Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584. FINDINGS: Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in a large US health system: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Globally, recommendations are expanding for third (booster) doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). In the United States, as of November 19, 2021, boosters were recommended for all adults aged 18 years and older. We evaluated the effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 among adults in a large US integrated health system. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between Dec 14, 2020 and Dec 5, 2021 to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two and three doses of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infections (without hospital admission) andCOVID-19-related hospital admission. VE was calculated using hazards ratios from adjusted Cox models. Findings: After only two doses, VE against infection declined from 85% (95% CI 83-86) during the first month to 49% (46-51) ≥ 7 months following vaccination. Overall VE against hospitalization was 90% (95% CI 86-92) within one month and did not wane, however, effectiveness against hospitalization appeared to wane among immunocompromised individuals but was not statistically significant (93% [72-98] at 1 month to 74% [45-88] after ≥ 7 months; p=0·490). Three-dose VE (median follow-up 1·3 months [SD 0·6]) was 88% (95% CI 86-89) against infection and 97% (95-98) against hospitalization. Effectiveness after three doses was higher than that seen one month after receiving only two doses for both outcomes. Relative VE of three doses compared to two (with at least six months after the second dose) was 75% (95% CI 71-78) against infections and 70% (48-83) against hospital admissions. Interpretation: These data support the benefit of broad BNT162b2 booster recommendations, as three doses confers comparable, if not better, protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admission as was seen soon after receiving two doses. Funding: Pfizer Inc.