Direct Comparison between Bayesian and Frequentist Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Reactions.

Until recently, uncertainty quantification in low energy nuclear theory was typically performed using frequentist approaches. However in the last few years, the field has shifted toward Bayesian statistics for evaluating confidence intervals. Although there are statistical arguments to prefer the Bayesian approach, no direct comparison is available. In this work, we compare, directly and systematically, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainties in direct nuclear reactions. Starting from identical initial assumptions, we determine confidence intervals associated with the elastic and the transfer process for both methods, which are evaluated against data via a comparison of the empirical coverage probabilities. Expectedly, the frequentist approach is not as flexible as the Bayesian approach in exploring parameter space and often ends up in a different minimum. We also show that the two methods produce significantly different correlations. In the end, the frequentist approach produces significantly narrower uncertainties on the considered observables than the Bayesian. Our study demonstrates that the uncertainties on the reaction observables considered here within the Bayesian approach represent reality more accurately than the much narrower uncertainties obtained using the standard frequentist approach.

Prospective association between the dietary inflammatory index and metabolic syndrome: findings from the SU.VI.MAX study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevention of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is of major concern and nutrition has been shown to modulate at least partly MetS risk. Our objective was to investigate whether a pro-inflammatory diet was associated with a higher risk of MetS and its components in a large cohort of French adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 3726 participants from the Supplémentation en Vitamines et Minéraux AntioXydants (SU.VI.MAX) cohort were included in this study. The MetS status was identified at baseline and after 13 years of follow-up using self-reported medication, data from clinical investigations and biological measurements. The dietary inflammatory index (DII) was computed using repeated 24 h-dietary records (n = 10.1 ± 3.1). Logistic and linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the prospective association of the DII (as Q, quartiles) with the incidence of MetS and with the traits contributing to the MetS-definition (blood pressure, glycaemia, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, waist circumference). A diet with pro-inflammatory properties, as expressed by higher DII scores, was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing the MetS (OR comparing Q4 to Q1: 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.92, P = 0.047). Moreover, higher DII scores were associated with higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure (Ptrend across quartiles = 0.03 and 0.05, respectively) and triglycerides (Ptrend = 0.01), and with lower HDL-cholesterol (Ptrend = 0.03). CONCLUSION: A higher DII score was prospectively associated with a higher risk of MetS, with associations with blood pressure, triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol. Promotion of a healthy diet exhibiting anti-inflammatory properties may contribute to prevent cardio-metabolic disorders.