Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions.

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

Future scenarios of marine resources and ecosystem conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean under the impacts of fishing, alien species and sea warming.

Using a temporal-dynamic calibrated Ecosim food web model, we assess the effects of future changes on marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Israeli Mediterranean continental shelf. This region has been intensely invaded by Indo-Pacific species. The region is exposed to extreme environmental conditions, is subjected to high rates of climate change and has experienced intense fishing pressure. We test the impacts of a new set of fishing regulations currently being implemented, a continued increase in sea temperatures following IPCC projections, and a continued increase in alien species biomass. We first investigate the impacts of the stressors separately, and then we combine them to evaluate their cumulative effects. Our results show overall potential future benefits of fishing effort reductions, and detrimental impacts of increasing sea temperature and increasing biomass of alien species. Cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fisheries reduction may be dampened by the impact of increasing sea temperature and alien species when acting together. These results illustrate the importance of including stressors other than fisheries, such as climate change and biological invasions, in an ecosystem-based management approach. These results support the need for reducing local and regional stressors, such as fishing and biological invasions, in order to promote resilience to sea warming.

Evaluation of postprocessing dual-energy methods in quantitative computed tomography. Part 1. Theoretical considerations.

Five postprocessing methods for dual-energy quantitative computed tomography of the vertebral body were evaluated theoretically. The methods were compared by transforming the original sets of equations to a standard set. Only two of these methods produced optimal results, namely the basic approach of Goodsitt et al and the method of Nickoloff et al. The calibration approach of Goodsitt et al will produce optimal results only if calibration materials are available that mimic the anatomic constituents of the vertebral body better than those available currently. Theoretically, the methods of Cann et al and of Laval-Jeantet et al will not produce optimal results.

Evaluation of postprocessing dual-energy methods in quantitative computed tomography. Part 2. Practical aspects.

Three facets of dual-energy quantitative computed tomography are studied: (1) the algorithm for postprocessing data (the methods of Cann, Laval-Jeantet et al, Goodsitt et al [two methods], and Nickoloff et al); (2) the influence of choice of tissue-equivalent materials for calibration; and (3) the difference between central and peripheral calibration. The different tissue-equivalent materials include bone mineral-equivalent (K2HPO4 solutions and calcium hydroxyapatite), fat-equivalent (liquid paraffin, polyethylene, and 70% ethanol solution), and red marrow-equivalent (plastic). Deviation from the manufacturer's quoted content is least with central positioning of the calibration materials. The accuracy of estimates is best when the same tissue-equivalent materials are used for calibration that are being measured. The deviations produced by the use of different tissue-equivalent materials indicate the importance of using materials that mimic the components of bone most closely. The two methods of Goodsitt et al and the method of Nickoloff et al produced the best results.

Selection of fat-equivalent materials in postprocessing dual-energy quantitative CT.

Postprocessing dual-energy QCT is supposed to be able to predict the bone mineral more accurately than single-energy QCT. In addition, the fat content in the vertebral body can be determined. To this aim, some methods include fat-equivalent materials in the calibration device. However, the choice of an appropriate fat-equivalent material is difficult. To solve this selection problem, a method has been developed in which the x-ray interactions of tissue are characterized by three energy-independent parameters. For five different known constituents of anatomical fat, fat-equivalent materials are evaluated. It is shown that it is not possible to find one fat-equivalent material for all anatomical fat compositions. For this reason, the influence of a mismatch between the characterization parameters of anatomical fat compositions and fat-equivalent materials has been evaluated. It is shown that a mismatch in tissue characterization parameters can result in deviations of 10% in the bone mineral content and more than 300% in the estimated fat contents.

Influence of calibration materials in single- and dual-energy quantitative CT.

With single-energy (SE) quantitative computed tomography (CT), the density of bone mineral in the vertebral body can be estimated. With dual-energy (DE) quantitative CT, both bone-mineral density and fat content can be measured. The calibration device normally used contains materials mimicking trabecular bone, fat, and hematopoietic tissue. To evaluate the influence of different calibration materials on these estimates, theoretical CT numbers were calculated for the trabecular part of the vertebral body and for different calibration devices. Calibration devices were simulated; they contained either identical materials or various accepted tissue-mimicking materials. For all combinations, quantitative CT data were generated for the SE quantitative CT method and for two DE quantitative CT methods. Only one method provided accurate results under ideal circumstances. The selection of tissue-mimicking materials in the calibration devices is important for the interpretation of results of SE and DE quantitative CT. Errors of more than a factor 2 were found when different types of materials were used.

Neurological deficit in injuries of the thoracic and lumbar spine. A consecutive series of 70 patients.

Seventy consecutive patients with injuries of the thoracic and lumbar spine accompanied by neurological deficit were prospectively studied and follow-up. In 40 of these patients with a burst fracture, the degree of involvement of the cross-sectional area of the spinal canal, as revealed on first CT after admission, was not correlated with the type and degree of initial neurological deficit. In patients with injuries of the lumbar spine, neurological deficit may be mild, although the sagittal diameter of the spinal canal may be reduced by as much as 90%. We cannot establish a difference in neurological recovery between those cases who were managed conservatively and those in whom a surgical decompression and stabilization procedure was performed. Surgical stabilizing procedures, however, result in immediate stabilization of the spine, they diminish pain, facilitate nursing care and allow more rapid mobilization and earlier active rehabilitation. If major extraspinal injuries form a relative contra-indication to surgical decompression of the cord and stabilization of the spine injury, the patient can quite well be treated conservatively without endangering neurological recovery.