Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier).

Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator-prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a combined analysis of animal tracking, remotely sensed environmental data, habitat modeling, and capture data to evaluate the effects of climate variability and change on the distributional range and migratory phenology of an ectothermic apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Tiger sharks satellite tracked in the western North Atlantic between 2010 and 2019 revealed significant annual variability in the geographic extent and timing of their migrations to northern latitudes from ocean warming. Specifically, tiger shark migrations have extended farther poleward and arrival times to northern latitudes have occurred earlier in the year during periods with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures. A complementary analysis of nearly 40 years of tiger shark captures in the region revealed decadal-scale changes in the distribution and timing of shark captures in parallel with long-term ocean warming. Specifically, areas of highest catch densities have progressively increased poleward and catches have occurred earlier in the year off the North American shelf. During periods of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures, movements of tracked sharks shifted beyond spatial management zones that had been affording them protection from commercial fishing and bycatch. Taken together, these study results have implications for fisheries management, human-wildlife conflict, and ecosystem functioning.

Critical assessment and ramifications of a purported marine trophic cascade.

When identifying potential trophic cascades, it is important to clearly establish the trophic linkages between predators and prey with respect to temporal abundance, demographics, distribution, and diet. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the depletion of large coastal sharks was thought to trigger a trophic cascade whereby predation release resulted in increased cownose ray abundance, which then caused increased predation on and subsequent collapse of commercial bivalve stocks. These claims were used to justify the development of a predator-control fishery for cownose rays, the "Save the Bay, Eat a Ray" fishery, to reduce predation on commercial bivalves. A reexamination of data suggests declines in large coastal sharks did not coincide with purported rapid increases in cownose ray abundance. Likewise, the increase in cownose ray abundance did not coincide with declines in commercial bivalves. The lack of temporal correlations coupled with published diet data suggest the purported trophic cascade is lacking the empirical linkages required of a trophic cascade. Furthermore, the life history parameters of cownose rays suggest they have low reproductive potential and their populations are incapable of rapid increases. Hypothesized trophic cascades should be closely scrutinized as spurious conclusions may negatively influence conservation and management decisions.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

Seasonal distribution and historic trends in abundance of white sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, in the western North Atlantic Ocean.

Despite recent advances in field research on white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in several regions around the world, opportunistic capture and sighting records remain the primary source of information on this species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). Previous studies using limited datasets have suggested a precipitous decline in the abundance of white sharks from this region, but considerable uncertainty in these studies warrants additional investigation. This study builds upon previously published data combined with recent unpublished records and presents a synthesis of 649 confirmed white shark records from the NWA compiled over a 210-year period (1800-2010), resulting in the largest white shark dataset yet compiled from this region. These comprehensive records were used to update our understanding of their seasonal distribution, relative abundance trends, habitat use, and fisheries interactions. All life stages were present in continental shelf waters year-round, but median latitude of white shark occurrence varied seasonally. White sharks primarily occurred between Massachusetts and New Jersey during summer and off Florida during winter, with broad distribution along the coast during spring and fall. The majority of fishing gear interactions occurred with rod and reel, longline, and gillnet gears. Historic abundance trends from multiple sources support a significant decline in white shark abundance in the 1970s and 1980s, but there have been apparent increases in abundance since the 1990s when a variety of conservation measures were implemented. Though the white shark's inherent vulnerability to exploitation warrants continued protections, our results suggest a more optimistic outlook for the recovery of this iconic predator in the Atlantic.