Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Mild Cognitive Impairment in Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patient.

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this study are to explore the factors affecting mild cognitive impairment in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are not undergoing dialysis and to construct and validate a nomogram risk prediction model. METHODS: Using a convenience sampling method, 383 non-dialysis CKD patients from two tertiary hospitals in Chengdu were selected between February 2023 and August 2023 to form the modeling group. The patients were divided into a mild cognitive impairment group (n = 192) and a non-mild cognitive impairment group (n = 191), and factors such as demographics, disease data, and sleep disorders were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent influencing factors, followed by collinearity testing, and construction of the regression model. The final risk prediction model was presented through a nomogram and an online calculator, with internal validation using Bootstrap sampling. For external validation, 137 non-dialysis CKD patients from another tertiary hospital in Chengdu were selected between October 2023 and December 2023. RESULTS: In the modeling group, 192 (50.1%) of the non-dialysis CKD patients developed mild cognitive impairment, and in the validation group, 56 (40.9%) patients developed mild cognitive impairment, totaling 248 (47.7%) of all sampled non-dialysis CKD patients. Age, educational level, Occupation status, Use of smartphone, sleep disorders, hemoglobin, and platelet count were independent factors influencing the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment in non-dialysis CKD patients (all p < 0.05). The model evaluation showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.928, 95% CI (0.902, 0.953) in the modeling group, and 0.897, 95% CI (0.844, 0.950) in the validation group. The model's Youden index was 0.707, with an optimal cutoff value of 0.494, sensitivity of 0.853, and specificity of 0.854, indicating good predictive performance; calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and clinical decision curves indicated good calibration and clinical benefit. Internal validation results showed a consistency index (C-index) of 0.928, 95% CI (0.902, 0.953). CONCLUSION: The risk prediction model developed in this study shows excellent performance, demonstrating significant predictive potential for early screening of mild cognitive impairment in non-dialysis CKD patients. The application of this model will provide a reference for healthcare professionals, helping them formulate more targeted intervention strategies to optimize patient treatment and management outcomes.

External validation of the prediction model of intradialytic hypotension: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) is a common and serious complication in patients with Maintenance Hemodialysis (MHD). The purpose of this study is to externally verify three IDH risk prediction models recently developed by Ma et al. and recalibrate, update and present the optimal model to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model in clinical environment. METHODS: A multicenter prospective cohort study of patients from 11 hemodialysis centers in Sichuan Province, China, was conducted using convenience sampling from March 2022 to July 2022, with a follow-up period of 1 month. Model performance was assessed by: (1) Discrimination: Evaluated through the computation of the Area Under Curve (AUC) and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals. (2) Calibration: scrutinized through visual inspection of the calibration plot and utilization of the Brier score. (3) The incremental value of risk prediction and the utility of updating the model were gauged using NRI (Net Reclassification Improvement) and IDI (Integrated Discrimination Improvement). Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was employed to evaluate the clinical benefit of updating the model. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 2235 individuals undergoing maintenance hemodialysis, exhibiting a 14.6% occurrence rate of IDH. The externally validated Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for the three original prediction models were 0.746 (95% CI: 0.718 to 0.775), 0.709 (95% CI: 0.679 to 0.739), and 0.735 (95% CI: 0.706 to 0.764) respectively. Conversely, the AUC value for the recalibrated and updated columnar plot model reached 0.817 (95% CI: 0.791 to 0.842), accompanied by a Brier score of 0.081. Furthermore, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) exhibited a net benefit within the threshold probability range of 15.2% to 87.1%. CONCLUSION: Externally validated, recalibrated, updated, and presented IDH prediction models may serve as a valuable instrument for evaluating IDH risk in clinical practice. Furthermore, they hold the potential to guide clinical providers in discerning individuals at risk and facilitating judicious clinical intervention decisions.

A nomogram prediction model for mild cognitive impairment in non-dialysis outpatient patients with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The high prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in non-dialysis individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) impacts their prognosis and quality of life. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the variables associated with MCI in non-dialysis outpatient patients with CKD and to construct and verify a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: 416 participants selected from two hospitals in Chengdu, between January 2023 and June 2023. They were categorized into two groups: the MCI group (n = 210) and the non-MCI (n = 206). Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent influences (candidate predictor variables). Subsequently, regression models was constructed, and a nomogram was drawn. The restricted cubic spline diagram was drawn to further analyze the relationship between the continuous numerical variables and MCI. Internally validated using a bootstrap resampling procedure. RESULTS: Among 416 patients, 210 (50.9%) had MCI. Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, educational level, occupational status, use of smartphones, sleep disorder, and hemoglobin were independent influencing factors of MCI (all p<.05). The model's area under the curve was 0.926,95% CI (0.902, 0.951), which was a good discriminatory measure; the Calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the Clinical Decision Curve suggested that the model had good calibration and clinical benefit. Internal validation results showed the consistency index was 0.926, 95%CI (0.925, 0.927). CONCLUSION: The nomogram prediction model demonstrates good performance and can be used for early screening and prediction of MCI in non-dialysis patients with CKD. It provides valuable reference for medical staff to formulate corresponding intervention strategies.