Combinations of Drinking Occasion Characteristics Associated with Units of Alcohol Consumed among British Adults: An Event-Level Decision Tree Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is influenced by the characteristics of drinking occasions, for example, location, timing, or the composition of the drinking group. However, the relative importance of occasion characteristics is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify which characteristics, and combinations of characteristics, are associated with units consumed within drinking occasions. It also tests whether accounting for occasion characteristics improves the prediction of consumption compared to using demographic information only. METHODS: The data come from a cross-sectional, nationally representative, online market research survey. Our sample includes 18,409 British drinkers aged 18 + who recorded the characteristics of 46,072 drinking occasions using 7-day retrospective drinking diaries in 2018. We used decision tree modeling and nested linear regression to predict units consumed in occasions using information on drinking location/venue, occasion timing, company, occasion type (e.g., a quiet night in), occasion motivation, drink type and packaging, food eaten and entertainment/ other activities during the occasion. We estimated models separately for 6 age-sex groups and controlled for usual drinking frequency, and social grade in nested linear regression models. Open Science Framework preregistration: https://osf.io/42epd. RESULTS: Our 6 final models accounted for between 55% and 71% of the variance in drinking occasion alcohol consumption. Beyond demographic characteristics (1 to 9%) and occasion duration (24 to 60%), further occasion characteristics and combinations of characteristics accounted for 31 to 70% of the total explained variance. The characteristics most strongly associated with heavy alcohol consumption were long occasion duration, drinking spirits as doubles, and drinking wine. Spirits were also consumed in light occasions, but as singles. This suggests that the serving size is an important differentiator of light and heavy occasions. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of occasion duration and drink type are strongly predictive of alcohol consumption in adults' drinking occasions. Accounting for characteristics of drinking occasions, both individually and in combination, substantially improves the prediction of alcohol consumption.

A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models.

This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour mechanisms that give rise to the dynamics of population-level alcohol use: a single-theory model of norm theory and a multi-theory model that combines norm theory with role theory. The MBSSM architecture provides a computational environment within which theories based on social mechanisms can be represented, compared, and integrated. The architecture plays a fundamental enabling role within a wider simulation model-based framework of abductive reasoning in which families of theories are tested for their ability to explain concrete social phenomena.

Exposure to revised drinking guidelines and 'COM-B' determinants of behaviour change: descriptive analysis of a monthly cross-sectional survey in England.

BACKGROUND: January 2016 saw the publication of proposed revisions to the UK's lower risk drinking guidelines but no sustained promotional activity. This paper aims to explore the impact of publishing guidelines without sustained promotional activity on reported guideline exposure and determinants of behaviour (capability, opportunity and motivation) proposed by the COM-B model. METHODS: Data were collected by a monthly repeat cross-sectional survey of adults (18+) resident in England over 15 months between November 2015 and January 2017 from a total of 16,779 drinkers, as part of the Alcohol Toolkit Study. Trends and associated 95% confidence intervals were described in the proportion of reported exposure to guidelines in the past month and measures of the capability, opportunity and motivation to consume alcohol within drinking guidelines. RESULTS: There was a rise in reported exposure to drinking guidelines in January 2016 (57.6-80.6%) which did not reoccur in January 2017. Following the increase in January 2016, reported exposure reduced slowly but remained significantly higher than in December 2015. In February 2016, there was an increase in measures of capability (31.1% reported tracking units of alcohol consumption and 87.8% considered it easier to drink safely) and opportunity (84.0% perceived their lifestyle as conducive to drinking within guidelines). This change was not maintained in subsequent months. Other measures showed marginal changes between January and February 2016 with no evidence of change in subsequent months. CONCLUSIONS: Following the publication of revised drinking guideline in January 2016, there was a transient increase in exposure to guidelines, and capability and opportunity to drink within the guidelines that diminished over time. The transience and size of the changes indicate that behaviour change is unlikely. Well-designed, theory-based promotional campaigns may be required for drinking guidelines to be an effective public health intervention.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of brief interventions for heavy drinking in primary health care across Europe.

Background: Screening and Brief Interventions for alcohol are an effective public health measure to tackle alcohol-related harm, however relatively few countries across the European Union (EU) have implemented them widely. This may be due to a lack of understanding of the specific financial implications of such policies within each country. Methods: A novel 'meta-modelling' approach was developed based on previous SBI cost-effectiveness models for four EU countries. Data were collected on the key factors which drive cost-effectiveness for all 28 EU countries (mean per capita alcohol consumption, proportion of the population to be screened over a 10-year SBI programme; per capita alcohol-attributable mortality; per capita alcohol-attributable morbidity; mean cost of an alcohol-related hospitalisation and mean SBI-delivery staff cost). Regression analysis was used to fit two meta-models estimating net programme costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained, to calculate cost-effectiveness estimates specific to each EU country. Results: Costs are dependent upon the proportion of the population covered by the screening programme, the country-specific per capita mortality and morbidity rate and the country-specific costs of GP care and hospitalisation. QALYs depend on the proportion of the population screened and per capita alcohol consumption. Despite large inter-country variability in factor values, SBI programmes are likely to be cost-effective in 24 out of 28 EU countries and cost-saving in 50% of countries. Conclusion: Implementing national programmes of SBI in primary health care would be a cost-effective means of reducing alcohol-attributable morbidity and deaths in almost all countries of the EU.

Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax increase, -3.2%; value-based tax, -2.9%; strength-based tax, -6.1%; minimum unit pricing, -7.8%) and lesser impacts among drinkers in professional/managerial occupations (for heavy drinkers: current tax increase, -1.3%; value-based tax, -1.4%; strength-based tax, +0.2%; minimum unit pricing, +0.8%). Results from the PSA give slightly greater mean effects for both the routine/manual (current tax increase, -3.6% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) -6.1%, -0.6%]; value-based tax, -3.3% [UI -5.1%, -1.7%]; strength-based tax, -7.5% [UI -13.7%, -3.9%]; minimum unit pricing, -10.3% [UI -10.3%, -7.0%]) and professional/managerial occupation groups (current tax increase, -1.8% [UI -4.7%, +1.6%]; value-based tax, -1.9% [UI -3.6%, +0.4%]; strength-based tax, -0.8% [UI -6.9%, +4.0%]; minimum unit pricing, -0.7% [UI -5.6%, +3.6%]). Impacts of price changes on moderate drinkers were small regardless of income or socioeconomic group. Analysis of uncertainty shows that the relative effectiveness of the four policies is fairly stable, although uncertainty in the absolute scale of effects exists. Volumetric taxation and minimum unit pricing consistently outperform increasing the current tax or adding an ad valorem tax in terms of reducing mortality among the heaviest drinkers and reducing alcohol-related health inequalities (e.g., in the routine/manual occupation group, volumetric taxation reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 26 out of 30 probabilistic runs, minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than volumetric tax in 21 out of 30 runs, and minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 30 out of 30 runs). Study limitations include reducing model complexity by not considering a largely ineffective ban on below-tax alcohol sales, special duty rates covering only small shares of the market, and the impact of tax fraud or retailer non-compliance with minimum unit prices. CONCLUSIONS: Our model estimates that, compared to tax increases under the current system or introducing taxation based on product value, alcohol-content-based taxation or minimum unit pricing would lead to larger reductions in health inequalities across income groups. We also estimate that alcohol-content-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have the largest impact on harmful drinking, with minimal effects on those drinking in moderation.

Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on different income and socioeconomic groups: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Several countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions. METHODS: We used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups. FINDINGS: Overall, a minimum unit price of £0.45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1.6% (-11.7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (-3.8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0.8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0.04 vs £1.86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of -3.7% or -138.2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4.01), especially in the lowest income quintile (-7.6% or -299.8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34.63) compared with the highest income quintile (-1.0% or -34.3 units, with an increase in spending of £16.35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41.7% of the sample population) would accrue 81.8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87.1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. INTERPRETATION: Irrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0.45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043).

Alcohol consumption among the over 50s: international comparisons.

AIM: Research exploring alcohol consumption patterns and behaviour change among older adults is relatively scarce, often necessitating reliance on international evidence. To understand the degree to which findings may be generalizable across countries, this review compares recent epidemiological evidence from developed countries on the prevalence of abstention and potentially problematic alcohol consumption in older adults. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and PsychInfo were searched for English language publications, identifying 21 peer-reviewed publications and six reports, including data from 17 national surveys and 10 general practice and community samples published since 2000. RESULTS: Of the developed countries for which data are available on adults aged over 50 years, rates of past 12-month abstention and former drinking are lowest in England and Finland, and highest in Korea and the USA. The prevalence of binge drinking varies widely between studies, whilst rates of alcohol dependence are broadly similar. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults in developed countries report different rates of abstention and alcohol consumption. This places obvious limitations on the extrapolation of results from specific research findings and policy strategies to other countries.

A theory-based online health behaviour intervention for new university students (U@Uni): results from a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Too few young people engage in behaviours that reduce the risk of morbidity and premature mortality, such as eating healthily, being physically active, drinking sensibly and not smoking. This study sought to assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a theory-based online health behaviour intervention (based on self-affirmation theory, the Theory of Planned Behaviour and implementation intentions) targeting these behaviours in new university students, in comparison to a measurement-only control. METHODS: Two-weeks before starting university all incoming undergraduates at the University of Sheffield were invited to take part in a study of new students' health behaviour. A randomised controlled design, with a baseline questionnaire, and two follow-ups (1 and 6 months after starting university), was used to evaluate the intervention. Primary outcomes were measures of the four health behaviours targeted by the intervention at 6-month follow-up, i.e., portions of fruit and vegetables, metabolic equivalent of tasks (physical activity), units of alcohol, and smoking status. RESULTS: The study recruited 1,445 students (intervention n = 736, control n = 709, 58% female, Mean age = 18.9 years), of whom 1,107 completed at least one follow-up (23% attrition). The intervention had a statistically significant effect on one primary outcome, smoking status at 6-month follow-up, with fewer smokers in the intervention arm (8.7%) than in the control arm (13.0%; Odds ratio = 1.92, p = .010). There were no significant intervention effects on the other primary outcomes (physical activity, alcohol or fruit and vegetable consumption) at 6-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the RCT indicate that the online health behaviour intervention reduced smoking rates, but it had little effect on fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity or alcohol consumption, during the first six months at university. However, engagement with the intervention was low. Further research is needed before strong conclusions can be made regarding the likely effectiveness of the intervention to promote health lifestyle habits in new university students. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN67684181.

How is alcohol consumption and heavy episodic drinking spread across different types of drinking occasion in Great Britain: An event-level latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: This paper aimed to (i) update a previous typology of British alcohol drinking occasions using a more recent and expanded dataset and revised modelling procedure, and (ii) estimate the average consumption level, prevalence of heavy drinking, and distribution of all alcohol consumption and heavy drinking within and across occasion types. METHODS: The paper uses a cross-sectional latent class analysis of event-level diary data that includes characteristics of 43,089 drinking occasions in 2019 reported by 17,821 adult drinkers in Great Britain. The latent class indicators are characteristics of off-trade only (e.g. home), on-trade only (e.g. bar) and mixed trade (e.g. home and bar) drinking occasions. These describe companions, locations, purpose, motivation, accompanying activities, timings, consumption volume in units (1 UK unit = 8g ethanol) and beverages consumed. RESULTS: The analysis identified four off-trade only, eight on-trade only and three mixed-trade occasion types (i.e. latent classes). Mean consumption per occasion varied between 4.4 units in Family meals to 17.7 units in Big nights out with pre-loading. It exceeded ten units in all mixed-trade occasion types and in Off-trade get togethers, Big nights out and Male friends at the pub. Three off-trade types accounted for 50.8% of all alcohol consumed and 51.8% of heavy drinking occasions: Quiet drink at home alone, Evening at home with partner and Off-trade get togethers. For thirteen out of fifteen occasion types, more than 25% of occasions involved heavy drinking. Conversely, 41.7% of Big nights out and 16.4% of Big nights out with preloading were not heavy drinking occasions. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption varies substantially across and within fifteen types of drinking occasion in Great Britain. Heavy drinking is common in most occasion types. However, moderate drinking is also common in occasion types often characterised as heavy drinking practices. Mixed-trade drinking occasions are particularly likely to involve heavy drinking.

Solitary drinkers in Great Britain: How do their sociodemographic characteristics, consumption patterns, and drinking occasions differ from those who drink with others?

OBJECTIVE: Inequalities in alcohol-related harm may arise partly from differences in drinking practices between population groups. One under-researched practice associated with harm is consuming alcohol alone. We identify sociodemographic characteristics associated with drinking alone and the occasion-level characteristics associated with occasions when people drink alone. METHOD: A cross-sectional analysis of one-week drinking diaries collected between 2015 and 2019 was conducted using event-level data on 271,738 drinking occasions reported by 83,952 adult drinkers in Great Britain. Our two dependent variables were a binary indicator of reporting at least one solitary drinking occasion in the diary-week at the individual-level and a binary indicator of drinking alone at the occasion-level (event-level). RESULTS: Individual-level characteristics associated with solitary drinking were being a man (OR 1.88, 95%CI [1.80,1.96]), aged over 50 (OR 2.60, 95%CI [2.40,2.81]), not in a relationship (OR 3.39, 95%CI [3.20, 3.59]), living alone (OR 2.51, 95%CI [2.37, 2.66]), and a high-risk drinker (OR 1.54, 95%CI [1.52,1.59]). Occasion-level characteristics associated with solitary drinking were that they were more likely to occur in the off-trade (OR 3.08, 95%CI [2.95,3.21]), Monday-Thursday (OR 1.36, 95%CI [1.27,1.47]), and after 10pm (OR 1.36, 95%CI [1.27,1.47]) controlling for geographic region and the month the interview took place. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of solitary drinking largely align with characteristics we associated with drinking problems. Those who partake in at least one solitary drinking occasion are overall more likely to consume alcohol at risky levels, however, the number of drinks consumed in each occasion was lower during a solitary drinking occasion.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of alcohol screening and brief interventions in primary care in England.

AIMS: To estimate the cost-effectiveness and resourcing implications of universal alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI) programmes in primary care in England. METHODS: This was a health economic model, combining evidence of the effectiveness and health care resource requirements of SBI activities with existing epidemiological modelling of the relationship between alcohol consumption and health harms. RESULTS: Screening patients on registration with a family doctor would steadily capture ~40% of the population over a 10-year programme; screening patients at next primary care consultation would capture 96% of the population over the same period, but with high resourcing needs in the first year. The registration approach, delivered by a practice nurse, provides modest cost savings to the health care system of £120 m over 30 years. Health gains over the same period amount to 32,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). This SBI programme still appears cost-effective (at £6900 per QALY gained) compared with no programme, under pessimistic effectiveness assumptions. Switching to a consultation approach, delivered by a doctor, would incur an incremental net cost of £108 m, with incremental health gains equivalent to 92,000 QALYs, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £1175 per QALY gained compared with current practice. CONCLUSION: A universal programme of alcohol SBI in primary care is estimated to be cost-effective, under all but the most pessimistic assumptions for programme costs and effectiveness. Policymakers should ensure that SBI programmes are routinely evaluated and followed up, given the substantial uncertainty over the effects of many of the implementation details.

Understanding changes in the locations of drinking occasions in Great Britain: An age-period-cohort analysis of repeat cross-sectional market research data, 2001-2019.

INTRODUCTION: The 21st century has seen wide-ranging changes in drinking locations in Great Britain, with on-trade alcohol sales decreasing and off-trade sales increasing. To better understand the underlying time-trends in consumer behaviour, we examine age-period-cohort (APC) effects related to changes in the share of individuals' drinking occasions taking place in: (i) on-trade versus off-trade locations; and (ii) specific on-trade or off-trade locations, that is traditional/community pubs, modern pubs/bars/café bars, nightclubs/late-night venues, restaurants/pub restaurants, social/working men's clubs, golf/other sports clubs/venues, at home (social setting) and at home (non-social setting). METHODS: Repeat cross-sectional 1-week drinking diary data, collected 2001-2019. APC analysis via negative binomial regression models for each gender (N = 162,296 men, 138,452 women). RESULTS: A smaller/declining proportion of occasions took place in on-trade compared to off-trade locations. Recent cohorts tended to have a larger share of on-trade occasions than previous cohorts, driven by their larger share of occasions in modern pubs/bars/café bars and nightclubs/late-night venues. Meanwhile, occasions in social/working men's clubs, golf/other sports clubs/venues and traditional/community pubs tended to be popular among older men, but have declined. Finally, the growth of off-trade drinking appears to be driven by a growth of off-trade drinking in non-social settings, in particular by older people/cohorts. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the declining prominence of certain on-trade locations, and increasing prominence of home drinking in non-social settings, within British drinking practices. While rising non-social home drinking is concerning, it is positive from a public health perspective that it does not appear to be shared by recent cohorts.

Situated drinking: The association between eating and alcohol consumption in Great Britain.

Aims: This paper examines the co-occurrence of drinking alcohol and eating in Great Britain. Applying a practice-theoretical framework, it attends primarily to the nature and characteristics of events - to social situations. It asks whether drinking events involving food are significantly different from those without, whether differences are the same at home as on commercial public premises, and whether differences are the same for men and women. The focus is especially on episodes of drinking with meals at home, an infrequently explored context for a substantial proportion of contemporary alcohol consumption. Data: Employing a secondary analysis of commercial data about the British population in 2016, we examine reports of 47,645 drinking events, on commercial premises and at other locations, to explore how eating food and consumption of alcoholic beverages affect one another. Three types of event are compared - drinking with meals, with snacks, and without any food. Variables describing situations include group size and composition, temporal and spatial parameters, beverages, purposes, and simultaneous activities. Basic sociodemographic characteristics of respondents are also examined, with a special focus on the effects of gender. Results: Behaviours differ between settings. The presence of food at a drinking episode is associated with different patterns of participation, orientations, and quantities and types of beverage consumed. Gender, age, and class differences are apparent. Conclusions: Patterns of alcohol consumption are significantly affected by the accompaniment of food. This is a much-neglected topic that would benefit from further comparative and time series studies to determine the consequences for behaviour and intervention.

Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England.

AIMS: Evidence exists on the potential impact of national level minimum unit price (MUP) policies for alcohol. This study investigated the potential effectiveness of implementing MUP at regional and local levels compared with national implementation. DESIGN: Evidence synthesis and computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (Local Authority version 4.0; SAPMLA). SETTING: Results are produced for 23 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in North West England, 12 UTLAs in North East England, 15 UTLAs in Yorkshire and Humber, the nine English Government Office regions and England as a whole. CASES: Health Survey for England (HSE) data 2011-13 (n = 24 685). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, retailers' revenues, hospitalizations, National Health Service costs, crimes and alcohol-attributable deaths and health inequalities. FINDINGS: Implementing a local £0.50 MUP for alcohol in northern English regions is estimated to result in larger percentage reductions in harms than the national average. The reductions for England, North West, North East and Yorkshire and Humber regions, respectively, in annual alcohol-attributable deaths are 1024 (-10.4%), 205 (-11.4%), 121 (-17.4%) and 159 (-16.9%); for hospitalizations are 29 943 (-4.6%), 5956 (-5.5%), 3255 (-7.9%) and 4610 (-6.9%); and for crimes are 54 229 (-2.4%), 8528 (-2.5%), 4380 (-3.5%) and 8220 (-3.2%). Results vary among local authorities; for example, annual alcohol-attributable deaths estimated to change by between -8.0 and -24.8% throughout the 50 UTLAs examined. CONCLUSIONS: A minimum unit price local policy for alcohol is likely to be more effective in those regions, such as the three northern regions of England, which have higher levels of alcohol consumption and higher rates of alcohol harm than for the national average. In such regions, the minimum unit price policy would achieve larger reductions in alcohol consumption, alcohol-attributable mortality, hospitalization rates, NHS costs, crime rates and health inequalities.

Change and stability in British drinking practices and culture between 2009 and 2019: A longitudinal latent class analysis of drinking occasions.

Rationale: Theories of practice can support understanding of health-related behaviours, but few studies use quantitative methods to understand time-trends in practices. This paper describes changes in the prevalence and performance of alcohol drinking practices in Great Britain between 2009 and 2019. Methods: Latent class analyses of annual cross-sectional data collected between 2009 and 2019. The dataset come from a one-week retrospective diary survey of adults resident in Great Britain. It contains 604,578 drinking occasions reported by 213,470 adults (18+) who consumed alcohol in the diary-week. The measures describe occasion characteristics including companions, location, motivation, timings, accompanying activities and alcohol consumed. We estimate separate latent class models for each year and for off-trade only (e.g. home), on-trade only (e.g. bar) and mixed-trade occasions. Results: We identified fifteen practices; four off-trade only, eight on-trade only and three mixed-trade. The prevalence of practices was largely stable over time except for shifts away from drinking with a partner and towards drinking alone in the off-trade, and shifts away from Big nights out and towards other forms of heavy drinking in the on-trade. We identified five key trends in the performance of practices: (i) spirits increasingly replaced wine as the main beverage consumed in occasions; (ii) home-drinking moved away from routinised wine-drinking with meals on weekdays and towards spirits-drinking on weekends; (iii) the Male friends at the pub practice changed less than other pub-drinking practices; (iv) Big nights out started later, often in nightclubs, and involved less pub-drinking or heavy drinking and (v) the meal-based and Going out with partner practice formats showed few changes over time. Conclusion: Key recent trends in British drinking practices include a decline in routinised wine-drinking at home, a transformation of big nights out and a mixture of stability and change in pub- and meal-based practices.

Is disinvestment from alcohol and drug treatment services associated with treatment access, completions and related harm? An analysis of English expenditure and outcomes data.

INTRODUCTION: The positive impact of substance use treatment is well-evidenced but there has been substantial disinvestment from publicly funded treatment services in England since 2013/2014. This paper examines whether this disinvestment from adult alcohol and drug treatment provision was associated with changes in treatment and health outcomes, including: treatment access, successful completions from treatment, alcohol-specific hospital admissions, alcohol-specific mortality and drug-related deaths. METHODS: Annual administrative data from 2013/2014 to 2018/2019 was matched at local government level and multi-level time series analysis using linear mixed-effect modelling conducted for 151 upper-tier local authorities in England. RESULTS: Between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, £212.2 million was disinvested from alcohol and drug treatment services, representing a 27% decrease. Concurrently, 11% fewer people accessed, and 21% fewer successfully completed, treatment. On average, controlling for other potential explanatory factors, a £10 000 disinvestment from alcohol and drug treatment services was associated with reductions in all treatment outcomes, including 0.3 fewer adults in treatment (95% confidence interval 0.16-0.45) and 0.21 fewer adults successfully completing treatment (95% % confidence interval 0.12-0.29). A £10 000 disinvestment from alcohol treatment was not significantly associated with changes in alcohol-specific hospital admissions or mortality, nor was disinvestment from drug treatment associated with the rate of drug-related deaths. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Local authority spending cuts to alcohol and drug treatment services in England were associated with fewer people accessing and successfully completing alcohol and drug treatment but were not associated with changes in related hospital admissions and deaths.

The impact of changes in COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on alcohol consumption and drinking occasion characteristics in Scotland and England in 2020: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 lockdown restrictions affect alcohol consumption. However, existing studies lack data on how drinking practices changed as restrictions disrupted people's work, family life and socializing routines. We examined changes in consumption and drinking occasion characteristics during three periods of changing restrictions in Scotland/England. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series analysis of repeat cross-sectional market research data (assessing step-level changes). SETTING: Scotland/England, January 2009-December 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Scotland: 41 507 adult drinkers; England: 253 148 adult drinkers. MEASUREMENTS: Three intervention points: March 2020 lockdown, July 2020 easing of restrictions and October 2020 re-introduction of some restrictions. PRIMARY OUTCOME: mean units consumed per week (total/off-trade/on-trade; 1 unit = 8 g ethanol). SECONDARY OUTCOMES: drinking > 14 units per week, heavy drinking, drinking days per week, solitary drinking, drinking with family/partners, drinking with friends/colleagues, own-home drinking, drinking in someone else's home and drinking start times. FINDINGS: In Scotland, March 2020's lockdown was associated with a 2.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.61, 4.02] increase in off-trade (i.e. shop-bought) units per week, a -2.84 (95% CI = -3.63, -2.06) decrease in on-trade (i.e. licensed venues) units per week, but no statistically significant change in total units per week. July 2020's easing of restrictions was associated with a 1.33 (95% CI = 0.05, 2.62) increase in on-trade units per week, but no statistically significant total/off-trade consumption changes. October 2020's re-introduction of some restrictions was not associated with statistically significant consumption changes. Results for England were broadly similar. Lockdown restrictions were also associated with later drinking start times, fewer occasions in someone else's home and with friends/colleagues, more own-home drinking and (in Scotland only) more solitary drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in on-trade alcohol consumption following COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in Scotland/England in 2020 were mainly offset by increased own-home drinking. This largely persisted in periods of greater/lesser restrictions. The shift towards off-trade drinking involved significant changes in the characteristics of drinking occasions.

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa. METHODS: We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence. RESULTS: We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology.

An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012.

INTRODUCTION: The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) describes how attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control guide health behaviour, including alcohol consumption. Dual Process Theories (DPT) suggest that alongside these reasoned pathways, behaviour is influenced by automatic processes that are determined by the frequency of engagement in the health behaviour in the past. We present a computational model integrating TPB and DPT to determine drinking decisions for simulated individuals. We explore whether this model can reproduce historical patterns in US population alcohol use and simulate a hypothetical scenario, "Dry January", to demonstrate the utility of the model for appraising the impact of policy interventions on population alcohol use. METHOD: Constructs from the TPB pathway were computed using equations from an existing individual-level dynamic simulation model of alcohol use. The DPT pathway was initialised by simulating individuals' past drinking using data from a large US survey. Individuals in the model were from a US population microsimulation that accounts for births, deaths and migration (1984-2015). On each modelled day, for each individual, we calculated standard drinks consumed using the TPB or DPT pathway. In each year we computed total population alcohol use prevalence, frequency and quantity. The model was calibrated to alcohol use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1984-2004). RESULTS: The model was a good fit to prevalence and frequency but a poorer fit to quantity of alcohol consumption, particularly in males. Simulating Dry January in each year led to a small to moderate reduction in annual population drinking. CONCLUSION: This study provides further evidence, at the whole population level, that a combination of reasoned and implicit processes are important for alcohol use. Alcohol misuse interventions should target both processes. The integrated TPB-DPT simulation model is a useful tool for estimating changes in alcohol consumption following hypothetical population interventions.

Estimated effect of alcohol pricing policies on health and health economic outcomes in England: an epidemiological model.

BACKGROUND: Although pricing policies for alcohol are known to be effective, little is known about how specific interventions affect health-care costs and health-related quality-of-life outcomes for different types of drinkers. We assessed effects of alcohol pricing and promotion policy options in various population subgroups. METHODS: We built an epidemiological mathematical model to appraise 18 pricing policies, with English data from the Expenditure and Food Survey and the General Household Survey for average and peak alcohol consumption. We used results from econometric analyses (256 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates) to estimate effects of policies on alcohol consumption. We applied risk functions from systemic reviews and meta-analyses, or derived from attributable fractions, to model the effect of consumption changes on mortality and disease prevalence for 47 illnesses. FINDINGS: General price increases were effective for reduction of consumption, health-care costs, and health-related quality of life losses in all population subgroups. Minimum pricing policies can maintain this level of effectiveness for harmful drinkers while reducing effects on consumer spending for moderate drinkers. Total bans of supermarket and off-license discounting are effective but banning only large discounts has little effect. Young adult drinkers aged 18-24 years are especially affected by policies that raise prices in pubs and bars. INTERPRETATION: Minimum pricing policies and discounting restrictions might warrant further consideration because both strategies are estimated to reduce alcohol consumption, and related health harms and costs, with drinker spending increases targeting those who incur most harm. FUNDING: Policy Research Programme, UK Department of Health.