International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects.

There are over 250,000 international treaties that aim to foster global cooperation. But are treaties actually helpful for addressing global challenges? This systematic field-wide evidence synthesis of 224 primary studies and meta-analysis of the higher-quality 82 studies finds treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects. The only exceptions are treaties governing international trade and finance, which consistently produced intended effects. We also found evidence that impactful treaties achieve their effects through socialization and normative processes rather than longer-term legal processes and that enforcement mechanisms are the only modifiable treaty design choice with the potential to improve the effectiveness of treaties governing environmental, human rights, humanitarian, maritime, and security policy domains. This evidence synthesis raises doubts about the value of international treaties that neither regulate trade or finance nor contain enforcement mechanisms.

Beyond MPOWER: a systematic review of population-level factors that affect European tobacco smoking rates.

BACKGROUND: Population-level factors within and beyond the scope of the World Health Organization's (WHO) MPOWER policy package have significant impacts on smoking rates. However, no synthesis of the existing evidence exists. This systematic review identifies population-level factors that influence cigarette smoking rates in European countries. METHODS: We searched the ProQuest database collection for original, peer-reviewed quantitative evaluations that investigated the effects of population-level exposures on smoking rates in European countries. Of the 3122 studies screened, 62 were ultimately included in the review. A standardized data extraction form was used to identify key characteristics of each study including publication year, years evaluated, countries studied, population characteristics, study design, data sources, analytic methods, exposure studied, relevant covariates and effects on tobacco smoking outcomes. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-five population-level exposures were extracted from the 62 studies included in the review, 99 of which were related to WHO MPOWER measures. An additional 56 exposures fell into eight policy realms: economic crises, education policy, macro-economic factors, non-MPOWER tobacco regulations, population welfare, public policy, sales to minors and unemployment rates. About one-half of the MPOWER exposures affected smoking rates (55/99) and did so in an overwhelmingly positive way (55/55). Over three-quarters of the non-MPOWER exposures were associated with statistically significant changes in smoking outcomes (43/56), with about two-thirds of these exposures leading to a decrease in smoking (29/43). CONCLUSIONS: Population-level factors that fall outside of the WHO's MPOWER measures are an understudied research area. The impacts of these factors on tobacco control should be considered by policymakers.

Is the lack of smartphone data skewing wealth indices in low-income settings?

BACKGROUND: Smartphones have rapidly become an important marker of wealth in low- and middle-income countries, but international household surveys do not regularly gather data on smartphone ownership and these data are rarely used to calculate wealth indices. METHODS: We developed a cross-sectional survey module delivered to 3028 households in rural northwest Burkina Faso to measure the effects of this absence. Wealth indices were calculated using both principal components analysis (PCA) and polychoric PCA for a base model using only ownership of any cell phone, and a full model using data on smartphone ownership, the number of cell phones, and the purchase of mobile data. Four outcomes (household expenditure, education level, and prevalence of frailty and diabetes) were used to evaluate changes in the composition of wealth index quintiles using ordinary least squares and logistic regressions and Wald tests. RESULTS: Households that own smartphones have higher monthly expenditures and own a greater quantity and quality of household assets. Expenditure and education levels are significantly higher at the fifth (richest) socioeconomic status (SES) quintile of full model wealth indices as compared to base models. Similarly, diabetes prevalence is significantly higher at the fifth SES quintile using PCA wealth index full models, but this is not observed for frailty prevalence, which is more prevalent among lower SES households. These effects are not present when using polychoric PCA, suggesting that this method provides additional robustness to missing asset data to measure underlying latent SES by proxy. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of smartphone data can skew PCA-based wealth index performance in a low-income context for the top of the socioeconomic spectrum. While some PCA variants may be robust to the omission of smartphone ownership, eliciting smartphone ownership data in household surveys is likely to substantially improve the validity and utility of wealth estimates.

Geographic Targeting and Normative Frames: Revisiting the Equity of Conditional Cash Transfer Program Distribution in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

BACKGROUND: Four Andean countries of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru introduced national health-focused conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in the 2000s. This study probes whether policymakers in these countries targeted CCT programs to subregions with the highest prevalence of ill-health or those with the lowest socioeconomic status (SES) to evaluate the equity of geographic targeting and means-testing, as well as the potential role of normative frames, bounded rationality, and clientelism as explanatory mechanisms for inequities in social spending. METHODS: The distribution of vaccination coverage, underweight, stunting, and child deaths is established both within and between subnational regions and SES quintiles from 1998 to 2012 using every available nationally representative household survey. The equity of CCT program targeting and strength of association with subregional SES and health outcomes are measured using generalized entropy index decomposition and meta-regression. Finally, simple predictive models for CCT targeting are created using lagged subregional SES, health outcomes, and concentration indices. RESULTS: Bolivia and Peru both effectively targeted at-risk subregions, but subregions in Peru with no CCT program coverage result in higher mistargeting rates for the country as a whole. Only Bolivia failed to attain CCT coverage concentration indices that are at least as large as the health inequalities they are targeting. Despite this insufficient progressivity, Bolivia has the most efficient subregional targeting, while the lowest rates of mistargeting for child deaths are found in Colombia and Ecuador. Finally, the simple predictive model performs as well or better than observed CCT coverage distribution for every country, year, and outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Both Peru and Ecuador have targeted programs to their poorest populations effectively, demonstrating that this is possible with both universal and geographic targeting. No clear evidence of clientelism was found, while the dominant normative frame underlying CCT program targeting decisions appears to be the relative SES of subregions, rather than absolute SES, prevalence of health outcomes, or health inequalities. To reduce the inequitable impacts of bounded rationality, policymakers can use simple predictive models to target CCT coverage effectively and without leaving behind the most vulnerable populations that happen to live in more affluent subregions.

Systematic comparison of household income, consumption, and assets to measure health inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.

There has been no systematic comparison of how the three most common measures to quantify household SES-income, consumption, and asset indices-could impact the magnitude of health inequalities. Microdata from 22 Living Standards Measurement Study surveys were compiled and concentration indices, relative indices of inequality, and slope indices of inequality were calculated for underweight, stunting, and child deaths using income, consumption, asset indices, and hybrid predicted income. Meta-analyses of survey year subgroups (pre-1995, 1995-2004, and post-2004), outcomes (child deaths, stunting, and underweight), and World Bank country-income status (low, low-middle, and upper-middle) were then conducted. Asset indices and the related hybrid income proxy result in the largest magnitudes of health inequalities for all 12 overall outcomes, as well as most country-income and survey year subgroupings. There is no clear trend of health inequality magnitudes changing over time, but magnitudes of health inequality may increase as country-income levels increase. There is no significant difference between relative and absolute inequality measures, but the hybrid predicted income measure behaves more similarly to asset indices than the household income it is supposed to model. Health inequality magnitudes may be affected by the choice of household SES measure and should be studied in further detail.

Quasi-experimental evaluation of national border closures on COVID-19 transmission.

With over 200 pandemic threats emerging every year, the efficacy of closing national borders to control the transmission of disease in the first months of a pandemic remains a critically important question. Previous studies offer conflicting evidence for the potential effects of these closures on COVID-19 transmission and no study has yet empirically evaluated the global impact of border closures using quasi-experimental methods and real-world data. We triangulate results from interrupted time-series analysis, meta-regression, coarsened exact matching, and an extensive series of robustness checks to evaluate the effect of 166 countries' national border closures on the global transmission of COVID-19. Total border closures banning non-essential travel from all countries and (to a lesser extent) targeted border closures banning travel from specific countries had some effect on temporarily slowing COVID-19 transmission in those countries that implemented them. In contrast to these country-level impacts, the global sum of targeted border closures implemented by February 5, 2020 was not sufficient to slow global COVID-19 transmission, but the sum of total border closures implemented by March 19, 2020 did achieve this effect. Country-level results were highly heterogeneous, with early implementation and border closures so broadly targeted that they resemble total border closures improving the likelihood of slowing the pandemic's spread. Governments that can make productive use of extra preparation time and cannot feasibly implement less restrictive alternatives might consider enacting border closures. However, given their moderate and uncertain impacts and their significant harms, border closures are unlikely to be the best policy response for most countries and should only be deployed in rare circumstances and with great caution. All countries would benefit from global mechanisms to coordinate national decisions on border closures during pandemics.

Informality, Social Citizenship, and Wellbeing among Migrant Workers in Costa Rica in the Context of COVID-19.

Costa Rica is home to 557,000 migrants, whose disproportionate exposure to precarious, dangerous, and informal work has resulted in persistent inequities in health and wellbeing in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used a novel multimodal grounded approach synthesizing documentary film, experiential education, and academic research to explore socioecological wellbeing among Nicaraguan migrant workers in Costa Rica. Participants pointed to the COVID-19 pandemic as exacerbating the underlying conditions of vulnerability, such as precarity and informality, dangerous working conditions, social and systemic discrimination, and additional burdens faced by women. However, the narrative that emerged most consistently in shaping migrants' experience of marginalization were challenges in obtaining documentation-both in the form of legal residency and health insurance coverage. Our results demonstrate that, in spite of Costa Rica's acclaimed social welfare policies, migrant workers continue to face exclusion due to administrative, social, and financial barriers. These findings paint a rich picture of how multiple intersections of precarious, informal, and dangerous working conditions; social and systemic discrimination; gendered occupational challenges; and access to legal residency and health insurance coverage combine to prevent the full achievement of a shared minimum standard of social and economic security for migrant workers in Costa Rica.

Adopting a Global AMR Target within the Pandemic Instrument Will Act as a Catalyst for Action.

Ensuring that life-saving antimicrobials remain available as effective treatment options in the face of rapidly rising levels of antimicrobial resistance will require a massive and coordinated global effort. Setting a collective direction for progress is the first step towards aligning global efforts on AMR. This process would be greatly accelerated by adopting a unifying global target - a well-defined global target that unites all countries and sectors. The proposed pandemic instrument - with its focus on prevention, preparedness and response - represents an ideal opportunity to develop and adopt a unifying global target that catalyzes global action on AMR. We propose three key characteristics of a unifying global target for AMR that - if embedded within the pandemic preparedness instrument - could rally public support, funding, and political commitment commensurate with the scale of the AMR challenge.

Principles and methods of global legal epidemiology.

Although the theory and methods of legal epidemiology-the scientific study and deployment of law as a factor in the cause, distribution, and prevention of disease and injury in a population-have been well developed in the context of domestic law, the challenges posed by shifting the frame of analysis to the global legal space have not yet been fully explored. While legal epidemiology rests on the foundational principles that law acts as an intervention, that law can be an object of scientific study and that law has impacts that should be evaluated, its application to the global level requires the recognition that international laws, policies and norms can cause effects independently from their legal implementation within countries. The global legal space blurs distinctions between 'hard' and 'soft' law, often operating through pathways of global agenda setting, legal language, political pressures, social mobilisation and trade pressures to have direct impacts on people, places and products. Despite these complexities, international law has been overwhelmingly studied as operating solely through national policy change, with only one global quasi-experimental evaluation of an international law's impact on health published to date. To promote greater adoption of global legal epidemiology, we expand on an existing typology of public health law studies with examples of policymaking, mapping, implementation, intervention and mechanism studies. Global legal epidemiology holds great promise as a way to produce rigorous and impactful research on the international laws, policies and norms that shape our collective health, equity and well-being.

The socio-economic distribution of exposure to Ebola: Survey evidence from Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Socio-economic factors are widely believed to have been an important driver of the transmission of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) during the West African outbreak of 2014-16, however, studies that have investigated the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and EVD have found inconsistent results. Using nationally representative household survey data on whether respondents knew a close friend or family member with Ebola, we explore the SES determinants of EVD exposure along individual, household, and community lines in Liberia and Sierra Leone. While we find no overall association between household wealth and EVD exposure, we find that pooled data mask important differences observed within countries with higher wealth households more likely to have been exposed to EVD in Sierra Leone and the opposite relationship in Liberia. Finally, we also generally find a positive association between education and EVD exposure both at the individual and the community levels in the full sample. There is an urgent need to better understand these relationships to examine both why the outbreak spread and to help prepare for future outbreaks.

Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption. DESIGN: Two quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world's cigarette consumption and 85% of the world's population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling). RESULTS: No significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC's adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.

Transnational wealth-related health inequality measurement.

The study of international differences in wealth-related health inequalities has traditionally consisted of country-by-country comparisons using own-country relative measures of socioeconomic status, which effectively ignores absolute differences in both wealth and health that can differ between and within countries. To address these limitations, we propose an alternative approach: that of constructing a transnational measure of wealth-related health inequality. To illustrate the limitations of the country-by-country approach, we simulate the impact of changes in wealth and health inequalities both between and within countries on cross-country measures of health inequality and find at least five errors that may arise using country-by-country methods. We then empirically demonstrate the transnational approach to wealth-related health inequalities between and within Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the two constituent countries of the island of Hispaniola, using data from their respective Demographic and Health Surveys. Transnational socioeconomic rankings reveal a large and increasing divergence in wealth between the two countries, which would be ignored using the county-by-country approach. We find that wealth-related inequalities in long-term children's health outcomes are larger than inequalities in short-term health outcomes, and decompositions of the influence of place-based variables on these inequalities reveal country of residence to be the most important factor for long-term outcomes, while urban/rural residence and subnational regions are more important for short-term health outcomes. The significance of this novel methodological approach in relation to conventional health inequality research, including hidden dimensions of wealth-related health inequalities, for example the urbanized "middle class" distribution of HIV and a hidden unequal burden of wasting among children uncovered by the transnational approach are discussed, and errors in gauging changes in inequality over time using a country-by-country approach are highlighted. Using the transnational approach can help to measure important trends in wealth-related health inequalities across countries that more commonly used methods traditionally overlook.