax predominant region. The CSPfPv test proved unsuitable owing to its reduced sensitivity at a parasitaemia below 5,000/µL (affecting 43% of study samples). Although the SDBPfPv device was more sensitive than the CSPfPv test, its invalid rate was unacceptably high. ECB storage reduced the proportion of invalid results for the SDBPfPv test, but surprisingly had no impact on RDT sensitivity at low parasitaemia.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care C-Reactive Protein test compared to current clinical practice as an intervention to improve antibiotic prescription in malaria-negative patients in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health problem requiring a reduction in inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. Point-of-Care C-Reactive Protein (POCCRP) tests could distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes of fever in malaria-negative patients and thus reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. However, the cost-effectiveness of POCCRP testing is unclear in low-income settings. METHODS: A decision tree model was used to estimate cost-effectiveness of POCCRP versus current clinical practice at primary healthcare facilities in Afghanistan. Data were analysed from healthcare delivery and societal perspectives. Costs were reported in 2019 USD. Effectiveness was measured as correctly treated febrile malaria-negative patient. Cost, effectiveness and diagnostic accuracy parameters were obtained from primary data from a cost-effectiveness study on malaria rapid diagnostic tests in Afghanistan and supplemented with POCCRP-specific data sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) reported the additional cost per additional correctly treated febrile malaria-negative patient over a 28-day time horizon. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the impact of uncertainty of parameter inputs. Scenario analysis included economic cost of AMR per antibiotic prescription. RESULTS: The model predicts that POCCRP intervention would result in 137 fewer antibiotic prescriptions (6%) with a 12% reduction (279 prescriptions) in inappropriate prescriptions compared to current clinical practice. ICERs were $14.33 (healthcare delivery), $11.40 (societal), and $9.78 (scenario analysis) per additional correctly treated case. CONCLUSIONS: POCCRP tests could improve antibiotic prescribing among malaria-negative patients in Afghanistan. Cost-effectiveness depends in part on willingness to pay for reductions in inappropriate antibiotic prescribing that will only have modest impact on immediate clinical outcomes but may have long-term benefits in reducing overuse of antibiotics. A reduction in the overuse of antibiotics is needed and POCCRP tests may add to other interventions in achieving this aim. Assessment of willingness to pay among policy makers and donors and undertaking operational trials will help determine cost-effectiveness and assist decision making.

The impact of phenotypic and genotypic G6PD deficiency on risk of plasmodium vivax infection: a case-control study amongst Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The most common form of malaria outside Africa, Plasmodium vivax, is more difficult to control than P. falciparum because of the latent liver hypnozoite stage, which causes multiple relapses and provides an infectious reservoir. The African (A-) G6PD (glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase) deficiency confers partial protection against severe P. falciparum. Recent evidence suggests that the deficiency also confers protection against P. vivax, which could explain its wide geographical distribution in human populations. The deficiency has a potentially serious interaction with antirelapse therapies (8-aminoquinolines such as primaquine). If the level of protection was sufficient, antirelapse therapy could become more widely available. We therefore tested the hypothesis that G6PD deficiency is protective against vivax malaria infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A case-control study design was used amongst Afghan refugees in Pakistan. The frequency of phenotypic and genotypic G6PD deficiency in individuals with vivax malaria was compared against controls who had not had malaria in the previous two years. Phenotypic G6PD deficiency was less common amongst cases than controls (cases: 4/372 [1.1%] versus controls 42/743 [5.7%]; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.18 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06-0.52], p = 0.001). Genetic analysis demonstrated that the G6PD deficiency allele identified (Mediterranean type) was associated with protection in hemizygous deficient males (AOR = 0.12 [95% CI 0.02-0.92], p = 0.041). The deficiency was also protective in females carrying the deficiency gene as heterozygotes or homozygotes (pooled AOR = 0.37 [95% CI 0.15-0.94], p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: G6PD deficiency (Mediterranean type) conferred significant protection against vivax malaria infection in this population whether measured by phenotype or genotype, indicating a possible evolutionary role for vivax malaria in the selective retention of the G6PD deficiency trait in human populations. Further work is required on the genotypic protection associated with other types of G6PD deficiency and on developing simple point-of-care technologies to detect it before administering antirelapse therapy.

Amodiaquine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan is associated with the pfcrt SVMNT allele at codons 72 to 76.

Mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum genes pfcrt and pfmdr1 are selected by amodiaquine treatment in Africa. To examine the importance of these mutations in amodiaquine-treated Asian parasites, we determined pre- and posttreatment genotypes for amodiaquine treatment failures from a clinical trial in Afghanistan. The pfcrt codon 72 to 76 haplotype SVMNT was present in all samples tested, both before and after treatment. Amodiaquine did not clearly select for any pfmdr1 genotype, but a novel mutation, pfmdr1 N86F, was detected in four samples. We provide in vivo data to support the in vitro correlation between pfcrt SVMNT and increased resistance to the metabolite of amodiaquine.

Epidemic of Plasmodium falciparum malaria involving substandard antimalarial drugs, Pakistan, 2003.

Because of instability in eastern Afghanistan, new refugees crossed into the federally administered tribal areas of northwestern Pakistan in 2002. In 2003, we investigated an epidemic of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 1 of the camps. Incidence was 100.4 cases/1,000 person-years; in other nearby camps it was only 2.1/1,000 person-years. Anopheline mosquitoes were found despite an earlier spray campaign. Documented clinical failures at the basic health unit prompted a drug resistance survey of locally manufactured sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine used for routine treatment. The in vivo failure rate was 28.5%. PCR analysis of the P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase and dihyropteroate synthase genes showed no mutations associated with clinical failure. However, chemical analysis of the drug showed that it was substandard. As global incidence decreases and epidemics become more of a threat, enhanced quality assurance of control interventions is essential.