Clinically relevant gene signatures provide independent prognostic information in older breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of gene signatures in older breast cancer patients remains unclear. We aimed to determine signature prognostic capacity in this patient subgroup. METHODS: Research versions of the genomic grade index (GGI), 70-gene, recurrence score (RS), cell cycle score (CCS), PAM50 risk-of-recurrence proliferation (ROR-P), and PAM50 signatures were applied to 39 breast cancer datasets (N = 9583). After filtering on age ≥ 70 years, and the presence of estrogen receptor (ER) and survival data, 871 patients remained. Signature prognostic capacity was tested in all (n = 871), ER-positive/lymph node-positive (ER + /LN + , n = 335) and ER-positive/lymph node-negative (ER + /LN-, n = 374) patients using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard (PH) modelling. RESULTS: All signatures were statistically significant in Kaplan-Meier analysis of all patients (Log-rank P < 0.001). This significance remained in multivariable analysis (Cox-PH, P ≤ 0.05). In ER + /LN + patients all signatures except PAM50 were significant in Kaplan-Meier analysis (Log-rank P ≤ 0.05) and remained so in multivariable analysis (Cox-PH, P ≤ 0.05). In ER + /LN- patients all except RS were significant in Kaplan-Meier analysis (Log-rank P ≤ 0.05) but only the 70-gene, CCS, ROR-P, and PAM50 signatures remained so in multivariable analysis (Cox-PH, P ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We found that gene signatures provide prognostic information in survival analyses of all, ER + /LN + and ER + /LN- older (≥ 70 years) breast cancer patients, suggesting a potential role in aiding treatment decisions in older patients.

Clinical and molecular characteristics of estrogen receptor-positive ultralow risk breast cancer tumors identified by the 70-gene signature.

The metastatic potential of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers is heterogeneous and distant recurrences occur months to decades after primary diagnosis. We have previously shown that patients with tumors classified as ultralow risk by the 70-gene signature have a minimal long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Here, we evaluate the previously unexplored underlying clinical and molecular characteristics of ultralow risk tumors in 538 ER-positive patients from the Stockholm tamoxifen randomized trial (STO-3). Out of the 98 ultralow risk tumors, 89% were luminal A molecular subtype, whereas 26% of luminal A tumors were of ultralow risk. Compared to other ER-positive tumors, ultralow risk tumors were significantly (Fisher's test, P < .05) more likely to be of smaller tumor size, lower grade, progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2)-negative and have low Ki-67 levels (proliferation-marker). Moreover, ultralow risk tumors showed significantly lower expression scores of multi-gene modules associated with the AKT/mTOR-pathway, proliferation (AURKA), HER2/ERBB2-signaling, IGF1-pathway, PTEN-loss and immune response (IMMUNE1 and IMMUNE2) and higher expression scores of the PIK3CA-mutation-associated module. Furthermore, 706 genes were significantly (FDR < 0.001) differentially expressed in ultralow risk tumors, including lower expression of genes involved in immune response, PI3K/Akt/mTOR-pathway, histones, cell cycle, DNA repair, apoptosis and higher expression of genes coding for epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and homeobox proteins, among others. In conclusion, ultralow risk tumors, associated with minimal long-term risk of fatal disease, differ from other ER-positive tumors, including luminal A molecular subtype tumors. Identification of these characteristics is important to improve our prediction of nonfatal vs fatal breast cancer.

The long-term prognostic and predictive capacity of cyclin D1 gene amplification in 2305 breast tumours.

BACKGROUND: Use of cyclin D1 (CCND1) gene amplification as a breast cancer biomarker has been hampered by conflicting assessments of the relationship between cyclin D1 protein levels and patient survival. Here, we aimed to clarify its prognostic and treatment predictive potential through comprehensive long-term survival analyses. METHODS: CCND1 amplification was assessed using SNP arrays from two cohorts of 1965 and 340 patients with matching gene expression array and clinical follow-up data of over 15 years. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to determine survival differences between CCND1 amplified vs. non-amplified tumours in clinically relevant patient sets, within PAM50 subtypes and within treatment-specific subgroups. Boxplots and differential gene expression analyses were performed to assess differences between amplified vs. non-amplified tumours within PAM50 subtypes. RESULTS: When combining both cohorts, worse survival was found for patients with CCND1-amplified tumours in luminal A (HR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.15-2.46), luminal B (1.37; 1.01-1.86) and ER+/LN-/HER2- (1.66; 1.14-2.41) subgroups. In gene expression analysis, CCND1-amplified luminal A tumours showed increased proliferation (P < 0.001) and decreased progesterone (P = 0.002) levels along with a large overlap in differentially expressed genes when comparing luminal A and B-amplified vs. non-amplified tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that CCND1 amplification is associated with worse 15-year survival in ER+/LN-/HER2-, luminal A and luminal B patients. Moreover, luminal A CCND1-amplified tumours display gene expression changes consistent with a more aggressive phenotype. These novel findings highlight the potential of CCND1 to identify patients that could benefit from long-term treatment strategies.

Site-specific familial risk and survival of familial and sporadic head and neck cancer.

The vast majority of head and neck cancers (HNCs) are sporadic squamous cell carcinomas, smoking and heavy drinking being the main risk factors. However, little is known about the possible role of family history and the importance of inherited factors versus shared environment. We used Swedish population-based registries to study the family history of HNC. In order to estimate the risk for family members to get the same cancer, and the risk for cancer-specific death in patients with a family history of HNC compared with patients without a family history, multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed. A 1.43-fold increased risk for developing HNC in the first-degree relatives (FDRs) of HNC patients [hazard ratio (HR), 1.43; 95% CI, 1.28-1.61] was found, when compared with relatives of healthy controls. In spouses of patients with HNC, the risk for developing any HNC was moderately increased (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53), compared with spouses of healthy controls. In addition, a 1.34-fold increased risk for death of HNC was found in HNC patients with a family history of HNC (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, (1.03-1.73) compared with HNC patients without a family history. We found an increased risk for HNC in relatives and spouses of HNC patients, when compared with family members of healthy controls. This suggests that in addition to inherited factors, shared environmental factors have a significant role in the development of the cancer. Family history of HNC was associated with worse survival in a newly diagnosed HNC patient.

Long-term outcome in young women with breast cancer: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: Whether young age at diagnosis of breast cancer is an independent risk factor for death remains controversial, and the question whether young age should be considered in treatment decisions is still to be answered. METHODS: From a population-based cohort of 22,017 women with breast cancer, all women <35 years (n = 471) were compared to a random sample of 700 women aged 35-69 years from the same cohort. Information on patient and tumor characteristics, treatment, and follow-up was collected from the medical records. Tissue microarrays were produced for analysis of classical biomarkers. Breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) by age were compared using women 50-69 years as reference. RESULTS: At 10 years follow-up, women <35 years and 35-39 years had a worse BCSS [age <35 years 69 % (HR 2.75, 95 % CI 1.93-3.94), age 35-39 years 76 % (HR 2.33, 95 % CI 1.54-3.52), age 40-49 years 84 % (HR 1.53, 95 % CI 0.97-2.39), and age 50-69 years 89 % (reference)]. The worse BCSS was statistically significant in stages I-IIa and Luminal B tumors. At multivariate analysis age <35 years and 35-39 years confined a risk in LRFS (HR 2.13, 95 % CI 1.21-3.76 and HR 1.97, 95 % CI 1.06-3.68) but not in DDFS and BCSS. In the subgroup of women <40 years with luminal tumors stage I-IIa, low age remained an independent risk factor also in DDFS (HR 1.87, 95 % CI 1.03-3.44). CONCLUSION: Young women have a high risk of systemic disease even when diagnosed in an early stage. The excess risk of relapse is most pronounced in Luminal B tumors, where low age is an independent prognostic factor of DDFS and LRFS.

Prediction of breast cancer risk for sisters of women attending screening.

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is important for breast cancer prevention and early detection. We aimed to examine whether common risk factors, mammographic features, and breast cancer risk prediction scores of a woman were associated with breast cancer risk for her sisters. METHODS: We included 53 051 women from the Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer (KARMA) study. Established risk factors were derived using self-reported questionnaires, mammograms, and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. Using the Swedish Multi-Generation Register, we identified 32 198 sisters of the KARMA women (including 5352 KARMA participants and 26 846 nonparticipants). Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of breast cancer for both women and their sisters, respectively. RESULTS: A higher breast cancer polygenic risk score, a history of benign breast disease, and higher breast density in women were associated with an increased risk of breast cancer for both women and their sisters. No statistically significant association was observed between breast microcalcifications and masses in women and breast cancer risk for their sisters. Furthermore, higher breast cancer risk scores in women were associated with an increased risk of breast cancer for their sisters. Specifically, the hazard ratios for breast cancer per 1 standard deviation increase in age-adjusted KARMA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA), and Tyrer-Cuzick risk scores were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.27), 1.23 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.35), and 1.21 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.32), respectively. CONCLUSION: A woman's breast cancer risk factors are associated with her sister's breast cancer risk. However, the clinical utility of these findings requires further investigation.

Prognostic and Predictive Significance of Stromal Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes (sTILs) in ER-Positive/HER2-Negative Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Patients.

The clinical impact of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) is less known for breast cancer patients with the estrogen receptor-positive (ER+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor-negative (HER−) subtype. Here, we explored the prognostic and predictive value of TILs regarding distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in 763 postmenopausal patients randomized to receive tamoxifen vs. no systemic treatment. TILs were assessed in whole section tumor samples stained with H&E and divided into low (<10%), intermediate (10−39%), or high (≥40%). High TILs were associated with poor prognostic variables and good prognoses for all patients, but not within the ER+/HER2− group. Within the ER+/HER2− group, high gene expression of CD19 and PD-L1 and high IMMUNE1 score indicated good prognosis in multivariable analysis while high CD8 and CD19 gene expression and high IMMUNE1 score were associated with less tamoxifen benefit. These results indicate that within the ER+/HER2− subtype there could be subsets of patients where expression of specific TIL markers might be used to reveal candidates for immune therapy interventions upon failure of the endocrine therapy.

Reclassifying tumour cell cycle activity in terms of its tissue of origin.

Genomic alterations resulting in loss of control over the cell cycle is a fundamental hallmark of human malignancies. Whilst pan-cancer studies have broadly assessed tumour genomics and their impact on oncogenic pathways, analyses taking the baseline signalling levels in normal tissue into account are lacking. To this end, we aimed to reclassify the cell cycle activity of tumours in terms of their tissue of origin and determine if any common DNA mutations, chromosome arm-level changes or signalling pathways contribute to an increase in baseline corrected cell cycle activity. Combining normal tissue and pan-cancer data from over 13,000 samples we demonstrate that tumours of gynaecological origin show the highest levels of corrected cell cycle activity, partially owing to hormonal signalling and gene expression changes. We also show that normal and tumour tissues can be separated into groups (quadrants) of low/high cell cycle activity and propose the hypothesis of an upper limit on these activity levels in tumours.

Interval breast cancer is associated with interferon immune response.

BACKGROUND: The aggressive nature of breast cancers detected between planned mammographic screens, so-called interval cancers, remains elusive. Here, we aim to characterise underlying molecular features of interval cancer. METHODS: From 672 patients with invasive breast cancer, we analysed gene expression differences between 90 'true' interval cancer cases (i.e. women with low-dense breasts defined as per cent mammographic density <25%) and 310 screen-detected tumours while accounting for PAM50 subtypes and thus overall tumour aggressiveness. We computed an interval cancer gene expression profile (IC-Gx) in a total of 2270 breast tumours (regardless of interval cancer status) and tested for association with expression-based immune subtypes in breast cancer. In addition, we investigated the contribution of inherited and somatic genetic variants in distinct features of interval cancer. RESULTS: We identified 8331 genes nominally associated with interval cancer (P-value < 0.05, fold-change > 1.5). Gene set enrichment analysis showed immune-related pathways as key processes altered in interval cancer. Our IC-Gx, based on 47 genes with the strongest associations (false discovery rate < 0.05), was found to be associated mainly with immune subtypes involving interferon response. We isolated an interaction network of interval cancer and interferon genes for which a significant load of somatic and germline variants in class I interferon genes was observed. CONCLUSION: We identified novel molecular features of interval breast cancer highlighting interferon pathways as a potential target for prevention or treatment.

Twenty-Year Benefit From Adjuvant Goserelin and Tamoxifen in Premenopausal Patients With Breast Cancer in a Controlled Randomized Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: To assess the long-term (20-year) endocrine therapy benefit in premenopausal patients with breast cancer. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the Stockholm trial (STO-5, 1990-1997) randomly assigning 924 premenopausal patients to 2 years of goserelin (3.6 mg subcutaneously once every 28 days), tamoxifen (40 mg orally once daily), combined goserelin and tamoxifen, or no adjuvant endocrine therapy (control) is performed. Random assignment was stratified by lymph node status; lymph node-positive patients (n = 459) were allocated to standard chemotherapy (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil). Primary tumor immunohistochemistry (n = 731) and gene expression profiling (n = 586) were conducted in 2020. The 70-gene signature identified genomic low-risk and high-risk patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis, multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, and multivariable time-varying flexible parametric modeling assessed the long-term distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). Swedish high-quality registries allowed a complete follow-up of 20 years. RESULTS: In estrogen receptor-positive patients (n = 584, median age 47 years), goserelin, tamoxifen, and the combination significantly improved long-term distant recurrence-free interval compared with control (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.75, HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.87, and HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.94, respectively). Significant goserelin-tamoxifen interaction was observed (P = .016). Genomic low-risk patients (n = 305) significantly benefitted from tamoxifen (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.60), and genomic high-risk patients (n = 158) from goserelin (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.54). Increased risk from the addition of tamoxifen to goserelin was seen in genomic high-risk patients (HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.39 to 8.07). Moreover, long-lasting 20-year tamoxifen benefit was seen in genomic low-risk patients, whereas genomic high-risk patients had early goserelin benefit. CONCLUSION: This study shows 20-year benefit from 2 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy in estrogen receptor-positive premenopausal patients and suggests differential treatment benefit on the basis of tumor genomic characteristics. Combined goserelin and tamoxifen therapy showed no benefit over single treatment. Long-term follow-up to assess treatment benefit is critical.

Characterization of Benign Breast Diseases and Association With Age, Hormonal Factors, and Family History of Breast Cancer Among Women in Sweden.

Importance: Benign breast diseases (BBDs) are common and associated with breast cancer risk, yet the etiology and risk of BBDs have not been extensively studied. Objective: To investigate the risk of BBDs by age, hormonal factors, and family history of breast cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study assessed 70 877 women from the population-based Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer (KARMA) who attended mammographic screening or underwent clinical mammography from January 1, 2011, to March 31, 2013, at 4 Swedish hospitals. Participants took part in a comprehensive questionnaire on recruitment. All participants had complete follow-up through high-quality Swedish national registers until December 31, 2015. Pathology medical records on breast biopsies were obtained for the participants, and BBD subtypes were classified according to the latest European guidelines. Analyses were conducted from January 1 to July 31, 2020. Exposures: Hormonal risk factors and family history of breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: For each BBD subtype, incidence rates (events per 100 000 person-years) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards ratios (HRs) with time-varying covariates were estimated between the ages of 25 and 69 years. Results: A total of 61 617 women within the mammographic screening age of 40 to 69 years (median age, 53 years) at recruitment with available questionnaire data were included in the study. Incidence rates and risk estimates varied by age and BBD subtype. At premenopausal ages, nulliparity (compared with parity ≥3) was associated with reduced risk of epithelial proliferation without atypia (EP; HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.85) but increased risk of cysts (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.85). Current and long (≥8 years) oral contraceptive use was associated with reduced premenopausal risk of fibroadenoma (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.47-0.90), whereas hormone replacement therapy was associated with increased postmenopausal risks of epithelial proliferation with atypia (EPA; HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.07-3.07), fibrocystic changes (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.03-2.48), and cysts (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.40-2.81). Furthermore, predominantly at premenopausal ages, obesity was associated with reduced risk of several BBDs (eg, EPA: HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.17-0.56), whereas family history of breast cancer was associated with increased risk (eg, EPA: HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.48-3.00). Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that the risk of BBDs varies by subtype, hormonal factors, and family history of breast cancer and is influenced by age. Better understanding of BBDs is important to improve the understanding of benign and malignant breast diseases.

Assessment of 25-Year Survival of Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive/ERBB2-Negative Breast Cancer Treated With and Without Tamoxifen Therapy: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the Stockholm Tamoxifen Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Clinically used breast cancer markers, such as tumor size, tumor grade, progesterone receptor (PR) status, and Ki-67 status, are known to be associated with short-term survival, but the association of these markers with long-term (25-year) survival is unclear. Objective: To assess the association of clinically used breast cancer markers with long-term survival and treatment benefit among postmenopausal women with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor [ER]-positive and ERBB2-negative breast cancer who received tamoxifen therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study was a secondary analysis of data from a subset of 565 women with ER-positive/ERBB2-negative breast cancer who participated in the Stockholm tamoxifen (STO-3) randomized clinical trial. The STO-3 clinical trial was conducted from 1976 to 1990 and comprised 1780 postmenopausal women with lymph node-negative breast cancer who were randomized to receive adjuvant tamoxifen therapy or no endocrine therapy. Complete 25-year follow-up data through December 31, 2016, were obtained from Swedish national registers. Immunohistochemical markers were reannotated in 2014. Data were analyzed from April to December 2020. Interventions: Patients in the original STO-3 clinical trial were randomized to receive 2 years of tamoxifen therapy vs no endocrine therapy. In 1983, patients who received tamoxifen therapy without cancer recurrence during the 2-year treatment and who consented to continued participation in the STO-3 study were further randomized to receive 3 additional years of tamoxifen therapy or no endocrine therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) by clinically used breast cancer markers was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, period of primary diagnosis, tumor size (T1a and T1b [T1a/b], T1c, and T2), tumor grade (1-3), PR status (positive vs negative), Ki-67 status (low vs medium to high), and STO-3 clinical trial arm (tamoxifen treatment vs no adjuvant treatment). A recursive partitioning analysis was performed to evaluate which markers were able to best estimate long-term DRFI. Results: The study population comprised 565 postmenopausal women (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [5.3] years) with lymph node-negative, ER-positive/ERBB2-negative breast cancer. A statistically significant difference in long-term DRFI was observed by tumor size (88% for T1a/b vs 76% for T1c vs 63% for T2 tumors; log-rank P < .001) and tumor grade (81% for grade 1 vs 77% for grade 2 vs 65% for grade 3 tumors; log-rank P = .02) but not by PR status or Ki-67 status. Patients with smaller tumors (hazard ratio [HR], 0.31 [95% CI, 0.17-0.55] for T1a/b tumors and 0.58 [95% CI, 0.38-0.88] for T1c tumors) and grade 1 tumors (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24-0.95) experienced a significant reduction in the long-term risk of distant recurrence compared with patients with larger (T2) tumors and grade 3 tumors, respectively. A significant tamoxifen treatment benefit was observed among patients with larger tumors (HR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.32-0.89] for T1c tumors and 0.34 [95% CI, 0.16-0.73] for T2 tumors), lower tumor grades (HR, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.07-0.82] for grade 1 tumors and 0.50 [95% CI, 0.31-0.80] for grade 2 tumors), and PR-positive status (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.24-0.62). The recursive partitioning analysis revealed that tumor size was the most important characteristic associated with long-term survival, followed by clinical trial arm among patients with larger tumors. Conclusions and Relevance: This secondary analysis of data from the STO-3 clinical trial indicated that, among the selected subgroup of patients, tumor size followed by tumor grade were the markers most significantly associated with long-term survival. Furthermore, a significant long-term tamoxifen treatment benefit was observed among patients with larger tumors, lower tumor grades, and PR-positive tumors.

MCM3 upregulation confers endocrine resistance in breast cancer and is a predictive marker of diminished tamoxifen benefit.

Resistance to endocrine therapy in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer is a major clinical problem with poorly understood mechanisms. There is an unmet need for prognostic and predictive biomarkers to allow appropriate therapeutic targeting. We evaluated the mechanism by which minichromosome maintenance protein 3 (MCM3) influences endocrine resistance and its predictive/prognostic potential in ER+ breast cancer. We discovered that ER+ breast cancer cells survive tamoxifen and letrozole treatments through upregulation of minichromosome maintenance proteins (MCMs), including MCM3, which are key molecules in the cell cycle and DNA replication. Lowering MCM3 expression in endocrine-resistant cells restored drug sensitivity and altered phosphorylation of cell cycle regulators, including p53(Ser315,33), CHK1(Ser317), and cdc25b(Ser323), suggesting that the interaction of MCM3 with cell cycle proteins is an important mechanism of overcoming replicative stress and anti-proliferative effects of endocrine treatments. Interestingly, the MCM3 levels did not affect the efficacy of growth inhibitory by CDK4/6 inhibitors. Evaluation of MCM3 levels in primary tumors from four independent cohorts of breast cancer patients receiving adjuvant tamoxifen mono-therapy or no adjuvant treatment, including the Stockholm tamoxifen (STO-3) trial, showed MCM3 to be an independent prognostic marker adding information beyond Ki67. In addition, MCM3 was shown to be a predictive marker of response to endocrine treatment. Our study reveals a coordinated signaling network centered around MCM3 that limits response to endocrine therapy in ER+ breast cancer and identifies MCM3 as a clinically useful prognostic and predictive biomarker that allows personalized treatment of ER+ breast cancer patients.

A pan-cancer analysis of the frequency of DNA alterations across cell cycle activity levels.

Pan-cancer genomic analyses based on the magnitude of pathway activity are currently lacking. Focusing on the cell cycle, we examined the DNA mutations and chromosome arm-level aneuploidy within tumours with low, intermediate and high cell-cycle activity in 9515 pan-cancer patients with 32 different tumour types. Boxplots showed that cell-cycle activity varied broadly across and within all cancers. TP53 and PIK3CA mutations were common in all cell cycle score (CCS) tertiles but with increasing frequency as cell-cycle activity levels increased (P < 0.001). Mutations in BRAF and gains in 16p were less frequent in CCS High tumours (P < 0.001). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients whose tumours were CCS Low had a longer Progression Free Interval (PFI) relative to Intermediate or High (P < 0.001) and this significance remained in multivariable analysis (CCS Intermediate: HR = 1.37; 95% CI 1.17-1.60, CCS High: 1.54; 1.29-1.84, CCS Low = Ref). These results demonstrate that whilst similar DNA alterations can be found at all cell-cycle activity levels, some notable exceptions exist. Moreover, independent prognostic information can be derived on a pan-cancer level from a simple measure of cell-cycle activity.

Assessment of Long-term Distant Recurrence-Free Survival Associated With Tamoxifen Therapy in Postmenopausal Patients With Luminal A or Luminal B Breast Cancer.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer have a long-term risk for fatal disease. However, the tumor biological factors that influence the long-term risk and the benefit associated with endocrine therapy are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term survival from tamoxifen therapy for patients with luminal A or luminal B tumor subtype. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary analysis of patients from the Stockholm Tamoxifen (STO-3) trial conducted from 1976 to 1990, which randomized postmenopausal patients with lymph node-negative breast cancer to receive adjuvant tamoxifen or no endocrine therapy. Tumor tissue sections were assessed in 2014 using immunohistochemistry and Agilent microarrays. Only patients with luminal A or B subtype tumors were evaluated. Complete long-term follow-up data up to the end of the STO-3 trial on December 31, 2012, were obtained from the Swedish National registers. Data analysis for the secondary analysis was conducted in 2017 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized to receive at least 2 years of tamoxifen therapy or no endocrine therapy; patients without recurrence who reconsented were further randomized to 3 additional years of tamoxifen therapy or no endocrine therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) by luminal A and luminal B subtype and trial arm was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses and time-dependent flexible parametric models to estimate time-varying hazard ratios (HRs) that were adjusted for patient and tumor characteristics. RESULTS: In the STO-3 treated trial arm, 183 patients had luminal A tumors and 64 patients had luminal B tumors. In the untreated arm, 153 patients had luminal A tumors and 62 had luminal B tumors. Age at diagnosis ranged from 45 to 73 years. A statistically significant difference in DRFI by trial arm was observed (log rank, P < .001 [luminal A subtype, n = 336], P = .04 [luminal B subtype, n = 126]): the 25-year DRFI for luminal A vs luminal B subtypes was 87% (95% CI, 82%-93%) vs 67% (95% CI, 56%-82%) for treated patients, and 70% (95% CI, 62%-79%) vs 54% (95% CI, 42%-70%) for untreated patients, respectively. Patients with luminal A tumors significantly benefited from tamoxifen therapy for 15 years after diagnosis (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.94), and those with luminal B tumors benefited from tamoxifen therapy for 5 years (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.24-0.59). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Patients with luminal A subtype tumors had a long-term risk of distant metastatic disease, which was reduced by tamoxifen treatment, whereas patients with luminal B tumors had an early risk of distant metastatic disease, and tamoxifen benefit attenuated over time.

Familial concordance in cancer survival: a Swedish population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Nowadays, the fact that cancers can aggregate in families is generally accepted. The aim of this study was to complete a comprehensive analysis of cancer-survival concordance in parents and their children diagnosed with the same cancer. METHODS: We used a population-based Swedish family database, that included about three million families and data for more than a million individuals with cancer. We analysed survival in children in relation to parental survival by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. We then modelled the risk in children in relation to parental survival by use of two multivariate proportional hazard (Cox) models adjusting for possible confounders of survival. FINDINGS: In our univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis, children with the same cancer as their parent and whose parent had died within 10 years of diagnosis showed significantly worse survival for breast (log rank p=0.01), colorectal (p=0.04), and prostate cancer (p=0.05) than those whose parents were alive at 10 years from diagnosis. By use of Cox modelling, we noted an increased hazard ratio for death from cancer in children with poor parental survival compared with those with good parental survival for colorectal cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44 [95% CI 1.01-2.01]), lung cancer (1.39 [1.00-1.94]), breast cancer (1.75 [1.13-2.71]), ovarian cancer (2.23 [0.78-6.34]), and prostate cancer (2.07 [1.13-3.79]). All hazard-ratio estimates, except for ovarian cancer, were significant, with significant trends of increasing risk of death in children by degree of worsening survival outcome in parents defined in quartiles of survival (ie, good [best quartile], expected [middle two quartiles], or poor [worst quartile]). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that cancer-specific survival in parents predicts survival from the same cancer in their children. Consequently, data on survival in a parent might have the potential to guide treatment decisions and genetic counselling. Finally, molecular studies to highlight the genetic determinants of cancer survival are now warranted.

Feasibility of reusing time-matched controls in an overlapping cohort.

The methods developed for secondary analysis of nested case-control data have been illustrated only in simplified settings in a common cohort and have not found their way into biostatistical practice. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of reusing prior nested case-control data in a realistic setting where a new outcome is available in an overlapping cohort where no new controls were gathered and where all data have been anonymised. Using basic information about the background cohort and sampling criteria, the new cases and prior data are "aligned" to identify the common underlying study base. With this study base, a Kaplan-Meier table of the prior outcome extracts the risk sets required to calculate the weights to assign to the controls to remove the sampling bias. A weighted Cox regression, implemented in standard statistical software, provides unbiased hazard ratios. Using the method to compare cases of contralateral breast cancer to available controls from a prior study of metastases, we identified a multifocal tumor as a risk factor that has not been reported previously. We examine the sensitivity of the method to an imperfect weighting scheme and discuss its merits and pitfalls to provide guidance for its use in medical research studies.

Intratumor Heterogeneity of the Estrogen Receptor and the Long-term Risk of Fatal Breast Cancer.

Background: Breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease have a continuous long-term risk for fatal breast cancer, but the biological factors influencing this risk are unknown. We aimed to determine whether high intratumor heterogeneity of ER predicts an increased long-term risk (25 years) of fatal breast cancer. Methods: The STO-3 trial enrolled 1780 postmenopausal lymph node-negative breast cancer patients randomly assigned to receive adjuvant tamoxifen vs not. The fraction of cancer cells for each ER intensity level was scored by breast cancer pathologists, and intratumor heterogeneity of ER was calculated using Rao's quadratic entropy and categorized into high and low heterogeneity using a predefined cutoff at the second tertile (67%). Long-term breast cancer-specific survival analyses by intra-tumor heterogeneity of ER were performed using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. Results: A statistically significant difference in long-term survival by high vs low intratumor heterogeneity of ER was seen for all ER-positive patients (P < .001) and for patients with luminal A subtype tumors (P = .01). In multivariable analyses, patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had a twofold increased long-term risk as compared with patients with low intratumor heterogeneity (ER-positive: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31 to 3.00; luminal A subtype tumors: HR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.99). Conclusions: Patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had an increased long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Interestingly, a similar long-term risk increase was seen in patients with luminal A subtype tumors. Our findings suggest that intratumor heterogeneity of ER is an independent long-term prognosticator with potential to change clinical management, especially for patients with luminal A tumors.

Etiology of familial aggregation in melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin (SCC) have been previously shown to coaggregate in families. To shed light on the etiology, we estimated the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors on the occurrence of each disease, in addition to their influence on coaggregation of the two diseases. Because the malignancies are dependent on UV radiation, we did separate analyses for sun-covered and sun-exposed sites. METHODS: Our Swedish population-based data included 11 million individuals in 3 million families. We used an extended generalized linear mixed model to estimate the genetic and environmental contribution. RESULTS: In melanoma, the genetic contribution was 18% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 13-22%] in the all-sites analysis, whereas the family-shared contribution was slightly higher in the sun-covered compared with sun-exposed sites analysis. SCC revealed very similar estimates in all analyses for both the genetic effects estimated to 8% (95% CI, 4-12%) and family-shared environmental factors at 18% (95% CI, 16-19%), respectively. In the coaggregation analysis, genetic and family-shared environmental components were estimated at 47% (95% CI, 43-51%) and 36% (95% CI, 33-39%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic factors are important in familial aggregation of melanoma and the higher sun-covered compared with sun-exposed site estimate of family-shared environment may convey benefit from cautious sunbathing. In SCC, we observed the highest contribution of family-shared environmental effects in cancer to date, implicating the importance of familial habits. Moreover, we elucidate the potential involvement of genetic variability in the familial coaggregation of melanoma and SCC.