Diabetes, Edentulism, and Cognitive Decline: A 12-Year Prospective Analysis.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a recognized risk factor for dementia, and increasing evidence shows that tooth loss is associated with cognitive impairment and dementia. However, the effect of the co-occurrence of DM and edentulism on cognitive decline is understudied. This 12-y cohort study aimed to assess the effect of the co-occurrence of DM and edentulism on cognitive decline and examine whether the effect differs by age group. Data were drawn from the 2006 to 2018 Health and Retirement Study. The study sample included 5,440 older adults aged 65 to 74 y, 3,300 aged 75 to 84 y, and 1,208 aged 85 y or older. Linear mixed-effect regression was employed to model the rates of cognitive decline stratified by age cohorts. Compared with their counterparts with neither DM nor edentulism at baseline, older adults aged 65 to 74 y (ß = -1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.56 to -0.65; P < 0.001) and those aged 75 to 84 y with both conditions (ß = -1.35; 95% CI, -2.09 to -0.61; P < 0.001) had a worse cognitive function. For the rate of cognitive decline, compared to those with neither condition from the same age cohort, older adults aged 65 to 74 y with both conditions declined at a higher rate (ß = -0.15; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.10; P < 0.001). Having DM alone led to an accelerated cognitive decline in older adults aged 65 to 74 y (ß = -0.09; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.05; P < 0.001); having edentulism alone led to an accelerated decline in older adults aged 65 to 74 y (ß = -0.13; 95% CI, -0.17 to -0.08; P < 0.001) and older adults aged 75 to 84 (ß = -0.10; 95% CI, -0.17 to -0.03; P < 0.01). Our study finds the co-occurrence of DM and edentulism led to a worse cognitive function and a faster cognitive decline in older adults aged 65 to 74 y.

Mothers and fathers in the criminal justice system and children's child protective services involvement.

BACKGROUND: Parental criminal justice system (CJS) involvement is a marker for child protective services (CPS) involvement. OBJECTIVE: To document how parental criminal case processing affects children's CPS involvement. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Participants included mothers and fathers with a serious criminal charge (mothers = 78,882; fathers = 165,070) and without any criminal charge (mothers = 962,963; fathers = 743,604) between 2008-2012. Statewide North Carolina records on court proceedings, births, CPS assessments/investigations, and foster care placements were used. METHODS: The observational unit was an individual's first charge date of a year. Outcomes were CPS assessment/investigation and foster care entry within six months and alternatively three years following the charge. Key explanatory variables were whether the charges resulted in prosecution, conviction following prosecution, and an active sentence conditional on conviction. An instrumental variables approach was used. RESULTS: Parents charged with a criminal offense had higher rates of having a CPS assessment/investigation during the three years preceding the charge than parents who were not charged. Among mothers who were convicted, CPS assessment/investigation increased 8.1 percent (95 % CI: 2.2, 13.9) and 9.5 percent (95 % CI: 1.3, 17.6) 6 months and 3 years following the charge. An active sentence increased CPS assessment/investigations by 21.6 percent (95 % CI: 6.4, 36.7) within 6 months. For fathers, active sentence increased foster care placement by 1.6 percent (95 % CI: 0.24, 2.9) within 6 months of the criminal charge. CONCLUSIONS: Changing parental incarceration rates would change CPS caseloads substantially. The criminal justice and CPS systems work with overlapping populations, data and services sharing should be considered a high priority.

Changing patterns of hospitalization for children requiring surgery.

Increasing health care costs have directed public attention to changing rates of hospital care. We examined changes in hospitalization and surgical rates for children during the decade from 1972 to 1981. Total hospitalizations for children younger than 15 years of age increased by only 4% during the decade. For teenagers and young adults (ages 15 to 24 years), hospitalizations declined by 19%. Admissions for surgery declined more for the younger group than for the older one. For children younger than 15 years of age, inpatient tonsillectomies and adenoidectomies (T and A) decreased 43%, representing 58% of the total decline in surgical procedures for this age group. Teaching hospitals continued to provide a sizable proportion of all childhood surgeries and increased their share of both high- and low-technology procedures during the decade. Payment sources varied among procedures. Self-pay varied from a low of 1.6% for T and A to 13.5% for spina bifida. Private insurance or Blue Cross payment varied from 59% for congenital heart disease surgery to 84% for T and A. These data on payments suggest that some children may lack access to some surgical care. Furthermore, insofar as the bulk of payment is from nonfederal sources, changes in hospitalization for surgical procedures will likely come mainly from changing incentives in the private sector.

How much do persons with Alzheimer's disease cost Medicare?

BACKGROUND: Medicare claims are increasingly being used to identify persons with chronic diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) for the purpose of determining the cost to Medicare of caring for such persons. Past work has been limited by the use of only 1 or 2 years of claims data to identify cases, leading to worries that this might lead to an undercount of prevalent cases and bias cost findings. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the average total cost to the Medicare program in 1994 of persons with a claims-based diagnosis of AD, using a 12-year period of claims history to identify prevalent cases, and to investigate the effect on cost of time since diagnosis. DESIGN: A cross-sectional design with a 12-year retrospective period to identify persons with AD. SETTING: Medical care practices, hospitals, and other providers of services to Medicare beneficiaries in the US in 1994. SUBJECTS: Respondents to the screener (n = 10,858) and community (5429) and institutional (n = 1341) questionnaire of the 1994 National Long Term Care Survey, with and without a claims-based diagnosis of AD. MEASUREMENTS: Average total cost to Medicare in 1994, measured as the actual amount Medicare paid for inpatient, outpatient, home health, skilled nursing facility, hospice, and Part B services, including payments to physicians, and other items such as durable medical equipment. We also measured disability in a variety of ways, including cognition, activity limitations, and residence in a nursing home. RESULTS: The average total cost to Medicare of persons with a claims-based diagnosis of AD was $6021 versus $2310 (P < .001) for persons without a diagnosis. When adjusting for patient characteristics, the ratio of cost between persons with AD and those without was reduced to about 1.6 to 1. Time since diagnosis was an important predictor of average total cost in 1994, with each additional year since diagnosis resulting in a $248 (P = .04) decrease in total cost (about 10% of the total sample mean cost of $2426). There was mixed evidence that persons with a diagnosis of AD incurred less cost than otherwise similarly disabled Medicare beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: Time since diagnosis with AD is an important predictor of cost and one that should be explicitly included in any rate-setting formula. Expanding the period used to identify cases resulted in an increase in the unadjusted ratio of cost of a Medicare beneficiary with AD relative to one without primarily because our control group costs are lower compared with those of past work.

In-hospital mortality of surgical patients: is there an empiric basis for standard setting?

Several public and private groups have set minimum procedure-specific volume standards. Such standards reflect concerns about hospital quality and cost. In-hospital mortality rates are often taken as one measure of quality. To learn about variations in in-hospital mortality rates, we analyzed data on patients who underwent any of seven surgical procedures from a national cohort of 521 hospitals observed continuously between 1972 and 1981. On the average, mortality rates fell as the number of procedures performed annually at the hospital rose. Volumes at which mortality rates reached minimum levels were far higher than actual volumes achieved by the vast majority of hospitals. However, knowledge of hospital volumes left the major part of variation among hospitals' procedure-specific mortality rates unexplained. Many hospitals with low volumes of certain procedures had no associated deaths. Hospitals experienced appreciable year-to-year variation in mortality even though mortality rates fell with the number of years the procedure was performed at the hospital. Correlations among mortality rates for the procedures were low, suggesting that variation in rates is procedure rather than hospital specific. State rate-setting programs had no effect on mortality rates associated with the procedures analyzed. For several reasons, we conclude that an adequate statistical basis for setting minimum volume standards does not presently exist.

No-fault system of compensation for obstetric injury: winners and losers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether Florida's implementation of a no-fault system for birth-related neurologic injuries reduced lawsuits and total spending associated with such injuries, and whether no-fault was more efficient than tort in distributing compensation. METHODS: We compared claims and payments before and after implementation of a no-fault system in 1989. Data came from the Department of Insurance's medical malpractice closed claim files and no-fault records. Descriptive statistics were compiled for tort claims before 1989 and for tort and no-fault claims for 1989-1991. We developed two projection approaches to estimate claims and payments after 1989, with and without no-fault. We assessed the program's performance on the basis of comparisons of actual and projected values for 1989-1991. RESULTS: The number of tort claims for permanent labor-delivery injury and death fell 16-32%. However, when no-fault claims were added to tort claims, total claims frequency rose by 11-38%. Annually, an estimated 479 children suffered birth-related injuries; however, only 13 were compensated under no-fault. Total combined payments to patients and all lawyers did not decrease, but of the total, a much larger portion went to patients. Compensation of patients after plaintiff lawyers' fees rose 4% or 44%, depending on the projection method used. Less than 3% of total payments went to lawyers under no-fault versus 39% under tort. CONCLUSION: Some claimants with birth-related injuries were winners, taking home a larger percentage of their awards than their tort counterparts. Lawyers clearly lost under no-fault. Because of the narrow statutory definition, many children with birth-related neurologic injuries did not qualify for coverage.

Adverse selection: does it preclude a competitive health insurance market?

In sum, although fixed dollar subsidies have the great virtue of ferreting out cross subsidies, society may not be satisfied with the results. The scenario described by Marquis is only one of many. People seem to want lifetime insurance offering low premiums if things go bad rather than premiums that change annually as health outcomes are realized [see, e.g., Light (1992)]. But nondiversible risk may be too great for a market in life contracts to exist.

Competition between non-profit and for-profit health insurers.

This study investigates the effects of tax, regulatory, and reimbursement policies and other factors exogenous to the health insurance market on the relative price (to commercial insurers) paid by Blue Cross plans for hospital care, their administrative expense and accounting profits, premiums, and ultimately Blue Cross market share. We specify and estimate a simultaneous equation model to assess interrelationships among these variables. We conclude that premium tax advantages enjoyed by the Blues have virtually no effect on the Blues' premiums or their market shares. A Blue Cross plans' market share has a positive effect on the discount it obtains from hospitals as does coverage of Blue Shield charges by a state-mandated rate-setting plan. An upper bound on the effect on the Blue Cross market share of covering Blue Cross under rate-setting but excluding the commercials from such coverage is seven percentage points. Tests for administrative slack in the operation of Blue Cross plans yield mixed results.

Unions and hospitals: some unresolved issues.

This article investigates the impact of unions on the wages of hospital workers. Our OLS findings agree with previous OLS studies--unions increase registered nurses' (RNs) wages by five percent and by about eight to ten percent for other hospital workers. By contrast, we find (after correcting for selectivity bias in hospital unionization status) a direct union effect of about twenty percent on RN wages and in excess of thirty percent on wages of other hospital workers. While the results based on selectivity bias adjustments make us uneasy, we do not reject them out-of-hand. We also find indirect union effects (up to five percent) by other unionized occupations within a hospital and up to ten percent by other unionized hospitals in the local labor market. Prospective reimbursement programs have a negative impact on the wages of hospital workers but are only significant for non-unionized occupations. Our three empirical tests of monopsony all reject the view that monopsony is a factor in hospital wage-setting. Even considering the large union effects (based on selectivity bias adjustment), we conclude that unions have been a minor contributor to hospital cost inflation.

Equity and accuracy in medical malpractice insurance pricing.

This study examines alternative classification approaches for setting medical malpractice insurance premiums. Insurers generally form risk classification categories on factors other than the physician's own loss experience. Our analysis of such classification approaches indicates different but no more categories than now used. An actuarially-fair premium-setting scheme based on the frequency and severity of the individual physician's losses would substantially penalize adverse experience. Alternatively, premiums could be set for groups of physicians, such as hospital medical staffs. Our simulations suggest that even staffs at rather small hospitals may be large enough to be experience-rated.

Cost of capital to the hospital sector.

This paper provides estimates of the cost of equity and debt capital to for-profit and non-profit hospitals in the U.S. for the years 1972-83. The cost of equity is estimated using, alternatively, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find that the cost of equity capital, using either model, substantially exceeded anticipated inflation. The cost of debt capital was much lower. Accounting for the corporate tax shield on debt and capital paybacks by cost-based insurers lowered the net cost of capital to hospitals.

Diffusion of surgical technology. An exploratory study.

The study presents an empirical analysis of the diffusion patterns of five surgical procedures. Roles of payer mix, regulatory policies, physician diffusion, competition among hospitals, and various hospital characteristics such as size and the spread of technologies are examined. The principal data base is a time series cross-section of 521 hospitals based on discharge abstracts sent to the Commission on Professional and Hospital Activities. Results on the whole are consistent with a framework used to study innovations in other contexts in which the decisions of whether to innovate and timing depend on anticipated streams of returns and cost. Innovation tends to be more likely to occur in markets in which the more generous payers predominate. But the marginal effects of payer mix are small compared to effects of location and hospital characteristics, such as size and teaching status. Hospital rate-setting sometimes retarded diffusion. Certificate of need programs did not.

Effects of teaching on hospital costs.

This study estimates effects of undergraduate and graduate medical education on hospital costs, using a national sample of 367 U.S. community hospitals observed in 1974 and 1977. Data on other cost determinants, such as casemix, allow us to isolate the influence of teaching with greater precision than most previous studies. Non-physician expense in major teaching hospitals is at most 20 percent higher than in non-teaching hospitals; the teaching effect is about half this for hospitals with more limited teaching programs. Results for ancillary service departments are consistent with those for the hospital as a whole.

Alternative approaches to valuing intangible health losses: the evidence for multiple sclerosis.

This study uses both risk-risk and risk-dollar approaches to assess intangible health losses associated with multiple sclerosis (MS). Using an estimation approach that adjusts for potential perceptional biases that may effect the expressed risk tradeoffs, we estimated parameters of the utility function of persons with and without MS as well as the degree of subjects" overestimation of the probability of obtaining MS. The sample included subjects from the general population and persons with MS. We found that marginal utility of income is lower in the state with MS than without it. However, the difference in marginal in two states was greater for persons without MS than for those with the disease. Persons with MS overestimated the probability of acquiring MS to a greater extent than did persons within MS. Correcting for overestimation of this probability, the value of intangible loss of a statistical case of MS derived from responses of the general population was US$350,000 to US$500.000. Persons with MS were willing to pay somewhat more than this (D80,118,J17).

Hospital ownership and cost and quality of care: is there a dime's worth of difference?

Nonprofit organizations may predominate when output quality is difficult to monitor. Hospital care has this characteristic. This study compared program cost and quality of care for Medicare patients hospitalized following onset of four common conditions by hospital ownership. Payments on behalf of Medicare patients admitted to for-profit hospitals during the first 6 months following a health shock were higher than for those admitted to other hospitals. With quality measured in terms of survival, changes in functional and cognitive status, and living arrangements, we found no differences in outcomes by hospital ownership.

The internal organization of hospitals: a descriptive study.

This study presents descriptive information on several dimensions of the internal organization of hospitals, with particular emphasis on medical staff, using data from two unique national surveys. Three alternative theories of hospital behavior by economists are described and evaluated with these data. The study also shows how standard bed size, teaching, and ownership categories relate to important features of hospital organization. In this way, understanding of these standard "control" variables is enhanced. For example, systematic organizational differences between proprietary and other hospitals are reported, holding bed size and teaching status constant. No single theory of hospital behavior emerges as dominant. The tables demonstrate the diversity of hospitals and the likelihood that no single model can adequately describe the behavior of all hospitals.

Hospital profitability and capital structure: a comparative analysis.

This article compares the financial performance of hospitals by ownership type and of five publicly traded hospital companies with other industries, using such indicators as profit margins, return on equity (ROE) and total capitalization, and debt-to-equity ratios. We also examine stock returns to investors for the five hospital companies versus other industries, as well as the relative roles of debt and equity in new financing. Investor-owned hospitals had substantially greater margins and ROE than did other hospital types. In 1982, investor-owned chain hospitals had a ROE of 26 percent, 18 points above the average for all hospitals. Stock returns on the five selected hospital companies were more than twice as large as returns on other industries between 1972 and 1983. However, after 1983, returns for these companies fell dramatically in absolute terms and relative to other industries. We also found investor-owned hospitals to be much more highly levered than their government and voluntary counterparts, and more highly levered than other industries as well.

Union activity in hospitals: past, present, and future.

Between 1970 and 1980, the percentage of hospitals with one or more collective bargaining contracts increased from 15.7 percent to 27.4 percent. A substantial amount of variation exists in the extent of unionism on the basis of hospital ownership, bed size, and location. Employees are more likely to organize when hospitals in the State are regulated by a mandatory rate-setting program. Unions raise hospital employee's wages--a modal estimate for RNs is about 6 percent; the corresponding figure for nonprofessional employees is about 10 percent. Growth of union activity in hospitals has generally not been a major contributor to hospital wage inflation, and less than 10 percent of the increase in real (relative to the Consumer Price Index) spending for hospital care that occurred during the 1970s can be attributed to union growth. We project that between 45 and 50 percent of all hospitals will have at least one union by 1990.

Why has hospital length of stay declined? An evaluation of alternative theories.

This study evaluates the importance of several potential determinants of observed decreases in hospital stays for patients undergoing each of 11 surgical procedures using a panel of 521 hospitals covering 1971-1981. Observed decreases in stays for these patients were substantial. If anything, the complexity of cases treated rose and, for this reason, stays should have risen. Neither state prospective payment nor Professional Standards Review Organization programs reduced stays and may have increased them. Competitive influences had no effect. Changes in payer mix and hospital ownership were too small to have had an impact. Evidently the decreases were mainly due to improvements in surgical technique and other changes in medical practice. Several implications for Medicare's new payment system are discussed.

Hospital pharmacy decisions, cost containment, and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis.

The key hypothesis of the study was that hospital pharmacies under the pressure of managed care would be more likely to adopt process innovations to assure less costly and more cost-effective provision of care. We conducted a survey of 103 hospitals and analyzed secondary data on cost and staffing. Compared to the size of the reduction in length of stay, changes in the way that a day of care is delivered appear to be minor, even in areas with substantial managed care share. The vast majority of hospitals surveyed had implemented some form of therapeutic interchange and generic substitution. Most hospitals used some drug utilization guidelines, but as of mid 1995 these were not yet important management tools for hospital pharmacies. To our knowledge, ours was the first survey to investigate the link between hospital formularies and use of cost-effectiveness analysis. At most cost-effectiveness was a minor tool in pharmaceutical decision making in hospitals at present. We could determine no differences in use of such analyses by managed care market share in the hospital's market share. One impediment to the use of cost-effectiveness studies was the lack of timeliness of studies. Other stated reasons for not using cost-effectiveness analysis more often were: lack of information on hospitalized patients and hence on the potential cost offsets accruing to the hospital: lack of independent sponsorship, and inadequate expertise in economic evaluation.