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1.
Nephrol Dial Transplant ; 39(4): 627-636, 2024 Mar 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37667539

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: While opportunistic infections are a frequent and challenging problem in kidney transplant recipients, their long-term epidemiology remains hardly known. METHODS: Opportunistic infections were recorded in 1144 recipients transplanted in our center between 2004 and 2015. Incidence rates and baseline risk factors were determined using joint frailty models. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.6 years, 544 opportunistic infections occurred in 373/1144 (33%) patients, dominated by viral infections (396/544, 72%), especially cytomegalovirus (CMV) syndromes and diseases (213/544, 39%). One-third of the infected patients experienced at least two opportunistic infections. The incidence of opportunistic infections was 10 times higher during the first year post-transplantation than after that (34.7 infections for 100 patient-years vs 3.64). Opportunistic infections associated with the age of the donor (P = .032), the age of the recipient (P = .049), the CMV serostatus (P < 10-6), a higher class II HLA mismatch (P = .032) and an induction treatment including rabbit anti-thymocyte globulins (P = .026). Repeated opportunistic infections associated with each other (P < 10-6) and with renal death (P < 10-6). CONCLUSION: Opportunistic infections occur with a two-period incidence pattern and many susceptible patients suffer from repeated episodes. This knowledge may help tailor new prevention and follow-up strategies to reduce the burden of opportunistic infections and their impact on transplantation outcome.


Assuntos
Infecções por Citomegalovirus , Transplante de Rim , Infecções Oportunistas , Humanos , Infecções por Citomegalovirus/tratamento farmacológico , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Transplante de Rim/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Citomegalovirus , Infecções Oportunistas/etiologia , Transplantados
2.
Stat Med ; 43(12): 2389-2402, 2024 May 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38564224

RESUMO

Joint models linking longitudinal biomarkers or recurrent event processes with a terminal event, for example, mortality, have been studied extensively. Motivated by studies of recurrent delirium events in patients receiving care in an intensive care unit (ICU), we devise a joint model for a recurrent event process and multiple terminal events. Being discharged alive from the ICU or experiencing mortality may be associated with a patient's hazard of delirium, violating the assumption of independent censoring. Moreover, the direction of the association between the hazards of delirium and mortality may be opposite of the direction of association between the hazards of delirium and ICU discharge. Hence treating either terminal event as independent censoring may bias inferences. We propose a competing joint model that uses a latent frailty to link a patient's recurrent and competing terminal event processes. We fit our model to data from a completed placebo-controlled clinical trial, which studied whether Haloperidol could prevent death and delirium among ICU patients. The clinical trial served as a foundation for a simulation study, in which we evaluate the properties, for example, bias and confidence interval coverage, of the competing joint model. As part of the simulation study, we demonstrate the shortcomings of using a joint model with a recurrent delirium process and a single terminal event to study delirium in the ICU. Lastly, we discuss limitations and possible extensions for the competing joint model. The competing joint model has been added to frailtypack, an R package for fitting an assortment of joint models.


Assuntos
Delírio , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Modelos Estatísticos , Delírio/tratamento farmacológico , Delírio/etiologia , Humanos , Recidiva , Simulação por Computador , Haloperidol/uso terapêutico , Fragilidade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
3.
J Biopharm Stat ; : 1-16, 2024 Feb 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38334044

RESUMO

In epidemiology and clinical research, recurrent events refer to individuals who are likely to experience transient clinical events repeatedly over an observation period. Examples include hospitalizations in patients with heart failure, fractures in osteoporosis studies and the occurrence of new lesions in oncology. We provided an in-depth analysis of the sample size required for the analysis of recurrent time-to-event data using multifrailty or multilevel survival models. We covered the topic from the simple shared frailty model to models with hierarchical or joint frailties. We relied on a Wald-type test statistic to estimate the sample size assuming either a single or multiple endpoints. Simulations revealed that the sample size increased as heterogeneity increased. We also observed that it was more attractive to include more patients and reduce the duration of follow-up than to include fewer patients and increase the duration of follow-up to obtain the number of events required. Each model investigated can address the question of the number of subjects for recurrent events. However, depending on the research question, one model will be more suitable than another. We illustrated our methodology with the AFFIRM-AHF trial investigating the effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in patients hospitalised for acute heart failure.

4.
Pharm Stat ; 23(1): 60-80, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37717945

RESUMO

The sum of the longest diameter (SLD) of the target lesions is a longitudinal biomarker used to assess tumor response in cancer clinical trials, which can inform about early treatment effect. This biomarker is semicontinuous, often characterized by an excess of zeros and right skewness. Conditional two-part joint models were introduced to account for the excess of zeros in the longitudinal biomarker distribution and link it to a time-to-event outcome. A limitation of the conditional two-part model is that it only provides an effect of covariates, such as treatment, on the conditional mean of positive biomarker values, and not an overall effect on the biomarker, which is often of clinical relevance. As an alternative, we propose in this article, a marginalized two-part joint model (M-TPJM) for the repeated measurements of the SLD and a terminal event, where the covariates affect the overall mean of the biomarker. Our simulation studies assessed the good performance of the marginalized model in terms of estimation and coverage rates. Our application of the M-TPJM to a randomized clinical trial of advanced head and neck cancer shows that the combination of panitumumab in addition with chemotherapy increases the odds of observing a disappearance of all target lesions compared to chemotherapy alone, leading to a possible indirect effect of the combined treatment on time to death.


Assuntos
Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Modelos Estatísticos , Humanos , Simulação por Computador , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/tratamento farmacológico , Biomarcadores , Estudos Longitudinais
5.
Pharm Stat ; 2024 Jul 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39014905

RESUMO

Biomarker-guided therapy is a growing area of research in medicine. To optimize the use of biomarkers, several study designs including the biomarker-strategy design (BSD) have been proposed. Unlike traditional designs, the emphasis here is on comparing treatment strategies and not on treatment molecules as such. Patients are assigned to either a biomarker-based strategy (BBS) arm, in which biomarker-positive patients receive an experimental treatment that targets the identified biomarker, or a non-biomarker-based strategy (NBBS) arm, in which patients receive treatment regardless of their biomarker status. We proposed a simulation method based on a partially clustered frailty model (PCFM) as well as an extension of Freidlin formula to estimate the sample size required for BSD with multiple targeted treatments. The sample size was mainly influenced by the heterogeneity of treatment effect, the proportion of biomarker-negative patients, and the randomization ratio. The PCFM is well suited for the data structure and offers an alternative to traditional methodologies.

6.
Biostatistics ; 2022 Nov 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36398615

RESUMO

With the ongoing development of treatments and the resulting increase in survival in oncology, clinical trials based on endpoints such as overall survival may require long follow-up periods to observe sufficient events and ensure adequate statistical power. This increase in follow-up time may compromise the feasibility of the study. The use of surrogate endpoints instead of final endpoints may be attractive for these studies. However, before a surrogate can be used in a clinical trial, it must be statistically validated. In this article, we propose an approach to validate surrogates when both the surrogate and final endpoints are censored event times. This approach is developed for meta-analytic data and uses a mediation analysis to decompose the total effect of the treatment on the final endpoint as a direct effect and an indirect effect through the surrogate. The meta-analytic nature of the data is accounted for in a joint model with random effects at the trial level. The proportion of the indirect effect over the total effect of the treatment on the final endpoint can be computed from the parameters of the model and used as a measure of surrogacy. We applied this method to investigate time-to-relapse as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in resectable gastric cancer.

7.
Biostatistics ; 23(1): 50-68, 2022 01 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32282877

RESUMO

Joint models for a longitudinal biomarker and a terminal event have gained interests for evaluating cancer clinical trials because the tumor evolution reflects directly the state of the disease. A biomarker characterizing the tumor size evolution over time can be highly informative for assessing treatment options and could be taken into account in addition to the survival time. The biomarker often has a semicontinuous distribution, i.e., it is zero inflated and right skewed. An appropriate model is needed for the longitudinal biomarker as well as an association structure with the survival outcome. In this article, we propose a joint model for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a survival time. The semicontinuous nature of the longitudinal biomarker is specified by a two-part model, which splits its distribution into a binary outcome (first part) represented by the positive versus zero values and a continuous outcome (second part) with the positive values only. Survival times are modeled with a proportional hazards model for which we propose three association structures with the biomarker. Our simulation studies show some bias can arise in the parameter estimates when the semicontinuous nature of the biomarker is ignored, assuming the true model is a two-part model. An application to advanced metastatic colorectal cancer data from the GERCOR study is performed where our two-part model is compared to one-part joint models. Our results show that treatment arm B (FOLFOX6/FOLFIRI) is associated to higher SLD values over time and its positive association with the terminal event leads to an increased risk of death compared to treatment arm A (FOLFIRI/FOLFOX6).


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Modelos Estatísticos , Biomarcadores , Neoplasias Colorretais/tratamento farmacológico , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais
8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38012126

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests overestimation of benefits associated with arteriovenous (AV) fistula versus graft in certain populations. We assessed hazards of all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization and death associated with AV access type in patients who started hemodialysis with a catheter in France, overall and by subgroups of age, sex, and comorbidities. METHODS: From the REIN Registry, we included patients who initiated hemodialysis with a catheter from 2010 through 2018, and identified first-created fistula or graft through the French national health-administrative database. We used joint frailty models to deal with recurrent hospitalizations and potential informative censoring by death, and inverse probability weighting to account for confounding. RESULTS: From the 18 800 patients included (mean age 68 ± 15 years, 35% women), 5% underwent AV graft creation first. Weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of all-cause hospitalization associated with graft was 1.08 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.15), that of vascular access-related hospitalization was 1.43 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.55), and those of cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations were 1.14 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.26) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.28), respectively. Results were consistent for most subgroups, except that the highest hazard of all-cause, cardiovascular-, and infection- related hospitalizations with graft was blunted in patients with comorbidities (i.e. diabetes, wHR 1.01, 95% CI 0.93 -1.10; 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.26; and 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.12, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients starting hemodialysis with a catheter, AV graft creation is associated with increased hazard of vascular access-related hospitalizations compared to fistula. This may not be the case for death or other causes of hospitalization.

9.
Stat Med ; 42(8): 1233-1262, 2023 04 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36775273

RESUMO

This article focuses on shared frailty models for correlated failure times, as well as joint frailty models for the simultaneous analysis of recurrent events (eg, appearance of new cancerous lesions or hospital readmissions) and a major terminal event (typically, death). As extensions of the Cox model, these joint models usually assume a frailty proportional hazards model for each of the recurrent and terminal event processes. In order to extend these models beyond the proportional hazards assumption, our proposal is to replace these proportional hazards models with generalized survival models, for which the survival function is modeled as a linear predictor through a link function. Depending on the link function considered, these can be reduced to proportional hazards, proportional odds, additive hazards, or probit models. We first consider a fully parametric framework for the time and covariate effects. For proportional and additive hazards models, our approach also allows the use of smooth functions for baseline hazard functions and time-varying coefficients. The dependence between recurrent and terminal event processes is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty acting differently on the two processes. Parameter estimates are provided using the maximum (penalized) likelihood method, implemented in the R package frailtypack (function GenfrailtyPenal). We perform simulation studies to assess the method, which is also illustrated on real datasets.


Assuntos
Fragilidade , Humanos , Análise de Sobrevida , Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Estatísticos
10.
Biom J ; 65(4): e2100322, 2023 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36846925

RESUMO

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., a large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using the INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications.


Assuntos
Modelos Estatísticos , Neoplasias , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Simulação por Computador , Algoritmos
11.
Biometrics ; 78(4): 1662-1673, 2022 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34242412

RESUMO

A key issue when designing clinical trials is the estimation of the number of subjects required. Assuming for multicenter trials or biomarker-stratified designs that the effect size between treatment arms is the same among the whole study population might be inappropriate. Limited work is available for properly determining the sample size for such trials. However, we need to account for both, the heterogeneity of the baseline hazards over clusters or strata but also the heterogeneity of the treatment effects, otherwise sample size estimates might be biased. Most existing methods account for either heterogeneous baseline hazards or treatment effects but they dot not allow to simultaneously account for both sources of variations. This article proposes an approach to calculate sample size formula for clustered or stratified survival data relying on frailty models. Both theoretical derivations and simulation results show the proposed approach can guarantee the desired power in worst case scenarios and is often much more efficient than existing approaches. Application to a real clinical trial designs is also illustrated.


Assuntos
Neoplasias , Humanos , Tamanho da Amostra , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Neoplasias/terapia , Simulação por Computador , Projetos de Pesquisa
12.
Biom J ; 63(2): 423-446, 2021 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33006170

RESUMO

In a meta-analysis framework, the classical approach for the validation of time-to-event surrogate endpoint is based on a two-step analysis. This approach often raises estimation issues. Recently, we proposed a one-step validation approach based on a joint frailty model. This approach was quite time consuming, despite parallel computing, due to individual-level frailties used to take into account heterogeneity in the data at the individual level. We now propose an alternative one-step approach for evaluating surrogacy, using a joint frailty-copula model. The model includes two correlated random effects treatment-by-trial interaction and a shared random effect associated with the baseline risks. At the individual level, the joint survivor functions of time-to-event endpoints are linked using copula functions. We used splines for the baseline hazard functions. We estimated parameters and hazard function using a semiparametric penalized marginal likelihood method, considering various numerical integration methods. Both individual-level and trial-level surrogacy were evaluated using Kendall's tau and coefficient of determination. The performance of the estimators was evaluated using simulation studies. The model was applied to individual patient data meta-analyses in advanced ovarian cancer to assess progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival, as part of the evaluation of new therapy. The model showed good performance and was quite robust regarding the integration methods and data variation, regardless of the surrogacy evaluation criteria. Kendall's Tau was better estimated using the Clayton copula model compared to the joint frailty model. The proposed model reduces the convergence and model estimation issues encountered in the two-step approach.


Assuntos
Fragilidade , Biomarcadores , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Projetos de Pesquisa
13.
Respir Res ; 21(1): 158, 2020 Jun 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32571311

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) clinical trials aimed at evaluating treatment effects on exacerbations often suffer from early discontinuations of randomized treatment. Treatment discontinuations imply a loss of information and should ideally be considered in the statistical analysis of trial results, particularly if the discontinuations are related to the disease or treatment itself. Here, we explore this issue by investigating (1) whether there exists an association between the risks of exacerbation and treatment discontinuation in COPD clinical trials and (2) whether disregarding this association can cause bias in exacerbation treatment effect estimates. We focus on the hypothetical estimand, i.e. the treatment effect that would have been observed had all subjects completed the trial as planned. METHODS: The association between exacerbation and discontinuation risks was analysed by applying a joint frailty (random effect) model - allowing for the simultaneous analysis of multiple types of correlated events - to data from five Phase III-IV COPD clinical trials. Specifically, the impact of the association on exacerbation treatment effect estimates was assessed by comparing the treatment hazard ratios of the joint frailty model to the rate/hazard ratios of two related statistical models (the negative binomial and shared frailty models), which both assume discontinuations to be unrelated to the trial outcome. The models were also compared using simulated data. RESULTS: A statistically significant (p < 0.0001), positive association between exacerbation and discontinuation risks was found in all trials. Importantly, simulations confirmed that - with such an association - models disregarding the association risk producing biased results (> 5 percentage point difference in hazard/rate ratio). For some treatment comparisons in the clinical trials, the difference in treatment effect estimates between the joint frailty and the other models was as high as 10-15 percentage points. The difference was affected by the strength of the exacerbation-discontinuation association, the population heterogeneity in exacerbation risk, and the difference in discontinuation rates between treatment arms. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified an association between the risks of exacerbation and treatment discontinuation in five COPD clinical trials. We recommend using the joint frailty model to account for this association when estimating exacerbation treatment effects, particularly when targeting the hypothetical estimand.


Assuntos
Progressão da Doença , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/epidemiologia , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/normas , Suspensão de Tratamento/tendências , Ensaios Clínicos Fase III como Assunto/normas , Ensaios Clínicos Fase IV como Assunto/normas , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Fragilidade/tratamento farmacológico , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estudos Multicêntricos como Assunto/normas , Inibidores da Fosfodiesterase 4/administração & dosagem , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/diagnóstico , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
14.
Stat Med ; 38(16): 2928-2942, 2019 07 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30997685

RESUMO

A surrogate endpoint can be used instead of the most relevant clinical endpoint to assess the efficiency of a new treatment. Before being used, a surrogate endpoint must be validated based on appropriate methods. Numerous validation approaches have been proposed with the most popular used in a context of meta-analysis, based on a two-step analysis strategy. For two failure-time endpoints, two association measurements are usually used, Kendall's τ at the individual level and the adjusted coefficient of determination ( Rtrial,adj2 ) at the trial level. However, Rtrial,adj2 is not always available due to model estimation constraints. We propose a one-step validation approach based on a joint frailty model, including both individual-level and trial-level random effects. Parameters have been estimated using a semiparametric penalized marginal log-likelihood method, and various numerical integration approaches were considered. Both individual- and trial-level surrogacy were evaluated using a new definition of Kendall's τ and the coefficient of determination. Estimators' performances were evaluated using simulation studies and satisfactory results were found. The model was applied to individual patient data meta-analyses in gastric cancer to assess disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival, as part of the evaluation of adjuvant therapy.


Assuntos
Determinação de Ponto Final/métodos , Funções Verossimilhança , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Biomarcadores , Simulação por Computador , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Humanos , Metanálise como Assunto , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
15.
Stat Med ; 38(22): 4348-4362, 2019 09 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31290191

RESUMO

The process by which patients experience a series of recurrent events, such as hospitalizations, may be subject to death. In cohort studies, one strategy for analyzing such data is to fit a joint frailty model for the intensities of the recurrent event and death, which estimates covariate effects on the two event types while accounting for their dependence. When certain covariates are difficult to obtain, however, researchers may only have the resources to subsample patients on whom to collect complete data: one way is using the nested case-control (NCC) design, in which risk set sampling is performed based on a single outcome. We develop a general framework for the design of NCC studies in the presence of recurrent and terminal events and propose estimation and inference for a joint frailty model for recurrence and death using data arising from such studies. We propose a maximum weighted penalized likelihood approach using flexible spline models for the baseline intensity functions. Two standard error estimators are proposed: a sandwich estimator and a perturbation resampling procedure. We investigate operating characteristics of our estimators as well as design considerations via a simulation study and illustrate our methods using two studies: one on recurrent cardiac hospitalizations in patients with heart failure and the other on local recurrence and metastasis in patients with breast cancer.


Assuntos
Estudos de Casos e Controles , Funções Verossimilhança , Recidiva , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Mortalidade
16.
BMC Cancer ; 18(1): 171, 2018 02 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29426294

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In addition to tumor characteristics and lifestyle factors, cancer relapses are often related to the risk of death but have not been jointly studied. We investigate the prognostic factors of recurrent events and death after a diagnosis of breast cancer and predict individual deaths including a history of recurrences. METHODS: The E3N (Etude Epidémiologique auprès de Femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale) study is a prospective cohort study that was initiated in 1990 to investigate factors associated with the most common types of cancer. Overall survival and three types of recurrent events were considered: locoregional recurrence, metastasis, and second primary breast cancer. Recurrent events and death were analyzed using a joint frailty model. RESULTS: The analysis included 4926 women from the E3N cohort diagnosed with a first primary invasive breast cancer between June 1990 and June 2008; during the follow-up, 1334 cases had a recurrence (median time of follow-up is 7.2 years) and 469 women died. Cases with high grade, large tumor size, axillary nodal involvement, and negative estrogen and progesterone receptors had a higher risk of recurrence or death. Furthermore, smoking increased the risk of relapse. For cases with a medium risk profile in terms of tumor characteristics and lifestyle factors, the probability of dying between 5 and 10 years after diagnosis was 6, 20 and 36% for 0, 1 or 2 recurrences within the first 5 years after diagnosis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed the importance of considering baseline lifestyle characteristics and history of relapses to dynamically predict the risk of death in breast cancer cases. Medical experience coupled with an estimate of a patient's survival probability that considers all available information for this patient would enable physicians to make better informed decisions regarding their actions and thus improve clinical output.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/mortalidade , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco
17.
Stat Med ; 37(13): 2148-2161, 2018 06 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29579780

RESUMO

The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors are used as standard guidelines for the clinical evaluation of cancer treatments. The assessment is based on the anatomical tumor burden: change in size of target lesions and evolution of nontarget lesions (NTL). Despite unquestionable advantages of this standard tool, Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors are subject to some limitations such as categorization of continuous tumor size or negligence of its longitudinal trajectory. In particular, it is of interest to capture its nonlinear shape and model it simultaneously with recurrent progressions of NTL and overall survival. We propose a multivariate nonlinear mechanistic joint frailty model for longitudinal data, recurrent events, and a terminal event. In the model, the tumor size trajectory is described using an ordinary differential equation that accounts for the natural growth and treatment-induced decline. We perform a simulation study to validate the method and apply the model to a phase III clinical trial in colorectal cancer. In the results of the analysis, we determine on which component, tumor size, NTL, or death the treatment acts mostly and perform dynamic predictions of death. We compare the model with other models that consider parametric functions or splines for the tumor size trajectory in terms of goodness of fit and predictive accuracy.


Assuntos
Fragilidade/mortalidade , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise Multivariada , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Dinâmica não Linear , Biomarcadores , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Fragilidade/etiologia , Humanos , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/patologia , Neoplasias/terapia , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco
18.
Int J Cancer ; 141(9): 1771-1782, 2017 11 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28685816

RESUMO

Studies in farmers suggest a possible role of pesticides in the occurrence of Central Nervous System (CNS) tumors but scientific evidence is still insufficient. Using data from the French prospective agricultural cohort AGRICAN (Agriculture & Cancer), we investigated the associations between exposure of farmers and pesticide users to various kinds of crops and animal farming and the incidence of CNS tumors, overall and by subtypes. Over the 2005-2007, 181,842 participants completed the enrollment questionnaire that collected a complete job calendar with lifetime history of farming types. Associations were estimated using proportional hazards models with age as underlying timescale. During a 5.2 years average follow-up, 273 incident cases of CNS tumors occurred, including 126 gliomas and 87 meningiomas. Analyses showed several increased risks of CNS tumors in farmers, especially in pesticide users (hazard ratio = 1.96; 95% confidence interval: 1.11-3.47). Associations varied with tumor subtypes and kinds of crop and animal farming. The main increases in risk were observed for meningiomas in pig farmers and in farmers growing sunflowers, beets and potatoes and for gliomas in farmers growing grasslands. In most cases, more pronounced risk excesses were observed among pesticide applicators. Even if we cannot completely rule out the contribution of other factors, pesticide exposures could be of primary concern to explain these findings.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Trabalhadores Agrícolas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Sistema Nervoso Central/epidemiologia , Praguicidas/toxicidade , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças dos Trabalhadores Agrícolas/induzido quimicamente , Doenças dos Trabalhadores Agrícolas/patologia , Agricultura , Neoplasias do Sistema Nervoso Central/induzido quimicamente , Neoplasias do Sistema Nervoso Central/patologia , Fazendeiros , Feminino , França , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Inquéritos e Questionários
19.
Biometrics ; 73(4): 1401-1412, 2017 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28395116

RESUMO

Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Modelos Estatísticos , Fatores de Risco , Algoritmos , Doença de Alzheimer , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Washington
20.
J Biopharm Stat ; 27(6): 1043-1053, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28319455

RESUMO

Clinical trial duration may be a concern in clinical research, especially in cancer trials where the endpoint is overall survival. A surrogate endpoint can be used as an auxiliary variable to analyze the treatment effect earlier. At an early time point, the high number of censored observations can be compensated by the imputation of the unobserved deaths times. We propose to use predictions of the risk of death from a joint model for a recurrent event and a terminal event, which account for disease relapse information. Two imputation methods were compared: sampling from the estimated parametric distribution of the survival time and sampling using its nonparametric estimation. The treatment effect and its standard error were estimated via multiple imputations. The performances of the two methods were compared in terms of bias in the estimates, standard errors, and coverage probability. Both methods were then retrospectively applied to two randomized clinical trials studying the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Quimiorradioterapia Adjuvante/estatística & dados numéricos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Sobreviventes/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Quimiorradioterapia Adjuvante/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Análise de Sobrevida , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Resultado do Tratamento
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