Health and development from preconception to 20 years of age and human capital.

Optimal health and development from preconception to adulthood are crucial for human flourishing and the formation of human capital. The Nurturing Care Framework, as adapted to age 20 years, conceptualises the major influences during periods of development from preconception, through pregnancy, childhood, and adolescence that affect human capital. In addition to mortality in children younger than 5 years, stillbirths and deaths in 5-19-year-olds are important to consider. The global rate of mortality in individuals younger than 20 years has declined substantially since 2000, yet in 2019 an estimated 8·6 million deaths occurred between 28 weeks of gestation and 20 years of age, with more than half of deaths, including stillbirths, occurring before 28 days of age. The 1000 days from conception to 2 years of age are especially influential for human capital. The prevalence of low birthweight is high in sub-Saharan Africa and even higher in south Asia. Growth faltering, especially from birth to 2 years, occurs in most world regions, whereas overweight increases in many regions from the preprimary school period through adolescence. Analyses of cohort data show that growth trajectories in early years of life are strong determinants of nutritional outcomes in adulthood. The accrual of knowledge and skills is affected by health, nutrition, and home resources in early childhood and by educational opportunities in older children and adolescents. Linear growth in the first 2 years of life better predicts intelligence quotients in adults than increases in height in older children and adolescents. Learning-adjusted years of schooling range from about 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa to about 11 years in high-income countries. Human capital depends on children and adolescents surviving, thriving, and learning until adulthood.

Global, regional, and national estimates and trends in stillbirths from 2000 to 2019: a systematic assessment.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time. METHODS: For a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate country-specific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 2·0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·9-2·2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13·9 stillbirths (90% UI 13·5-15·4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22·8 stillbirths (19·8-27·7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2·9 (2·7-3·0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2·3% (90% UI 1·7-2·7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2·9% (2·5-3·2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4·3% (3·8-4·7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50·0%, 28 having a decrease of 25·0-49·9%, 50 having a decrease of 10·0-24·9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10·0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: Progress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Stillbirths: rates, risk factors, and acceleration towards 2030.

An estimated 2.6 million third trimester stillbirths occurred in 2015 (uncertainty range 2.4-3.0 million). The number of stillbirths has reduced more slowly than has maternal mortality or mortality in children younger than 5 years, which were explicitly targeted in the Millennium Development Goals. The Every Newborn Action Plan has the target of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births in every country by 2030. 94 mainly high-income countries and upper middle-income countries have already met this target, although with noticeable disparities. At least 56 countries, particularly in Africa and in areas affected by conflict, will have to more than double present progress to reach this target. Most (98%) stillbirths are in low-income and middle-income countries. Improved care at birth is essential to prevent 1.3 million (uncertainty range 1.2-1.6 million) intrapartum stillbirths, end preventable maternal and neonatal deaths, and improve child development. Estimates for stillbirth causation are impeded by various classification systems, but for 18 countries with reliable data, congenital abnormalities account for a median of only 7.4% of stillbirths. Many disorders associated with stillbirths are potentially modifiable and often coexist, such as maternal infections (population attributable fraction: malaria 8.0% and syphilis 7.7%), non-communicable diseases, nutrition and lifestyle factors (each about 10%), and maternal age older than 35 years (6.7%). Prolonged pregnancies contribute to 14.0% of stillbirths. Causal pathways for stillbirth frequently involve impaired placental function, either with fetal growth restriction or preterm labour, or both. Two-thirds of newborns have their births registered. However, less than 5% of neonatal deaths and even fewer stillbirths have death registration. Records and registrations of all births, stillbirths, neonatal, and maternal deaths in a health facility would substantially increase data availability. Improved data alone will not save lives but provide a way to target interventions to reach more than 7000 women every day worldwide who experience the reality of stillbirth.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

BACKGROUND: In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030. METHODS: We updated the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database with 5700 country-year datapoints. As of July, 2015, the database contains about 17 000 country-year datapoints for mortality of children younger than 5 years for 195 countries, and includes all available nationally-representative data from vital registration systems, population censuses, household surveys, and sample registration systems. We used these data to generate estimates, with uncertainty intervals, of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3 model). This model includes a data model to adjust for systematic biases associated with different types of data sources. To provide insights into the global and regional burden of under-5 deaths associated with post-2015 targets, we constructed five scenario-based projections for under-5 mortality from 2016 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality rates up to 2030 for each scenario. RESULTS: The global under-5 mortality rate has fallen from 90·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (90% uncertainty interval 89·3-92·2) in 1990 to 42·5 (40·9-45·6) in 2015. During the same period, the annual number of under-5 deaths worldwide dropped from 12·7 million (12·6 million-13·0 million) to 5·9 million (5·7 million-6·4 million). The global under-5 mortality rate reduced by 53% (50-55%) in the past 25 years and therefore missed the MDG 4 target. Based on point estimates, two regions-east Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean-achieved the MDG 4 target. 62 countries achieved the MDG 4 target, of which 24 were low-income and lower-middle income countries. Between 2016 and 2030, 94·4 million children are projected to die before the age of 5 years if the 2015 mortality rate remains constant in each country, and 68·8 million would die if each country continues to reduce its mortality rate at the pace estimated from 2000 to 2015. If all countries achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of an under-5 mortality rate of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030, we project 56·0 million deaths by 2030. About two-thirds of all sub-Saharan African countries need to accelerate progress to achieve this target. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in reducing child mortality, concerted efforts remain necessary to avoid preventable under-5 deaths in the coming years and to accelerate progress in improving child survival further. Urgent actions are needed most in the regions and countries with high under-5 mortality rates, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. FUNDING: None.

Every Newborn: progress, priorities, and potential beyond survival.

In this Series paper, we review trends since the 2005 Lancet Series on Neonatal Survival to inform acceleration of progress for newborn health post-2015. On the basis of multicountry analyses and multi-stakeholder consultations, we propose national targets for 2035 of no more than 10 stillbirths per 1000 total births, and no more than 10 neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths, compatible with the under-5 mortality targets of no more than 20 per 1000 livebirths. We also give targets for 2030. Reduction of neonatal mortality has been slower than that for maternal and child (1-59 months) mortality, slowest in the highest burden countries, especially in Africa, and reduction is even slower for stillbirth rates. Birth is the time of highest risk, when more than 40% of maternal deaths (total about 290,000) and stillbirths or neonatal deaths (5·5 million) occur every year. These deaths happen rapidly, needing a rapid response by health-care workers. The 2·9 million annual neonatal deaths worldwide are attributable to three main causes: infections (0·6 million), intrapartum conditions (0·7 million), and preterm birth complications (1·0 million). Boys have a higher biological risk of neonatal death, but girls often have a higher social risk. Small size at birth--due to preterm birth or small-for-gestational-age (SGA), or both--is the biggest risk factor for more than 80% of neonatal deaths and increases risk of post-neonatal mortality, growth failure, and adult-onset non-communicable diseases. South Asia has the highest SGA rates and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest preterm birth rates. Babies who are term SGA low birthweight (10·4 million in these regions) are at risk of stunting and adult-onset metabolic conditions. 15 million preterm births, especially of those younger than 32 weeks' gestation, are at the highest risk of neonatal death, with ongoing post-neonatal mortality risk, and important risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment, stunting, and non-communicable conditions. 4 million neonates annually have other life-threatening or disabling conditions including intrapartum-related brain injury, severe bacterial infections, or pathological jaundice. Half of the world's newborn babies do not get a birth certificate, and most neonatal deaths and almost all stillbirths have no death certificate. To count deaths is crucial to change them. Failure to improve birth outcomes by 2035 will result in an estimated 116 million deaths, 99 million survivors with disability or lost development potential, and millions of adults at increased risk of non-communicable diseases after low birthweight. In the post-2015 era, improvements in child survival, development, and human capital depend on ensuring a healthy start for every newborn baby--the citizens and workforce of the future.

UNICEF report Generation 2030 Africa calls upon investing in and empowering girls and young women.

UNICEF's Generation 2030 Africa report released in August 2014, focusing exclusively on Africa, provides an in-depth analysis of child demographic trends. The report highlights the marked increase that Africa population has experienced in the last few decades and the rapid population expansion that is set to continue, with its inhabitants doubling from 1.2 billion to 2.4 billion between 2015 and 2050. A factor driving Africa's population increase is that the number of women of reproductive age has risen fivefold from 54 million in 1950 to 280 million in 2015 and is set to further increase to 407 million in 2030 and 607 million by 2050. The increasing number of women of reproductive age in Africa will lead to an increasing number of births in Africa even under the assumption of large declines in fertility levels. Adolescent fertility remains high in many African countries and it is estimated that almost one fifth of women in Africa have an unmet need for family planning. The report calls upon investing in and empowering girls and young women and on improving reproductive health of African adolescents.

UNICEF Report: enormous progress in child survival but greater focus on newborns urgently needed.

The world has made enormous progress in improving child survival since 1990, reducing the under-five mortality rate by nearly half from 90 to 46 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013. Currently, the global under-five mortality rate is falling faster than at any other time over the past two decades. Yet, progress is insufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) which calls for reducing the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. If current trends continue in all countries, the world will not meet the target until 2026, 11 years behind schedule. To accelerate progress in child survival, focusing on the newborn is critical since the share of all under-five deaths occurring in the neonatal period (the first 28 days of life) is increasing. Globally, 44 per cent of the 6.3 million under-five deaths occurred in the neonatal period in 2013. Many of these deaths are easily preventable with simple, cost-effective interventions administered before, during and immediately after birth. However, UNICEF's analysis reveals a remarkably high degree of variability in the utilization and quality of services provided to pregnant women and their babies. Furthermore, quality care is grossly lacking even for babies and mothers in contact with the health system. The latest levels and trends in child mortality as well as the coverage and quality of key maternal and newborn care from pregnancy through childbirth and the postnatal period are the subject of the new UNICEF report Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed Progress Report 2014 released recently in September.

Changes in stillbirths and child and youth mortality in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021. METHODS: Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group. RESULTS: Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels. CONCLUSION: Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Child survival: a message of hope but a call for renewed commitment in UNICEF report.

A recent UNICEF report Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed Progress Report 2013 presents a comprehensive analysis of levels and trends in child mortality and progress towards MDG 4. The global under-five mortality rate has been cut nearly in half (47%) since 1990. However, during this same period, 216 million children are estimated to have died before their fifth birthday. Most of these deaths were from leading infectious diseases such as pneumonia, diarrhoea or malaria, or were caused by preventable neonatal causes such as those related to intra-partum complications. The highest mortality rates in the world are observed in low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa faces a particular challenge in that it not only has the highest under-five mortality in the world but it also has the fastest population growth. Progress is possible, however, and sharp reductions in child mortality have been observed at all levels of national income and in all regions. Some of the world's poorest countries in terms of national income have made the strongest gains in child survival. Within countries, new analysis suggests that disparities in under-five mortality between the richest and the poorest households have declined in most regions of the world, with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, under-five mortality rates have fallen even among the poorest households in all regions. The report highlights the growing importance of neonatal deaths; roughly 44% of global under-five deaths - now 2.9 million a year - occur during the neonatal period, with up to 50% dying during their first day of life and yet over two-thirds of these deaths are preventable without intensive care. The report stresses how a continuum of care approach across the whole life cycle is the most powerful way of understanding and accelerating further progress.

Sex differences in mortality among children, adolescents, and young people aged 0-24 years: a systematic assessment of national, regional, and global trends from 1990 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Differences in mortality exist between sexes because of biological, genetic, and social factors. Sex differentials are well documented in children younger than 5 years but have not been systematically examined for ages 5-24 years. We aimed to estimate the sex ratio of mortality from birth to age 24 years and reconstruct trends in sex-specific mortality between 1990 and 2021 for 200 countries, major regions, and the world. METHODS: We compiled comprehensive databases on the mortality sex ratio (ratio of male to female mortality rates) for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-14 years, and 15-24 years. The databases contain mortality rates from death registration systems, full birth and sibling histories from surveys, and reports on household deaths in censuses. We modelled the sex ratio of age-specific mortality as a function of the mortality in both sexes using Bayesian hierarchical time-series models. We report the levels and trends of sex ratios and estimate the expected female mortality and excess female mortality rates (the difference between the estimated female mortality and the expected female mortality) to identify countries with outlying sex ratios. FINDINGS: Globally, the mortality sex ratio was 1·13 (ie, boys were more likely to die than girls of the same age) for ages 0-4 years (90% uncertainty interval 1·11 to 1·15) in 2021. This ratio increased with age to 1·16 (1·12 to 1·20) for 5-14 years, reaching 1·65 for 15-24 years (1·52 to 1·75). In all age groups, the global sex ratio of mortality increased between 1990 and 2021, driven by faster declines in female mortality. In 2021, the probability of a newborn male reaching age 25 years was 94·1% (93·7 to 94·4), compared with 95·1% for a newborn female (94·7 to 95·3). We found a disadvantage of females versus males (compared with countries with similar total mortality) in 2021 in five countries for ages 0-4 years (Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, India, and Iran), one country (Suriname) for ages 5-14 years, and 13 countries for ages 15-24 years (including Bangladesh and India). We found the reverse pattern (disadvantage of males vs females compared with countries of similar total mortality) in one country in ages 0-4 years (Vietnam) and eight countries in ages 15-24 years (including Brazil and Mexico). Globally, the number of excess female deaths from birth to age 24 years was 86 563 (-6059 to 164 000) in 2021, down from 544 636 (453 982 to 633 265) in 1990. INTERPRETATION: The global sex ratio of mortality for all age groups in the first 25 years of life increased between 1990 and 2021. Targeted interventions should focus on countries with outlying sex ratios of mortality to reduce disparities due to discrimination in health care, nutrition, and violence. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development, and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.

Demographic change and urban health: Towards a novel agenda for delivering sustainable and healthy cities for all.

The focus is on the demographic drivers and demographic implications of urban health and wellbeing in towns and cities across the globe. The aim is to identify key linkages between demographic change and urban health - subjects of two largely disparate fields of research and practice - with a view to informing arguments and advocacy for urban health while identifying research gaps and priorities. The core arguments are threefold. First, urban health advocates should express a globalized perspective on demographic processes, encompassing age-structural shifts in addition to population growth and decrease, and acknowledging their uneven spatial distributions within and between urban settings in different contexts. Second, advocates should recognize the dynamic and transformational effects that demographic forces will exert on economic and political systems in all urban settings. While demographic forces underpin the production of (intra)urban inequities in health, they also present opportunities to address those inequities. Third, a demographic perspective may help to extend urban health thinking and intervention beyond a biomedical model of disease, highlighting the need for a multi-generational view of the changing societal bases for urban health, and enjoining significant advances in how interested parties collect, manage, analyse, and use demographic data. Accordingly, opportunities are identified to increase the availability of granular and accurate data to enable evidence-informed action on the demographic/health nexus.

Global Stillbirth Policy Review - Outcomes And Implications Ahead of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Agenda.

BACKGROUND: Globally, data on stillbirth is limited. A call to action has been issued to governments to address the data gap by strengthening national policies and strategies to drive urgent action on stillbirth reduction. This study aims to understand the policy environment for stillbirths to advance stillbirth recording and reporting in data systems. METHODS: A systematic three-step process (survey tool examination, identifying relevant study questions, and reviewing country responses to the survey and national documents) was taken to review country responses to the global 2018-2019 World Health Organization (WHO) Reproductive, Maternal, Neonatal, Child and Adolescent Health (RMNCAH) Policy Survey. Policy Survey responses were reviewed to identify if and how stillbirths were included in national documents. This paper uses descriptive analyses to identify and describe the relationship between multiple variables. RESULTS: Responses from 155 countries to the survey were analysed, and over 800 national policy documents submitted by countries in English reviewed. Fewer than one-fifth of countries have an established stillbirth rate (SBR) target, with higher percentages reported for under-5 (71.0%) and neonatal mortality (68.5%). Two-thirds (65.8%) of countries reported a national maternal death review panel. Less than half (43.9%) of countries have a national policy that requires stillbirths to be reviewed. Two-thirds of countries have a national policy requiring review of neonatal deaths. WHO websites and national health statistics reports are the common data sources for stillbirth estimates. Countries that are signatories to global initiatives on stillbirth reduction have established national targets. Globally, nearly all countries (94.8%) have a national policy that requires every death to be registered. However, 45.5% of reviewed national policy documents made mention of registering stillbirths. Only 5 countries had national policy documents recommending training of health workers in filling out death certificates using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 for stillbirths. CONCLUSION: The current policy environment in countries is not supportive for identifying stillbirths and recording causes of death. This is likely to contribute to slow progress in stillbirth reduction. The paper proposes policy recommendations to make every baby count.

Child mortality estimation: a comparison of UN IGME and IHME estimates of levels and trends in under-five mortality rates and deaths.

BACKGROUND: Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In 2011, estimates were published by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The difference in the U5MR estimates produced by the two research groups was more than 10% and corresponded to more than ten deaths per 1,000 live births for 10% of all countries in 1990 and 20% of all countries in 2010, which can lead to conflicting conclusions with respect to countries' progress. To understand what caused the differences in estimates, we summarised differences in underlying data and modelling approaches used by the two groups, and analysed their effects. METHODS AND FINDINGS: UN IGME and IHME estimation approaches differ with respect to the construction of databases and the pre-processing of data, trend fitting procedures, inclusion and exclusion of data series, and additional adjustment procedures. Large differences in U5MR estimates between the UN IGME and the IHME exist in countries with conflicts or civil unrest, countries with high HIV prevalence, and countries where the underlying data used to derive the estimates were different, especially if the exclusion of data series differed between the two research groups. A decomposition of the differences showed that differences in estimates due to using different data (inclusion of data series and pre-processing of data) are on average larger than the differences due to using different trend fitting methods. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial country-specific differences between UN IGME and IHME estimates for U5MR and the number of under-five deaths exist because of various differences in data and modelling assumptions used. Often differences are illustrative of the lack of reliable data and likely to decrease as more data become available. Improved transparency on methods and data used will help to improve understanding about the drivers of the differences. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Child mortality estimation: accelerated progress in reducing global child mortality, 1990-2010.

Monitoring development indicators has become a central interest of international agencies and countries for tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. In this review, which also provides an introduction to a collection of articles, we describe the methodology used by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to track country-specific changes in the key indicator for Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), the decline of the under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age five, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)). We review how relevant data from civil registration, sample registration, population censuses, and household surveys are compiled and assessed for United Nations member states, and how time series regression models are fitted to all points of acceptable quality to establish the trends in U5MR from which infant and neonatal mortality rates are generally derived. The application of this methodology indicates that, between 1990 and 2010, the global U5MR fell from 88 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, and the annual number of under-five deaths fell from 12.0 to 7.6 million. Although the annual rate of reduction in the U5MR accelerated from 1.9% for the period 1990-2000 to 2.5% for the period 2000-2010, it remains well below the 4.4% annual rate of reduction required to achieve the MDG 4 goal of a two-thirds reduction in U5MR from its 1990 value by 2015. Thus, despite progress in reducing child mortality worldwide, and an encouraging increase in the pace of decline over the last two decades, MDG 4 will not be met without greatly increasing efforts to reduce child deaths.

Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR and NMR from 2020 to 2030 to assess country progress in, and potential for, reaching SDG targets on child survival and the potential under-5 and neonatal deaths over the next decade. METHODS: Levels and trends in under-5 mortality are based on the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database on under-5 mortality, which contains around 18 000 country-year datapoints for 195 countries-nearly 10 000 of those datapoints since 1990. The database includes nationally representative mortality data from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, population censuses, and household surveys. As with previous sets of national UN IGME estimates, a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3) that considers the systematic biases associated with the different data source types was fitted to these data to generate estimates of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality with uncertainty intervals for 1990-2019 for all countries. Levels and trends in the neonatal mortality rate (0-27 days) are modelled separately as the log ratio of the neonatal mortality rate to the under-5 mortality rate using a Bayesian model. Estimated mortality rates are combined with livebirths data to calculate the number of under-5 and neonatal deaths. To assess the regional and global burden of under-5 deaths in the present decade and progress towards SDG targets, we constructed several scenario-based projections of under-5 mortality from 2020 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality trends up to 2030 for each scenario. FINDINGS: The global U5MR decreased by 59% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 56-61) from 93·0 (91·7-94·5) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 37·7 (36·1-40·8) in 2019, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12·5 (12·3-12·7) million in 1990 to 5·2 (5·0-5·6) million in 2019-a 58% (55-60) reduction. The global NMR decreased by 52% (90% UI 48-55) from 36·6 (35·6-37·8) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990, to 17·5 (16·6-19·0) in 2019, and the annual number of global neonatal deaths declined from 5·0 (4·9-5·2) million in 1990, to 2·4 (2·3-2·7) million in 2019, a 51% (47-54) reduction. As of 2019, 122 of 195 countries have achieved the SDG U5MR target, and 20 countries are on track to achieve the target by 2030, while 53 will need to accelerate progress to meet the target by 2030. 116 countries have reached the SDG NMR target with 16 on track, leaving 63 at risk of missing the target. If current trends continue, 48·1 million under-5 deaths are projected to occur between 2020 and 2030, almost half of them projected to occur during the neonatal period. If all countries met the SDG target on under-5 mortality, 11 million under-5 deaths could be averted between 2020 and 2030. INTERPRETATION: As a result of effective global health initiatives, millions of child deaths have been prevented since 1990. However, the task of ending all preventable child deaths is not done and millions more deaths could be averted by meeting international targets. Geographical and economic variation demonstrate the possibility of even lower mortality rates for children under age 5 years and point to the regions and countries with highest mortality rates and in greatest need of resources and action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Global, regional, and national mortality trends in youth aged 15-24 years between 1990 and 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The global health community is devoting considerable attention to adolescents and young people, but risk of death in this population is poorly measured. We aimed to reconstruct global, regional, and national mortality trends for youths aged 15-24 years between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we used all publicly available data on mortality in the age group 15-24 years for 195 countries, as compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. We used nationally representative vital registration data, estimated the completeness of death registration, and extracted mortality rates from surveys with sibling histories, household deaths reported in censuses, and sample registration systems. We used a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model to generate trends in 10q15, the probability that an adolescent aged 15 years would die before reaching age 25 years. This model treats observations of the 10q15 probability as the product of the actual risk of death and an error multiplier that varies depending on the data source. The main outcome that we assessed was the levels of and trends in youth mortality and the global and regional mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. FINDINGS: Globally, the probability of an individual dying between age 15 years and 24 years was 11·2 deaths (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 10·7-12·5) per 1000 youths aged 15 in 2019, which is about 2·5 times less than infant mortality (28·2 deaths [27·2-30·0] by age 1 year per 1000 live births) but is higher than the risk of dying from age 1 to 5 (9·7 deaths [9·1-11·1] per 1000 children aged 1 year). The probability of dying between age 15 years and 24 years declined by 1·4% per year (90% UI 1·1-1·8) between 1990 and 2019, from 17·1 deaths (16·5-18·9) per 1000 in 1990; by contrast with this total decrease of 34% (27-41), under-5 mortality declined by 59% (56-61) in this period. The annual number of deaths declined from 1·7 million (90% UI 1·7-1·9) in 1990 to 1·4 million (1·3-1·5) in 2019. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of deaths increased by 20·8% from 1990 to 2019. Although 18·3% of the population aged 15-24 years were living in sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, the region accounted for 37·9% (90% UI 34·8-41·9) of all worldwide deaths in youth. INTERPRETATION: It is urgent to accelerate progress in reducing youth mortality. Efforts are particularly needed in sub-Saharan Africa, where the burden of mortality is increasingly concentrated. In the future, a growing number of countries will see youth mortality exceeding under-5 mortality if current trends continue. FUNDING: UN Children's Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development.

Patterns and trends in causes of child and adolescent mortality 2000-2016: setting the scene for child health redesign.

The under-5 mortality rate has declined from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 39 per 1000 live births in 2018. This improvement in child survival warrants an examination of age-specific trends and causes of death over time and across regions and an extension of the survival focus to older children and adolescents. We examine patterns and trends in mortality for neonates, postneonatal infants, young children, older children, young adolescents and older adolescents from 2000 to 2016. Levels and trends in causes of death for children and adolescents under 20 years of age are based on United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation for all-cause mortality, the Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation group for cause of death among children under-5 and WHO Global Health Estimates for 5-19 year-olds. From 2000 to 2016, the proportion of deaths in young children aged 1-4 years declined in most regions while neonatal deaths became over 25% of all deaths under 20 years in all regions and over 50% of all under-5 deaths in all regions except for sub-Saharan Africa which remains the region with the highest under-5 mortality in the world. Although these estimates have great variability at the country level, the overall regional patterns show that mortality in children under the age of 5 is increasingly concentrated in the neonatal period and in some regions, in older adolescents. The leading causes of disease for children under-5 remain preterm birth and infectious diseases, pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria. For older children and adolescents, injuries become important causes of death as do interpersonal violence and self-harm. Causes of death vary by region.