'Knowledge exchange' workshops to optimise development of a risk prediction tool to assist conveyance decisions for suspected seizures - Part of the Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project.

PURPOSE: Suspected seizures present challenges for ambulance services, with paramedics reporting uncertainty over whether or not to convey individuals to emergency departments. The Risk of ADverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS) project aims to address this by developing a risk assessment tool utilizing structured patient care record and dispatch data. It proposes a tool that would provide estimates of an individual's likelihood of death and/or recontact with emergency care within 3 days if conveyed compared to not conveyed, and the likelihood of an 'avoidable attendance' occurring if conveyed. Knowledge Exchange workshops engaged stakeholders to resolve key design uncertainties before model derivation. METHOD: Six workshops involved 26 service users and their significant others (epilepsy or nonepileptic attack disorder), and 25 urgent and emergency care clinicians from different English ambulance regions. Utilizing Nominal Group Techniques, participants shared views of the proposed tool, benefits and concerns, suggested predictors, critiqued outcome measures, and expressed functionality preferences. Data were analysed using Hamilton's Rapid Analysis. RESULTS: Stakeholders supported tool development, proposing 10 structured variables for predictive testing. Emphasis was placed on the tool supporting, not dictating, care decisions. Participants highlighted some reasons why RADOSS might struggle to derive a predictive model based on structured data alone and suggested some non-structured variables for future testing. Feedback on prediction timeframes for service recontact was received, along with advice on amending the 'avoidable attendance' definition to prevent the tool's predictions being undermined by potential overuse of certain investigations in hospital. CONCLUSION: Collaborative stakeholder engagement provided crucial insights that can guide RADOSS to develop a user-aligned, optimized tool.

The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances by care home residents are potentially avoidable. Health Call Digital Care Homes is an app-based technology that aims to streamline residents' care by recording their observations such as vital parameters electronically. Observations are triaged by remote clinical staff. This study assessed the effectiveness of the Health Call technology to reduce unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of health outcomes and economic impact based on an intervention. The study involved 118 care homes across the North East of UK from 2018 to 2021. Routinely collected NHS secondary care data from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust was linked with data from the Health Call app. Three outcomes were modelled monthly using Generalised Linear Mixed Models: counts of emergency attendances, emergency admissions and length of stay of emergency admissions. A similar approach was taken for costs. The impact of Health Call was tested on each outcome using the models. FINDINGS: Data from 8,702 residents were used in the analysis. Results show Health Call reduces the number of emergency attendances by 11% [6-15%], emergency admissions by 25% [20-39%] and length of stay by 11% [3-18%] (with an additional month-by-month decrease of 28% [24-34%]). The cost analysis found a cost reduction of £57 per resident in 2018, increasing to £113 in 2021. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of a digital technology, such as Health Call, could significantly reduce contacts with and costs resulting from unplanned secondary care usage by care home residents.

'In the shower crying but we came back in the following day and did it all again'. Distress and resilience in care home staff during the COVID-19 pandemic- A qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Care homes (long-term care facilities) were profoundly impacted early in the COVID-19 pandemic, both in terms of resident mortality and restrictions for infection control. This study investigated the impact on the emotional well-being of care home staff of challenges faced at this time, and the strategies used to manage them. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews conducted October 2020-June 2021 with care home staff and health service staff working with them explored the impact of the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-June 2021). Interview data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interview participants were 16 care home staff and 10 health service staff. Analysis generated four key themes: 1)Anxiety and distress, 2)Overwhelming workload, 3)Pulling through; and 4)Resilience in a time of crisis. Care home staff experienced Anxiety and distress due to uncertainty of what to expect; witnessing illness and deaths of residents; concerns regarding their own health, and sometimes feeling their work was under-recognised. They also experienced an Overwhelming workload due to infection control measures, caring for sick residents and reduction in external healthcare support. Our theme of Pulling through reflects the peer support and problem-solving strategies with which care home staff managed the impact of the pandemic, along with a sense of responsibility and meaning towards their work. An overarching theme of Resilience in a time of crisis drew on the other three themes and describes how many staff managed, maintained, and often increased their work despite the challenges of the pandemic. Participants also described increasing emotional fatigue as the pandemic continued. CONCLUSIONS: This paper builds on literature on the emotional impact of the pandemic on care home staff, also exploring ways that staff responded to this impact. These findings can help inform planning for future crises including disease outbreaks, and raise important questions for further work to develop pandemic preparedness in care homes and beyond. They also raise wider questions about the current cultural status of care work, which may have exposed care home staff to greater risk of distress, and which contrasts with the professionalism and responsibility shown by staff in response to pandemic challenges.

Understanding health service utilisation patterns for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic using routinely collected healthcare data.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare in care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic required a balance, providing treatment while minimising exposure risk. Policy for how residents should receive care changed rapidly throughout the pandemic. A lack of accessible data on care home residents over this time meant policy decisions were difficult to make and verify. This study investigates common patterns of healthcare utilisation for care home residents in relation to COVID-19 testing events, and associations between utilisation patterns and resident characteristics. METHODS: Datasets from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust including secondary care, community care and a care home telehealth app are linked by NHS number used to define daily healthcare utilisation sequences for care home residents. We derive four 10-day sets of sequences related to Pillar 1 COVID-19 testing; before [1] and after [2] a resident's first positive test and before [3] and after [4] a resident's first test. These sequences are clustered, grouping residents with similar healthcare patterns in each set. Association of individual characteristics (e.g. health conditions such as diabetes and dementia) with healthcare patterns are investigated. RESULTS: We demonstrate how routinely collected health data can be used to produce longitudinal descriptions of patient care. Clustered sequences [1,2,3,4] are produced for 3,471 care home residents tested between 01/03/2020-01/09/2021. Clusters characterised by higher levels of utilisation were significantly associated with higher prevalence of diabetes. Dementia is associated with higher levels of care after a testing event and appears to be correlated with a hospital discharge after a first test. Residents discharged from inpatient care within 10 days of their first test had the same mortality rate as those who stayed in hospital. CONCLUSION: We provide longitudinal, resident-level data on care home resident healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that vulnerable residents were associated with higher levels of healthcare usage despite the additional risks. Implications of findings are limited by the challenges of routinely collected data. However, this study demonstrates the potential for further research into healthcare pathways using linked, routinely collected datasets.

Changes in depression symptoms over 10 years after TBI; a long-term prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the prevalence and risk factors associated with depression symptoms at 10 years after traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare with results at 10 weeks and 1 year. METHODS: A large cohort of prospective admissions with TBI were followed up for 10 years. Depression using HADS (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) score > 8 was measured. Several injury and demographic features were examined for association with depression. RESULTS: Over 4 years, 1130 individuals were recruited of whom 916 attended at 1 year; after 10 years, 552 attended and 210 had died. 154 (17%) of the cohort was lost to follow-up. The prevalence of depression at 10 weeks was 56.3% [95%CI 52.2-60.5], at 1 year was 42.4% [95%CI 38.3-46.5] and 10 years 38.4% [95%CI 34.3-42.5]. There was considerable change in individual scores over time in both directions. A multivariable analysis identified the independent predictors of 10-year depression score as lower GCS, social deprivation, female gender, past psychiatric history, alcohol intoxication and unemployment. Age, ethnicity, social support, TBI etiology, CT abnormality and medical comorbidity were insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: While the overall level of symptoms at 10-year post-TBI remains high, there is considerable change in individual depression status over time. The predictors identified may allow the targeting of vulnerable sub-populations.

A qualitative study exploring the experiences of advanced clinical practitioner training in emergency care in the South West of England, United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Attempting to improve emergency care (EC) advanced clinical practitioner (ACP) training, Health Education England (HEE) South West (SW) implemented a pilot, whereby emergency departments (ED) were provided with enhanced funding and support to help ED consultants deliver teaching and supervision to EC ACPs to ensure more timely completion of EC ACP training compared with previous cohorts training in the region.We explored the experiences of trainee EC ACPs and consultant EC ACP leads working in EDs, which had implemented the new regional pilot. METHODS: We used a qualitative design to conduct semi-structured interviews with trainee EC ACPs and consultant EC ACP leads across five EDs that had implemented the HEE SW pilot. Interview data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Twenty-five people were interviewed. We identified four themes: (1) the master's in advanced practice could be better aligned with the Royal College of Emergency Medicine credentialling e-portfolio; (2) EC ACP training needs some flexibility to reflect the individual-'one size does not fit all'; (3) supervision and teaching were recognised as important but requires significant staff capacity that is impacted by external pressures and (4) unclear role expectations and responsibilities hinder role transition and impact role identity.It was notable that EC ACPs primarily spoke about the development of their clinical skills both academically and within the workplace, despite there being other skills mentioned in the multiprofessional framework for advanced practice (leadership and management, education and research). CONCLUSION: A clear supervision structure with protected time allocated for teaching and assessment of clinical skills within the ED is essential to facilitate trainee EC ACP progression. However, increasing demands on EDs make this a challenging goal to achieve. Role identity issues continue to persist despite the introduction of new guidance designed to provide more clarity around the ACP role.

Exploring advanced clinical practitioner perspectives on training, role identity and competence: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Advanced Clinical Practitioners (ACPs) are a new role that have been established to address gaps and support the existing medical workforce in an effort to help reduce increasing pressures on NHS services. ACPs have the potential to practice at a similar level to mid-grade medical staff, for example independently undertaking assessments, requesting and interpreting investigations, and diagnosing and discharging patients. These roles have been shown to improve both service outcomes and quality of patient care. However, there is currently no widespread formalised standard of training within the UK resulting in variations in the training experiences and clinical capabilities of ACPs. We sought to explore the training experiences of ACPs as well as their views on role identity and future development of the role. METHODS: Five online focus groups were conducted between March and May 2021 with trainee and qualified advanced clinical practitioners working in a range of healthcare settings, in the North of England. The focus groups aimed to explore the experiences of undertaking ACP training including supervision, gaining competence, role identity and career progression. Thematic analysis of the focus group transcripts was performed, informed by grounded theory principles. RESULTS: Fourteen advanced clinical practitioners participated. Analysis revealed that training was influenced by internal and external perceptions of the role, often acting as barriers, with structural aspects being significant contributory factors. Key themes identified (1) clinical training lacked structure and support, negatively impacting progress, (2) existing knowledge and experience acted as both an enabler and inhibitor, with implications for confidence, (3) the role and responsibilities are poorly understood by both advanced clinical practitioners and the wider medical profession and (4) advanced clinical practitioners recognised the value and importance of the role but felt changes were necessary, to provide security and sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate structure and support are crucial throughout the training process to enable staff to have a smooth transition to advanced level, ensuring they obtain the necessary confidence and competence. Structural changes and knowledge brokering are essential, particularly in relation to role clarity and its responsibilities, sufficient allocated time to learn and practice, role accreditation and continuous appropriate supervision.

Adolescent ethanol drinking promotes hyperalgesia, neuroinflammation and serotonergic deficits in mice that persist into adulthood.

Adolescent alcohol use can permanently alter brain function and lead to poor health outcomes in adulthood. Emerging evidence suggests that alcohol use can predispose individuals to pain disorders or exacerbate existing pain conditions, but the underlying neural mechanisms are currently unknown. Here we report that mice exposed to adolescent intermittent access to ethanol (AIE) exhibit increased pain sensitivity and depressive-like behaviors that persist for several weeks after alcohol cessation and are accompanied by elevated CD68 expression in microglia and reduced numbers of serotonin (5-HT)-expressing neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN). 5-HT expression was also reduced in the thalamus, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and amygdala as well as the lumbar dorsal horn of the spinal cord. We further demonstrate that chronic minocycline administration after AIE alleviated hyperalgesia and social deficits, while chemogenetic activation of microglia in the DRN of ethanol-naïve mice reproduced the effects of AIE on pain and social behavior. Chemogenetic activation of microglia also reduced tryptophan hydroxylase 2 (Tph2) expression and was negatively correlated with the number of 5-HT-immunoreactive cells in the DRN. Taken together, these results indicate that microglial activation in the DRN may be a primary driver of pain, negative affect, and 5-HT depletion after AIE.

Examining the effect of interventions in emergency care for older people using a system dynamics decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Rising demand for Emergency and Urgent Care is a major international issue and outcomes for older people remain sub-optimal. Embarking upon large-scale service development is costly in terms of time, energy and resources with no guarantee of improved outcomes; computer simulation modelling offers an alternative, low risk and lower cost approach to explore possible interventions. METHOD: A system dynamics computer simulation model was developed as a decision support tool for service planners. The model represents patient flow through the emergency care process from the point of calling for help through ED attendance, possible admission, and discharge or death. The model was validated against five different evidence-based interventions (geriatric emergency medicine, front door frailty, hospital at home, proactive care and acute frailty units) on patient outcomes such as hospital-related mortality, readmission and length of stay. RESULTS: The model output estimations are consistent with empirical evidence. Each intervention has different levels of effect on patient outcomes. Most of the interventions show potential reductions in hospital admissions, readmissions and hospital-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modelling can be used to support decisions on which emergency care interventions to implement to improve outcomes for older people.

Delivery of public health interventions by the ambulance sector: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: With millions of unscheduled patient contacts every year and increasing call outs clustered around the most deprived communities, it is clear the ambulance sector could have a role to play in improving population health. However, the application and value of a public health approach within the ambulance sector has not been comprehensively explored. A scoping review was undertaken to explore the role of the ambulance sector in the delivery of public health interventions and what impact this has on population health and ambulance sector outcomes. METHODS: A search strategy was developed on MEDLINE and translated to other major medical and health related bibliographic databases (Embase; CINAHL; HMIC; Science and Social Sciences Citation Index; Cochrane Library) to identify literature published since 2000 in OECD countries. Targeted grey literature, reference list, and citation searching was also carried out. Search results were downloaded to Microsoft Excel and screened by three reviewers according to pre-determined inclusion / exclusion criteria. Data from included studies, such as the type of activity noted within the paper, the population involved and the public health approach that was utilised, was extracted from within the paper using a data extraction form and narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Fifty-two references were included in the final review (37 database searching; 9 reference list searching; 6 grey literature). Included articles were categorised according to the relevant public health domains and subdomains as articulated by the UK Faculty of Public Health: 1. Health improvement domain: Public health education and advice (Health promotion sub-domain) (n=13) Emergency Services personnel providing vaccines (Disease prevention sub-domain) (n=1) 2. Health care public health domain Paramedicine (Service delivery sub-domain) (n=30) Screening tools and referral pathways used by the ambulance sector (Service delivery sub-domain) (n=28) Health intelligence using ambulance sector data (population health management sub-domain) (n=26) Of note, some domains (e.g. health protection) returned nil results. DISCUSSION: The scoping review demonstrates the breadth of public health related activities in which the ambulance sector is involved. However, an overemphasis on demand management outcomes precludes definitive conclusions on the impact of ambulance sector-led public health initiatives on public health outcomes. Future evaluations of public health initiatives should incorporate wider health system perspectives beyond the immediately apparent remit of the ambulance sector.

Sharing real-world data for public benefit: a qualitative exploration of stakeholder views and perceptions.

BACKGROUND: There has been an increasing interest in the use of "real-world" data to inform care decision making that could lead to public health benefit. Routinely collected service and activity data associated with the administration of care services and service-users (such as electronic health records or electronic social care records), hold potential to better inform effective and responsive decision-making about health and care services provided to national and local populations. This study sought to gain an in-depth understanding regarding the potential to unlock real world data that was held in individual organisations, to better inform public health decision-making. This included sharing data between and within health service providers and local governing authorities, but also with university researchers to inform the evidence base. METHODS: We used qualitative methods and carried out a series of online workshops and interviews with stakeholders (senior-level decision-makers and service leads, researchers, data analysts, those with a legal and governance role, and members of the public). We identified recurring themes in initial workshops, and explored these with participants in subsequent workshops. By this iterative process we further refined the themes identified, compared views and perceptions amongst different stakeholder groups, and developed recommendations for action. RESULTS: Our study identified key elements of context and timing, the need for a different approach, and obstacles including governmental and legal, organisational features, and process factors which adversely affect the sharing of real world data. The findings also highlighted a need for improved communication about data for secondary uses to members of the public. CONCLUSION: The Covid-19 pandemic context and changes to organisational structures in the health service in England have provided opportunities to address data sharing challenges. Change at national and local level is required, within current job roles and generating new jobs roles focused on the use and sharing of real-world data. The study suggests that actions can be taken to unlock the potential of real-world data for public health benefit, and provides a series of recommendations at a national level, for organisational leaders, those in data roles and those in public engagement roles.

What impact would reducing low-acuity attendance have on emergency department length of stay? A discrete event simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long waiting times in the ED have been shown to cause negative outcomes for patients. This study aims to assess the effect in reducing length of stay of (1) preventing low-acuity attenders from attending the ED and (2) diverting low-acuity attenders at triage to a colocated general practice (GP) service. METHODS: Discrete event simulation was used to model a large urban teaching hospital in the UK, as a case study, with a colocated GP service. The Centre for Urgent and Emergency Care research database patient-level database (May 2015-April 2016), secondary literature and expert elicitation were used to inform the model. The model predicted length of stay, the percentage of patients being seen within 4 hours and the incremental cost-effectiveness of the colocated GP service. RESULTS: The model predicted that diverting low-acuity patients to a colocated GP open 9:00 to 17:00 reduces the average time in the system for higher acuity attenders by 29 min at an estimated additional cost of £6.76 per patient on average. The percentage of higher acuity patients being seen within 4 hours increased from 61% to 67% due to the reduction in the length of stay of those who were in the ED for the longest time. However, the model is sensitive to changes in model inputs and there is uncertainty around ED activity durations, for which further primary data collection would be useful. CONCLUSION: Reducing the proportion of low-acuity attenders at the ED could have an impact on the time in the ED for higher acuity patients due to their use of shared resources, but is insufficient alone to meet current targets. The simulation model could be adapted for further analyses to understand which other changes would be needed to meet current government targets.

Factors associated with longer wait times, admission and reattendances in older patients attending emergency departments: an analysis of linked healthcare data.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Care for older patients in the ED is an increasingly important issue with the ageing society. To better assess the quality of care in this patient group, we assessed predictors for three outcomes related to ED care: being seen and discharged within 4 hours of ED arrival; being admitted from ED to hospital and reattending the ED within 30 days. We also used these outcomes to identify better-performing EDs. METHODS: The CUREd Research Database was used for a retrospective observational study of all 1 039 251 attendances by 368 754 patients aged 75+ years in 18 type 1 EDs in the Yorkshire and the Humber region of England between April 2012 and March 2017. We estimated multilevel logit models, accounting for patients' characteristics and contact with emergency services prior to ED arrival, time variables and the ED itself. RESULTS: Patients in the oldest category (95+ years vs 75-80 years) were more likely to have a long ED wait (OR=1.13 (95% CI=1.10 to 1.15)), hospital admission (OR=1.26 (95% CI=1.23 to 1.29)) and ED reattendance (OR=1.09 (95% CI=1.06 to 1.12)). Those who had previously attended (3+ vs 0 previous attendances) were more likely to have long wait (OR=1.07 (95% CI=1.06 to 1.08)), hospital admission (OR=1.10 (95% CI=1.09 to 1.12)) and ED attendance (OR=3.13 (95% CI=3.09 to 3.17)). Those who attended out of hours (vs not out of hours) were more likely to have a long ED wait (OR=1.33 (95% CI=1.32 to 1.34)), be admitted to hospital (OR=1.19 (95% CI=1.18 to 1.21)) and have ED reattendance (OR=1.07 (95% CI=1.05 to 1.08)). Those living in less deprived decile (vs most deprived decile) were less likely to have any of these three outcomes: OR=0.93 (95% CI=0.92 to 0.95), 0.92 (95% CI=0.90 to 0.94), 0.86 (95% CI=0.84 to 0.88). These characteristics were not strongly associated with long waits for those who arrived by ambulance. Emergency call handler designation was the strongest predictor of long ED waits and hospital admission: compared with those who did not arrive by ambulance; ORs for these outcomes were 1.18 (95% CI=1.16 to 1.20) and 1.85 (95% CI=1.81 to 1.89) for those designated less urgent; 1.37 (95% CI=1.33 to 1.40) and 2.13 (95% CI=2.07 to 2.18) for urgent attendees; 1.26 (95% CI=1.23 to 1.28) and 2.40 (95% CI=2.36 to 2.45) for emergency attendees; and 1.37 (95% CI=1.28 to 1.45) and 2.42 (95% CI=2.26 to 2.59) for those with life-threatening conditions. We identified two EDs whose patients were less likely to have a long ED, hospital admission or ED reattendance than other EDs in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Age, previous attendance and attending out of hours were all associated with an increased likelihood of exceeding 4 hours in the ED, hospital admission and reattendance among patients over 75 years. These differences were less pronounced among those arriving by ambulance. Emergency call handler designation could be used to identify those at the highest risk of long ED waits, hospital admission and ED reattendance.

What influences decisions to transfer older care-home residents to the emergency department? A synthesis of qualitative reviews.

BACKGROUND: care home residents aged over 65 have disproportionate rates of emergency department (ED) attendance and hospitalisation. Around 40% attendances may be avoidable, and hospitalisation is associated with harms. We synthesised the evidence available in qualitative systematic reviews of different stakeholders' experiences of decisions to transfer residents to the ED. METHODS: six electronic databases, references and citations of included reviews and relevant policy documents were searched. Reviews of qualitative studies exploring factors that influenced care home staff, medical practitioners, residents' family or residents' experiences and factors influencing decisions to transfer residents to the ED were included. Thematic analysis was used to synthesise findings. RESULTS: six previous reviews were included, which synthesised the findings of 34 primary studies encompassing 152 care home residents, 283 resident family members or carers and 447 care home staff. Of the primary studies, 19 were conducted in the North America, seven in Australia, five were conducted in Scandinavia, two in the United Kingdom and one in Holland. Three themes were identified: (i) power dynamics between residents, family members, care home staff and health care professionals (external to the care home) influence decisions; (ii) admission can be necessary; however, (iii) some decisions may be driven by factors other than clinical need. CONCLUSION: transfer decisions are complex and are determined not just by changes in health status interventions aimed at reducing avoidable transfers need to address the key role family members have in transfer decisions, the medical legal fears of care home staff and barriers to accessing community services.

Vocational Outcomes After Traumatic Brain Injury; Prevalence and Risk Factors After 1 Year in a Multivariable Model.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of employment status (ES) or full-time study after traumatic brain injury (TBI) in a representative population and its predictive factors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Regional Major Trauma Centre. Participants: In total, 1734 consecutive individuals of working age, admitted with TBI to a Regional Trauma Centre, were recruited and followed up at 8 weeks and 1 year with face-to-face interview. Median age was 37.2 years (17.5-58.2); 51% had mild TBI, and 36.8% had a normal computed tomographic (CT) scan. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Complete or partial/modified return to employment or study as an ordinal variable. RESULTS: At 1 year, only 44.9% returned to full-time work/study status, 28.7% had a partial or modified return, and 26.4% had no return at all. In comparison with status at 6 weeks, 9.9% had lower or reduced work status. Lower ES was associated with greater injury severity, more CT scan abnormality, older age, mechanism of assault, and presence of depression, alcohol intoxication, or a psychiatric history. The multivariable model was highly significant (P < .001) and had a Nagelkerke R2 of 0.353 (35.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Employment at 1 year is poor and changes in work status are frequent, occurring in both directions. While associations with certain features may allow targeting of vulnerable individuals in future, the majority of model variance remains unexplained and requires further investigation.

Heterogeneity of reasons for attendance in frequent attenders of emergency departments and its relationship to future attendance.

BACKGROUND: EDs globally are under increasing pressure through rising demand. Frequent attenders are known to have complex health needs and use a disproportionate amount of resources. We hypothesised that heterogeneity of patients' reason for attendance would be associated with multimorbidity and increasing age, and predict future attendance. METHOD: We analysed an anonymised dataset of all ED visits over the course of 2014 in Yorkshire, UK. We identified 15 986 patients who had five or more ED encounters at any ED in the calendar year. Presenting complaint was categorised into one of 14 categories based on the Emergency Care Data Set (ECDS). We calculated measures of heterogeneity (count of ECDs categories and entropy of categories) and examined their relationship to total number of ED visits and to patient characteristics. We examined the predictive value of these and other features on future attendance. RESULTS: Most frequent attenders had more than one presenting complaint type. Heterogeneity increased with number of attendances, but heterogeneity adjusted for number of attendances did not vary substantially with age or sex. Heterogeneity was associated with the presence of one or more contacts for a mental health problem. For a given number of attendances, prior mental health contact but not heterogeneity was associated with further attendance. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity of presenting complaint can be quantified and analysed for ED use: it is increased where there is a history of mental disorder but not with age. This suggests it reflects more than the number of medical conditions.

Frequent attendance at the emergency department shows typical features of complex systems: analysis of multicentre linked data.

OBJECTIVE: Frequent attendance at the ED is a worldwide problem. We hypothesised that frequent attendance could be understood as a feature of a complex system comprising patients, healthcare and society. Complex systems have characteristic statistical properties, with stable patterns at the level of the system emerging from unstable patterns at the level of individuals who make up the system. METHODS: Analysis of a linked dataset of routinely collected health records from all 13 hospital trusts providing ED care in the Yorkshire and Humber region of the UK (population 5.5 million). We analysed the distribution of attendances per person in each of 3 years and measured the transition of individual patients between frequent, infrequent and non-attendance. We fitted data to power law distributions typically seen in complex systems using maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: The data included 3.6 million attendances at EDs in 13 hospital trusts. 29/39 (74.3%) analyses showed a statistical fit to a power law; 2 (5.1%) fitted an alternative distribution. All trusts' data fitted a power law in at least 1 year. Differences over time and between hospital trusts were small and partly explained by demographics. In contrast, individual patients' frequent attendance was unstable between years. CONCLUSIONS: ED attendance patterns are stable at the level of the system, but unstable at the level of individual frequent attenders. Attendances follow a power law distribution typical of complex systems. Interventions to address ED frequent attendance need to consider the whole system and not just the individual frequent attenders.

Non-urgent emergency department attendances in children: a retrospective observational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: A significant proportion of ED attendances in children may be non-urgent attendances (NUAs), which could be better managed elsewhere. This study aimed to quantify NUAs and urgent attendances (UAs) in children to ED and determine which children present in this way and when. METHODS: Dataset extracted from the CUREd research database containing linked data on the provision of care in Yorkshire and Humber. Analysis focused on children's ED attendances (April 2014-March 2017). Summary statistics and odds ratios (OR) comparing NUAs and UAs were examined by: age, mode and time of arrival and deprivation alongside comparing summary statistics for waiting, treatment and total department times. RESULTS: NUAs were more likely in younger children: OR for NUA in children aged 1-4 years, 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83), age 15 years, 0.39 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.40), when compared with those under 1 year. NUAs were more likely to arrive out of hours (OOHs) compared with in hours: OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.20), and OOHs arrivals were less common in older children compared with those under 1 year: age 1-4 years, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.89) age 15 years, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.69). NUAs also spent less total time in the ED, with a median (IQR) of 98 min (60-147) compared with 127 min (80-185) for UAs. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of ED attendances in children are NUAs. Our data suggest there are particular groups of children for whom targeted interventions would be most beneficial. Children under 5 years would be such a group, particularly in providing accessible, timely care outside of usual community care opening hours.

Improving outcomes for older people in the emergency department: a review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: There has been a recognised trend of increasing use of emergency and urgent care and emergency departments (EDs) by older people, which is marked by a substantial evidence base reporting interventions for this population and guidance from key organisations. Despite this, outcomes for this population remain suboptimal. A plethora of reviews in this area provides challenges for clinicians and commissioners in determining which interventions and models of care best meet people's needs. The aim of this review was to identify effective ED interventions which have been reported for older people, and to provide a clear summary of the myriad reviews and numerous intervention types in this area. METHODS: A review of reviews, reporting interventions for older people, either initiated or wholly delivered within the ED. RESULTS: A total of 15 review articles describing 83 primary studies met our content and reporting standards criteria. The majority (n=13) were systematic reviews (four using meta-analysis.) Across the reviews, 26 different outcomes were reported with inconsistency. Follow-up duration varied within and across the reviews. Based on how authors had reported results, evidence clusters were developed: (1) staff-focused reviews, (2) discharge intervention reviews, (3) population-focused reviews and (4) intervention component reviews. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base describing interventions is weak due to inconsistent reporting, differing emphasis placed on the key characteristics of primary studies (staff, location and outcome) by review authors and varying quality of reviews. No individual interventions have been found to be more promising, but interventions initiated in the ED and continued into other settings have tended to result in more favourable patient and health service outcomes. Despite many interventions reported within the reviews being holistic and patient focused, outcomes measured were largely service focused. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42018111461.

Paediatric emergency department utilisation rates and maternal migration status in the Born in Bradford cohort: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, international migration is increasing. Population growth, along with other demographic changes, may be expected to put new pressures on healthcare systems. Some studies across Europe suggest that emergency departments (EDs) are used more, and differently, by migrants compared to non-migrant populations, which may be a result of unfamiliarity with the healthcare systems and difficulties accessing primary healthcare. However, little evidence exists to understand how migrant parents, who are typically young and of childbearing age, utilise EDs for their children. This study aimed to examine the association between paediatric ED utilisation in the first 5 years of life and maternal migration status in the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed linked data from the BiB study-an ongoing, multi-ethnic prospective birth cohort study in Bradford. Bradford is a large, ethnically diverse city in the north of England. In 2017, more than a third of births in Bradford were to mothers who were born outside the UK. Between March 2007 and December 2010, pregnant women were recruited to BiB during routine antenatal care, and the children born to these mothers have been, and continue to be, followed over time to assess how social, genetic, environmental, and behavioural factors impact on health from childhood to adulthood. Data analysed in this study included baseline questionnaire data from BiB mothers, and Bradford Royal Infirmary ED episode data for their children. Main outcomes were likelihood of paediatric ED use (no visits versus at least 1 ED visit in the first 5 years of life) and ED utilisation rates (number and frequency of ED visits) for children who have accessed the ED. The main explanatory variable was mother's migrant status (foreign-born versus UK/Irish-born). Multivariable analyses (logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression) were conducted adjusting for socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. The final dataset included 10,168 children born between April 2007 and June 2011, of whom 35.6% were born to migrant mothers. Foreign-born mothers originated from South Asia (28.6%), Europe/Central Asia (3.2%), Africa (2.1%), East Asia/Pacific (1.1%), and the Middle East (0.6%). At recruitment the mothers ranged in age from 15 to 49 years old. Overall, 3,104 (30.5%) children had at least 1 ED visit in the first 5 years of life, with the highest proportion of visits being in the first year of life (36.7%). The proportion of children who visited the ED at least once was lower for children of migrant mothers as compared to children of non-migrant mothers (29.4% versus 31.2%). Children of migrant mothers were found to be less likely to visit the ED (odds ratio 0.88 [95% CI 0.80 to 0.97], p = 0.012). However, among children who visited the ED, the utilisation rate was significantly higher for children of migrant mothers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19 [95% CI 1.01 to 1.40], p = 0.040). Utilisation rates were higher for children born to mothers from Europe (IRR 1.71 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.71], p = 0.024) and established migrants (≥5 years living in UK) (IRR 1.24 [95% CI 1.02 to 1.51], p = 0.032) compared to UK/Irish-born mothers. Important limitations include being unable to measure children's underlying health status and the urgency of ED attendance, as well as the analysis being limited by missing data. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we observed that there is no higher likelihood of first paediatric ED attendance in the first 5 years of life for children in the BiB cohort for migrant mothers. However, among ED users, children of migrant mothers attend the service more frequently than children of UK/Irish-born mothers. Our findings show that patterns of ED utilisation differ by mother's region of origin and time since arrival in the UK.