Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay.

Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.

Examining the life course sequence of intending to move and moving.

There is now a substantial body of research which examines the process of making decisions about moving. The questions of interest in that work and in this study using US data are, first, how do life course changes get translated into intentions to move, and second, to what extent are intentions realized or unrealized. This study extends previous work by considering a longer interval in the planning process, and by examining how life cycle changes create intentions, which in turn are translated, or not, into actual moves. We study the antecedents of the expressed intention to move and the outcomes which follow the expressed intention to move. We test the process of forming intentions and moving in the context of life course events and changes. We find that the subset of variables which create the intention to move vary subtly from the variables which create moves, though the triggering effects of family composition change are critical dimensions of both creating intentions and fulfilling those intentions by moving.