Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. We present estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990-2017, with forecasts up to 2030. METHODS: Adult alcohol per-capita consumption (the consumption in L of pure alcohol per adult [≥15 years]) in a given year was based on country-validated data up to 2016. Forecasts up to 2030 were obtained from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. Using survey data from 149 countries, prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of at least one occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data from 118 countries. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5·9 L (95% CI 5·8-6·1) to 6·5 L (6·0-6·9), and is forecasted to reach 7·6 L (6·5-10·2) by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% (42-49) in 1990 to 43% (40-46) in 2017, albeit this was not a significant reduction, while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% (41-48) in 1990 to 47% (44-50) in 2017. We forecast both trends to continue, with abstinence decreasing to 40% (37-44) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% decrease) and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% (46-53) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% increase). In 2017, 20% (17-24) of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18·5% [15·3-21·6%], and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% (19-27) in 2030. INTERPRETATION: Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure. FUNDING: Centre for Addiction and Mental Health and the WHO Collaborating Center for Addiction and Mental Health at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed. METHODS: A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM. RESULTS: There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4-9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3-3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

National, regional, and global burdens of disease from 2000 to 2016 attributable to alcohol use: a comparative risk assessment study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use has increased globally, with varying trends in different parts of the world. This study investigates gender, age, and geographical differences in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease from 2000 to 2016. METHODS: This comparative risk assessment study estimated the alcohol-attributable burden of disease. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated by combining alcohol exposure data obtained from production and taxation statistics and from national surveys with corresponding relative risks obtained from meta-analyses and cohort studies. Mortality and morbidity data were obtained from the WHO Global Health Estimates, population data were obtained from the UN Population Division, and human development index (HDI) data were obtained from the UN Development Programme. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using a Monte Carlo-like approach. FINDINGS: Globally, we estimated that there were 3·0 million (95% UI 2·6-3·6) alcohol-attributable deaths and 131·4 million (119·4-154·4) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2016, corresponding to 5·3% (4·6-6·3) of all deaths and 5·0% (4·6-5·9) of all DALYs. Alcohol use was a major risk factor for communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional diseases (PAF of 3·3% [1·9-5·6]), non-communicable diseases (4·3% [3·6-5·1]), and injury (17·7% [14·3-23·0]) deaths. The alcohol-attributable burden of disease was higher among men than among women, and the alcohol-attributable age-standardised burden of disease was highest in the eastern Europe and western, southern, and central sub-Saharan Africa regions, and in countries with low HDIs. 52·4% of all alcohol-attributable deaths occurred in people younger than 60 years. INTERPRETATION: As a leading risk factor for the burden of disease, alcohol use disproportionately affects people in low HDI countries and young people. Given the variations in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease, cost-effective local and national policy measures that can reduce alcohol use and the resulting burden of disease are needed, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: None.

The global proportion and volume of unrecorded alcohol in 2015.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is associated with elevated risks of disease and injury, and the best indicator of the level of consumption in a country is total alcohol per capita (APC) consumption among adults which comprises recorded consumption and unrecorded consumption. While recorded consumption can be assessed with small measurement bias via taxation or other governmental records, unrecorded consumption is more difficult to assess. The objectives of this study were to estimate the country-specific proportion and volume of unrecorded APC in 2015, to identify main sources of unrecorded alcohol and to assess to what extent experts perceive unrecorded alcohol as a public health, social, and financial problem. METHODS: Estimates of unrecorded APC were based on a multilevel fractional response regression model using data from World Health Organization's (WHO) STEPwise approach to surveillance surveys (16 countries, 66 188 participants), estimates from the routine WHO reporting on key indicators of alcohol use (189 countries), and a nominal group expert assessment (42 countries, 129 experts). Expert assessments also included data on the sources of unrecorded alcohol and the perception of unrecorded alcohol as a public health, social, and financial problem. RESULTS: The volume of global unrecorded APC was 1.6 L pure alcohol, representing 25% of the total APC. The volume of unrecorded APC was highest in Europe (2.1 L per capita), while the proportion of unrecorded APC was highest in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (57% of the total alcohol). In countries with available data, homemade alcohol was identified as a major source of unrecorded alcohol. The majority of experts considered unrecorded alcohol to be a public health (62%), social (60%), and financial problem (54%). CONCLUSIONS: High volumes of unrecorded alcohol are consumed globally; however, the volumes consumed and the sources of the unrecorded alcohol exhibit large geographical variation.

National, regional and global mortality due to alcoholic cardiomyopathy in 2015.

OBJECTIVES: (1) A comprehensive mortality assessment of alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) and (2) examination of under-reporting using vital statistics data. METHODS: A modelling study estimated sex-specific mortality rates for each country, which were subsequently aggregated by region and globally. Input data on ACM mortality were obtained from death registries for n=91 countries. For n=99 countries, mortality estimates were predicted using aggregate alcohol data from WHO publications. Descriptive additional analyses illustrated the scope of under-reporting. RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 25 997 (95% CI 17 385 to 49 096) global deaths from ACM. This translates into 6.3% (95% CI 4.2% to 11.9%) of all global deaths from cardiomyopathy being caused by alcohol. There were large regional variations with regard to mortality burden. While the majority of ACM deaths were found in Russia (19 749 deaths, 76.0% of all ACM deaths), for about one-third of countries (n=57) less than one ACM death was found. Under-reporting was identified for nearly every second country with civil registration data. Overall, two out of three global ACM deaths might be misclassified. CONCLUSIONS: The variation of ACM mortality burden is greater than for other alcohol-attributable diseases, and partly may be the result of stigma and lack of detection. Misclassification of ACM fatalities is a systematic phenomenon, which may be caused by low resources, lacking standards and stigma associated with alcohol-use disorders. Clinical management may be improved by including routine alcohol assessments. This could contribute to decrease misclassifications and to provide the best available treatment for affected patients.

Unrecorded alcohol use: a global modelling study based on nominal group assessments and survey data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol use is among the most important risk factors for burden of disease globally. An estimated quarter of the total alcohol consumed globally is unrecorded. However, due partly to the challenges associated with its assessment, evidence concerning the magnitude of unrecorded alcohol use is sparse. This study estimated country-specific proportions of unrecorded alcohol used in 2015. DESIGN: A statistical model was developed for data prediction using data on the country-specific proportion of unrecorded alcohol use from nominal group expert assessments and secondary, nationally representative survey data and country-level covariates. SETTING: Estimates were calculated for the country level, for four income groups and globally. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 129 participants from 49 countries were included in the nominal group expert assessments. The survey data comprised 66 538 participants from 16 countries. MEASUREMENTS: Experts completed a standardized questionnaire assessing the country-specific proportion of unrecorded alcohol. In the national surveys, the number of standard drinks of total and unrecorded alcohol use was assessed for the past 7 days. FINDINGS: Based on predictions for 167 countries, a population-weighted average of 27.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 10.4-44.9%] of the total alcohol consumed in 2015 was unrecorded. The proportion of unrecorded alcohol was lower in high (9.4%, 95% CI = 2.4-16.4%) and upper middle-income countries (18.3%, 95% CI = 9.0-27.6%) and higher in low (43.1%, 95% CI = 26.5-59.7%) and lower middle-income countries (54.4%, 95% CI = 38.1-70.8%). This corresponded to 0.9 (high-income), 1.2 (upper middle-income), 3.2 (lower middle-income) and 1.8 (low-income) litres of unrecorded alcohol per capita. CONCLUSIONS: A new method for modelling the country-level proportion of unrecorded alcohol use globally showed strong variation among geographical regions and income groups. Lower-income countries were associated with a higher proportion of unrecorded alcohol than higher-income countries.

Prevalence and factors related to Canadian workplace health programs.

BACKGROUND: This study documented the prevalence and factors related to workplace health programs in Canada, including Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), drug testing programs, and Health Promotion Programs (HPPs). METHODS: A representative sample of 565 Human Resources Managers at worksites with 100 or more employees across Canada completed a questionnaire on the worksite characteristics and the types of programs at their workplace (response rate = 79.8%). RESULTS: EAPs were established in 67.8% of sampled worksites (95% CI: 63.9%-71.7%). The proportion of worksites with EAPs varied significantly across work sectors (p<0.001) but not across regions of Canada. Worksites with EAPs had significantly (p<0.001) fewer visible minorities and had more unionized employees (p<0.001) than worksites without EAPs. For drug-testing programs, about 10.3% of Canadian worksites have them (95% CI: 7.8%-12.8%). Significant differences were noted across regions (p<0.001) with Alberta most likely to have such programs (25.4%) and Ontario least likely (4.6%). Also, safety-sensitive worksites and those with United States ownership were significantly (p<0.05) more likely to have drug testing. The most common type of HPP was fitness programs (29.4%) and the least common was day/elder care programs (5.5%). Fitness programs were most common in the Eastern provinces and least common in Quebec. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, Canadian worksites favour a health promotion and treatment approach over a deterrence approach for addressing health and substance use issues in the workplace. Workplace health programs were related to several factors that have created an uneven system of health promotion, treatment and deterrence in Canadian worksites.

Injury risk associated with cannabis and cocaine use.

The purpose of this paper is to review the results and limitations of studies of injury risks associated with cannabis and cocaine use. Three types of fatal and non-fatal injuries are considered: injuries due to collisions, intentional injuries and injuries in general. Four types of studies were reviewed: (I) laboratory studies, (II) descriptive and analytic epidemiological studies on the prevalence of cannabis or cocaine use through drug testing of those injured, (III) studies of non-clinical samples, and (IV) studies of clinical samples of drug users. The research that utilized drug tests showed similar proportions testing positive for cannabis in fatal and non-fatal injury groups, and for collisions, violence and injuries in general. By contrast, large differences in the average proportions testing positive for cocaine were found among these same injury groups. For example, 28.7% of people with intentional injuries (primarily homicides) tested positive for cocaine, while 4.5% of injured drivers tested positive. Studies of non-clinical samples have shown that both cannabis and cocaine use are related to intentional injuries and injuries in general. Results indicate higher risk for all types of injuries among cannabis and cocaine clients in treatment. Strengths and limitations of the different types of studies are discussed. More rigorous studies are needed which should focus on ruling out alternative explanations for relationships between drug use and injuries.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Aboriginal community alcohol harm reduction policy (ACAHRP) project: a vision for the future.

Four First Nation communities in Ontario, Canada, formulated alcohol management policies between 1992 and 1994. An alcohol management policy is a local control option to manage alcohol use in recreation and leisure areas. Survey results indicate that decreases in alcohol use-related problems related to intoxication, nuisance behaviors, criminal activity, liquor license violations, and personal harm were perceived to have occurred. Furthermore, having policy regulations in place did not have an adverse effect on facility rentals. Band administrators and facility staff in each community felt the policy had had a positive effect on events at which alcohol was sold or served.