Factors related to accurate clinicians' prediction of survival: an international multicenter study in East Asia.

PURPOSE: Recent guidelines for prognostic evaluation recommend clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) for survival prediction in patients with advanced cancer. However, CPS is often inaccurate and optimistic. Studies on factors associated with overestimation or underestimation of CPS are limited. We aimed to investigate the factors associated with the overestimation and underestimation of CPS in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study, which enrolled newly admitted patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment and performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the factors associated with "underestimation (less than 33% of actual survival)" and "overestimation (more than 33% of actual survival)." RESULTS: A total of 2571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.02; P < 0.01) and reduced oral intake (aOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P < 0.01) were identified as significant factors associated with underestimation. Dyspnea (aOR 1.28; 95% CI 1.06-1.54; P = 0.01) and hyperactive delirium (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05-1.72; P = 0.02) were identified as significant factors associated with overestimation. CONCLUSION: Older age was related to underestimation, while dyspnea and hyperactive delirium were related to overestimation of CPS for patients with weeks of survival. However, reduced oral intake was less likely to lead to underestimation.

Is spiritual well-being related to survival time of inpatients with advanced cancer? An East Asian cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: It has been suggested that psychosocial factors are related to survival time of inpatients with cancer. However, there are not many studies examining the relationship between spiritual well-being (SWB) and survival time among countries. This study investigated the relationship between SWB and survival time among three East Asian countries. METHODS: This international multicenter cohort study is a secondary analysis involving newly admitted inpatients with advanced cancer in palliative care units in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. SWB was measured using the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale (IPOS) at admission. We performed multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent prognostic factors. RESULTS: A total of 2,638 patients treated at 37 palliative care units from January 2017 to September 2018 were analyzed. The median survival time was 18.0 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.5-19.5) in Japan, 23.0 days (95% CI 19.9-26.1) in Korea, and 15.0 days (95% CI 13.0-17.0) in Taiwan. SWB was a significant factor correlated with survival in Taiwan (hazard ratio [HR] 1.27; 95% CI 1.01-1.59; p = 0.04), while it was insignificant in Japan (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.00-1.22; p = 0.06), and Korea (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.77-1.35; p = 0.89). SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: SWB on admission was associated with survival in patients with advanced cancer in Taiwan but not Japan or Korea. The findings suggest the possibility of a positive relationship between spiritual care and survival time in patients with far advanced cancer.

Prevalence and severity of symptoms and signs in patients with advanced cancer in the last days of life: the East Asian collaborative cross-cultural study to elucidate the dying process (EASED).

PURPOSE: Few large-scale studies have focused on the prevalence of symptoms and signs during the last days of patients diagnosed with advanced cancer. Identifying the patterns of specific symptoms according to cancer type is helpful to provide end-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer. We investigated the prevalence and severity of symptoms and signs associated with impending death in patients with advanced cancer. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of an international multicenter cohort study conducted in three East Asian countries, we compared the severity of symptoms and signs among dying patients in the last 3 days of life according to the type of primary cancer using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Post hoc analysis was conducted for multiple comparisons of each symptom according to the type of primary cancer. RESULTS: We analyzed 2131 patients from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The prevalence of most symptoms and signs were relatively stable from 1 week after admission to the last 3 days of life. According to cancer type, edema of the lower extremities was the most common symptom and fatigue/ ascites were the most severe symptoms in digestive tract cancer. For lung cancer, respiratory secretion was the most prevalent and dyspnea/respiratory secretion were the most severe symptoms. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the prevalence and severity of symptoms and signs associated with the impending death of patients with advanced cancer in East Asia. Our study can enable clinicians to recognize the specific symptoms and signs at the very end of life.

Comparison of the accuracy of clinicians' prediction of survival and Palliative Prognostic Score: an East Asian cross-cultural study.

PURPOSE: No study has been conducted to compare the clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) with Palliative Prognostic Scores (PaP) across countries. We aimed to compare the performance of the CPS in PaP (PaP-CPS), the PaP without the CPS, and the PaP total scores in patients with advanced cancer in three East Asian countries. METHODS: We compared the discriminative accuracy of the three predictive models (the PaP-CPS [the score of the categorical CPS of PaP], the PaP without the CPS [sum of the scores of only the objective variables of PaP], and the PaP total score) in patients admitted to palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for 30-day survival to compare the discriminative accuracy of these three models. RESULTS: We analyzed 2,072 patients from three countries. The AUROC for the PaP total scores was 0.84 in patients in Japan, 0.76 in Korea, and 0.79 in Taiwan. The AUROC of the PaP-CPS was 0.82 in patients in Japan, 0.75 in Korea, and 0.78 in Taiwan. The AUROC of the PaP without the CPS was 0.75 in patients in Japan, 0.66 in Korea, and 0.67 in Taiwan. CONCLUSION: The PaP total scores and the PaP-CPS consistently showed similar discriminative accuracy in predicting 30-day survival in patients admitted to PCUs in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. It may be sufficient for experienced clinicians to use the CPS alone for estimating the short-term survival (less than one month) of patients with far-advanced cancer. The PaP may help to improve prognostic confidence and further reduce subjective variations.

"The surprise questions" using variable time frames in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Several studies supported the usefulness of "the surprise question" in terms of 1-year mortality of patients. "The surprise question" requires a "Yes" or "No" answer to the question "Would I be surprised if this patient died in [specific time frame]." However, the 1-year time frame is often too long for advanced cancer patients seen by palliative care personnel. "The surprise question" with shorter time frames is needed for decision making. We examined the accuracy of "the surprise question" for 7-day, 21-day, and 42-day survival in hospitalized patients admitted to palliative care units (PCUs). METHOD: This was a prospective multicenter cohort study of 130 adult patients with advanced cancer admitted to 7 hospital-based PCUs in South Korea. The accuracy of "the surprise question" was compared with that of the temporal question for clinician's prediction of survival. RESULTS: We analyzed 130 inpatients who died in PCUs during the study period. The median survival was 21.0 days. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day "the surprise question" were 46.7, 88.7, and 83.9%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for the 7-day temporal question were 6.7, 98.3, and 87.7%, respectively. The c-indices of the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7-day temporal question were 0.662 (95% CI: 0.539-0.785) and 0.521 (95% CI: 0.464-0.579), respectively. The c-indices of the 42-day "the surprise question" and 42-day temporal question were 0.554 (95% CI: 0.509-0.599) and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.569-0.663), respectively. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Surprisingly, "the surprise questions" and temporal questions had similar accuracies. The high specificities for the 7-day "the surprise question" and 7- and 21-day temporal question suggest they may be useful to rule in death if positive.

Comparison of Objective Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score performance in inpatients with advanced cancer in Japan and Korea.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate prognostication is important for patients and their families to prepare for the end of life. Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) is an easy-to-use tool that does not require the clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS), whereas Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) needs CPS. Thus, inexperienced clinicians may hesitate to use PaP. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of OPS compared with PaP in inpatients in palliative care units (PCUs) in three East Asian countries. METHOD: This study was a secondary analysis of a cross-cultural, multicenter cohort study. We enrolled inpatients with far-advanced cancer in PCUs in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve to compare the accuracy of OPS and PaP. RESULTS: A total of 1,628 inpatients in 33 PCUs in Japan and Korea were analyzed. OPS and PaP were calculated in 71.7% of the Japanese patients and 80.0% of the Korean patients. In Taiwan, PaP was calculated for 81.6% of the patients. The AUROC for 3-week survival was 0.74 for OPS in Japan, 0.68 for OPS in Korea, 0.80 for PaP in Japan, and 0.73 for PaP in Korea. The AUROC for 30-day survival was 0.70 for OPS in Japan, 0.71 for OPS in Korea, 0.79 for PaP in Japan, and 0.74 for PaP in Korea. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Both OPS and PaP showed good performance in Japan and Korea. Compared with PaP, OPS could be more useful for inexperienced physicians who hesitate to estimate CPS.

Factors related to spiritual well-being in the last days of life in three East Asian countries: An international multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Some factors associated with spiritual well-being in dying patients have previously been reported. However, there has been no cross-cultural study comparing factors related to spiritual well-being. The current investigation may shed light on this under-investigated area through a comparison of diverse factors. AIM: We aimed to (1) examine factors associated with spiritual well-being in the last days and (2) compare those factors across three East Asian countries. DESIGN: This is an international multicenter prospective cohort study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Newly admitted inpatients with far advanced cancer in palliative care units in Japan, Korea and Taiwan were enrolled. Each patient was classified into one of two groups based on spiritual well-being score in the last days of life. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors related to better spiritual well-being score in each country. RESULTS: A total of 1761 patients treated at 37 palliative care units from January 2017 to September 2018 were analyzed. Seven variables were significant in Japan, three in Korea, and five in Taiwan. "Good death scale [acceptance]," "fatigue" and "expressed wish for hastened death" were unique in Japan. "Visit from a pastoral care worker within 48 h of death" was unique in Korea. "Patient's preferences for place of death," "dyspnea" and "continuous deep sedation" were unique in Taiwan. CONCLUSIONS: This study found novel factors related to spiritual well-being in the last days of life, several of which differed according to country. Recognition of factors associated with spiritual well-being can improve the quality of palliative care.

The protective effect of alcohol consumption on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases: is it real? A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies conducted in community settings.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and CVD incidence, conducting a meta-analysis of studies focusing on residents from local communities. Further, we examined whether light to moderate alcohol consumption had a protective effect on CVD incidence through a sub-group analysis. METHODS: This study conducted a meta-analysis of the relationship between alcohol consumption and CVD incidence, selecting journals published up to December 2017. The alcohol consumption level was classified into non-consumers, light (0.01-10.0 g/day), light to moderate (10.1-20.0 g/day), moderate (20.1-40.0 g/day), moderate to high (40.1-60.0 g/day), and high (> 60.0 g/day) groups. The sub-group analysis was conducted according to the number of comorbidities and age. RESULTS: Seven articles were selected in total for the meta-analysis. The mean Newcastle-Ottawa scale score was 8.14 points, suggesting studies were of high quality. There was a J-shaped dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption level and CVD incidence only in men. In general, light to moderate and moderate consumption lowered CVD incidence (Relative risk (RR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 0.68 [0.57-0.81] and 0.72 [0.58-0.90], respectively). In men with 3-4 comorbidities, there were no protective effects of light to moderate and moderate consumption on CVD incidence. In either groups of only men or men and women there were protective effects of light to moderate and moderate consumption on CVD incidence only in those aged between 41 and 65. DISCUSSION: We found that light to moderate and moderate alcohol consumption had a protective effect on CVD incidence, there was no protective effect either in those with at least three comorbidities or people aged 40 or younger. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that not all local community residents experience a protective effect of light to moderate consumption on CVD incidence. As such, it is necessary to recommend a moderate amount of drinking or less for each individual.

Is spirituality related to survival in advanced cancer inpatients in Korea?

OBJECTIVE: Spirituality is what gives people meaning and purpose in life, and it has been recognized as a critical factor in patients' well-being, particularly at the ends of their lives. Studies have demonstrated relationships between spirituality and patient-reported outcomes such as quality of life and mental health. Although a number of studies have suggested that spiritual belief can be associated with mortality, the results are inconsistent. We aimed to determine whether spirituality was related to survival in advanced cancer inpatients in Korea. METHOD: For this multicenter study, we recruited adult advanced cancer inpatients who had been admitted to seven palliative care units with estimated survival of <3 months. We measured spirituality at admission using the Korean version of the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-Being (FACIT-sp), which comprises two subscales: meaning/peace and faith. We calculated a Kaplan-Meier curve for spirituality, dichotomized at the predefined cutoffs and medians for the total scale and each of the two subscales, and performed univariate regression with a Cox proportional hazard model.ResultWe enrolled a total of 204 adults (mean age: 64.5 ± 13.0; 48.5% female) in the study. The most common primary cancer diagnoses were lung (21.6%), colorectal (18.6%), and liver/biliary tract (13.0%). Median survival was 19.5 days (95% confidence interval [CI95%]: 23.5, 30.6). Total FACIT-sp score was not related to survival time (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.981, CI95% = 0.957, 1.007), and neither were the scores for its two subscales, meaning/peace (HR = 0.969, CI95% = 0.932, 1.008) and faith (HR = 0.981, CI95% = 0.938, 1.026).Significance of resultsSpirituality was not related to survival in advanced cancer inpatients in Korea. Plausible mechanisms merit further investigation.

Hypertension associated with alcohol consumption based on the facial flushing reaction to drinking.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a risk factor for hypertension. Facial flushing after drinking is a typical symptom of high alcohol sensitivity. This study assessed the role of the facial flushing response in the relationship between alcohol consumption and hypertension. METHODS: The subjects were 1,763 men (288 nondrinkers, 527 flushing drinkers, 948 nonflushing drinkers) who had received a health checkup. Data were collected from the subjects' medical records. The risk of hypertension related to weekly drinking amount in nonflushers and flushers was analyzed and compared with that in nondrinkers. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, body mass index, exercise status, and smoking status, the risk of hypertension was significantly increased when flushers consumed more than 4 drinks per week (more than 4 and up to 8 drinks: odds ratio [OR] = 2.23; above 8 drinks: OR = 2.35). In contrast, in nonflushers, the risk was increased with alcohol consumption of more than 8 drinks (OR = 1.61) per week. The OR (flushers/nonflushers) for hypertension was also increased: more than 4 and up to 8 drinks, 2.27 and above 8 drinks, 1.52. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that hypertension associated with alcohol consumption has a lower threshold value and higher risk in flushers than in nonflushers. Clinicians should consider evaluating patients' flushing response as well as drinking amount in a daily practice for health promotion.

Modifiable factors associated with caregiver burden among family caregivers of terminally ill Korean cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Higher caregiver burden is associated with poor quality of life among family caregivers. However, in Korea, very few studies have examined factors associated with caregiver burden. The present study investigated factors associated with caregiver burden among family caregivers of terminally ill Korean cancer patients, particularly modifiable factors as a potential target of intervention strategies. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using self-administered questionnaires was performed. Sixty-four family caregivers of terminally ill cancer patients who were admitted to the hospice-palliative care unit of a university hospital in South Korea were included. To identify caregiver burden, the Caregiver Reaction Assessment scale (CRA) was used in this study. Time spent in providing care per day, number of visits per week from other family members, family functioning, and a positive subscale, self-esteem, of the CRA were deemed as modifiable factors. Other sociodemographic, caregiving characteristics of the subjects were non-modifiable factors. RESULTS: Longer time spent providing care per day, fewer weekly visits from other family members, poor family functioning, and low self-esteem were considered as modifiable factors associated with caregiver burden. Low monthly income and the spouse being the family caregiver were non-modifiable factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our study has practical significance in that it identifies modifiable factors that can be used to devise intervention strategies. Developing and applying such intervention strategies for alleviating the factors associated with high caregiver burden could be important for improving the quality of life of both patients and their families.

Comparison of Simplified Palliative Prognostic Index and Palliative Performance Scale in Patients with Advanced Cancer in a Home Palliative Care Setting.

Objective: The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) has been reported to be as accurate as Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI). PPS is a component of the simplified PPI (sPPI). It is unknown whether PPS is as accurate as sPPI. This study aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the PPS and sPPI in patients with advanced cancer in a home palliative care setting in South Korea. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study that included Korean patients with advanced cancer who received home-based palliative care. We used the medical records maintained by specialized palliative care nurses. We computed the prognostic performance of PPS and sPPI using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plots for the 3- and 6-week survival. Results: A total of 80 patients were included, with a median overall survival of 47.0 days. The AUROCs of PPS were 0.71 and 0.69 at the 3- and 6-week survival predictions, respectively. The AUROCs of sPPI were 0.87 and 0.73 at the 3- and 6-week survival predictions, respectively. The calibration plot demonstrated satisfactory agreement across all score ranges for both the PPS and sPPI. Conclusions: This study showed that the sPPI assessed by nurses was more accurate than the PPS in a home palliative care setting in predicting the 3-week survival in patients with advanced cancer. The PPS can be used for a quick assessment.

Are Surprise Questions and Probabilistic Questions by Nurses Useful in Home Palliative Care? A Prospective Study.

Background: Surprise questions (SQs) are used as screening tools in palliative care. Probabilistic questions (PQs) are more accurate than temporal predictions. However, no study has examined the usefulness of SQs and PQs assessed by nurses. Objectives: To examine the accuracy of nurses' SQ and PQ assessments in patients with advanced cancer receiving home palliative care. Design: A prospective single-center cohort study. Setting/Subjects: Adult patients with advanced cancer who received palliative care at home in South Korea between 2019 and 2020. Measurements: Palliative care specialized nurses were asked the SQ, "Would you be surprised if the patient died in a specific timeframe?" and PQ, "What is the probability that this patient will be alive (0 to 100%) within a specific timeframe?" at the 1-, 2-, 4-, and 6-week timeframes at enrollment. We calculated the sensitivities and specificities of the SQs and PQs. Results: 81 patients were recruited with 47 days of median survival. The sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy (OA) of the 1-week SQ were 50.0, 93.2, and 88.9%, respectively. The accuracies for the 1-week PQ were 12.5, 100.0, and 91.3%, respectively. The 6-week SQ showed sensitivity, specificity, and OA of 84.6, 42.9, and 62.9%, respectively; the accuracies for the 6-week PQ were 59.0, 66.7, and 63.0%, respectively.Conclusion: The SQ and PQ showed acceptable accuracy in home palliative care patients. Interestingly, PQ showed higher specificity than SQ at all timeframes. The SQ and PQ assessed by nurses may be useful in providing additional prognostic information for home palliative care.

How different are accuracies of clinicians' prediction of survival by assessment methods?

BACKGROUND: No standardized method has been established for evaluating the accuracy of a clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS). Till now, no study has compared the accuracy of CPS according to the evaluation methods using the same dataset. We aimed to examine the accuracy of CPS by different statistical approaches in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study. Newly admitted patients with advanced cancer were enrolled in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment. The patients were classified into groups of days (≤7 days) and weeks (≤30 days) based on CPS and actual survival (AS). We evaluated the accuracy of CPS by the distribution, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs), and an estimate ±33% of AS. RESULTS: A total of 2,571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. As for the "days" category, the distribution of AS is larger than that of CPS, however, the results are reversed in the "weeks" category. The AUROCs showed over 80% discrimination for both the "days" and "weeks" categories. Accurate CPS within ±33% of AS was approximately 30% in both "days" and "weeks" categories. CONCLUSIONS: We showed a discrepancy of approximately 30-80% in the accuracy of CPS among three different analysis methods: distribution, AUROC, and AS comparison. Considering the low accuracy of AS comparisons, clinicians should provide a wide range of survival time. CPS was able to effectively discriminate and may be useful for risk stratification.

Non-linear relationship between body mass index and self-rated health in older Korean adults: body image and sex considerations.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and self-rated health (SRH) in older adults aged over 65 years while examining the influence of self-perceived body image (SBI) and sex. METHODS: Raw data were obtained from the Korea Community Health Survey, which included BMI measurements of Koreans aged over 65 years (n=59,628). Non-linear relationships between BMI and SRH were analyzed separately for each sex using restricted cubic splines while controlling for SBI and other confounding variables. RESULTS: Men showed a reverse J-shaped association, while women showed a J-shaped association between BMI and poor SRH. However, including SBI in the model changed this association for men to an inverted U-shape showing a negative direction, with the highest risk of poor SRH observed in the underweight to overweight range. For women, a nearly linear positive relationship was observed. Regardless of BMI, those who perceived their weight as not "exactly the right weight" had a higher risk of poor SRH than those who perceived their weight as "exactly the right weight" in both men and women. Older men who thought they were much too fat or too thin had similar highest risks of poor SRH, whereas older women who thought they were too thin had the highest risk of poor SRH. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study emphasize the importance of considering sex and body image perceptions when assessing the relationship between BMI and SRH in older adults, especially in men.

Evaluation of effectiveness and improvement factors of occupational health and safety management system in the Republic of Korea Navy based on AHP-entropy and IPA.

The Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) has applied Occupational Health and Safety Management System (OHSMS), but the effectiveness of OHSMS is being questioned due to continuous industrial accidents that continue to occur. Although OHSMS, which has been generally applied in enterprises, has more potential for improper implementation in the military, there are few studies on OHSMS in the military. Therefore, this study verified the effectiveness of OHSMS in the ROKN and derived improvement factors. This study was conducted in a two-step process. First, we surveyed 629 workers at the ROKN workplaces to confirm the effectiveness of OHSMS by comparing occupational health and safety (OHS) efforts according to whether OHSMS was applied and the period of application. Second, 29 naval OHSMS experts evaluated the factors for improving OHSMS using two decision-making tools: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-entropy and Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA). The study results indicate that the OHS efforts of OHSMS-applied workplaces were similar to that of unapplied. Also, no better OHS efforts were identified in workplaces with more extended OHSMS application periods. There were five improvement factors of OHSMS applied to the ROKN workplaces, with the highest weight in the following order: consultation and participation of workers; resources; competence; hazard identification and risk assessment; and organizational roles, responsibilities, and authorities. The effectiveness of OHSMS in the ROKN was insufficient. Therefore, the ROKN needs focused improvement efforts on the five requirements to implement OHSMS practically. These results can be helpful information for the ROKN to apply OHSMS more effectively for industrial safety.

Clinicians' Prediction of Survival and Prognostic Confidence in Patients with Advanced Cancer in Three East Asian Countries.

Background: Little is known about accuracy and confidence of clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) in East-Asian countries. Objective: We aimed to examine accuracy of CPS for 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival in palliative inpatients and its association with prognostic confidence. Design: An international prospective cohort study in Japan (JP), Korea (KR), and Taiwan (TW). Setting/Subjects: Subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer admitted to 37 palliative care units in three countries. Measurements: Discrimination of CPS was investigated through sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) according to 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival. The accuracies of CPS were compared with those of Performance Status-based Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI). Clinicians were instructed to rate confidence level on a 0-10-point scale. Results: A total of 2571 patients were analyzed. The specificity was highest at 93.2-100.0% for the 7-day CPS, and sensitivity was highest at 71.5-86.8% for the 42-day CPS. The AUROCs of the seven-day CPS were 0.88, 0.94, and 0.89, while those of PS-PPI were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.69 for JP, KR, and TW, respectively. As for 42-day prediction, sensitivities of PS-PPI were higher than those of CPS. Clinicians' confidence was strongly associated with the accuracy of prediction in all three countries (all p-values <0.01). Conclusions: CPS accuracies were highest (0.88-0.94) for the seven-day survival prediction. CPS was more accurate than PS-PPI in all timeframe prediction except 42-day prediction in KR. Prognostic confidence was significantly associated with the accuracy of CPS.

Validation of Modified Models of Objective Prognostic Score in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

Background: The objective prognostic score (OPS) needs to be modified to reflect practical palliative care circumstances. Objectives: We aimed to validate modified models of OPS with few or no laboratory tests for patients with advanced cancer. Design: An observational study was performed. Setting/Subjects: A secondary analysis of an international, multicenter cohort study of patients in East Asia was performed. The subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer in the palliative care unit. Measurements: We developed two modified OPS (mOPS) models to predict two-week survival: mOPS-A consisted of two symptoms, two objective signs, and three laboratory results, while mOPS-B consisted of three symptoms, two signs, and no laboratory data. We compared the accuracy of the prognostic models using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Calibration plots for two-week survival and net reclassification indices (NRIs) were compared for the two models. Survival differences between higher and lower score groups of each model were identified by the log-rank test. Results: We included a total of 1796 subjects having median survival of 19.0 days. We found that mOPS-A had higher specificity (0.805-0.836) and higher AUROCs (0.791-0.797). In contrast, mOPS-B showed higher sensitivity (0.721-0.725) and acceptable AUROCs (0.740-0.751) for prediction of two-week survival. Two mOPSs showed good concordance in calibration plots. Considering NRIs, replacing the original OPS with mOPSs improved overall reclassification (absolute NRI: 0.47-4.15%). Higher score groups of mOPS-A and mOPS-B showed poorer survival than those of lower score groups (p < 0.001). Conclusions: mOPSs used reduced laboratory data and had relatively good accuracy for predicting survival in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative care.

Relationship between Alcohol Consumption and Testosterone Deficiency according to Facial Flushes among Middle-Aged and Older Korean Men.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the relationship between alcohol consumption and total testosterone deficiency based on facial flushing among Korean men. METHODS: A total of 314 men were included in this study and divided into non-drinkers (n=78) and drinkers (n=236). Drinkers were also divided into flushers (n=96) and non-flushers (n=140). Flushers and non-flushers were separated into two groups based on the amount of alcohol consumed: moderate drinkers (≤8 standard drinks per week) and heavy drinkers (>8 standard drinks per week). Total testosterone <3.5 ng/mL was defined as testosterone deficiency. RESULTS: The risk of testosterone deficiency was significantly higher in heavy drinkers who flushed than in nondrinkers (odds ratio, 4.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-15.88; P=0.025). However, no significant difference was observed in the risk of testosterone deficiency in non-flushers, regardless of the amount of alcohol consumed. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the risk of testosterone deficiency increases in heavy drinkers (>8 drinks per week) who flush compared to that in non-drinkers.

Performance of clinician prediction of survival in oncology outpatients with advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the performance of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) and the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence of clinicians in ambulatory medical oncology outpatients. METHODS: Eight medical oncologists estimated the expected survival of their patients in a prospective cohort study. They were asked to provide a temporal type of CPS in weeks, together with their level of confidence for each prediction (0-100%). We analyzed the accuracy of CPS, the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence, and the characteristics of patients showing inaccurate CPS. RESULTS: A total of 200 advanced cancer patients were enrolled and the median overall survival was 7.6 months. CPS was accurate in 67 (33.5%) patients, underestimated in 87 (43.5%), and overestimated in 46 (23.0%). The overall accuracy of CPS for 12-week, 24-week, 36-week, and 48-week survival was 83.0%, 72.0%, 75.5%, and 74.0%, respectively. The specificity was highest for 12-week survival (90.2%) and the sensitivity was highest for 48-week survival (96.1%). The sensitivity of 12-week CPS was 51.4% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.87). The prognostic confidence of clinicians was not significantly associated with the accuracy of prediction (P = 0.359). Patients with overestimated survival had significantly poorer global health status and physical/role/emotional functioning in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Additionally, they showed significantly higher levels of fatigue, nausea/vomiting, pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite. CONCLUSION: The overall accuracy of CPS in predicting 12-week to 48-week survival was high in medical oncology outpatients. However the sensitivity of 12-week CPS was low and prognostic confidence was not associated with the accuracy of CPS. Patients with overestimated CPS showed poorer quality of life and higher symptom burden.