Body size predicts the rate of contemporary morphological change in birds.

Variation in evolutionary rates among species is a defining characteristic of the tree of life and may be an important predictor of species' capacities to adapt to rapid environmental change. It is broadly assumed that generation length is an important determinant of microevolutionary rates, and body size is often used as a proxy for generation length. However, body size has myriad biological correlates that could affect evolutionary rates independently from generation length. We leverage two large, independently collected datasets on recent morphological change in birds (52 migratory species breeding in North America and 77 South American resident species) to test how body size and generation length are related to the rates of contemporary morphological change. Both datasets show that birds have declined in body size and increased in wing length over the past 40 y. We found, in both systems, a consistent pattern wherein smaller species declined proportionally faster in body size and increased proportionally faster in wing length. By contrast, generation length explained less variation in evolutionary rates than did body size. Although the mechanisms warrant further investigation, our study demonstrates that body size is an important predictor of contemporary variation in morphological rates of change. Given the correlations between body size and a breadth of morphological, physiological, and ecological traits predicted to mediate phenotypic responses to environmental change, the relationship between body size and rates of phenotypic change should be considered when testing hypotheses about variation in adaptive responses to climate change.

Museomics Dissects the Genetic Basis for Adaptive Seasonal Coloration in the Least Weasel.

Dissecting the link between genetic variation and adaptive phenotypes provides outstanding opportunities to understand fundamental evolutionary processes. Here, we use a museomics approach to investigate the genetic basis and evolution of winter coat coloration morphs in least weasels (Mustela nivalis), a repeated adaptation for camouflage in mammals with seasonal pelage color moults across regions with varying winter snow. Whole-genome sequence data were obtained from biological collections and mapped onto a newly assembled reference genome for the species. Sampling represented two replicate transition zones between nivalis and vulgaris coloration morphs in Europe, which typically develop white or brown winter coats, respectively. Population analyses showed that the morph distribution across transition zones is not a by-product of historical structure. Association scans linked a 200-kb genomic region to coloration morph, which was validated by genotyping museum specimens from intermorph experimental crosses. Genotyping the wild populations narrowed down the association to pigmentation gene MC1R and pinpointed a candidate amino acid change cosegregating with coloration morph. This polymorphism replaces an ancestral leucine residue by lysine at the start of the first extracellular loop of the protein in the vulgaris morph. A selective sweep signature overlapped the association region in vulgaris, suggesting that past adaptation favored winter-brown morphs and can anchor future adaptive responses to decreasing winter snow. Using biological collections as valuable resources to study natural adaptations, our study showed a new evolutionary route generating winter color variation in mammals and that seasonal camouflage can be modulated by changes at single key genes.

Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species.

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.

Colour moult phenology and camouflage mismatch in polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes.

Species that seasonally moult from brown to white to match snowy backgrounds become conspicuous and experience increased predation risk as snow cover duration declines. Long-term adaptation to camouflage mismatch in a changing climate might occur through phenotypic plasticity in colour moult phenology and or evolutionary shifts in moult rate or timing. Also, adaptation may include evolutionary shifts towards winter brown phenotypes that forgo the winter white moult. Most studies of these processes have occurred in winter white populations, with little attention to polymorphic populations with sympatric winter brown and winter white morphs. Here, we used remote camera traps to record moult phenology and mismatch in two polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes in Sweden over 2 years. We found that the colder, more northern population moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring. Next, foxes moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring during colder and snowier years. Finally, white foxes experienced relatively low camouflage mismatch while blue foxes were mismatched against snowy backgrounds most of the autumn through the spring. Because the brown-on-white mismatch imposes no evident costs, we predict that as snow duration decreases, increasing blue morph frequencies might help facilitate species persistence.

Temperature, size and developmental plasticity in birds.

As temperatures increase, there is growing evidence that species across much of the tree of life are getting smaller. These climate change-driven size reductions are often interpreted as a temporal analogue of the observation that individuals within a species tend to be smaller in the warmer parts of the species' range. For ectotherms, there has been a broad effort to understand the role of developmental plasticity in temperature-size relationships, but in endotherms, this mechanism has received relatively little attention in favour of selection-based explanations. We review the evidence for a role of developmental plasticity in warming-driven size reductions in birds and highlight insulin-like growth factors as a potential mechanism underlying plastic responses to temperature in endotherms. We find that, as with ectotherms, changes in temperature during development can result in shifts in body size in birds, with size reductions associated with warmer temperatures being the most frequent association. This suggests developmental plasticity may be an important, but largely overlooked, mechanism underlying warming-driven size reductions in endotherms. Plasticity and natural selection have very different constraining forces, thus understanding the mechanism linking temperature and body size in endotherms has broad implications for predicting future impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Widespread shifts in bird migration phenology are decoupled from parallel shifts in morphology.

Advancements in phenology and changes in morphology, including body size reductions, are among the most commonly described responses to globally warming temperatures. Although these dynamics are routinely explored independently, the relationships among them and how their interactions facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change are poorly understood. In migratory species, advancing phenology may impose selection on morphological traits to increase migration speed. Advancing spring phenology might also expose species to cooler temperatures during the breeding season, potentially mitigating the effect of a warming global environment on body size. We use a dataset of birds that died after colliding with buildings in Chicago, IL to test whether changes in migration phenology are related to documented declines in body size and increases in wing length in 52 North American migratory bird species between 1978 and 2016. For each species, we estimate temporal trends in morphology and changes in the timing of migration. We then test for associations between species-specific rates of phenological and morphological changes while assessing the potential effects of migratory distance and breeding latitude. We show that spring migration through Chicago has advanced while the timing of fall migration has broadened as a result of early fall migrants advancing their migrations and late migrants delaying their migrations. Within species, we found that longer wing length was linked to earlier spring migration within years. However, we found no evidence that rates of phenological change across years, or migratory distance and breeding latitude, are predictive of rates of concurrent changes in morphological traits. These findings suggest that biotic responses to climate change are highly multidimensional and the extent to which those responses interact and influence adaptation to climate change requires careful examination.

Balancing selection and drift in a polymorphic salamander metapopulation.

Understanding how genetic variation is maintained in a metapopulation is a longstanding problem in evolutionary biology. Historical resurveys of polymorphisms have offered efficient insights about evolutionary mechanisms, but are often conducted on single, large populations, neglecting the more comprehensive view afforded by considering all populations in a metapopulation. Here, we resurveyed a metapopulation of spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) to understand the evolutionary drivers of frequency variation in an egg mass colour polymorphism. We found that this metapopulation was demographically, phenotypically and environmentally stable over the last three decades. However, further analysis revealed evidence for two modes of evolution in this metapopulation-genetic drift and balancing selection. Although we cannot identify the balancing mechanism from these data, our findings present a clear view of contemporary evolution in colour morph frequency and demonstrate the importance of metapopulation-scale studies for capturing a broad range of evolutionary dynamics.

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds.

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.

Lack of phenological shift leads to increased camouflage mismatch in mountain hares.

Understanding whether organisms will be able to adapt to human-induced stressors currently endangering their existence is an urgent priority. Globally, multiple species moult from a dark summer to white winter coat to maintain camouflage against snowy landscapes. Decreasing snow cover duration owing to climate change is increasing mismatch in seasonal camouflage. To directly test for adaptive responses to recent changes in snow cover, we repeated historical (1950s) field studies of moult phenology in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in Scotland. We found little evidence that population moult phenology has shifted to align seasonal coat colour with shorter snow seasons, or that phenotypic plasticity prevented increases in camouflage mismatch. The lack of responses resulted in 35 additional days of mismatch between 1950 and 2016. We emphasize the potential role of weak directional selection pressure and low genetic variability in shaping the scope for adaptive responses to anthropogenic stressors.

Snow-mediated plasticity does not prevent camouflage mismatch.

Global reduction in snow cover duration is one of the most consistent and widespread climate change outcomes. Declining snow duration has severe negative consequences for diverse taxa including seasonally color molting species, which rely on snow for camouflage. However, phenotypic plasticity may facilitate adaptation to reduced snow duration. Plastic responses could occur in the color molt phenology or through behavior that minimizes coat color mismatch or its consequences. We quantified molt phenology of 200 wild snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), and measured microhabitat choice and local snow cover. Similar to other studies, we found that hares did not show behavioral plasticity to minimize coat color mismatch via background matching; instead they preferred colder, snow free areas regardless of their coat color. Furthermore, hares did not behaviorally mitigate the negative consequences of mismatch by choosing resting sites with denser vegetation cover when mismatched. Importantly, we demonstrated plasticity in the initiation and the rate of the molt and established the direct effect of snow on molt phenology; greater snow cover was associated with whiter hares and this association was not due to whiter hares preferring snowier areas. However, despite the observed snow-mediated plasticity in molt phenology, camouflage mismatch with white hares on brown snowless ground persisted and was more frequent during early snowmelt. Thus, we find no evidence that phenotypic plasticity in snowshoe hares is sufficient to facilitate adaptive rescue to camouflage mismatch under climate change.

High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change.

Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration.

Most examples of seasonal mismatches in phenology span multiple trophic levels, with timing of animal reproduction, hibernation, or migration becoming detached from peak food supply. The consequences of such mismatches are difficult to link to specific future climate change scenarios because the responses across trophic levels have complex underlying climate drivers often confounded by other stressors. In contrast, seasonal coat color polyphenism creating camouflage against snow is a direct and potentially severe type of seasonal mismatch if crypsis becomes compromised by the animal being white when snow is absent. It is unknown whether plasticity in the initiation or rate of coat color change will be able to reduce mismatch between the seasonal coat color and an increasingly snow-free background. We find that natural populations of snowshoe hares exposed to 3 y of widely varying snowpack have plasticity in the rate of the spring white-to-brown molt, but not in either the initiation dates of color change or the rate of the fall brown-to-white molt. Using an ensemble of locally downscaled climate projections, we also show that annual average duration of snowpack is forecast to decrease by 29-35 d by midcentury and 40-69 d by the end of the century. Without evolution in coat color phenology, the reduced snow duration will increase the number of days that white hares will be mismatched on a snowless background by four- to eightfold by the end of the century. This novel and visually compelling climate change-induced stressor likely applies to >9 widely distributed mammals with seasonal coat color.

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage.

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

SNAPSHOT USA 2020: A second coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Managing wildlife populations in the face of global change requires regular data on the abundance and distribution of wild animals, but acquiring these over appropriate spatial scales in a sustainable way has proven challenging. Here we present the data from Snapshot USA 2020, a second annual national mammal survey of the USA. This project involved 152 scientists setting camera traps in a standardized protocol at 1485 locations across 103 arrays in 43 states for a total of 52,710 trap-nights of survey effort. Most (58) of these arrays were also sampled during the same months (September and October) in 2019, providing a direct comparison of animal populations in 2 years that includes data from both during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. All data were managed by the eMammal system, with all species identifications checked by at least two reviewers. In total, we recorded 117,415 detections of 78 species of wild mammals, 9236 detections of at least 43 species of birds, 15,851 detections of six domestic animals and 23,825 detections of humans or their vehicles. Spatial differences across arrays explained more variation in the relative abundance than temporal variation across years for all 38 species modeled, although there are examples of significant site-level differences among years for many species. Temporal results show how species allocate their time and can be used to study species interactions, including between humans and wildlife. These data provide a snapshot of the mammal community of the USA for 2020 and will be useful for exploring the drivers of spatial and temporal changes in relative abundance and distribution, and the impacts of species interactions on daily activity patterns. There are no copyright restrictions, and please cite this paper when using these data, or a subset of these data, for publication.

Noninvasive measures of physiological stress are confounded by exposure.

Glucocorticoids and glucocorticoid metabolites are increasingly used to index physiological stress in wildlife. Although feces is often abundant and can be collected noninvasively, exposure to biotic and abiotic elements may influence fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations, leading to inaccurate conclusions regarding wildlife physiological stress. Using captive snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and simulated environmental conditions, we evaluated how different realistic field conditions and temporal sampling constraints might influence FGM concentrations using an 11-oxoetiocholanolone-enzyme immunoassay. We quantified how fecal pellet age (i.e., 0-6 days), variable summer temperatures, and precipitation affected FGM concentrations. Fecal pellet age had a strong effect on FGM concentrations (ßAge = 0.395, s.d. = 0.085; ß2Age = -0.061, s.d. = 0.012), which were lowest at the beginning and end of our exposure period (e.g., meanday6 = 37.7 ng/mg) and typically highest in the middle (meanday3 = 51.8 ng/mg). The effect of fecal pellet age on FGM concentrations varied across treatments with warm-dry and cool-wet conditions resulting in more variable FGM concentrations relative to control samples. Given the confounding effects of exposure and environmental conditions, if fresh fecal pellet collection is not an option, we encourage researchers to develop a temporally consistent sampling protocol to ensure all samples are exposed to similar environmental conditions.

Function and underlying mechanisms of seasonal colour moulting in mammals and birds: what keeps them changing in a warming world?

Animals that occupy temperate and polar regions have specialized traits that help them survive in harsh, highly seasonal environments. One particularly important adaptation is seasonal coat colour (SCC) moulting. Over 20 species of birds and mammals distributed across the northern hemisphere undergo complete, biannual colour change from brown in the summer to completely white in the winter. But as climate change decreases duration of snow cover, seasonally winter white species (including the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus and willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus) become highly contrasted against dark snowless backgrounds. The negative consequences of camouflage mismatch and adaptive potential is of high interest for conservation. Here we provide the first comprehensive review across birds and mammals of the adaptive value and mechanisms underpinning SCC moulting. We found that across species, the main function of SCC moults is seasonal camouflage against snow, and photoperiod is the main driver of the moult phenology. Next, although many underlying mechanisms remain unclear, mammalian species share similarities in some aspects of hair growth, neuroendocrine control, and the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on moult phenology. The underlying basis of SCC moults in birds is less understood and differs from mammals in several aspects. Lastly, our synthesis suggests that due to limited plasticity in SCC moulting, evolutionary adaptation will be necessary to mediate future camouflage mismatch and a detailed understanding of the SCC moulting will be needed to manage populations effectively under climate change.

Winter color polymorphisms identify global hot spots for evolutionary rescue from climate change.

Maintenance of biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate will depend on the efficacy of evolutionary rescue, whereby population declines due to abrupt environmental change are reversed by shifts in genetically driven adaptive traits. However, a lack of traits known to be under direct selection by anthropogenic climate change has limited the incorporation of evolutionary processes into global conservation efforts. In 21 vertebrate species, some individuals undergo a seasonal color molt from summer brown to winter white as camouflage against snow, whereas other individuals remain brown. Seasonal snow duration is decreasing globally, and fitness is lower for winter white animals on snowless backgrounds. Based on 2713 georeferenced samples of known winter coat color-from eight species across trophic levels-we identify environmentally driven clinal gradients in winter coat color, including polymorphic zones where winter brown and white morphs co-occur. These polymorphic zones, underrepresented by existing global protected area networks, indicate hot spots for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate.