A scoring tool to predict mortality and dependency after cerebral venous thrombosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A prognostic score was developed to predict dependency and death after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) to identify patients for targeted therapy in future clinical trials. METHODS: Data from the International CVT Consortium were used. Patients with pre-existent functional dependency were excluded. Logistic regression was used to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3-6) at 6 months and Cox regression to predict 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. Potential predictors derived from previous studies were selected with backward stepwise selection. Coefficients were shrunk using ridge regression to adjust for optimism in internal validation. RESULTS: Of 1454 patients with CVT, the cumulative number of deaths was 44 (3%) and 70 (5%) for 30 days and 1 year, respectively. Of 1126 patients evaluated regarding functional outcome, 137 (12%) were dependent or dead at 6 months. From the retained predictors for both models, the SI2 NCAL2 C score was derived utilizing the following components: absence of female-sex-specific risk factor, intracerebral hemorrhage, infection of the central nervous system, neurological focal deficits, coma, age, lower level of hemoglobin (g/l), higher level of glucose (mmol/l) at admission, and cancer. C-statistics were 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.84), 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88) for the poor outcome, 30-day and 1-year mortality model, respectively. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit between predicted and observed values. The SI2 NCAL2 C score calculator is freely available at www.cerebralvenousthrombosis.com. CONCLUSIONS: The SI2 NCAL2 C score shows adequate performance for estimating individual risk of mortality and dependency after CVT but external validation of the score is warranted.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Score to Predict Epilepsy After Cerebral Venous Thrombosis.

Importance: One of 10 patients develop epilepsy in the late phase after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) diagnosis but predicting the individual risk is difficult. Objective: To develop and externally validate a prognostic score to estimate the individual risk of post-CVT epilepsy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational cohort study included both retrospective and prospective patients enrolled from 1994 through 2022. For development of the DIAS3 score, data from the International CVT Consortium (n = 1128), a large international hospital-based multicenter CVT cohort, were used. For validation, data from 2 independent multicenter cohorts, the ACTION-CVT (n = 543) and the Israel CVT study (n = 556), were used. Of 2937 eligible, consecutively enrolled adult patients with radiologically verified CVT, 710 patients with a history of epilepsy prior to CVT, follow-up less than 8 days, and missing late seizure status were excluded. Exposure: The prediction score (DIAS3) was developed based on available literature and clinical plausibility and consisted of 6 readily available clinical variables collected during the acute phase: decompressive hemicraniectomy, intracerebral hemorrhage at presentation, age, seizure(s) in the acute phase (excluding status epilepticus), status epilepticus in the acute phase, and subdural hematoma at presentation. Main Outcome and Measure: Time to a first late seizure, defined as occurring more than 7 days after diagnosis of CVT. Results: Of 1128 patients included in the derivation cohort (median age, 41 [IQR, 30-53] years; 805 women [71%]), 128 (11%) developed post-CVT epilepsy during a median follow-up of 12 (IQR, 3-26) months. According to the DIAS3 score, the predicted 1-year and 3-year risk of epilepsy in individual patients ranged from 7% to 68% and 10% to 83%, respectively. Internal and external validation showed adequate discrimination in the derivation cohort (1 year and 3 years: C statistic, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.70-0.79) and the 2 independent validation cohorts, (ACTION-CVT) 1 year: C statistic, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.67-0.84; 3 years: C statistic, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.66-0.84; and Israel CVT study 1 year: C statistic, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.86. Calibration plots indicated adequate agreement between predicted and observed risks. Conclusions and Relevance: The DIAS3 score (freely available online) is a simple tool that can help predict the risk of post-CVT epilepsy in individual patients. The model can improve opportunities for personalized medicine and may aid in decision-making regarding antiseizure medication, patient counseling, and facilitation of research on epileptogenesis in CVT.