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1.
Ann Intern Med ; 177(4): 418-427, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38560914

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates have recently been reported for racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. Tracking such disparities is important for assessing progress toward national health equity goals and implementing change. OBJECTIVE: To quantify trends in racial/ethnic disparities in TB incidence among U.S.-born persons. DESIGN: Time-series analysis of national TB registry data for 2011 to 2021. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: U.S.-born persons stratified by race/ethnicity. MEASUREMENTS: TB incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and incidence rate ratios compared with non-Hispanic White persons; excess TB cases (calculated from incidence rate differences); and the index of disparity. Analyses were stratified by sex and by attribution of TB disease to recent transmission and were adjusted for age, year, and state of residence. RESULTS: In analyses of TB incidence rates for each racial/ethnic population compared with non-Hispanic White persons, incidence rate ratios were as high as 14.2 (95% CI, 13.0 to 15.5) among American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) females. Relative disparities were greater for females, younger persons, and TB attributed to recent transmission. Absolute disparities were greater for males. Excess TB cases in 2011 to 2021 represented 69% (CI, 66% to 71%) and 62% (CI, 60% to 64%) of total cases for females and males, respectively. No evidence was found to indicate that incidence rate ratios decreased over time, and most relative disparity measures showed small, statistically nonsignificant increases. LIMITATION: Analyses assumed complete TB case diagnosis and self-report of race/ethnicity and were not adjusted for medical comorbidities or social determinants of health. CONCLUSION: There are persistent disparities in TB incidence by race/ethnicity. Relative disparities were greater for AI/AN persons, females, and younger persons, and absolute disparities were greater for males. Eliminating these disparities could reduce overall TB incidence by more than 60% among the U.S.-born population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Tuberculose , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Dados de Saúde Coletados Rotineiramente , Grupos Minoritários , Vigilância da População , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle
2.
PLoS Med ; 21(7): e1004424, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38976754

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Since common diagnostic tests for gonorrhea do not provide information about susceptibility to antibiotics, treatment of gonorrhea remains empiric. Antibiotics used for empiric therapy are usually changed once resistance prevalence exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 5%). A low switch threshold is intended to increase the probability that an infection is successfully treated with the first-line antibiotic, but it could also increase the pace at which recommendations are switched to newer antibiotics. Little is known about the impact of changing the switch threshold on the incidence of gonorrhea, the rate of treatment failure, and the overall cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with gonorrhea. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a transmission model of gonococcal infection with multiple resistant strains to project gonorrhea-associated costs and loss in QALYs under different switch thresholds among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. We accounted for the costs and disutilities associated with symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, and sequelae, and combined costs and QALYs in a measure of net health benefit (NHB). Our results suggest that under a scenario where 3 antibiotics are available over the next 50 years (2 suitable for the first-line therapy of gonorrhea and 1 suitable only for the retreatment of resistant infections), changing the switch threshold between 1% and 10% does not meaningfully impact the annual number of gonorrhea cases, total costs, or total QALY losses associated with gonorrhea. However, if a new antibiotic is to become available in the future, choosing a lower switch threshold could improve the population NHB. If in addition, drug-susceptibility testing (DST) is available to inform retreatment regimens after unsuccessful first-line therapy, setting the switch threshold at 1% to 2% is expected to maximize the population NHB. A limitation of our study is that our analysis only focuses on the MSM population and does not consider the influence of interventions such as vaccine and common use of rapid drugs susceptibility tests to inform first-line therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Changing the switch threshold for first-line antibiotics may not substantially change the health and financial outcomes associated with gonorrhea. However, the switch threshold could be reduced when newer antibiotics are expected to become available soon or when in addition to future novel antibiotics, DST is also available to inform retreatment regimens.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Gonorreia , Homossexualidade Masculina , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Gonorreia/tratamento farmacológico , Gonorreia/epidemiologia , Gonorreia/economia , Gonorreia/diagnóstico , Masculino , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Antibacterianos/economia , Prevalência , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/efeitos dos fármacos , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Análise de Custo-Efetividade
3.
J Viral Hepat ; 2024 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39037155

RESUMO

About 80% of persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the United States are non-US-born. Despite improvements in infant hepatitis B vaccination globally since 2000, work remains to attain the World Health Organization's (WHO) global 2030 goal of 90% vaccination. We explore the impacts on the United States of global progress in hepatitis B vaccination since 2000 and of achieving WHO hepatitis B vaccination goals. We simulated immigrants with HBV infection arriving to the United States from 2000 to 2070 using models of the 10 countries from which the largest numbers of individuals with HBV infection were born. We estimated costs in the United States among these cohorts using a disease simulation model. We simulated three scenarios: a scenario with no progress in infant vaccination for hepatitis B since 2000 (baseline), current (2020) progress and achieving WHO 2030 goals for hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate current hepatitis B vaccination progress since the 2000 baseline in these 10 countries will lead to 468,686 fewer HBV infections, avoid 35,582 hepatitis B-related deaths and save $4.2 billion in the United States through 2070. Achieving the WHO 2030 90% hepatitis B infant vaccination targets could lead to an additional 16,762 fewer HBV infections, 989 fewer hepatitis B-related deaths and save $143 million through 2070. Global hepatitis B vaccination since 2000 reduced prevalence of HBV infection in the United States. Achieving the WHO 2030 infant vaccination goals globally could lead to over one hundred million dollars in additional savings.

4.
Epidemiology ; 35(2): 164-173, 2024 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38290139

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the United States, over 80% of tuberculosis (TB) disease cases are estimated to result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired more than 2 years previously ("reactivation TB"). We estimated reactivation TB rates for the US population with LTBI, overall, by age, sex, race-ethnicity, and US-born status, and for selected comorbidities (diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and HIV). METHODS: We collated nationally representative data for 2011-2012. Reactivation TB incidence was based on TB cases reported to the National TB Surveillance System that were attributed to LTBI reactivation. Person-years at risk of reactivation TB were calculated using interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) positivity from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, published values for interferon-gamma release assay sensitivity and specificity, and population estimates from the American Community Survey. RESULTS: For persons aged ≥6 years with LTBI, the overall reactivation rate was estimated as 0.072 (95% uncertainty interval: 0.047, 0.12) per 100 person-years. Estimated reactivation rates declined with age. Compared to the overall population, estimated reactivation rates were higher for persons with diabetes (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.6 [1.5, 1.7]), end-stage renal disease (aRR = 9.8 [5.4, 19]), and HIV (aRR = 12 [10, 13]). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, individuals with LTBI faced small, non-negligible risks of reactivation TB. Risks were elevated for individuals with medical comorbidities that weaken immune function.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus , Infecções por HIV , Falência Renal Crônica , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Falência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia
5.
Med Decis Making ; 44(2): 175-188, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38159263

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The potential for selection bias in nonrepresentative, large-scale, low-cost survey data can limit their utility for population health measurement and public health decision making. We developed an approach to bias adjust county-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage predictions from the large-scale US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey. DESIGN: We developed a multistep regression framework to adjust for selection bias in predicted county-level vaccination coverage plateaus. Our approach included poststratification to the American Community Survey, adjusting for differences in observed covariates, and secondary normalization to an unbiased reference indicator. As a case study, we prospectively applied this framework to predict county-level long-run vaccination coverage among children ages 5 to 11 y. We evaluated our approach against an interim observed measure of 3-mo coverage for children ages 5 to 11 y and used long-term coverage estimates to monitor equity in the pace of vaccination scale up. RESULTS: Our predictions suggested a low ceiling on long-term national vaccination coverage (46%), detected substantial geographic heterogeneity (ranging from 11% to 91% across counties in the United States), and highlighted widespread disparities in the pace of scale up in the 3 mo following Emergency Use Authorization of COVID-19 vaccination for 5- to 11-y-olds. LIMITATIONS: We relied on historical relationships between vaccination hesitancy and observed coverage, which may not capture rapid changes in the COVID-19 policy and epidemiologic landscape. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates an approach to leverage differing strengths of multiple sources of information to produce estimates on the time scale and geographic scale necessary for proactive decision making. IMPLICATIONS: Designing integrated health measurement systems that combine sources with different advantages across the spectrum of timeliness, spatial resolution, and representativeness can maximize the benefits of data collection relative to costs. HIGHLIGHTS: The COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed massive survey data collection efforts that prioritized timeliness and sample size over population representativeness.The potential for selection bias in these large-scale, low-cost, nonrepresentative data has led to questions about their utility for population health measurement.We developed a multistep regression framework to bias adjust county-level vaccination coverage predictions from the largest public health survey conducted in the United States to date: the US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey.Our study demonstrates the value of leveraging differing strengths of multiple data sources to generate estimates on the time scale and geographic scale necessary for proactive public health decision making.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Cobertura Vacinal , Criança , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/uso terapêutico , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Inquéritos e Questionários , Vacinação
6.
PLoS One ; 19(6): e0304175, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38935807

RESUMO

PURPOSE: The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) among high school students includes standard questions about sexual identity and sex of sexual contacts, but these questions are not consistently included in every state that conducts the survey. This study aimed to develop and apply a method to predict state-level proportions of high school students identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) or reporting any same-sex sexual contacts in those states that did not include these questions in their 2017 YRBS. METHODS: We used state-level high school YRBS data from 2013, 2015, and 2017. We defined two primary outcomes relating to self-reported LGB identity and reported same-sex sexual contacts. We developed machine learning models to predict the two outcomes based on other YRBS variables, and comparing different modeling approaches. We used a leave-one-out cross-validation approach and report results from best-performing models. RESULTS: Modern ensemble models outperformed traditional linear models at predicting state-level proportions for the two outcomes, and we identified prediction methods that performed well across different years and prediction tasks. Predicted proportions of respondents reporting LGB identity in states that did not include direct measurement ranged between 9.4% and 12.9%. Predicted proportions of respondents reporting any same-sex contacts, where not directly observed, ranged between 7.0% and 10.4%. CONCLUSION: Comparable population estimates of sexual minority adolescents can raise awareness among state policy makers and the public about what proportion of youth may be exposed to disparate health risks and outcomes associated with sexual minority status. This information can help decision makers in public health and education agencies design, implement and evaluate community and school interventions to improve the health of LGB youth.


Assuntos
Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Humanos , Adolescente , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Estados Unidos , Comportamento Sexual/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Aprendizado de Máquina , Assunção de Riscos , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudantes/psicologia
7.
Int J Drug Policy ; 130: 104539, 2024 Jul 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39033645

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Injection-equipment-sharing networks play an important role in hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID). Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for HCV infection and interventions to prevent HCV transmission are critical components of an overall hepatitis C elimination strategy, but how they contribute to the elimination outcomes in different PWID network settings are unclear. METHODS: We developed an agent-based network model of HCV transmission through the sharing of injection equipment among PWID and parameterized and calibrated the model with rural PWID data in the United States. We modeled curative and preventive interventions at annual coverage levels of 12.5 %, 25 %, or 37.5 % (cumulative percentage of eligible individuals engaged), and two allocation approaches: random vs targeting PWID with more injection partners (hereafter 'degree-based'). We compared the impact of these intervention strategies on prevalence and incidence of HCV infections. We conducted sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing the effects of curative and preventive interventions and PWID network characteristics. RESULTS: Combining curative and preventive interventions at 37.5 % annual coverage with degree-based allocation decreased prevalence and incidence of HCV infection by 67 % and 70 % over two years, respectively. Curative interventions decreased prevalence by six to 12 times more than preventive interventions, while curative and preventive interventions had comparable effectiveness on reducing incidence. Intervention impact increased with coverage almost linearly across all intervention strategies, and degree-based allocation was always more effective than random allocation, especially for preventive interventions. Results were sensitive to parameter values defining intervention effects and network mean degree. CONCLUSION: DAA treatments are effective in reducing both prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in PWID, but preventive interventions play a significant role in reducing incidence when intervention coverage is low. Increasing coverage, including efforts in reaching individuals with the most injection partners, preventing reinfection, and improving compliance and retention in preventive services can substantially improve the outcomes. PWID network characteristics should be considered when designing hepatitis C elimination programs.

8.
MDM Policy Pract ; 9(1): 23814683231226129, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38293656

RESUMO

Objective. To compare resource utilization and costs associated with 3 alternative screening approaches to identify early-onset sepsis (EOS) in infants born at ≥35 wk of gestational age, as recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) in 2018. Study Design. Decision tree-based cost analysis of the 3 AAP-recommended approaches: 1) categorical risk assessment (categorization by chorioamnionitis exposure status), 2) neonatal sepsis calculator (a multivariate prediction model based on perinatal risk factors), and 3) enhanced clinical observation (assessment based on serial clinical examinations). We evaluated resource utilization and direct costs (2022 US dollars) to the health system. Results. Categorical risk assessment led to the greatest neonatal intensive care unit usage (210 d per 1,000 live births) and antibiotic exposure (6.8%) compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator (112 d per 1,000 live births and 3.6%) and enhanced clinical observation (99 d per 1,000 live births and 3.1%). While the per-live birth hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar-categorical risk assessment cost $1,360, the neonatal sepsis calculator cost $1,317, and enhanced clinical observation cost $1,310-the cost of infants receiving intervention under categorical risk assessment was approximately twice that of the other 2 strategies. Results were robust to variations in data parameters. Conclusion. The neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches may be preferred to categorical risk assessment as they reduce the number of infants receiving intervention and thus antibiotic exposure and associated costs. All 3 approaches have similar costs over all live births, and prior literature has indicated similar health outcomes. Inclusion of downstream effects of antibiotic exposure in the neonatal period should be evaluated within a cost-effectiveness analysis. Highlights: Of the 3 approaches recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics in 2018 to identify early-onset sepsis in infants born at ≥35 weeks, the categorical risk assessment approach leads to about twice as many infants receiving evaluation to rule out early-onset sepsis compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches.While the hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar over the entire population of live births, the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches reduce antibiotic exposure, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and hospital costs associated with interventions as part of the screening approach compared with the categorical risk assessment approach.

9.
Cell Rep ; 43(7): 114451, 2024 Jul 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38970788

RESUMO

Omicron surged as a variant of concern in late 2021. Several distinct Omicron variants appeared and overtook each other. We combined variant frequencies and infection estimates from a nowcasting model for each US state to estimate variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers (Rt). BA.1 rapidly emerged, and we estimate that it infected 47.7% of the US population before it was replaced by BA.2. We estimate that BA.5 infected 35.7% of the US population, persisting in circulation for nearly 6 months. Other variants-BA.2, BA.4, and XBB-together infected 30.7% of the US population. We found a positive correlation between the state-level BA.1 attack rate and social vulnerability and a negative correlation between the BA.1 and BA.2 attack rates. Our findings illustrate the complex interplay between viral evolution, population susceptibility, and social factors during the Omicron emergence in the US.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19/virologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Genoma Viral , Genômica/métodos
10.
Lancet Public Health ; 9(1): e47-e56, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38176842

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Persistent racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis incidence exist in the USA, however, less is known about disparities along the tuberculosis continuum of care. This study aimed to describe how race and ethnicity are associated with tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes. METHODS: In this analysis of national surveillance data, we extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on US-born patients with tuberculosis during 2003-19. To estimate the association between race and ethnicity and tuberculosis diagnosis (diagnosis after death, cavitation, and sputum smear positivity) and treatment outcomes (treatment for more than 12 months, treatment discontinuation, and death during treatment), we fitted log-binomial regression models adjusting for calendar year, sex, age category, and regional division. Race and ethnicity were defined based on US Census Bureau classification as White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, and people of other ethnicities. We quantified racial and ethnic disparities as adjusted relative risks (aRRs) using non-Hispanic White people as the reference group. We also calculated the Index of Disparity as a summary measure that quantifies the dispersion in a given outcome across all racial and ethnic groups, relative to the population mean. We estimated time trends in each outcome to evaluate whether disparities were closing or widening. FINDINGS: From 2003 to 2019, there were 72 809 US-born individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis disease of whom 72 369 (35·7% women and 64·3% men) could be included in analyses. We observed an overall higher risk of any adverse outcome (defined as diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment) for non-Hispanic Black people (aRR 1·27, 95% CI 1·22-1·32), Hispanic people (1·20, 1·14-1·27), and American Indian or Alaska Native people (1·24, 1·12-1·37), relative to non-Hispanic White people. The Index of Disparity for this summary outcome remained unchanged over the study period. INTERPRETATION: This study, based on national surveillance data, indicates racial and ethnic disparaties among US-born tuberculosis patients along the tuberculosis continuum of care. Initiatives are needed to reduce diagnostic delays and improve treatment outcomes for US-born racially marginalised people in the USA. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Grupos Raciais , Tuberculose , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Resultado do Tratamento , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Estados Unidos
11.
Lancet Public Health ; 9(8): e564-e572, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39095133

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities. METHODS: We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19. Individuals with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis or missing data on race and ethnicity were excluded. We examined potential disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born and non-US-born individuals and conducted a mediation analysis for groups with a higher risk of treatment incompletion (a summary outcome comprising diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment). We used sequential multiple mediation to evaluate eight potential mediators: three comorbid conditions (HIV, end-stage renal disease, and diabetes), homelessness, and four census tract-level measures (poverty, unemployment, insurance coverage, and racialised economic segregation [measured by Index of Concentration at the ExtremesRace-Income]). We estimated the marginal contribution of each mediator using Shapley values. FINDINGS: During 2011-19, 27 788 US-born individuals and 57 225 non-US-born individuals were diagnosed with active tuberculosis, of whom 27 605 and 56 253 individuals, respectively, met eligibility criteria for our analyses. We did not observe evidence of disparities in tuberculosis outcomes for non-US-born individuals by race and ethnicity. Therefore, subsequent analyses were restricted to US-born individuals. Relative to White individuals, Black and Hispanic individuals had a higher risk of not completing tuberculosis treatment (adjusted relative risk 1·27, 95% CI 1·19-1·35; 1·22, 1·11-1·33, respectively). In multiple mediator analysis, the eight measured mediators explained 67% of the disparity for Black individuals and 65% for Hispanic individuals. The biggest contributors to these disparities for Black individuals and Hispanic individuals were concomitant end-stage renal disease, concomitant HIV, census tract-level racialised economic segregation, and census tract-level poverty. INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the need for initiatives to reduce disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born individuals, particularly in highly racially and economically polarised neighbourhoods. Mitigating the structural and environmental factors that lead to disparities in the prevalence of comorbidities and their case management should be a priority. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.


Assuntos
Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Tuberculose , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/etnologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Masculino , Feminino , Fatores de Risco , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Resultado do Tratamento , Análise de Mediação , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/etnologia , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Vigilância da População
12.
Lancet Public Health ; 9(8): e573-e582, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39095134

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023. METHODS: Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes. FINDINGS: Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100. INTERPRETATION: Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculose , Humanos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Incidência , Erradicação de Doenças
13.
Salud pública Méx ; 49(supl.1): s37-s52, 2007. graf
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS | ID: lil-452113

RESUMO

La definición explícita de prioridades en intervenciones de salud representa una oportunidad para México de equilibrar la presión y la complejidad de una transición epidemiológica avanzada, con políticas basadas en evidencias generadas por la inquietud de cómo optimizar el uso de los recursos escasos para mejorar la salud de la población. La experiencia mexicana en la definición de prioridades describe cómo los enfoques analíticos estandarizados en la toma de decisiones, principalmente los de análisis de la carga de la enfermedad y de costo-efectividad, se combinan con otros criterios -tales como dar respuesta a las expectativas legítimas no médicas de los pacientes y asegurar un financiamiento justo para los hogares-, para diseñar e implementar un grupo de tres paquetes diferenciados de intervenciones de salud. Éste es un proceso clave dentro de un conjunto más amplio de elementos de reforma dirigidos a extender el aseguramiento en salud, especialmente a los pobres. Las implicaciones más relevantes en el ámbito de políticas públicas incluyen lecciones sobre el uso de las herramientas analíticas disponibles y probadas para definir prioridades nacionales de salud; la utilidad de resultados que definan prioridades para guiar el desarrollo de capacidades a largo plazo; la importancia de favorecer un enfoque para institucionalizar el análisis ex-ante de costo-efectividad; y la necesidad del fortalecimiento de la capacidad técnica local como un elemento esencial para equilibrar los argumentos sobre maximización de la salud con criterios no relacionados con la salud en el marco de un ejercicio sistemático y transparente.


Explicit priority setting presents Mexico with the opportunity to match the pressure and complexity of an advancing epidemiological transition with evidence-based policies driven by a fundamental concern for how to make the best use of scarce resources to improve population health. The Mexican priority-setting experience describes how standardised analytical approaches to decision making, mainly burden of disease and cost-effectiveness analyses, combine with other criteria -eg, being responsive to the legitimate non-health expectations of patients and ensuring fair financing across households- to design and implement a set of three differentiated health intervention packages. This process is a key element of a wider set of reform components aimed at extending health insurance, especially to the poor. The most relevant policy implications include lessons on the use of available and proven analytical tools to set national health priorities, the usefulness of priority-setting results to guide long-term capacity development, the importance of favouring an institutionalised approach to cost-effectiveness analysis, and the need for local technical capacity strengthening as an essential step to balance health-maximising arguments and other non-health criteria in a transparent and systematic process.


Assuntos
Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prioridades em Saúde , Saúde Pública , Fatores Etários , Causas de Morte , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Análise Custo-Benefício , Previsões , Reforma dos Serviços de Saúde/economia , México , Morbidade/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Pobreza , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais
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