Ordinal scoring of coronary artery calcifications on low-dose CT scans of the chest is predictive of death from cardiovascular disease.

PURPOSE: To assess the usefulness of ordinal scoring of the visual assessment of coronary artery calcification (CAC) on low-dose computed tomographic (CT) scans of the chest in the prediction of cardiovascular death. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All participants consented to low-dose CT screening according to an institutional review board-approved protocol. The amount of CAC was assessed on ungated low-dose CT scans of the chest obtained between June 2000 and December 2005 in a cohort of 8782 smokers aged 40-85 years. The four main coronary arteries were visually scored, and each participant received a CAC score of 0-12. The date and cause of death was obtained by using the National Death Index. Follow-up time (median, 72.3 months; range, 0.3-91.9 months) was calculated as the time between CT and death, loss to follow-up, or December 31, 2007, whichever came first. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk of mortality according to CAC category adjusted for age, pack-years of cigarette smoking, and sex. The same analysis to determine the hazard ratio for survival from cardiac death was performed by using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The rate of cardiovascular deaths increased with an increasing CAC score and was 1.2% (43 of 3573 subjects) for a score of 0, 1.8% (66 of 3569 subjects) for a score of 1-3, 5.0% (51 of 1015 subjects) for a score of 4-6, and 5.3% (33 of 625 subjects) for a score of 7-12. With use of subjects with a CAC score of 0 as the reference group, a CAC score of at least 4 was a significant predictor of cardiovascular death (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% confidence interval: 3.3, 6.8; P < .0001); when adjusted for sex, age, and pack-years of smoking, the CAC score remained significant (OR, 2.1; 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 3.1; P = .0002). CONCLUSION: Visual assessment of CAC on low-dose CT scans provides clinically relevant quantitative information as to cardiovascular death.

CT screening for lung cancer: the value of short-term CT follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Although CT screening for lung cancer results in a diagnosis of stage I > 80% of the time, benign noncalcified nodules are also found. We recognized that some nodules appeared to represent infectious bronchopneumonia or other inflammatory processes, as they resolved on follow-up CT, sometimes after antibiotic therapy. To determine the extent to which short-term CT radiographic follow-up might shorten the workup of nodules, we reviewed our experience with baseline and annual repeat CT screenings performed subsequent to the original Early Lung Cancer Action Project series. METHODS: The initial CT of 1,968 consecutive baseline and 2,343 annual repeat screenings performed from 1999 to 2002 was reviewed. We identified all those recommended for antibiotics on the initial CT who had a follow-up CT within 2 months and determined whether the nodule(s) resolved, decreased in size, remained unchanged, or grew. We then determined whether further follow-up resulted in a diagnosis of cancer. RESULTS: At baseline, among the 41 individuals who had follow-up CT within 2 months of the initial CT, 12 patients (29%) had complete or partial resolution; none of them subsequently received a diagnosis of lung cancer. On annual repeat screening, among the 39 individuals who had follow-up CT within 2 months of the initial CT, 29 patients (74%) had complete or partial resolution; none of them subsequently received a diagnosis of lung cancer. Among the 29 patients with nodules at baseline that were unchanged or grew, a total of 15 cancers were subsequently diagnosed; among the 10 patients on annual repeat scanning, there were 2 cancers. CONCLUSIONS: In asymptomatic individuals undergoing CT screening for lung cancer, short-term follow-up CT within 2 months with or without antibiotics may circumvent the need for further evaluation in some individuals, particularly on annual repeat screening.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer.

The development of CT technology reopened the lung cancer screening debate. Computed tomography screening for lung cancer certainly meets all the criteria required for an appropriate screening test. First and perhaps most importantly, the disease for which the screening is being performed should have a significant prevalence in the population being studied and be a significant health risk for those afflicted with it. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women, and one of the most lethal of all cancers.

CT screening for lung cancer Assessing a regimen's diagnostic performance.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to characterize the diagnostic performance of a regimen of CT screening for lung cancer. METHODS: Using a common protocol/regimen of screening, 2968 asymptomatic persons at high risk for lung cancer were enrolled in two studies [Early Lung Cancer Action Projects (ELCAP) I and II] for baseline and annual repeat screening. A total of 4538 annual repeat screenings were performed. The regimen's diagnostic performance was characterized in terms of frequency of positive result of the initial CT as well as of screen-diagnosis and Stage I screen-diagnosis among all diagnoses (interim-diagnoses included), all separately for baseline and annual repeat screenings. RESULTS: The proportions with positive result of the initial CT were 12% and 6% in the baseline and repeat screenings, respectively. The proportions of screen-diagnoses among all diagnoses (interim-diagnoses included) were 97% and 99% in the baseline and repeat cycles, respectively. The corresponding proportions of pre-surgical Stage I screen-diagnoses were 95% and 93%. CONCLUSION: The performance of the ELCAP regimen is quite satisfactory in avoiding over many positive results of the initial CT, and it produces highly promising diagnostic results as for the attainment of cure by early intervention.

Emphysema scores predict death from COPD and lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess the usefulness of emphysema scores in predicting death from COPD and lung cancer. METHODS: Emphysema was assessed with low-dose CT scans performed on 9,047 men and women for whom age and smoking history were documented. Each scan was scored according to the presence of emphysema as follows: none, mild, moderate, or marked. Follow-up time was calculated from time of CT scan to time of death or December 31, 2007, whichever came first. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of emphysema as a predictor of death. RESULTS: Median age was 65 years, 4,433 (49%) were men, and 4,133 (46%) were currently smoking or had quit within 5 years. Emphysema was identified in 2,637 (29%) and was a significant predictor of death from COPD (HR, 9.3; 95% CI, 4.3-20.2; P < .0001) and from lung cancer (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5; P = .013), even when adjusted for age and smoking history. CONCLUSIONS: Visual assessment of emphysema on CT scan is a significant predictor of death from COPD and lung cancer.

CT screening for lung cancer: frequency and significance of part-solid and nonsolid nodules.

OBJECTIVE: In the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP), we found not only solid but also part-solid and nonsolid nodules in patients at both baseline and repeat CT screening for lung cancer. We report the frequency and significance of part-solid and nonsolid nodules in comparison with solid nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed all instances of a positive finding in patients at baseline (from one to six noncalcified nodules) and annual repeat screenings (from one to six newly detected noncalcified nodules with interim growth) to classify each of the nodules as solid, part-solid, or nonsolid. We defined a solid nodule as a nodule that completely obscures the entire lung parenchyma within it. Part-solid nodules are those having sections that are solid in this sense, and nonsolid nodules are those with no solid parts. Chi-square statistics were used to test for differences in the malignancy rates. RESULTS: Among the 233 instances of positive results at baseline screening, 44 (19%) involved a part-solid or nonsolid largest nodule (16 part-solid and 28 nonsolid). Among these 44 cases of positive findings, malignancy was diagnosed in 15 (34%) as opposed to a 7% malignancy rate for solid nodules (p = 0.000001). The malignancy rate for part-solid nodules was 63% (10/16), and the rate for nonsolid nodules was 18% (5/28). Even after standardizing for nodule size, the malignancy rate was significantly higher for part-solid nodules than for either solid ones (p = 0.004) or nonsolid ones (p = 0.03). The malignancy type in the part-solid or nonsolid nodules was predominantly bronchioloalveolar carcinoma or adenocarcinoma with bronchioloalveolar features, contrasting with other subtypes of adenocarcinoma found in the solid nodules (p = 0.0001). At annual repeat screenings, only 30 instances of positive test results have been obtained; seven of these involved part-solid or nonsolid nodules. CONCLUSION: In CT screening for lung cancer, the detected nodule commonly is either only part-solid or nonsolid, but such a nodule is more likely to be malignant than a solid one, even when nodule size is taken into account.

CT screening for lung cancer: suspiciousness of nodules according to size on baseline scans.

PURPOSE: To assess the frequency with which a particular, possibly optimal work-up of noncalcified nodules less than 5.0 mm in diameter identified on initial computed tomographic (CT) images at baseline screening leads to a diagnosis of malignancy prior to first annual repeat screening, compared with a possibly optimal work-up of larger nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two series of baseline CT screenings in high-risk people were retrospectively reviewed. The first series (n = 1,000) was performed in 1993-1998; the second (n = 1,897), in 1999-2002. In each series, cases in which the largest noncalcified nodule detected was less than 5.0 mm in diameter and those in which it was 5.0-9 mm were reviewed to determine whether diagnostic work-up prior to first annual repeat screening showed or would have shown nodule growth and led or would have led to a diagnosis based on biopsy or surgical specimens. RESULTS: The frequency with which malignancy was or could have been diagnosed when the largest noncalcified nodule was less than 5.0 mm in diameter was 0 of 378, whereas when the largest noncalcified nodule was 5.0-9 mm in diameter, the frequency was 13 or 14 of 238. If persons with only nodules smaller than 5.0 mm had merely been referred for first annual repeat screening without immediate further work-up, the referrals for such work-up would have been reduced by 54% (from 817 [28%] to 385 [13%] of 2,897). CONCLUSION: In modern CT screening for lung cancer at baseline, detected noncalcified nodules smaller than 5.0 mm in diameter do not justify immediate work-up but only annual repeat screening to determine whether interim growth has occurred.