Impact of a continuous quality improvement program on contrast-induced nephropathy in outpatients with chronic kidney disease: an interrupted time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) caused by exposure to radioactive contrast media can cause acute kidney injury in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We developed a multifaceted approach in a CIN-quality improvement (QI) program based on a shorter saline hydration protocol for the prevention of CIN in outpatients and assessed the effect of our CIN-QI program on decreasing both the incidence rate of CIN and overall use of contrast agents in patients undergoing contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT). METHODS: We conducted a multi-center prospective interrupted time-series study from 2006 to 2018 investigating the efficacy of a CIN-QI program in preventing CIN among outpatients with CKD. An automatic medical record system alert was implemented to instruct physicians to consult a nephrologist and administer prophylactic hydration and follow-up when ordering contrast-enhanced imaging in patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <45 mL/min/1.73 m2. The primary outcomes were the rates of prophylactic hydration and follow-up kidney function assessment, and the incidence of CIN for eligible patients. The usage rate of contrast-enhanced CT was also examined. RESULTS: A total of 95 594 patients who underwent contrast-enhanced CT were included in the study. The annual prophylactic hydration rate before the CIN-QI program ranged from 2.0% to 23.2% but increased to 59.2%-75.2% during the CIN-QI program (P < .001). The annual rate of follow-up kidney function testing also improved from 18.6%-25.8% to 34.1%-42.5% after implementation of the CIN-QI program (P < .001). The rate of CIN significantly declined in level by 10.0% at the start of the CIN-QI program (P = .002) and in trend by 2.9%/year (P < .001). The number of contrast-enhanced CT orders showed a positive level change in patients with advanced CKD, who were the CIN-QI program target group of patients with eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2, at the start of the implementation of the CIN-QI program. After implementing the CIN-QI program, the number of contrast-enhanced CT orders showed a negative trend change across all patients, which decreased from -1.4%/year to -10.0%/year for patients with advanced CKD. CONCLUSION: The multifaceted approach in the CIN-QI program may be associated with the decreased incidence of CIN and increased rates of prophylactic hydration and follow-up kidney function testing.

The Effect of Shiatsu Therapy on Sleep Quality in Patients With Low Back Pain: A Secondary Analysis.

The aim of this study is to investigate the efficacy of shiatsu therapy for chronic low back pain and sleep disturbance. We conducted a secondary analysis of the randomized trial at a large academic hospital in Tokyo. Patients with chronic low back pain were included. Patients were randomly assigned to either shiatsu therapy in addition to standard care or standard care only by computer randomization. Our primary outcome was improvement of the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) score, and the secondary outcomes were improvement in each component of the PSQI at weeks 4 and 8. We included a total of 59 patients. The mean age was 67.8 (SD: 13.5) years, and 21 patients (35.6%) were male. The global PSQI scores improved in the intervention group at week 4 (adjusted ß coefficient: 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 0.10-2.21) and week 8 (adjusted ß coefficient: 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.74-2.90). In terms of each component of the PSQI, sleep efficiency (component 4) and sleep disturbance (component 5) were improved, but use of sleep medication (component 5) worsened in the intervention group compared with the control group in several models. Shiatsu therapy in addition to standard therapy for chronic low back pain may improve sleep quality after intervention.

Both increased and decreased sleep duration over time are associated with subsequent cancer development.

PURPOSE: Changes in sleep duration have been reported to correlate with lifestyle-related diseases in humans. However, equivalent studies regarding the effects of sleep on cancer progression are lacking. This study aimed to determine whether or not increase or decrease in sleep duration over time is associated with subsequent cancer development. METHODS: A large-scale, retrospective cohort study was conducted at a preventive medicine health center at a general community hospital in Tokyo, Japan. All participants who underwent health checkups at the hospital between January 2005 and December 2018 were included. The primary study outcome was development of any type of cancer according to the slope of sleep duration over the study period. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust the outcomes based on potential covariates. RESULTS: Of 15,025 participants, 7,692 (51.2%) were men. The mean age (standard deviation) was 66.0 (7.5) years. During a median follow-up of 2,588 (interquartile range: 1,583-3,695) days, 1,396 (9.3%) participants developed cancer of any type. Compared to hazard ratio in the stable sleep duration group (- 0.1 to + 0.1 h/day in 1 year), both greatly decreased (less than - 0.2 h/day in 1 year; hazard ratio (HR), 2.13; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.72-2.62) and increased (more than + 0.2 h/day in 1 year; HR, 2.55; 95% CI 2.14-3.04) groups showed significantly higher hazard ratio for the development of any type of cancer. CONCLUSION: Both increased and decreased sleep duration over time are associated with subsequent cancer development.

Effect of antiplatelet agent number, types, and pre-endoscopic management on post-polypectomy bleeding: validation of endoscopy guidelines.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether type of antiplatelet (AP) therapy, AP combination therapy, and AP continuing or switching strategy affect the risk of post-polypectomy bleeding (PPB). In this study, we sought to elucidate this risk. METHODS: We analyzed 1050 patients who underwent colonoscopic polypectomy: 525 AP users and 525 controls matched for age, sex, comorbidities, concomitant non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, and polyp characteristics who did not receive antithrombotics. PPB risk was evaluated by AP number, type, and continuing or switching strategies during the peri-endoscopic period. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, bleeding risk increased significantly as the number of AP agents used increased (monotherapy, adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.7; dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), 4.6; triple antiplatelet therapy (TAPT), 11.1) compared with controls. With monotherapy, significantly increased PPB risk was found for aspirin (aOR 4.3), thienopyridine (aOR 6.3), and cilostazol (aOR 5.9), but not for eicosapentaenoic acid or other APs (beraprost, limaprost, sarpogrelate, dilazep, or dipyridamole). With DAPT, significantly increased PPB risk was found for combination aspirin plus cilostazol, but not aspirin plus other APs. Bleeding rates for continuing monotherapy were 4.3% for aspirin and 0% for thienopyridine, cilostazol, and other APs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of this large polypectomy dataset showed that the use of low-dose aspirin, thienopyridine, or cilostazol and a combination of these is associated with increased PPB risk. Although PPB risk was high with DAPT or TAPT, PPB rate in any antiplatelet monotherapy even with a continuing strategy was low at < 5%.

Long-term outcome of targeted therapy for low back pain in elderly degenerative lumbar scoliosis.

PURPOSE: Treatment of low back pain (LBP) associated with elderly degenerative lumbar scoliosis (DLS) remains controversial. We have developed percutaneous intervertebral-vacuum polymethylmethacrylate injection (PIPI) targeting to the intervertebral vacuum as a minimally invasive surgery. The present study compared the long-term clinical outcomes of PIPI to that of nonoperative treatment. METHODS: Patients with de novo DLS, aged ≥ 65 years, who had LBP with visual analog scale (VAS) of ≥ 50 for ≥ 6 months with intervertebral vacuum on computed tomography and bone marrow edema (BME) on magnetic resonance imaging were included. The clinical outcomes were evaluated using VAS and the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline, 1, 6, 12, 24 months, and at the final follow-up. The course of BME was also evaluated. RESULTS: One hundred and one patients underwent PIPI and 61 received nonoperative treatment. The mean follow-up duration after PIPI and nonoperative treatment was 63.7 ± 32.4 and 43.9 ± 20.9 months, respectively. VAS and ODI after PIPI were significantly improved compared to post-nonoperative treatment. BME decreased substantially in the PIPI group and it was significantly correlated with VAS and ODI improvement. Following PIPI, LBP recurred in 28 patients (35%). LBP recurrence was identified at the same level of PIPI in 10 patients, at the adjacent level of PIPI in 11 patients, and at the non-adjacent level of PIPI in seven patients. Eighteen patients underwent additional PIPIs, and both VAS and ODI were significantly improved after additional PIPIs. CONCLUSION: Bone marrow lesions of the endplate are strongly associated with the presence of LBP. PIPI can be considered as an effective, safe and repeatable treatment for LBP in elderly DLS patients.

Incisura angularis belongs to fundic or transitional gland regions in Helicobacter pylori-naïve normal stomach: Sub-analysis of the prospective multi-center study.

OBJECTIVE: Incisura angularis is one of the important parts for evaluating mucosal atrophy and cancer risk. We determined the type of mucosa at incisura angularis in Helicobacter pylori-naïve normal stomach. METHODS: Subjects aged 40 years or older who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy for dyspepsia or a routine health checkup were recruited in 24 facilities between March 2008 and February 2009. Serum antibody to H. pylori was measured. Endoscopic atrophy was evaluated according to Updated Kimura-Takemoto classification. Five biopsy specimens were taken from the incisura angularis and greater and lesser curvatures of the antrum and corpus. These specimens were histologically classified as fundic, pyloric or transitional. H. pylori-naïve normal stomach was defined with the strictest criterion among various combinations of histological, endoscopic and serum findings. We determined histological type of mucosa at incisura angularis in H. pylori-naïve normal stomach. RESULTS: A total of 270 subjects (122 men, mean 64.6 yo) were analyzed. The strictest criterion consists of serum antibody ≤ 3.0 U/mL, endoscopic atrophy C-1 and histological grade 0 in all of the five items in Updated Sydney System. The numbers having fundic, transitional and pyloric mucosa at incisura angularis under the strictest criterion were 13 (50%), 13 (50%) and 0, respectively. The probability that the type of mucosa at incisura angularis would be pyloric was almost zero (97.5% confidence interval 0-0.132). CONCLUSIONS: Incisura angularis of the stomach may not belong to pyloric, but fundic or transitional mucosa in H. pylori-naïve normal stomach. UMIN000018218.

Association of self-reported religiosity with the development of major depression in multireligious country Japan.

AIM: In Western Christian countries, religiosity is generally believed to be associated with a lower risk for depression, which is supported by epidemiological evidence. However, the association between religiosity and depression in multireligious countries is unknown. The objective was to evaluate the association between religiosity and subsequent depression in a multireligious population. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted in a large hospital in Tokyo, Japan, from 2005 to 2018. All participants who underwent health check-ups without a prior history of depression or depression at baseline were included. Our outcome was development of major depressive disorder (MDD), which was compared according to the degree of religiosity, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among 67 723 adult participants, those who were more religious tended to be older, female, married, and to have healthier habits but also more medical comorbidities at baseline. During a median follow-up of 2528 days, 1911 (2.8%) participants developed MDD. Compared to the reference group, religious group participants tended to have higher odds ratios (OR) for developing MDD in a dose-dependent manner. Among them, the extremely religious group (OR, 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-1.78) and the moderately religious group (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14-1.49) were statistically associated with increased development of MDD compared to the not-religious-at-all group. Those who had increased their religiosity from baseline had statistically lower development of MDD (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.97) compared to those who remained in the same degree of religiosity from baseline. CONCLUSION: Religiosity was associated with future MDD in a dose-dependent manner in a multireligious population, which was in the opposite direction from that seen in previous Western longitudinal studies.

Low level of hemoglobin A1c and the increased incidence of herpes zoster: longitudinal study.

Little is known about the association between glycemic status and herpes zoster. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether glycemic status, including both high and low hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c), is associated with subsequent herpes zoster. We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study in a large teaching hospital in Tokyo, Japan, from 2005 to 2016. We included all participants who underwent voluntary health check-ups at the hospital. Our primary outcome was the incidence of herpes zoster in groups of individuals stratified by HbA1c levels, which were compared using the generalized estimating equation (GEE), adjusting for participants' demographic characteristics, social history, body mass index, and comorbidities. A total of 81,466 participants were included in this study. The mean age (standard deviation) was 46.5 (12.1), and 39,643 (48.7%) participants were male. Among them, 1751 (2.1%) were diagnosed with diabetes prior to their first visits. After a median follow-up of 1784 [interquartile range (IQR), 749-3150] days, 673 (0.8%) participants developed herpes zoster. The incidence of herpes zoster was 1.45 per 1000 person-years. Compared with the reference group (HbA1c of 5.0-6.4%), the lowest HbA1c group (HbA1c of < 5.0%) had a significantly higher adjusted odds ratio (OR) (OR 1.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-2.48) of developing herpes zoster. The group with an HbA1c of ≥ 9.5% had a higher but nonsignificant OR than the reference group (OR 2.15; 95% CI, 0.67-6.94). Our longitudinal study demonstrated that individuals in the lowest (< 5.0%) HbA1c group had a significantly higher risk of developing herpes zoster than the reference group (HbA1c of 5.0-6.4%) after adjusting for covariates.

Long-term recurrent bleeding risk after endoscopic therapy for definitive colonic diverticular bleeding: band ligation versus clipping.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Very few prospective studies with over 100 samples have evaluated the long-term outcomes of endoscopic therapy for colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB). This study sought to elucidate the recurrent bleeding risk of endoscopic band ligation versus clipping for definitive CDB based on stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH). METHODS: Patients emergently hospitalized for acute lower GI bleeding and examined by high-resolution colonoscopy were enrolled. Better visualization of SRH from a diverticulum was obtained using a water-jet device. Endoscopic band ligation or clipping was performed as first-line treatment, and patients were prospectively followed after discharge. RESULTS: No statistical difference was found between the ligation (n = 61) and clipping (n = 47) groups in baseline characteristics or follow-up period. The probability of 1-year recurrent bleeding was 11.5% in the ligation group versus 37.0% in the clipping group (P = .018). No patients required surgery or experienced perforation. One patient in the ligation group experienced diverticulitis the next day. In patients with recurrent bleeding within 7 days, the recurrent bleeding site was the same diverticulum, and ulceration was found in the ligation group on repeat colonoscopy. In patients with recurrent bleeding after 2 months, repeat colonoscopy identified that the recurrent bleeding site was different, and scar formation was seen in the ligation group. The left side of the colon was an independent predictor for recurrent bleeding in the ligation group but not in the clipping group. CONCLUSIONS: Band ligation for definitive CDB has better outcomes than clipping during long-term follow-up after endoscopic therapy, probably because of complete elimination of the diverticulum. CDB can recur at the same diverticulum in the short term but at a different diverticulum in the long term.

Validation of the American Gastroenterological Association guidelines on management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: more than 5 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: Recent guidelines suggest that imaging surveillance be conducted for 5 years for patients with at most one high-risk feature. If there were no significant changes, surveillance is stopped. We sought to validate this follow-up strategy. METHODS: In study 1, data were analysed for 392 patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and at most one high-risk feature who were periodically followed up for more than 1 year with imaging tests. In study 2, data were analysed for 159 IPMN patients without worsening high-risk features after 5 years (stop surveillance group). RESULTS: In study 1, pancreatic cancer (PC) was identified in 12 patients (27.3%) in the endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) indication group and none in the non-EUS-FNA indication group (P < 0.01). In the EUS-FNA indication group, 11 patients (25%) died, whereas 29 (8.3%) died in the non EUS-FNA indication group (P < 0.01). In study 2 (stop surveillance group), PC was identified in three patients (1.9%) at 84, 103 and 145 months. CONCLUSIONS: PC risk and mortality for IPMNs not showing significant change for 5 years is likely to be low, and the non-EUS-FNA indication can provide reasonable decisions. However, three patients without worsening high-risk features for 5 years developed PC. The stop surveillance strategy should be reconsidered. KEY POINTS: • The AGA guidelines provide reasonable clinical decisions for the EUS-FNA indication. • In stop surveillance group, PC was identified in 3 patients (1.9%). • In stop surveillance group, 2 of 3 PC patients died from PC. • Risk of pancreatic cancer in "stop surveillance" group is not negligible.

New predictive model for acute gastrointestinal bleeding in patients taking oral anticoagulants: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The study developed a predictive model of long-term gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding risk in patients receiving oral anticoagulants and compared it with the HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratios, Elderly, Drugs/alcohol concomitantly) score. METHODS: The study periodically followed a cohort of 508 patients taking oral anticoagulants (66 direct oral anticoagulants users and 442 warfarin users). Absence of GI bleeding at an initial examination and any subsequent GI bleeding were confirmed endoscopically. The bleeding model was developed by multivariate survival analysis and evaluated by Harrell's c-index. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 31.4 months, 42 GI bleeds (8.3%) occurred: 42.8% in the upper GI tract, 50.0% in the lower GI tract, and 7.1% in the middle GI tract. The cumulative 5 and 10-year probability of GI bleeding was 12.6% and 18.5%, respectively. Patients who bled had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.9, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that absence of proton pump inhibitor therapy, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of peptic ulcer disease, and liver cirrhosis predicted GI bleeding. The c-statistic for the new predictive model using these five factors was 0.65 (P < 0.001), higher than the HAS-BLED score of 0.57 (P = 0.145). CONCLUSIONS: Gastrointestinal bleeding increased the risk of subsequent mortality during follow-up of anticoagulated patients, highlighting the importance of prevention. The study developed a new scoring model for acute GI bleeding risk based on five factors (no-proton pump inhibitor use, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of peptic ulcer disease, and liver cirrhosis), which was superior to the HAS-BLED score.

Postchallenge hyperglycemia in subjects with low body weight: implication for small glucose volume.

A hypothesis that postchallenge hyperglycemia in subjects with low body weight (BW) may be due, in part, to small glucose volume (GV) was tested. We studied 11,411 nondiabetic subjects with a mean BW of 63.3 kg; 5,282 of them were followed for a mean of 5.3 yr. In another group of 1,537 nondiabetic subjects, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and a product of the two (index of whole body insulin action) were determined. Corrected 2 h-plasma glucose (2hPGcorr) during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test in subjects with BW ≤ 59 kg was calculated as 2hPGcorr = δPG2h · ECW/[16.1 (males) or 15.3 (females)] + fasting PG (FPG), where δPG2h is plasma glucose increment in 2 h; ECW is extracellular water (surrogate of GV); FPG is fasting plasma glucose; and 16.1 and 15.3 are ECW of men and women, respectively, with BW = 59 kg. Multivariate analyses for BW with adjustment for age, sex, and percent body fat were undertaken. BW was, across its entire range, positively correlated with FPG (P < 0.01). Whereas BW was correlated with 2hPG and δPG in a skewed J-shape, with inflections at around 60 kg (P for nonlinearity < 0.01 for each). Nonetheless, in those with BW ≤ 59 kg, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and action were unattenuated, and incident diabetes was less compared with heavier counterparts. BW was linearly correlated with 2hPGcorr, i.e., the J-shape correlation was mitigated by the correction. In conclusion, postchallenge hyperglycemia in low BW subjects is in part due to small GV rather than impaired glucose metabolism.

Acute Severe Gastrointestinal Tract Bleeding Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Thromboembolism and Death.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with and without gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) to determine whether GIB increases the risks of thromboembolism and death. METHODS: We collected data from 522 patients with acute severe GIB and 1044 patients without GIB (control subjects, matched for age, sex, year of diagnosis, history of thromboembolism, and use of antithrombotic drugs) who underwent endoscopy at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan from January 2009 through December 2014. Hazard ratios of GIB for thromboembolism and mortality risk were estimated, adjusting for confounders. We also compared standardized mortality ratios between the GIB cohort and the age- and sex-matched general population in Japan. RESULTS: During a mean follow up of 23.7 months, thromboembolism was identified in 11.5% of patients with GIB and 2.4% of control subjects (hazard ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-8.5; P < .001). Multivariate analysis revealed GIB as a risk factor for all-thromboembolic events, cerebrovascular events, and cardiovascular events. During a mean follow-up of 24.6 months, 15.9% of patients with GIB and 8.6% of control subjects died (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; P < .001). Multivariate analysis revealed GIB as a risk factor for all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, patients with GIB were at increased risk of death (standardized mortality ratio, 12.0). CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective analysis of patients undergoing endoscopy in Japan, we identified acute GIB was a significant risk factor for late thromboembolism and death, compared with patients without GIB. GIB also increased risk of death compared with the general population.

Sudden Death Phenomenon While Bathing in Japan　- Mortality Data.

BACKGROUND: Bath-related sudden cardiac arrest frequently occurs in Japan, but the mortality data have not been sufficiently reported.Methods and Results:This prospective cross-sectional observational study was conducted in the Tokyo Metropolis, Saga Prefecture and Yamagata Prefecture between October 2012 and March 2013 (i.e., in winter). We investigated the data for all occurrences in these areas for which the emergency medical system needed to be activated because of an accident or acute illness related to bathing. Emergency personnel enrolled the event when activation of the emergency medical system was related to bathing. Of the 4,599 registered bath-related events, 1,527 (33%) were identified as bath-related cardiac arrest events. Crude mortality (no. deaths per 100,000) during the observational period was 10.0 in Tokyo, 11.6 in Yamagata and 8.5 in Saga. According to the mortality data for age and sex, the estimated number of bath-related deaths nationwide was 13,369 in winter, for the 6 months from October (95% CI: 10,862-16,887). Most cardiac arrest events occurred in tubs filled with water with the face submerged in the water. This suggests that drowning plays a crucial role in the etiology of such phenomena. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated nationwide number of deaths was 13,369 (95% CI: 10,862-16,887) in winter, for the 6 months from October. Crude mortality during the winter season was 10.0 in Tokyo, 11.6 in Yamagata and 8.5 in Saga.

A positive family history of hypertension might be associated with an accelerated onset of type 2 diabetes: Results from the National Center Diabetes Database (NCDD-02).

Type 2 diabetes, which is characterized by a combination of decreased insulin secretion and decreased insulin sensitivity, can be delayed or prevented by healthy lifestyle behaviors. Therefore, it is important that the population in general understands their personal risk at an early age to reduce their chances of ever developing the disease. A family history of hypertension is known to be associated with insulin resistance, but the effect of a family history of hypertension on the onset of type 2 diabetes has not well been examined. We performed a retrospective study examining patient age at the time of the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes by analyzing a dataset of 1,299 patients (1,021 men and 278 women) who had been diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes during a health checkup. The mean ± standard deviation of the patient age at the time of the diagnosis of diabetes was 49.1 ± 10.4 years for patients with a family history of hypertension and 51.8 ± 11.4 years for patients without a family history of hypertension (p < 0.001). A multivariate linear regression analysis showed a significant association between a family history of hypertension and a younger age at the time of the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, independent of a family history of diabetes mellitus and a male sex, suggesting that a positive family history of hypertension might be associated with the accelerated onset of type 2 diabetes.

Safety and Effectiveness of Early Colonoscopy in Management of Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding on the Basis of Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated the safety and effectiveness of early colonoscopy (performed within 24 hours of hospital admission) for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) vs elective colonoscopy (performed 24 hours after admission). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study by using a database of endoscopies performed at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Tokyo, Japan from January 2009 through December 2014. We analyzed data from 538 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB. We used propensity score matching to adjust for differences between patients who underwent early colonoscopy vs elective colonoscopy. Outcomes included rates of adverse events during bowel preparation and colonoscopy procedures, stigmata of recent hemorrhage, endoscopic therapy, blood transfusion requirement, 30-day rebleeding and mortality, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS: We selected 163 pairs of patients for analysis on the basis of propensity matching. We observed no significant differences between the early and elective colonoscopy groups in bowel preparation-related rates of adverse events (1.8% vs 1.2%, P = .652), colonoscopy-related rates of adverse events (none in either group), blood transfusion requirement (27.6% vs 27.6%, P = 1.000), or mortality (1.2% vs 0, P = .156). The early colonoscopy group had higher rates than the elective group for stigmata of recent hemorrhage (26.4% vs 9.2%, P < .001) and endoscopic therapy (25.8% vs 8.6%, P < .001), including clipping (17.8% vs 4.9%, P < .001), band ligation (6.1% vs 1.8%, P = .048), and rebleeding (13.5% vs 7.4%, P = .070). Patients in the early colonoscopy group stayed in the hospital for a shorter mean time (10 days) than patients in the elective colonoscopy group (13 days) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Early colonoscopy for patients with acute LGIB is safe, allows for endoscopic therapy because it identifies the bleeding source, and reduces hospital stay. However, compared with elective colonoscopy, early colonoscopy does not reduce mortality and may increase the risk for rebleeding.

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to determine the risk of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and predict patient outcomes. METHODS: We first performed a retrospective analysis of data from 439 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, from January 2009 through December 2013. We used data on comorbidities, medication, presenting symptoms, and vital signs, and laboratory test results to develop a scoring system for severe LGIB (defined as continuous and/or recurrent bleeding). We validated the risk score in a prospective study of 161 patients with acute LGIB admitted to the same center from April 2014 through April 2015. We assessed the system's accuracy in predicting patient outcome using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. All patients underwent colonoscopy. RESULTS: In the first study, 29% of the patients developed severe LGIB. We devised a risk scoring system based on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or lower, antiplatelet drugs use, albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, disease scores of 2 or higher, and syncope (NOBLADS), which all were independent correlates of severe LGIB. Severe LGIB developed in 75.7% of patients with scores of 5 or higher compared with 2% of patients without any of the factors correlated with severe LGIB (P < .001). The NOBLADS score determined the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.77. In the validation (second) study, severe LGIB developed in 35% of patients; the NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.76. Higher NOBLADS scores were associated with a requirement for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention (P < .05 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a scoring system for risk of severe LGIB based on 8 factors (NOBLADS score). The system also determined the risk for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention. It might be used in decision making regarding intervention and management.

Development of Pancreatic Cancer, Disease-specific Mortality, and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Nonresected IPMNs: A Long-term Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: To determine the cumulative incidence, disease-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality of pancreatic cancer (PC) in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and to identify imaging findings that are associated with these outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study had institutional review board approval, and the need to obtain patient consent was waived. Data from an electronic database were analyzed and supplemented by chart reviews for 285 patients with nonresected IPMNs who were periodically followed up with imaging (1273 multidetector computed tomography and 750 magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography examinations). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative development of PC, PC mortality, and all-cause mortality (factors were compared by using the log-rank test). RESULTS: Over a median imaging follow-up period of 39 months, 12 (4.2%) of 285 patients developed PC; the cumulative 5-year PC incidence was 3.9% for branch duct (BD)-IPMNs, 45.5% for main duct (MD)-IPMNs (P < .01), 7.7% for cysts 30 mm or larger, and 5.3% for cysts smaller than 30 mm (P = .82). Over a median survival follow-up period of 47.5 months, seven (2.5%) of 285 patients died of PC and 14 (4.9%) patients died of other causes. Cumulative 5-year PC mortality was 2.1% for BD-IPMNs, 18.5% for MD-IPMNs (P < .01), 2.6% for cysts 30 mm or larger, and 2.8% for cysts smaller than 30 mm (P = .90). Cumulative 5-year all-cause mortality was 5.5% for BD-IPMNs, 18.5% for MD-IPMNs (P < .01), 12.5% for cysts 30 mm or larger, and 5.9% for cysts smaller than 30 mm (P = .89). CONCLUSION: Five-year PC development, disease-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality were approximately 4%, 2%, and 6% for BD-IPMNs and 46%, 19%, and 19% for MD-IPMNs, respectively. The presence of an MD-IPMN, but not cyst size, was significantly associated with PC development and subsequent mortality.

Recurrence and prognosis of patients emergently hospitalized for acute esophageal variceal bleeding: A long-term cohort study.

AIM: To elucidate the rates of recurrence and mortality in acute esophageal variceal bleeding and the associated risk factors. METHODS: A cohort of 174 patients emergently hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding was analyzed. All patients underwent endoscopic variceal ligation within 3 h of arrival. Comorbidities, vital signs, drug use, laboratory data, etiology, endoscopic findings, transfusion requirement, and follow-up endoscopy were assessed. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: Rebleeding was identified in 49 patients with a mean follow-up of 18 months. The cumulative rebleeding rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 10.2%, 30.0%, and 51.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for rebleeding were child-Pugh class C (HR 1.94; P = 0.027), alcoholic liver cirrhosis (HR 2.32; P = 0.01), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 13.3; P < 0.001). During the overall mean follow-up of 22 months, 69 patients died (17 due to bleeding), and the cumulative mortality rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 12.2%, 26.6%, and 63.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were child-Pugh class C (HR 2.91; P < 0.001), coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.92; P = 0.013), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 23.6; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study revealed more than 50% cumulative rebleeding and mortality in the 5-year period after endoscopic variceal ligation for esophageal variceal bleeding in an emergency setting. Child-Pugh C, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of rebleeding; Child-Pugh C, coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of mortality.

New predictive model of rebleeding during follow-up of patents with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The long-term recurrence rate of patients with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB) who underwent video capsule endoscopy (VCE) remains unknown. Our study aimed to identify the cumulative incidence of rebleeding, develop a predictive model of rebleeding, and evaluate whether the model can be applied in other outcomes among patients with OGIB. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study of 320 patients with OGIB who underwent VCE between 2009 and 2014. A rebleeding model was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis and evaluated using Harrell's c-index. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 43 patients (13.4%) during a mean follow-up period of 18.3 (standard error, 0.9) months. The rebleeding sources were the small intestine (n = 17), extra-small intestine (n = 13), and unknown (n = 13). The cumulative incidence of rebleeding was 11.0% at 12 months and 35.3% at 60 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that female gender, liver cirrhosis, warfarin use, overt bleeding, and positive VCE findings were significant predictors of rebleeding. The rebleeding rate was 0% in patients with no predictors and 40% in patients with full predictors (P < 0.01). The model presented a high predictive accuracy (c-statistic, 0.733). Patients with higher predictors exhibited higher transfusion requirements, longer length of stay, and higher mortality (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of rebleeding at 12 and 60 months was 11.0% and 35.3%, respectively. Five factors enable prediction of not only rebleeding but also transfusion requirements, length of stay, and death in OGIB patients.