Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model.

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3-9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

[Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for the determination of paraquat and diquat in plasma and urine].

Objective: To establish a LC-MS/MS method for determination of paraquat and diquat in plasma and urine samples. Methods: Plasma is precipitated by acetonitrile then diluent with phosphate buffer (pH=7) , urine is diluent with phosphate buffer (pH=7) , then diluent samples extracted with Oasis WCX solid-phase extraction column. Samples were analyzed using LC-MS/MS in multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode. The analytical column was XBridge®BEH-HILIC (100 mm×2.1 mm×2.5 µm) and the mobile phase were 100 mmol ammonium formate add 0.5% formic acid and acetonitrile. Paraquat was quantified by internal standard method and diquat by external standard method. Results: The calibration curves of paraquat and diquat were linear in the concentration range of 10.0~120.0 µg/L, the correlation coefficient (r) were 0.9985~0.9994. The limit of detection of paraquat in plasma and urine were 1.98 µg/L and 1.00 µg/L, respectively, the recovery rate were 100.2%~107.3%, the RSD were 1.6%~3.3%. The limit of detection of diquat in plasma and urine were 1.80 µg/L and 2.77 µg/L, respectively, the recovery rate were 85.3%~93.1%, the RSD were 1.8%~5.5%. Conclusion: This method is sensitive and accurate, and can simultaneously determine paraquat and diquat in plasma and urine.

[Simultaneous determination of 12 rodenticides in whole blood and urine samples by high performance liquid chromatography-tandemmass spectrometry].

Objective: To develop a method for Simultaneous and rapid determination of 12 rodenticides including pindone, vacor, coumatetralyl, warfarin, diphacinone, coumachlor, chlorphacinon, difenacoum, brodifacoum, bromadiolone, difethialone and flocoumafen in whole blood and urine samples by high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass (LC-MS-MS) . Methods: The whole blood samples were precipitated with acetonitrile, purified by OstroTM 96-well plate, The urine samples were extracted by acetonitrile, and then separated on a ODS column, analyzed with high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) . The external standard calibration were tested. Results: A good linearity was observed in their respective concentration ranges of 12 rodenticides. The related coefficients were 0.993 0~0.999 8. The limit of detections were 0.05 µg/L~1.4 µg/L. The rates of recovery were 92.5%~118.0%. The relative standard deviations were between 0.8%~17.3%. Conclusion: The method was simple, rapid, sensitive, accurate and suitable for simultaneous detection of the 12 rodenticides in whole blood and urine samples of intoxicated patients.

Metallic phase in quantum Hall systems due to inter-Landau-band mixing.

The electronic eigenstates of a quantum Hall (QH) system are chiral states. Strong inter-Landau-band mixings among these states can occur when the bandwidth is comparable to the spacing of two adjacent Landau bands. We show that mixing of localized states with opposite chirality can delocalize electronic states. Based on numerical results, we propose the existence of a metallic phase between two adjacent QH phases and between a QH phase and the insulating phase. This result is consistent with nonscaling behaviors observed in recent experiments on a quantum Hall liquid-to-insulator transition.